A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

I stand corrected.

 

You were right, I just had to put in a word for Mitch.

[Kimmi]

You were right, I just had to put in a word for Mitch.

 

Glad that you did.

 

He deserves a good word.

[vegasbob]

We may not be at a "must win" point but we're at the "I hope we don't lose another one tonight" point.

 

As the saying goes, "You can't win it in April but you sure can lose it."

 

After April 30, the Sox will have played 31 games (barring rainouts). If they want to be 15-16 at that point, they need to go 12-7 (.631 pace) . 16-15 obviously takes 13-6 record(.684 pace) from here on. The 108-54 season was a .667, and the 11-3 playoffs/WS was a .785. This is essentially the same team, discounting Leon, Kimbrel, Kelly , so they could get just below or above .500 with results mimicking 2018's season pace. Easier said than done , but then they did go 17-2 in the same timeframe last year.

[moonslav59]

Tiny sample sizes....

 

Line Drive %

39 Swihart

26 Devers

20 Vaz & Bogey

18 JD

14 Moreland & Beni

13 Betts

11 Holt

7 Nunez & JBJ

 

Medium to Hard Hit %

95 JD

92 Swihart

90 Vaz

89 Betts, Devers, Holt & JBJ

87 Bogey

86 Moreland

83 Beni

46 Nunez

 

[SCM33]

There's no way we are even close to the point of no return.

 

 

People panic way too early. Someone called game 3 against Seattle a “must win” game last week. There is no such thing as a Must Win MLB game in March...

 

LOL.

 

You guys didnt even read my post.

 

If they are 4-15 in a week, like I said........then you bet your ass you panic, unless you are in a coma.

[Maxbialystock]

Tiny sample sizes....

 

Line Drive %

39 Swihart

26 Devers

20 Vaz & Bogey

18 JD

14 Moreland & Beni

13 Betts

11 Holt

7 Nunez & JBJ

 

Medium to Hard Hit %

95 JD

92 Swihart

90 Vaz

89 Betts, Devers, Holt & JBJ

87 Bogey

86 Moreland

83 Beni

46 Nunez

 

Who cares about those numbers when the pitching and defense are so miserably bad?

[moonslav59]

Who cares about those numbers when the pitching and defense are so miserably bad?

 

People were talking about how hard JBJ has been hitting the ball.

 

I showed some data that shows that may not be true.

[iortiz]

People were talking about how hard JBJ has been hitting the ball.

 

I showed some data that shows that may not be true.

His BABIP is 200 or something. He will hit.

[S5Dewey]

His BABIP is 200 or something. He will hit.

 

And even if he doesn't he should be our CF'er. I'll post again what I said in my (only) post in the game thread:

 

I'll tell you what.... The guys in the booth are gushing about Moreland's double but JBJ makes the catch on that ball...every day. And if that catch is made - that 's the difference in the game. That's why I want JBJ in our outfield.

[Slasher9]

And even if he doesn't he should be our CF'er. I'll post again what I said in my (only) post in the game thread:

 

I'll tell you what.... The guys in the booth are gushing about Moreland's double but JBJ makes the catch on that ball...every day. And if that catch is made - that 's the difference in the game. That's why I want JBJ in our outfield.

 

agree 100%. there are a handful of CFers that make that catch. JBj's first step is so quick he makes that catch look "easy".

I am glad he is on our team.

[notin]

LOL.

 

You guys didnt even read my post.

 

If they are 4-15 in a week, like I said........then you bet your ass you panic, unless you are in a coma.

 

They’re 4-9 now. If they lose the next 6, time for a fire sale?

[notin]

Bizarre Stats Dept.

 

In 3 of the Sox 4 wins this year, they took the lead in the ninth inning. In the 4th win, they took the lead in the 7th...

[Bellhorn04]

Bizarre Stats Dept.

 

In 3 of the Sox 4 wins this year, they took the lead in the ninth inning. In the 4th win, they took the lead in the 7th...

 

With most of the damage done by Clutch Clutchland.

[oldtimer]

People were talking about how hard JBJ has been hitting the ball.

 

I showed some data that shows that may not be true.

 

I thought your post was informative. I had only watched JBJ hit a few times and in those cases, when he made contact it was solid. I drew the wrong conclusion from that. In fact, despite his talk of changing things for the better with the bat, it hasn't shown in results as yet.

[notin]

With most of the damage done by Clutch Clutchland.

 

 

Which leads me to Bizarre Stats Dept #2

 

Bogaerts, Bradley, Nunez, Holt, Vazquez, and Swihart are a combined 8 for 76 (.105) with runners on base. Not scoring position, just on base.

 

Devers, in contrast, is 9 for 23 (.391) with runners on base, despite getting 0 RBI the first 12 games...

[Slasher9]

with most of the damage done by clutch clutchland.

 

i am completely on board referring to mitch moreland as clutch clutchland or clutchie poo.

[Slasher9]

Clutchie 2bags

[Bellhorn04]

Which leads me to Bizarre Stats Dept #2

 

Bogaerts, Bradley, Nunez, Holt, Vazquez, and Swihart are a combined 8 for 76 (.105) with runners on base. Not scoring position, just on base.

 

Devers, in contrast, is 9 for 23 (.391) with runners on base, despite getting 0 RBI the first 12 games...

 

And contrast this with the 2018 postseason.

[notin]

And contrast this with the 2018 postseason.

 

Without doing math, I bet better than .105...

[notin]

Clutchie 2bags

 

 

I think he got promoted to Clutchie Four Bags...

[Kimmi]

You were right, I just had to put in a word for Mitch.

 

Good call Bell, good call.

[Bellhorn04]

Good call Bell, good call.

 

I love it when that happens.

[Kimmi]

And even if he doesn't he should be our CF'er. I'll post again what I said in my (only) post in the game thread:

 

I'll tell you what.... The guys in the booth are gushing about Moreland's double but JBJ makes the catch on that ball...every day. And if that catch is made - that 's the difference in the game. That's why I want JBJ in our outfield.

 

Completely agree.

[Kimmi]

Feel good stats for Devers and JD:

 

Red Sox Stats‏ @redsoxstats 7h7 hours ago

 

Game winner was the only pitch out of the zone Devers swung at tonight. All his ingredients keep improving. His breakout is going to be spectacular.

 

JDM 1-3, 2B (112), 2 BB, and his outs were hit 107 and 108. He's hitting 327/411/551 with 11 hard hit outs. He's been better this year than last and only has six strikeouts so far, that's a development to watch.

[harmony]

Of the 117 innings the Red Sox have played this year only 12 ended with the Sox in the lead.

 

The Red Sox are fortunate that four of those inning-ending leads came in the ninth inning of games.

 

In three of the four wins the Sox came back from deficits of five, three and five runs.

 

The Red Sox are 3-0 in starts by righthander Nathan Eovaldi, who has an ERA of 8.40 in 15 innings.

 

The Sox could gain ground this weekend against the one American League team with a worse run differential.

Edited April 12, 2019 by harmony

[Station 13]

Of the 117 innings the Red Sox have played this year only 12 ended with the Sox in the lead.

 

The Red Sox are fortunate that four of those inning-ending leads came in the ninth inning of games.

 

In three of the four wins the Sox came back from deficits of five, three and five runs.

 

The Red Sox are 3-0 in starts by righthander Nathan Eovaldi, who has an ERA of 8.40 in 15 innings.

 

The Sox could gain ground this weekend against the one American League team with a worse run differential.

 

Thanks for following the Sox so closely, are you sure you aren't a fan after hopping on last historic year?

[Station 13]

While offense and starting pitching is still finding their way, the bullpen has done remarkably well, better than the fabled legendary scumbags in the Bronx which has rack up 4 losses.

[Bellhorn04]

Of the 117 innings the Red Sox have played this year only 12 ended with the Sox in the lead.

 

The Red Sox are fortunate that four of those inning-ending leads came in the ninth inning of games.

 

In three of the four wins the Sox came back from deficits of five, three and five runs.

 

The Red Sox are 3-0 in starts by righthander Nathan Eovaldi, who has an ERA of 8.40 in 15 innings.

 

The Sox could gain ground this weekend against the one American League team with a worse run differential.

 

You should have seen what we did in Game 4 of the World Series last year.

 

This team never quits.

[Bellhorn04]

Of the 117 innings the Red Sox have played this year only 12 ended with the Sox in the lead.

 

The Red Sox are fortunate that four of those inning-ending leads came in the ninth inning of games.

 

In three of the four wins the Sox came back from deficits of five, three and five runs.

 

The actual W-L record is equal to the Pythagorean record. Therefore luck has evened out.

[iortiz]

And even if he doesn't he should be our CF'er. I'll post again what I said in my (only) post in the game thread:

 

I'll tell you what.... The guys in the booth are gushing about Moreland's double but JBJ makes the catch on that ball...every day. And if that catch is made - that 's the difference in the game. That's why I want JBJ in our outfield.

Good point of view Steve. 100% Agree!