A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[jacksonianmarch]

You’re two games back of a WC spot. It’s not a lost cause yet. If you fall behind Oakland by the time they have their usual July- Oct run, then you’re in trouble

[Kimmi]

Kimmi, Projections are like potential. Great to have but at some point , one has to actualize, or others need to fail more miserably. To date, the Red Sox have shown only brief glimpses of operating as a strong unit on all 3 aspects of the game. If you have it, show it once in a while. Play .500 all June, and you'll still have a better than 50-50 chance of the play in game.

 

I know that projections mean very little as opposed to what actually happens. However, what the projections do show us is that the Red Sox should not be this bad, and that things should get much better.

 

That's reason to be optimistic.

[Kimmi]

Another sad night for the Sox. We keep missing chances- over and over again.

 

When Sandy Leon is the only guy getting key hits, you know something is going on.

 

Nobody is picking it up.

 

I've been waiting and waiting. We got a little tease a couple weeks back, but then this.

 

I'm not giving up by a long shot, but this is disgusting.

 

2014 all over again.

 

I read this little tidbit a few minutes ago:

 

At 29-29, the Sox are 9.5 G back in the AL East on June 1.

 

In 2015, they weren't 9.5 back until June 20.

 

In 2014, they weren't 9.5 back until June 6.

 

Even in the -- gulp -- Bobby Valentine year, they weren't 9.5 back until July 8.

[Kimmi]

I think you have been overly optimistic. Look at our table setters and what they have done of late. Look at JDM. We relied on those guys last year to produce and they are way off their games so far . We know we have problems in other areas but to have problems scoring with runners in scoring poosition, striking out at a high rate, and only having a couple guys producing at any time is a major weakness. This season is close to a lost cause and we are only in June. There aren't any easy answers other than the club seems to need motivation and it isn't happening. Where will it come from, Cora?

 

Mookie, JD, and Beni have been extremely frustrating to watch. Some regression from Mookie and JD was not unexpected, but more than the overall numbers, they just don't seem to be able to get the key hit. There has been a lot of criticism of the bottom of the order, but to me, it seems like those three are more the reason that the offense looks so listless at times.

[Kimmi]

You’re two games back of a WC spot. It’s not a lost cause yet. If you fall behind Oakland by the time they have their usual July- Oct run, then you’re in trouble

 

Don't act like you have the division wrapped up on June 2.

 

And quit being so obnoxious.

[MADSTORK]

update 12 16 vs .500 better Teams

[dgalehouse]

The problem started in the off season with the complacent, stand pat attitude. Actually, we didn't even stand pat . We were the only contender that got weaker . I pointed this out at the time , but was shouted down by our panel of experts. Then came the lackadaisical spring training. I pointed that out also , but was again overruled by the panel of like- minded experts . They told me it was " meaningless " and the Sox would be ready to rumble when the bell rang . Now here we are in June . A .500 record and 10 games behind the Yankees B team . Not to worry. I'm still wrong and the panel is still right . It might be time for me to quit .

[Swiharts Ghost]

Mookie, JD, and Beni have been extremely frustrating to watch. Some regression from Mookie and JD was not unexpected, but more than the overall numbers, they just don't seem to be able to get the key hit. There has been a lot of criticism of the bottom of the order, but to me, it seems like those three are more the reason that the offense looks so listless at times.

Fantastic post

[moonslav59]

I think you have been overly optimistic. Look at our table setters and what they have done of late. Look at JDM. We relied on those guys last year to produce and they are way off their games so far . We know we have problems in other areas but to have problems scoring with runners in scoring poosition, striking out at a high rate, and only having a couple guys producing at any time is a major weakness. This season is close to a lost cause and we are only in June. There aren't any easy answers other than the club seems to need motivation and it isn't happening. Where will it come from, Cora?

 

I'm not sure where it will come from, of "it" ever will come.

 

I am still optimistic.

 

While things did come together last year, I don't think it was a fluke. We expected some regression from JD and Betts after their exceptional 2019 seasons, but I felt others, like Vaz, Leon, JBJ and Devers might pick up the slack and then some. For the most part, they have done better, but with Beni and our SP'ers struggling, here we are- a .500 club after 60 games.

 

As bad as we've played, we are still in the race, and we have some budget space to make some additions. Maybe we need a trade to shake things up. Maybe it will just come on its own. Maybe it will never come. I'm staying hopeful, but it's getting harder every day.

[S5Dewey]

 

And quit being so obnoxious.

 

He can't help it. He's a Yankees fan and it's inbred.

 

He reminds of of a bumper sticker I once saw: "I don't dislike like the Yankees. It's their obnoxious fans that I hate".

 

But I will admit that there have been a few Yankees players I developed an intense dislike for without even meeting them. To paraprhase Mr. Subliminal "One of them is still playingBrettGardner". You figure out who.

[moonslav59]

Mookie, JD, and Beni have been extremely frustrating to watch. Some regression from Mookie and JD was not unexpected, but more than the overall numbers, they just don't seem to be able to get the key hit. There has been a lot of criticism of the bottom of the order, but to me, it seems like those three are more the reason that the offense looks so listless at times.

 

We got guys getting 2-3 hits almosr every game, but they are always spread out, never bunched together, and never when we need them most.

 

I don't blame the line-up, because there's no rhyme or reason to who will hit well, and who won't.

 

Let's compare 2017 OPS to 2019:

 

2019 Player 2017 (+ or -)

.896 Devers .819 (+.077)

.890 JD M n/a (Young .709)

.888 Bogey .746 (+.142)

.875 Betts .803 (+.072)

.870 Moreland .769 (+.101)

.853 Chavis n/a (Pedey .760)

.834 Vaz .735 (+.099)

.773 Beni .776 (-.003)

.612 JBJ .726 (-.112)

.585 Leon .644 (-.059)

.493 Nunez .892 (-.399)

.404 Holt .548 (-.144)

 

I keep hearing we are regressing to our norm, but if 2017 was "the norm", most key players are doing better than 2017- a year we won the division.

 

It's timely hitting and our pitchers, and not just the pen, that has kept us down.

 

Our starters improved over the first 2-3 weeks, but they are still far away from where they were last year or 2017.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[dgalehouse]

He can't help it. He's a Yankees fan and it's inbred.

 

He reminds of of a bumper sticker I once saw: "I don't dislike like the Yankees. It's their obnoxious fans that I hate".

 

But I will admit that there have been a few Yankees players I developed an intense dislike for without even meeting them. To paraprhase Mr. Subliminal "One of them is still playingBrettGardner". You figure out who.

 

Many years ago , when I was young , and the Yankees were enjoying one of their dynasties, I developed a dislike for Yankee fans . This was due to their boasting , bragging and generally superior attitude . It wasn't enough to just have the best team , they claimed to have the best of everything. Regrettably, some Sox fans have now developed that same smug attitude. Maybe that is what success does to you . Maybe it is just human nature.

[moonslav59]

Many years ago , when I was young , and the Yankees were enjoying one of their dynasties, I developed a dislike for Yankee fans . This was due to their boasting , bragging and generally superior attitude . It wasn't enough to just have the best team , they claimed to have the best of everything. Regrettably, some Sox fans have now developed that same smug attitude. Maybe that is what success does to you . Maybe it is just human nature.

 

Human nature.

[vegasbob]

The problem started in the off season with the complacent, stand pat attitude. Actually, we didn't even stand pat . We were the only contender that got weaker . I pointed this out at the time , but was shouted down by our panel of experts. Then came the lackadaisical spring training. I pointed that out also , but was again overruled by the panel of like- minded experts . They told me it was " meaningless " and the Sox would be ready to rumble when the bell rang . Now here we are in June . A .500 record and 10 games behind the Yankees B team . Not to worry. I'm still wrong and the panel is still right . It might be time for me to quit .

 

The optimists were in command when the evidence was showing up in Ft. Myers. The preparation was uninspiring and the results to date are likewise. Don't quit. Just keep saying what you see, and of course, what the metrics support.

[moonslav59]

SP'er ERA from 2017 to 2019:

 

Starter 2017>2018>2019 (May 2019)

 

Sale 2.90> 2.11> 4.35 (2.82)

Price 3.38> 3.59> 2.83 (1.53)

Porc. 4.65> 4.28> 4.76 (3.34)

ERod 4.19> 3.82> 5.04 (3.90)

5th SP:

Pom 3.32> Eov 3.33/Johnson 4.17> Velaz. 5.97 (7.85)

 

 

 

[notin]

Don't act like you have the division wrapped up on June 2.

 

And quit being so obnoxious.

 

 

Maybe we need to cut the Yankee fan some slack. They haven’t won a title in 10 years. As Red Sox fans, we’ve only had one drought that long in team history...

[moonslav59]

2017-2019 Pen and SP'ers

 

ERA 2017>2018>2019

 

SP 4.06> 3.77> 4.76

 

RP 3.15> 3.72> 4.02

 

[Bellhorn04]

The problem started in the off season with the complacent, stand pat attitude. Actually, we didn't even stand pat . We were the only contender that got weaker . I pointed this out at the time , but was shouted down by our panel of experts. Then came the lackadaisical spring training. I pointed that out also , but was again overruled by the panel of like- minded experts . They told me it was " meaningless " and the Sox would be ready to rumble when the bell rang . Now here we are in June . A .500 record and 10 games behind the Yankees B team . Not to worry. I'm still wrong and the panel is still right . It might be time for me to quit .

 

You've developed quite a persecution complex, Denny.

 

The stuff about 'panel of experts' is kind of pathetic.

 

I suppose you're talking about me, moonslav, Kimmi and notin, maybe others. Apparently you don't notice that we frequently disagree with each other. notin was actually fully in agreement with you about not addressing the bullpen in the off-season.

[moonslav59]

You've developed quite a persecution complex, Denny.

 

The stuff about 'panel of experts' is kind of pathetic.

 

I suppose you're talking about me, moonslav, Kimmi and notin, maybe others. Apparently you don't notice that we frequently disagree with each other. notin was actually fully in agreement with you about not addressing the bullpen in the off-season.

 

I'd have rather added a pen arm than Pearce, but I undertsnad why we signed him: Moreland on the IL again was a good reason.

[moonslav59]

Let's not forget that before these 4 straight losses, we had gone 18-8, including losing 2 out of 3 to the Astros while outscoring them, losing an 11 inning game to Colorado 5-4, and losing 6 of those 8 games by just 1-2 runs.

 

If we go 18-8 again, starting now, how will this board react?

[Bellhorn04]

Let's not forget that before these 4 straight losses, we had gone 18-8, including losing 2 out of 3 to the Astros while outscoring them, losing an 11 inning game to Colorado 5-4, and losing 6 of those 8 games by just 1-2 runs.

 

If we go 18-8 again, starting now, how will this board react?

 

Well, I do understand folks not being happy about being 9.5 behind the Yankees on June 1.

[moonslav59]

Well, I do understand folks not being happy about being 9.5 behind the Yankees on June 1.

 

Me too, and I'm pissed off, too. I guess I'm just not as reactionary as some.

[Bellhorn04]

Me too, and I'm pissed off, too. I guess I'm just not as reactionary as some.

 

There will always be over-reactors. You're certainly not one.

[moonslav59]

There will always be over-reactors. You're certainly not one.

 

I'm not trying to imply that I am better than anyone else for not being so reactionary, but if some posters had their way, we'd have traded everyone on the team during or right after a long slump.

[dgalehouse]

You've developed quite a persecution complex, Denny.

 

The stuff about 'panel of experts' is kind of pathetic.

 

I suppose you're talking about me, moonslav, Kimmi and notin, maybe others. Apparently you don't notice that we frequently disagree with each other. notin was actually fully in agreement with you about not addressing the bullpen in the off-season.

 

I don't have a persecution complex at all . Just stating my opinion on things . I think the " panel of experts " reference is valid .

[Bellhorn04]

I don't have a persecution complex at all . Just stating my opinion on things . I think the " panel of experts " reference is valid .

 

Who exactly makes up this panel of experts? Everyone here is an individual who states their opinion, just like you do. 'Panel of experts' is BS.

[vegasbob]

Let's not forget that before these 4 straight losses, we had gone 18-8, including losing 2 out of 3 to the Astros while outscoring them, losing an 11 inning game to Colorado 5-4, and losing 6 of those 8 games by just 1-2 runs.

 

If we go 18-8 again, starting now, how will this board react?

 

Two ways : WTF Cora and Nunez sucks.

[dgalehouse]

Who exactly makes up this panel of experts? Everyone here is an individual who states their opinion, just like you do. 'Panel of experts' is BS.

 

I did not name names . I'll leave it up to the posters to decide if they have a seat on the distinguished panel .

[Bellhorn04]

I did not name names . I'll leave it up to the posters to decide if they have a seat on the distinguished panel .

 

Nice.

[Nick]

Things can all change quickly.

 

Yankees can win the Division by 15 games but if they don't get to the world series their fans won't be happy. We all want the big prize.

 

Assuming we get everyone healthy, we can still get through each playoff series, one game, best of five, best of seven. We have a talented ball club when they are all playing well.

 

We just need to make sure we get one of the wild card spots.

 

Another thing this season has taught me is that I'd think long and hard about $300M contracts. I rather overpay on short term deals. Moreland, Pearce and Nunez were all good gambles. It they don't deliver, they're off the team next year. High end players end up getting all the leverage. He they play well, they opt out after two or three years. If they suck, the team is stuck with unproductive player makings zillions.

Edited June 3, 2019 by Nick