A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Michigan adam]

Those two cases gave metrics a bad name, and it still is a mystery how they both ended up with numbers that defied the eyes. I've never heard a plausible reason for why the came out looking so much better than we all know they were.

 

I can understand that maybe they weren't as bad as the eyes showed they were, but the metrics seemed way off for both of them.

 

And then there was Jeter who metrics said was great and the eyes said he was solid but failed to get to alot of balls others got too, yet JEter got all of the gold gloves.

[moonslav59]

And then there was Jeter who metrics said was great and the eyes said he was solid but failed to get to alot of balls others got too, yet JEter got all of the gold gloves.

 

My eyes agreed with the metrics on Jeter. He had the worst range at a position where range in super important.

 

Yes, he made the plays hit right to him. Whhop-dee-freakin-doo!

[moonslav59]

I have been an advocate of looking for a suitable replacement for a couple of years. Surely JBJ has value defensively, but his OPS is awful. For the money, maybe we could do better or if this kid Jarren Duran is for real, maybe we have a kid for less money who will become a better player than JBJ for next season. We need to find $ savings in order to keep our stars, so he may well be an alternative.

 

JBJ is my favorite player, but I'd be fine with replacing him with a defensive CF'er who can hit better than him. The new guy doesn't even have to be as great as JBJ on defense: he just has to be real good on D for me to like him.

 

How do we find this guy? Our budget is tight. Our OF on the farm is far away. We can't trade anyone without opening a hole or weakening our future even more.

 

Yes, his OPS sucks, right now, but I have faith he'll get back around .700 and maybe higher. If he stays under .500 or maybe even .550 for too much longer, we'll replace him. No great D sustains .450.

 

[moonslav59]

After his rehab assignment was shut down over the weekend, Dustin Pedroia will be back playing on Friday, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe tweets.

[notin]

I have been an advocate of looking for a suitable replacement for a couple of years. Surely JBJ has value defensively, but his OPS is awful. For the money, maybe we could do better or if this kid Jarren Duran is for real, maybe we have a kid for less money who will become a better player than JBJ for next season. We need to find $ savings in order to keep our stars, so he may well be an alternative.

 

Jarren Duran is in A-ball. Can we let him try AA before we pencil him into the starting lineup in MLB?

[Bellhorn04]

You think dropping .067 would turn a 2.8 WAR to 0.0 or worse?

 

(Note: I also think JBJ's defense is under represented in WAR, but that's just my opinion.)

 

Not 0.0 or worse. But probably 1.5 or worse - which is average or a little less.

[moonslav59]

Jarren Duran is in A-ball. Can we let him try AA before we pencil him into the starting lineup in MLB?

 

es, he will not be ML ready until JBJ's arb years are done...plus maybe another year or two

[notin]

You think dropping .067 would turn a 2.8 WAR to 0.0 or worse?

 

(Note: I also think JBJ's defense is under represented in WAR, but that's just my opinion.)

 

 

Whether or not Bradley’s defense is underrepresented in fWAR is a matter of what you are expecting the metrics to tell you.

 

If you think it represents his ability, I can see why. But I don’t agree.

 

But no stat really measures ability. Stats are recorded history of what actually happened. Right now, Bradley ranks 12th out of 19 qualified center fielders in total plays made. He also ranks 17th out of 19 in “out of zone” plays.

 

It’s not like his range has suffered due to a leg injury and he just can’t get to anything any more. He’s s simply not as involved defensively. And a big factor is very likely Betts, who ranks 2nd out of 19 right fielders in “out of zone” plays. (Betts also ranks about the same as Bradley - 13th out of 19 - in total plays made.)

 

So Bradley’s low defensive score is a function of opportunity. Sox pitchers simply are not giving the outfielders as many chances to make plays. And when they do, Betts appears to be taking a decent chunk of the more difficult plays away from Bradley.

 

In contrast, Kiermaier has made fewer plays than Bradley, but ranks 1st in “out of zone” plays. A big part of the reason is Avisail Garcia is no Mookie Betts out there. (A more spacious CF in Tampa also helps.)

 

But defensive stats are there to tell you what happened. Not to measure unused parts of the skill set...

[notin]

es, he will not be ML ready until JBJ's arb years are done...plus maybe another year or two

 

 

Exactly. And even that assumes he doesn’t have injuries or just plain suck at higher levels...

[moonslav59]

Exactly. And even that assumes he doesn’t have injuries or just plain suck at higher levels...

 

This, too.

[Bellhorn04]

Whether or not Bradley’s defense is underrepresented in fWAR is a matter of what you are expecting the metrics to tell you.

 

If you think it represents his ability, I can see why. But I don’t agree.

 

But no stat really measures ability. Stats are recorded history of what actually happened. Right now, Bradley ranks 12th out of 19 qualified center fielders in total plays made. He also ranks 17th out of 19 in “out of zone” plays.

 

It’s not like his range has suffered due to a leg injury and he just can’t get to anything any more. He’s s simply not as involved defensively. And a big factor is very likely Betts, who ranks 2nd out of 19 right fielders in “out of zone” plays. (Betts also ranks about the same as Bradley - 13th out of 19 - in total plays made.)

 

So Bradley’s low defensive score is a function of opportunity. Sox pitchers simply are not giving the outfielders as many chances to make plays. And when they do, Betts appears to be taking a decent chunk of the more difficult plays away from Bradley.

 

In contrast, Kiermaier has made fewer plays than Bradley, but ranks 1st in “out of zone” plays. A big part of the reason is Avisail Garcia is no Mookie Betts out there. (A more spacious CF in Tampa also helps.)

 

But defensive stats are there to tell you what happened. Not to measure unused parts of the skill set...

 

Interesting observations. Raises the question of whether a fielder should be penalized that much for having their range impacted by another fielder.

 

Or as some might say, don't you still want Jackie out there to make those catches like the one on Trey Mancini? Mookie wasn't getting to that one!

[Slasher9]

Interesting observations. Raises the question of whether a fielder should be penalized that much for having their range impacted by another fielder.

 

Or as some might say, don't you still want Jackie out there to make those catches like the one on Trey Mancini? Mookie wasn't getting to that one!

 

i do.

i would also bet the farm that JDM is not playing RF the next time Sale pitches.

JBj went to LF his first AB the other night. when he starts going oppo taco is when he starts heating up on one of his hitting tears. get ready to strap in for the ride....

[notin]

Interesting observations. Raises the question of whether a fielder should be penalized that much for having their range impacted by another fielder.

 

Or as some might say, don't you still want Jackie out there to make those catches like the one on Trey Mancini? Mookie wasn't getting to that one!

 

There will be great plays, because he flat out has the ability.

 

The point is - he isn’t being “penalized.” Stats measure what he’s done, not what he can do or should do.

 

Bradley is simply underutilized in Boston. And while I could see why the Sox would try to replace him with a more well-rounded CF (re: lesser defender but better hitter), it isn’t going to happen because it’s simply not that easy. Also because having an underutilized defender is much better than one who is just not capable.

 

And while I expect Bradley to get hot at some point, on the off chance he doesn’t, the Sox might have to make a surprising decision this off-season on whether or not they even offer him arbitration or just non-tender him (although even if they do, they still might re-sign him)...

[Bellhorn04]

There will be great plays, because he flat out has the ability.

 

The point is - he isn’t being “penalized.” Stats measure what he’s done, not what he can do or should do.

 

But some stats need to be viewed in context and not in a vacuum.

 

Just because a fielder didn't have any plays in a game doesn't mean they had a bad game.

[SoxnCycles]

Here's the point about batting order that I have said over and over, but people seem to keep overlooking. It just doesn't make that much of a difference. It doesn't make enough of a difference to worry about little tweaks, like whether a guy bats 1st or 2nd, or whether a guy bats 3rd or 4th. It is more advantageous to put guys in a spot where they feel comfortable. Here is a great example of where analytics people favor the human element.

 

Is that what Cora is doing? I don't know. But Cora, being the analytics guy that he is, knows enough to know that.

 

Stop being so rankled Kimmi. ;-)

[notin]

But some stats need to be viewed in context and not in a vacuum.

 

Just because a fielder didn't have any plays in a game doesn't mean they had a bad game.

 

 

That’s true.

 

It’s like in the NFL. The best-skilled cornerbacks never lead the league in interceptions. But the guys who do are quite often the ones on the other side from them, because that’s where the other teams are throwing.

 

Stats measure history. And in history, opportunity matters...

[S5Dewey]

Those two cases gave metrics a bad name, and it still is a mystery how they both ended up with numbers that defied the eyes. I've never heard a plausible reason for why the came out looking so much better than we all know they were.

 

I can understand that maybe they weren't as bad as the eyes showed they were, but the metrics seemed way off for both of them.

 

This isn't a condemnation of metrics at all, but it's instances like these (and Jeter and JBJ) that give metrics a bad name. When we as fans see things that are obviously out of line with reality we have to ask ourselves what OTHER issues are there with the metrics that we're not seeing because they're not as obvious. Either that or we just accept the fact that because it's a mathematical calculation is must be right, and I'm not good at that!

Edited May 17, 2019 by S5Dewey
Added an Oxford comma for clarity. :-)

[Bellhorn04]

That’s true.

 

It’s like in the NFL. The best-skilled cornerbacks never lead the league in interceptions. But the guys who do are quite often the ones on the other side from them, because that’s where the other teams are throwing.

 

Stats measure history. And in history, opportunity matters...

 

That's the thing about fielding that's different from pitching and hitting. With pitching and hitting the opportunities are guaranteed.

[harmony]

I am humbled. In the past week I've been to one Sea Dogs game, two NCAA Div.1 Games, two D3 games (the conference tourney is close by) two high school games and one HS softball game. I'm planning on a HS game tomorrow (weather permitting) and a D1 game on Saturday.

 

And I still spend too much time in front of my computer.

I may complete the NCAA trifecta as my daughter’s university hosts a D2 Regional this weekend. Today I’m not sure I can make it from a 3:30 pm college game to the 7 pm Padre game.

[moonslav59]

This isn't a condemnation of metrics at all, but it's instances like these (and Jeter and JBJ) that give metrics a bad name. When we as fans see things that are obviously out of line with reality we have to ask ourselves what OTHER issues are there with the metrics that we're not seeing because they're not as obvious. Either that or we just accept the fact that because it's a mathematical calculation is must be right, and I'm not good at that!

 

Jeter is no an exception.

 

He sucked on D.

[notin]

That's the thing about fielding that's different from pitching and hitting. With pitching and hitting the opportunities are guaranteed.

 

Well, are hitting opportunities as guaranteed as we like to believe?

 

It’s only been in the last 20 years or so anyone has decided OBP and walks actually do matter. But before than, hitters who drew a lot of walks had numerous plate appearances with few of any hit table pitches. And we considered them lesser hitters for it.

 

Former Braves’ shortstop Rafael Ramirez was notorious for never drawing walks. When asked about it, he once said “You have to hit like a man!” What does that say about opportunities where the hitter had few if any actual chances? Even from a player’s viewpoint?

[bkzwhitestrican]

Jeter is no an exception.

 

He sucked on D.

 

Yeah but he was good for at least one leaping throw across his body each season (except when he was an old man)

[notin]

This isn't a condemnation of metrics at all, but it's instances like these (and Jeter and JBJ) that give metrics a bad name. When we as fans see things that are obviously out of line with reality we have to ask ourselves what OTHER issues are there with the metrics that we're not seeing because they're not as obvious. Either that or we just accept the fact that because it's a mathematical calculation is must be right, and I'm not good at that!

 

 

And maybe answers like the one I’m about to give lead to interpretations of condescension. (But it isn’t.)

 

That’s not what the metrics do.

 

Really like any stat, they just tell you what happened. Eye testing defense is more fun because you get to watch games, but it’s very weak comparatively because - that word again - opportunities are imbalanced. A couple weeks back, some were calling Kiermaier overrated because he didn’t look like anything special for 3 games. Obviously Bradley can, will, and has had 3 game stretches where he didn’t do anything special either. Hey, if the chances are not there, we can’t judge him on the plays he doesn’t make.

 

I would say maybe the proper argument for defensive metrics isn’t about “who is the best defender” at position X; but rather “whose having the best season defending” position X. Or best career. Or best 3-season stretch. You get the idea.

 

Even hitting comps are applicable. Jorge Polanco and Josh Reddick are tied for the AL lead in batting average. Are either of these guys really the best hitter in the AL?

[Slasher9]

I may complete the NCAA trifecta as my daughter’s university hosts a D2 Regional this weekend. Today I’m not sure I can make it from a 3:30 pm college game to the 7 pm Padre game.

 

Franklin Pierce records huge upset win in DII World Series yesterday.

Franklin Pierce 4

Adelphi 3

 

Lets go Ravens!!!

[moonslav59]

Yeah but he was good for at least one leaping throw across his body each season (except when he was an old man)

 

...and that one play we've all seen 365 times, where he flies into the stands to make a catch.

[notin]

...and that one play we've all seen 365 times, where he flies into the stands to make a catch.

 

 

Except that he caught that ball about 3 full steps before he leapt in to the stands. If you’re going to make a catch and run that far before you jump into the stands, I assume it’s because you just caught a touchdown pass from Aaron Rodgers....

[mvp 78]

...and that one play we've all seen 365 times, where he flies into the stands to make a catch.

 

[moonslav59]

 

He had his eyes closed.

[Slasher9]

Except that he caught that ball about 3 full steps before he leapt in to the stands. If you’re going to make a catch and run that far before you jump into the stands, I assume it’s because you just caught a touchdown pass from Aaron Rodgers....

 

this is 100% accurate.

[Bellhorn04]

Well, are hitting opportunities as guaranteed as we like to believe?

 

It’s only been in the last 20 years or so anyone has decided OBP and walks actually do matter. But before than, hitters who drew a lot of walks had numerous plate appearances with few of any hit table pitches. And we considered them lesser hitters for it.

 

Former Braves’ shortstop Rafael Ramirez was notorious for never drawing walks. When asked about it, he once said “You have to hit like a man!” What does that say about opportunities where the hitter had few if any actual chances? Even from a player’s viewpoint?

 

Would you settle for 'getting on base opportunities' then?