A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[moonslav59]

But what were the odds for Oakland last year or Minnesota the year before?

 

Sometimes there is just that super long shot that makes it in and bumps out one of the favorites...

 

Yes, about 23-35% of the time.

[fxkatt]

But what were the odds for Oakland last year or Minnesota the year before?

 

Sometimes there is just that super long shot that makes it in and bumps out one of the favorites...

 

Yes, but that team won't bump out Houston, NY, or Boston unless, as I say, the Sox get injuries and refuse to sign anyone (rely only on minors roster). NY and Houston can withstand injuries because they have cap space to sign replacements, so they're in. Oakland Minny and TB I already mentioned so what team, apart from these, is the surprise team???

 

But more to the point is that the AL has more bad teams this year than in recent memory. I'm sorry to say it, but so many of these rosters seem closer to minor league caliber than major. Baltimore, Toronto, Chicago, KC, Seattle should be almost automatic wins. And we play Baltimore and Toronto 36 times Yawn. I'm ready for the post season right now.

[notin]

Yes, but that team won't bump out Houston, NY, or Boston unless, as I say, the Sox get injuries and refuse to sign anyone (rely only on minors roster). NY and Houston can withstand injuries because they have cap space to sign replacements, so they're in. Oakland Minny and TB I already mentioned so what team, apart from these, is the surprise team???

 

But more to the point is that the AL has more bad teams this year than in recent memory. I'm sorry to say it, but so many of these rosters seem closer to minor league caliber than major. Baltimore, Toronto, Chicago, KC, Seattle should be almost automatic wins. And we play Baltimore and Toronto 36 times Yawn. I'm ready for the post season right now.

 

 

But injuries can play a major factor. And even these lesser teams are still made of Major League players capable of getting and staying hot.

 

Odds are very good for the Sox, but you never can tell if some team is just going to put everything together at once. The White Sox and Angels in particular might be two such teams...

[fxkatt]

I think the loss of Detroit, Toronto, and Baltimore as the major players they recently were is a big reason why I think the road is so much easier for the Sox, Yanks, and Astros. And this could be one of the reasons for our slow start (confidence) and for our decision to not break the bank. If we can glide into the playoffs, why over expend like we did in last year's playoffs, driving our starters to the brink (one reason we may not have Eovaldi right now).

[Bellhorn04]

The Red Sox may well contend again but the Sox have played only 14 of 47 games against teams that qualified for the 2018 postseason (and half of those 14 games have come against an Oakland club that had stumbled out of the gate this year).

 

The Red Sox are a difficult team to forecast.

 

The Red Sox shouldn't be a difficult team to forecast.

 

It's basically the same team that won 108 games in 2018, minus Craig Kimbrel.

 

It's not like they have a bunch of key players who suddenly got old.

 

The overall health of the team seems decent at this point in time.

 

The only mystery is the horrible start-World Series hangover/Restgate etc.

 

So why are they a difficult team to forecast?

[notin]

The Red Sox shouldn't be a difficult team to forecast.

 

It's basically the same team that won 108 games in 2018, minus Craig Kimbrel.

 

It's not like they have a bunch of key players who suddenly got old.

 

The overall health of the team seems decent at this point in time.

 

The only mystery is the horrible start-World Series hangover/Restgate etc.

 

So why are they a difficult team to forecast?

 

 

I think it’s funny that 33 games get written off as easy because they were not against teams that played in the 2018 postseason. And then 7 more get written off because they were against a team from the 2018 postseason, but not a good one.

 

Exactly what games matter?

[S5Dewey]

The Red Sox shouldn't be a difficult team to forecast.

 

It's basically the same team that won 108 games in 2018, minus Craig Kimbrel.

 

It's not like they have a bunch of key players who suddenly got old.

 

The overall health of the team seems decent at this point in time.

 

The only mystery is the horrible start-World Series hangover/Restgate etc.

 

So why are they a difficult team to forecast?

 

This team seems a lot like last year's team in that the top of the order is good enough to win a lot of games and when the bottom of the order produces they can put up double-figures runs at almost any time.

 

The pitching is now coming around as is the (3B) defense. IMO the only thing that might keep them from winning the AL East is the poor start they got off to.

[Bellhorn04]

I think it’s funny that 33 games get written off as easy because they were not against teams that played in the 2018 postseason. And then 7 more get written off because they were against a team from the 2018 postseason, but not a good one.

 

Exactly what games matter?

 

harmony will get back to us right after he does his next crucial Chavis-Middlebrooks Career Comparison Update.

[Slasher9]

This team seems a lot like last year's team in that the top of the order is good enough to win a lot of games and when the bottom of the order produces they can put up double-figures runs at almost any time.

 

The pitching is now coming around as is the (3B) defense. IMO the only thing that might keep them from winning the AL East is the poor start they got off to.

 

good point about devers. he seems to have invested himself defensively on the mental side of it and his footwork/throws are much more consistent right now. i know there has been talk of him being 1b for a couple years now but i honestly see him as being our 3bman for the next 10 years.

[Slasher9]

harmony will get back to us right after he does his next crucial Chavis-Middlebrooks Career Comparison Update.

 

i actually think it will be interesting to see how they match up. we all know what Harmony hopes happens though.

but shouldnt the comparison be between the actual 3bman? WMB v Rafi? maybe we should really be comparing Chavis first 20 games vs Pedroia rookie campaign?

[Bellhorn04]

i actually think it will be interesting to see how they match up. we all know what Harmony hopes happens though.

but shouldnt the comparison be between the actual 3bman? WMB v Rafi? maybe we should really be comparing Chavis first 20 games vs Pedroia rookie campaign?

 

You know harmony, he's always on the lookout to keep us Sox fans from getting carried away with irrational exuberance. He considers it a service to us.

[notin]

harmony will get back to us right after he does his next crucial Chavis-Middlebrooks Career Comparison Update.

 

 

Now at the time, harmony was frequently comparing Middlebrooks to Mark Reynolds, which many felt was awful since for some stupid reason, they don’t think Reynolds has had a good career. But if Middlebrooks was comparable to Reynolds, and Chavis is comparable to Middlebrooks, does that mean Chavis should be compared to Reynolds? Might Chavis be looking at a career in which he gets over 6,000 PA, hits 300 HRs and has a career OPS+ of 104?

 

I’ll take that...

[moonslav59]

good point about devers. he seems to have invested himself defensively on the mental side of it and his footwork/throws are much more consistent right now. i know there has been talk of him being 1b for a couple years now but i honestly see him as being our 3bman for the next 10 years.

 

I could definitely see that.

 

I've talked of Devers moving to 1B, eventually, many times, but I always said he should get a chance to prove himself at 3B first.

 

I'm think Chavis will be our 1Bman next year, assuming he doesn't fall off a cliff. Holt & Nunez are FAs, so we may sign a (cheap) 2Bman this winter. I doubt we go with Pedey, Lin and Chatham.

[jacksonianmarch]

I entirely agree. Chavis is an abysmal 2b defensively. He’s biding his time faking it as a MIF before he takes over 1b for the next six years. The Sox will have to go cheap to get a 2b, so sticking with internal options or signing a veteran for peanuts is probably the way they’ll go. The Sox still have to address the JDM situation and with all the money they’ve got tied up, they’re gonna be lean elsewhere

[moonslav59]

We have 8 guys with an OPS over .800 over the last 4 weeks!

 

7 are over .872!

 

9 are over .756.

 

1.110 Vaz (Is this for real?)

1.004 Chavis (Can he keep this up or even .800+ the rest of the way?)

.998 Betts (Returning to form.)

.952 Devers (.354 BA is shocking.)

.888 Bogey (Steady Bogey.)

.883 Moreland (Back to his first half heroics.)

.873 JD (If he gets back to 1.000, watch out!)

.810 Leon (SCM must have morning sickness.)

.756 Beni (I'm expecting a break-out streak.)

 

.535 Nunez (Why he is DH'ing, I'll never know.)

.522 JBJ (Maybe that HR will spark a hot streak)

.403 Pearce (I'm losing hope.)

 

[moonslav59]

ERA over the last 4 weeks: (IP)

 

0.00 Barnes (9.2) & Hembree (8.2)

0.60 Walden (15.0)

1.13 Weber (8.0)

1.64 Workman (11.0)

2.16 Sale (33.1)

2.65 Price (17.0)

2.94 Porcello (33.2)

3.00 Brewer (9.0)

3.34 ERod (29.2)

4.91 JSmith (7.1)

5.40 Brasier (8.1)

7.11 Velazquez (12.2)

9.00 Thornburg (8.0)

 

Team: 2.94 (1.03 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 3.6 K/BB)

[d-money]

What’s the story on eovaldi? Is he coming back soon? We need the rotation to be healthy to make a run.

[Bellhorn04]

I entirely agree. Chavis is an abysmal 2b defensively. He’s biding his time faking it as a MIF before he takes over 1b for the next six years. The Sox will have to go cheap to get a 2b, so sticking with internal options or signing a veteran for peanuts is probably the way they’ll go. The Sox still have to address the JDM situation and with all the money they’ve got tied up, they’re gonna be lean elsewhere

 

There is no 'JDM situation'. In case you didn't notice, his numbers are down from last year. 2018 was more than likely his career year. He'll be back next year at least for sure.

[moonslav59]

I entirely agree. Chavis is an abysmal 2b defensively. He’s biding his time faking it as a MIF before he takes over 1b for the next six years. The Sox will have to go cheap to get a 2b, so sticking with internal options or signing a veteran for peanuts is probably the way they’ll go. The Sox still have to address the JDM situation and with all the money they’ve got tied up, they’re gonna be lean elsewhere

 

If it comes down to keeping JD vs Porcello, I'm certain it will be JD.

 

I shudder at trying to fill Porcello's shoes with someone from this group:

 

Velazquez

Johnson

Wright

Shawaryn

D Hernandez

Weber

J Smith

 

...but we may have to try it to the deadline.

[moonslav59]

There is no 'JDM situation'. In case you didn't notice, his numbers are down from last year. 2018 was more than likely his career year. He'll be back next year at least for sure.

 

What makes you think JD will stay "down" the remainder of this year?

 

.910 is not all that far from 1.031. If he ends over .975, he may test the waters, but even if he does, I think he ends up back here, for the same reasons he did before. Nobody else will pay what we will offer him.

[moonslav59]

What’s the story on eovaldi? Is he coming back soon? We need the rotation to be healthy to make a run.

 

He was supposed to miss about 6 weeks. I haven't heard about him starting a rehab assignment, but living down here in Texas kind of puts me out of the loop.

[Slasher9]

There is no 'JDM situation'. In case you didn't notice, his numbers are down from last year. 2018 was more than likely his career year. He'll be back next year at least for sure.

 

even if he matches or surpasses last years numbers i dont think he opts out this offseason as he still has 1 more year at fat money. after 2020 - maybe.

[Bellhorn04]

What makes you think JD will stay "down" the remainder of this year?

 

.910 is not all that far from 1.031.

 

That's the problem with OPS - even significant differences look small.

 

I'm not knocking JD at all, he's awesome. But I thought he would regress a bit this year.

[harmony]

harmony will get back to us right after he does his next crucial Chavis-Middlebrooks Career Comparison Update.

Through first 26 MLB games:

 

WM 106 PA, .314/.340/.559/.898. 14 R, 6 HR, 22 RBI

MC 113 PA, .296/.389/.592/.981, 17 R, 9 HR, 24 RBI

 

Objectivity is a heavy cross to bear.

 

Because specific team needs, my fantasy team does not have role for Michael Chavis but I can't find a taker in a trade despite intense marketing.

[harmony]

I think it’s funny that 33 games get written off as easy because they were not against teams that played in the 2018 postseason. And then 7 more get written off because they were against a team from the 2018 postseason, but not a good one.

 

Exactly what games matter?

I suspect games against the Astros and Yankees matter the most.

[dgalehouse]

Through first 26 MLB games:

 

WM 106 PA, .314/.340/.559/.898. 14 R, 6 HR, 22 RBI

MC 113 PA, .296/.389/.592/.981, 17 R, 9 HR, 24 RBI

 

Objectivity is a heavy cross to bear.

 

Because specific team needs, my fantasy team does not have role for Michael Chavis but I can't find a taker in a trade despite intense marketing.

The Cooler .

[Maxbialystock]

The Red Sox may well contend again but the Sox have played only 14 of 47 games against teams that qualified for the 2018 postseason (and half of those 14 games have come against an Oakland club that had stumbled out of the gate this year).

 

The Red Sox are a difficult team to forecast.

 

You do know, I hope, that last year's team played postseason teams 45 times last year, 28% of all games.

 

And so far this year 14 of 47 is 30%. And let's not forget that road trip from hell to kick off the season--not just 11 games, but 11 games in 11 days, which exacerbated the ST situation we have all discussed ad nauseum.

 

A month ago I would have said the Sox were dead meat. But they are definitely playing better ball right now--losing 2 of 3 to the Astros at Fenway notwithstanding. The hitting is back despite so far lesser seasons by Betts, Benintendi, and JDM. But Chavis is hitting tons better than Kinsler last year, Bogie's, Vazquez's, Moreland's, and Devers's numbers are up. And the rotation and bullpen--as moonslav has just shown us--are also doing well over the past 4 weeks.

 

Bottom line: a repeat of last year is very unlikely, but getting to the postseason is a pretty good bet.

[Maxbialystock]

He was supposed to miss about 6 weeks. I haven't heard about him starting a rehab assignment, but living down here in Texas kind of puts me out of the loop.

 

This from the Boston Herald May 17 (the bullpen session mentioned would be today)under the headline "Eovaldi Making Rapid Recovery":

 

But soon enough their World Series hero could be back on the mound. He said he’s been throwing for three or four days.

 

“My arm feels great,” Eovaldi said. “We’re just trying to take it slow with everything and just make sure we build up the right way.”

 

On Tuesday, he’ll throw his first bullpen session since surgery.

 

Because he was able to prepare himself for the season and stretch his arm out to 104 pitches before the surgery, Eovaldi feels like he won’t need much time to get back into game shape.

 

“We didn’t really lose much,” he said. “We were able to keep my arm and mobilities, things like that, weight, exercises. Arm still feels good and strong and I’m coming out to play catch, just making sure we’re not doing too much.”

 

Trying to keep him from throwing 100 mph too quickly will be a difficult task for manager Alex Cora. Eovaldi has a tendency to let it rip at full strength whenever he throws.

[Nick]

You do know, I hope, that last year's team played postseason teams 45 times last year, 28% of all games.

 

And so far this year 14 of 47 is 30%. And let's not forget that road trip from hell to kick off the season--not just 11 games, but 11 games in 11 days, which exacerbated the ST situation we have all discussed ad nauseum.

 

A month ago I would have said the Sox were dead meat. But they are definitely playing better ball right now--losing 2 of 3 to the Astros at Fenway notwithstanding. The hitting is back despite so far lesser seasons by Betts, Benintendi, and JDM. But Chavis is hitting tons better than Kinsler last year, Bogie's, Vazquez's, Moreland's, and Devers's numbers are up. And the rotation and bullpen--as moonslav has just shown us--are also doing well over the past 4 weeks.

 

Bottom line: a repeat of last year is very unlikely, but getting to the postseason is a pretty good bet.

 

And not to mention both Eovaldi and Price were not available for the Houston series.

 

We look different in best of 5 or best of 7 series assuming all of our starting pitchers are healthy. We have chance to win every game going in. Not the case right now.

[mvp 78]

I entirely agree. Chavis is an abysmal 2b defensively. He’s biding his time faking it as a MIF before he takes over 1b for the next six years. The Sox will have to go cheap to get a 2b, so sticking with internal options or signing a veteran for peanuts is probably the way they’ll go. The Sox still have to address the JDM situation and with all the money they’ve got tied up, they’re gonna be lean elsewhere

 

CJ Chatham will be the opening day 2b IMO (unless Pedroia drags this out even further).