A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Nick]

Chavis has basically hit himself into the lineup. Obviously this would not have happened without Pedey injury.

 

He needs to stay in the lineup. I don't care how you work it.

 

We are 6 games behind. It's definitely not a panic time but Chavis has earned regular at bats.

[Bellhorn04]

I'd rather be a wild card team with a peaking Sale than a division winner with a burnt out Sale

 

Although it worked out OK last year.

[oldtimer]

I was thinking the same thing last year, too.

 

Having a peak Sale in October should be the number one priority on Sale.

 

I'd rather be a wild card team with a peaking Sale than a division winner with a burnt out Sale- not that we can't win the division AND keep Sale fresh.

 

Having Sale peak in October if we don't make the playoffs makes little sense to me and we are in danger of just that.

 

The season is now past 20% complete and we are going through some of the easier competition and making little progress. What happens when we slug it out with the better performing teams?

 

Some of the problem can be traced to the management decision making relative to the field players. We are asking Beni, Mookie, JDM, Bogie, Devers and now Chavis to carry the offensive load and Chavis has been a lucky afterthought. Moreland is the only other field player who has contributed, despite his .202 batting average. He has 9 HR and 19RBIs. Vaz is also doing his job as primary catcher.

 

Our field players of Pearce, Bradley, Leon, Nunez, Holt, Lin and Pedroia have less rbi's combined than Moreland. To me that is not the hallmark of a competitive team. I've got to hope that a few of these guys heat up soon as they have been a veritable boat anchor through the first month. I for one hope that we clean house to the extent possible next year and either go with younger talent or look for help in the FA market. It hard for me to see how any of the guys mentioned in the last list have any trade value.

[moonslav59]

Having Sale peak in October if we don't make the playoffs makes little sense to me and we are in danger of just that.

 

The season is now past 20% complete and we are going through some of the easier competition and making little progress. What happens when we slug it out with the better performing teams?

 

Some of the problem can be traced to the management decision making relative to the field players. We are asking Beni, Mookie, JDM, Bogie, Devers and now Chavis to carry the offensive load and Chavis has been a lucky afterthought. Moreland is the only other field player who has contributed, despite his .202 batting average. He has 9 HR and 19RBIs. Vaz is also doing his job as primary catcher.

 

Our field players of Pearce, Bradley, Leon, Nunez, Holt, Lin and Pedroia have less rbi's combined than Moreland. To me that is not the hallmark of a competitive team. I've got to hope that a few of these guys heat up soon as they have been a veritable boat anchor through the first month. I for one hope that we clean house to the extent possible next year and either go with younger talent or look for help in the FA market. It hard for me to see how any of the guys mentioned in the last list have any trade value.

 

Just because a team has played poorly for a month does not mean it is doomed to missing the playoffs.

 

Yes, the season is 20% over and looking JUST at their performance, so far, there isn't much to be optimistic about, but this is a great team.

 

I refuse to think losing Kimbrel has turned this team into a loser.

 

I am very confident this team will easily make the playoffs. I'm a little more concerned about not winning the division, but I still think we will.

 

As bad as we have played, and as well as the Rays have played, we are still only 6.5 back from the division lead.

 

We are 3.5 games behind the last wild card team- the Guardians who just lost Kluber- and it's early May, for God's sake!

 

Early MAY! Let that sink in.

 

There's no reason to believe what happened over the last month will continue, and many more reasons to expect players to return to their norms- like many already have begun to do.

 

Our rotation has been day and night compared to early season. The killer B's are doing much better, except for JBJ, who always seems to have a rough patch and then do okay or better. Chavis has helped the 2B position that has lost all 3 top of the depth chart players. Our pen has defied all the criticism and done pretty well. Vaz is hitting better. Devers is coming to life.

 

I guess I just can't understand all the doom and gloom. There is a lot to be optimistic about.

 

Back-to-back, my friend! Back-to- freekin' BACK!

 

[moonslav59]

Although it worked out OK last year.

 

Yes! And the funny think was, I thought we couldn't win it all, unless Sale was super sharp by playoff time, yet we won without him really helping all that much!

 

Having a sharp Sale certainly improves our odds this year. Im like what I saw last night. He was throwing about 95 mph pretty often. Our bats got the job done and seem to be more consistent, of late.

[Bellhorn04]

It looks like a team on the upswing to me too. Especially with Sale pitching a game like he did last night.

[moonslav59]

Chavis has basically hit himself into the lineup. Obviously this would not have happened without Pedey injury.

 

He needs to stay in the lineup. I don't care how you work it.

 

We are 6 games behind. It's definitely not a panic time but Chavis has earned regular at bats.

 

I agree. We should stick with him. There will be some adjustments made by opposing pitchers, and Chavis will have to counter adjust, but I'd let him ride through a couple rough patches that are likely to happen. Play him at 2B, 3B, DH or 1B-- just keep him in the line-up as near full time as possible.

 

[moonslav59]

It looks like a team on the upswing to me too. Especially with Sale pitching a game like he did last night.

 

Hopefully, that Sale performance will instill some confidence in the whole team to keep this turn around going.

[dgalehouse]

We have won the A.L. East three straight years. The goal has to be to win it again .

[moonslav59]

We have won the A.L. East three straight years. The goal has to be to win it again .

 

I think we will, and yes, it is a goal, but to me the highest priority should be to make the playoffs and be in the best shape possible going into game 1.

 

Winning the division is important, for sure, as we avoid a play-in game and maybe get home field, but to me, it is not the top goal or priority.

[moonslav59]

The Boston Red Sox activated infielder Eduardo Nunez from the 10-day IL today, per an official team release. Infielder Tzu-Wei Lin heads to the injured list in the corresponding move.

[harmony]

In the past decade the Red Sox record after 33 games and at the end of the regular season:

2019: 15-18, xx-xx

2018: 24-9, 108-54 *

2017: 17-16, 93-69 *

2016: 20-13, 93-69 *

2015: 15-18, 78-84

2014: 16-17, 71-91

2013: 21-12, 97-65 *

2012: 14-19, 69-93

2011: 15-18, 90-72

2010: 17-16, 89-73

 

* advanced to postseason

[devildavid]

In the past decade the Red Sox record after 33 games and at the end of the regular season:

2019: 15-18, xx-xx

2018: 24-9, 108-54 *

2017: 17-16, 93-69 *

2016: 20-13, 93-69 *

2015: 15-18, 78-84

2014: 16-17, 71-91

2013: 21-12, 97-65 *

2012: 14-19, 69-93

2011: 15-18, 90-72

2010: 17-16, 89-73

 

* advanced to postseason

 

These numbers are meaningless. The most important are what their divisional opponents records are today and what the odds are of taking the division. Also the records of all other AL teams and the odds of securing a wild card spot. This season is discrete and has no statistical connection to past Red Sox records at this point in the season.

[harmony]

These numbers are meaningless. The most important are what their divisional opponents records are today and what the odds are of taking the division. Also the records of all other AL teams and the odds of securing a wild card spot. This season is discrete and has no statistical connection to past Red Sox records at this point in the season.

FanGraphs currently gives the Red Sox a 57 percent chance of advancing to the postseason while FiveThirtyEight lists their chances at 47 percent:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/

 

FanGraphs gives the Red Sox a 16.1 percent chance of winning the division while FiveThirtyEight lists their chances at 15 percent.

Edited May 4, 2019 by harmony

[devildavid]

FanGraphs currently gives the Red Sox a 57 percent chance of advancing to the postseason while FiveThirtyEight lists their chances at 47 percent:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/

 

FanGraphs gives the Red Sox a 16.1 percent chance of winning the division while FiveThirtyEight lists their chances at 15 percent.

 

Which is all based on the current season. This bad start has greatly reduced my expectations for a successful season. There are a lot of teams to climb over.

[Bellhorn04]

Which is all based on the current season. This bad start has greatly reduced my expectations for a successful season. There are a lot of teams to climb over.

 

There really isn't much ground to make up to get a Wild Card spot. At the start of the day we're 2.5 games out of the second spot, with 80% of the season to go.

 

But the Rays are for real, IMO. We do have our work cut out to win the division.

[dgalehouse]

Forget fangraphs when it comes to odds . Vegas has the Sox as the third choice , behind the Astros and Yankees , to win the A.L. pennant at odds of 9 - 2 . The Rays are 10 - 1 . What with all of the crappy teams in the A.L. , getting at least a wild card seems pretty easy .

[dgalehouse]

JBJ's offense not withstanding, I found it odd that Cora moved Beni to CF and put Pearce in LF last night when Lin went down. I expected JBJ to be put in CF. That demonstrates how committed Cora is to days off for players.

 

I think Bradley is out again tonight . Probably got a little banged up on Delmonico 's homer .

[OH FOY]

July 19 1978 14 games up on the Yankees. Really we getting into this now, about season is almost over.

https://www3.bostonglobe.com/2014/06/06/the-red-sox-collapse/LLvZRH9ti832LPnxToyvbJ/story.html?arc404=true

[harmony]

July 19 1978 14 games up on the Yankees. Really we getting into this now, about season is almost over.

https://www3.bostonglobe.com/2014/06/06/the-red-sox-collapse/LLvZRH9ti832LPnxToyvbJ/story.html?arc404=true

On August 2, 1995, the Seattle Mariners were 13 games out of first place but came back to win the AL West title and beat the Yankees in the AL Divisional Series before falling in the AL Championship Series:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/1995-schedule-scores.shtml

[Nick]

How's Joe Kelly doing?

 

12 Games, 8.31 ERA, 0-3 in converting saves...13 IP, 20 hits, 12 R/ER, .351 BA...

 

Yeah, he would have helped us...3 yr/25M, $8.3M CBT payroll..yikes

 

Kimmi is always right....don't spend on relievers.

[Nick]

Mike Shawaryn, Boston Red Sox prospect with 2.72 ERA for PawSox, was considered for big league start last week

 

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/2019/05/mike-shawaryn-boston-red-sox-prospect-with-272-era-for-pawsox-was-considered-for-big-league-start-last-week.html

 

I would love to see him pitch.....

[Nick]

Michael Freakin' Chavis.....

[moonslav59]

Michael Freakin' Chavis.....

 

Damn straight!

[MADSTORK]

How's Joe Kelly doing?

 

 

Thornburg has replaced him

 

Time for DD to DFA this bust

 

Better options in AAA and AA

 

ERod not to far behind

[Slasher9]

How's Joe Kelly doing?

 

 

Thornburg has replaced him

 

Time for DD to DFA this bust

 

Better options in AAA and AA

 

ERod not to far behind

 

Lol. You’re an idiot

[moonslav59]

DFA ERod?

 

lmao!

[Jasonbay44]

If you think we should DFA Erod, you are an idiot.

[notin]

Forget fangraphs when it comes to odds . Vegas has the Sox as the third choice , behind the Astros and Yankees , to win the A.L. pennant at odds of 9 - 2 . The Rays are 10 - 1 . What with all of the crappy teams in the A.L. , getting at least a wild card seems pretty easy .

 

 

Vegas has to take into consideration the action on each betting option. Fangraphs doesn’t...

[notin]

How's Joe Kelly doing?

 

 

Thornburg has replaced him

 

Time for DD to DFA this bust

 

Better options in AAA and AA

 

ERod not to far behind

 

Didn’t you hear? The Sox DFAd you today. You’re free to become a fan of another team...