A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[moonslav59]

Betts, Benintendi and JDM one cause of the lack of early scoring in support of our starters. Maybe it's just an impression but we don't tend to jump the opposing pitcher early on.

 

The Devers & Vaz gains should just about offset the declines by JD & Betts. The gain by Bogey offsets the decline by Beni.

 

Moreland's gain is not helping us now that he's on the IL, but he and Leon should just about offset the declines by JBJ & Nunez.

 

To me, it's not been about OPS. It's been about timely hitting.

 

2018> 2019

 

OPS

.792>.787

 

Runs/gm

5.4>5.4

 

High Leverage

.854>.822

 

Late & Close

.786>.835

 

RISP

.872>.786

 

2 outs, RISP

.840>.801

 

Tie Game

.794>.783

 

Within 1 Run

.779> .772

[moonslav59]

Chapman with the 3 run HR in the bottom of the ninth with 2 outs to beat the Rays 5-4.

 

Rays score 4 in 9th!

 

Sox gain a half on the Rays and drop a half on the Yanks who won.

 

We're now just 3 down in the loss column to TB.

 

[Maxbialystock]

Sox are clearly good enough make the postseason, but catching the Yankees is daunting.

[OH FOY]

The Orioles are the worst team in all of baseball, and Toronto is 3rd worst, as far as winning percentage. My feeling is the top 3 teams in our division that does not take advantage of playing these bums, might be the difference in our division.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Orioles are the worst team in all of baseball, and Toronto is 3rd worst, as far as winning percentage. My feeling is the top 3 teams in our division that does not take advantage of playing these bums, might be the difference in our division.

 

The hay that’s been made to this point is the big difference in the division. I’d agree if we were all locked up together, but 8 games in the L column is a lot to make up for. This Yankee team reminds me a lot of our title teams. A good mix of power and contact, a good but not great rotation and a lock down pen. I think the fact that we are getting guys back now is the difference. You’re 8 games back of a team that lost 3 of its perennial All Star hitters for 50+ games and also lost a guy who’s been top 10 in the CY two years running for every game thus far. German, who’s got the second highest win total in the majors, is throwing again and may be back in early July. Severino is throwing and is a week away from mound work. He’s looking like a late July return. JMont looks like he’s gonna be a bigger wild card with shoulder inflammation. But so be it. We also are in the market for a starter and not a Mike Fiers type, a Max Scherzer type. Our offense and pen will allow us to avoid long losing streaks. You’re gonna have to beat us to get back at us barring another rash of injuries.

[Bellhorn04]

Sox are clearly good enough make the postseason, but catching the Yankees is daunting.

 

We play the Yankees 14 more times.

 

8 in Boston

4 in New York

2 in Jolly Old England (as the home team)

[Bellhorn04]

We also are in the market for a starter and not a Mike Fiers type, a Max Scherzer type.

 

A 'Max Scherzer type', good one. There's one Max Scherzer. If you get him, that would be serious indeed.

[OH FOY]

Yanks play the Astros, while we play Toronto, Yanks won last night, but Astros are capable of taking next 3. Beat Toronto, and gain 3 games easy. Even a split you gain 2 games, in a couple of days. Its who the other team is playing is when you take advantage of playing these bad teams.

Losing to Toronto, is not good while these 2 teams are playing each other.

Edited June 21, 2019 by OH FOY!

[notin]

A 'Max Scherzer type', good one. There's one Max Scherzer. If you get him, that would be serious indeed.

 

They can take on the salary, but can the Yankees still meet the asking price?

[OH FOY]

Nationals are 3.5 out of last Wildcard. So that one is on hold I would think at the moment. If he does go, it will be a salary dump anyway.

Who the hell would pay anybody 42 million a year, in any sport. Even if some of it is deferred.

Looking at his salary towards the Luxury Tax it is, 28,689,376.

With a half a year gone Yanks can easily go for him, if Nationals want to dump salary. Nationals are still on the hook for signing bonus, and deferred payments.

Edited June 21, 2019 by OH FOY!

[Bellhorn04]

They can take on the salary, but can the Yankees still meet the asking price?

 

I can't answer the part about the asking price, but based on what we've seen, the money might be the bigger issue.

 

But maybe Cash is pleading for it with Hal right now...

[notin]

I can't answer the part about the asking price, but based on what we've seen, the money might be the bigger issue.

 

But maybe Cash is pleading for it with Hal right now...

 

It would be funny taking on Encarnacion and benching $13mill worth of Brett Gardner filled their budget to the point where they couldn’t afford Scherzer.

 

I would imagine any deal for Scherzer would inclde the last few months of Brett Gardner...

[jacksonianmarch]

I can't answer the part about the asking price, but based on what we've seen, the money might be the bigger issue.

 

But maybe Cash is pleading for it with Hal right now...

 

We can afford it, but Cash doesn’t want to go past that final hurdle. We’re at $230 mil right now. With Scherzer making $30 mil AAV (yes, some is deferred, but it counts to AAV) we’d have to wait til around the break to ensure we get below the cap.

 

Yes, there is only one Scherzer, but we’ve got the parts for a trade. While the national publications aren’t terribly high on our cream of our system, I can guarantee you we have enough if Max hits the market. The big question is, do we match up? We’ve got an OFer who’s lead the package, but the Nats have two OFers already who aren’t going anywhere in Robles and Soto. We’ve got a SS in Estrada, but they’ve got Turner. We have a ton of minor league pitching depth, but outside of an injured Loaisiga and a trending up Garcia, none are headliners right now (maybe Abreu now that he’s healthy).

 

I want us to exhaust our abilities on a top end starter. I don’t want Bumgarner mostly due to acquisition cost. He’s a #3 or 4. He’d be fine if we don’t have anyone else, but I’m not sending any premium prospects for him.

 

The bottom line is this. We have 14 games left with each other. We are facing the Astros while they’re scuffling and without Springer. We also miss Cole and we are at home, where we’ve been nails against them in the past. I doubt we all of a sudden drop 3 in a row. Maybe 1-2, probably 2-1. And it’s not like you guys are sweeping teams and running on all cylinders. Offense and reasonable pitching does very well in the regular season. The postseason is where aces shine. We need ours back and maybe another one, but you’re gonna need a rash of injuries to catch us in the regular season.

[Slasher9]

A 'Max Scherzer type', good one. There's one Max Scherzer. If you get him, that would be serious indeed.

 

Something tells me that whomever they get jacksonianmarch will find a way to state that they are better then max

[notin]

Something tells me that whomever they get jacksonianmarch will find a way to state that they are better then max

 

 

... and that’s why the Yankees acquired Jordan Lyles...

[jacksonianmarch]

We are getting Luis Severino back, so there’s that. He’s also been nails the first four months of the last two seasons. Maybe this plan gets us vintage Luis for the POs?

[OH FOY]

Sportstrac has one salary, and Baseball Reference has another. Also see another thing after 2019 he can block any trade.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/washington-nationals/max-scherzer-5166/

Edited June 21, 2019 by OH FOY!

[jacksonianmarch]

For lux tax it’s all AAV of contract. He got a 7 year $210 mil contract. Real simple, it’s a $30 mil AAV

[notin]

 

I want us to exhaust our abilities on a top end starter. I don’t want Bumgarner mostly due to acquisition cost. He’s a #3 or 4. He’d be fine if we don’t have anyone else, but I’m not sending any premium prospects for him.

 

The bottom line is this. We have 14 games left with each other. We are facing the Astros while they’re scuffling and without Springer. We also miss Cole and we are at home, where we’ve been nails against them in the past. I doubt we all of a sudden drop 3 in a row. Maybe 1-2, probably 2-1. And it’s not like you guys are sweeping teams and running on all cylinders. Offense and reasonable pitching does very well in the regular season. The postseason is where aces shine. We need ours back and maybe another one, but you’re gonna need a rash of injuries to catch us in the regular season.

 

Do you want to exhaust those possibilities if the Nationals insist on Gleyber Torres? Holding Torres took you out of the running for Cole. Sometimes with these mega-star trades, the other team can focus on one key player and simply not budge on his inclusion.

 

Would you deal Torres (along with, say, Florial and Garcia) for Scherzer?

[jacksonianmarch]

I wouldn’t deal Torres straight up for Scherzer. No way. I’m talking all minor league resources.

 

Torres is on pace for 35HR and over 4WAR as a 22 yr old. He goes nowhere

[kenmeister]

Does anybody know what's the latest with Eovaldi? Who will be back first Eovaldi or Wright? Also what's the latest on Pedroia?

[jacksonianmarch]

Wright will be back first. Eovaldi has played catch but hasn’t gone back on the mound since his arm started barking.

[Kimmi]

Betts, Benintendi and JDM one cause of the lack of early scoring in support of our starters. Maybe it's just an impression but we don't tend to jump the opposing pitcher early on.

 

I am under the same impression. There seems to have been far too many games when the top 3 go quietly in order in the first inning.

[notin]

I wouldn’t deal Torres straight up for Scherzer. No way. I’m talking all minor league resources.

 

Torres is on pace for 35HR and over 4WAR as a 22 yr old. He goes nowhere

 

That’s the problem with affordable and controllable star players. Sometimes other GMs just focus on them, like Lunhow did.

 

To give up a season that is far from over and a perennial Cy Young candidate, it wouldn’t surprise me if Rizzo wanted a lot more than your A-Ball stars.

 

If so, maybe a Mike Minor/Clint Frazier swap could happen...

[Kimmi]

We play the Yankees 14 more times.

 

8 in Boston

4 in New York

2 in Jolly Old England (as the home team)

 

A big crock of you know what.

[jacksonianmarch]

Frazier isn’t going for a rental. I’d love to get Minor. But Frazier is more than a prospect. He’s a bonafide big league power hitter. Estrada also hit well in his big league cameo. These guys don’t qualify as prospects anymore, but they’re big league players. If they want Loaisiga too, then they’ll get three guys who can go right to the bigs on day 1.

[Bellhorn04]

For lux tax it’s all AAV of contract. He got a 7 year $210 mil contract. Real simple, it’s a $30 mil AAV

 

Cot's shows Max's AAV as 28,689,376. The current CBA must have had a provision to re-value AAV's for contracts with deferred money.

[notin]

Frazier isn’t going for a rental. I’d love to get Minor. But Frazier is more than a prospect. He’s a bonafide big league power hitter. Estrada also hit well in his big league cameo. These guys don’t qualify as prospects anymore, but they’re big league players. If they want Loaisiga too, then they’ll get three guys who can go right to the bigs on day 1.

 

 

Minor is under contract for 2020. He’s not a rental...

[Bellhorn04]

A big crock of you know what.

 

We're growing the game, Kimmi!

[notin]

We're growing the game, Kimmi!

 

 

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