A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[mvp 78]

How a Goldy deal affects Rendon, Donaldson, J.D.

 

J.D. Martinez, for example, can opt out of the final three years and $62.5 million of his deal with Boston. Should he post another MVP-type season, Martinez could decide to capitalize on the less-than-stellar market and take another shot a free agency, especially with some of the other big bats now off the board.

 

Paul Goldschmidt deal shakes up 2019 free agency

WWW.MLB.COM

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Another day, another extension. Two of them, actually. Blake Snell, the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner, agreed to a five-year, $50 million contract with the Rays on Thursday, a deal that will cover all three of his salary-arbitration years and one of his free-agent seasons. Later in the

 

Goldy signs 5/130 contract.

 

JD IS GONNA OPT OUT OF HIS 5/110 CONTRACT BECAUSE OF WHAT GOLDY GOT!!!!!!

 

LOL......................

[moonslav59]

Goldy signs 5/130 contract.

 

JD IS GONNA OPT OUT OF HIS 5/110 CONTRACT BECAUSE OF WHAT GOLDY GOT!!!!!!

 

LOL......................

 

I KNOW!

 

I expected Goldy to get more than that.

 

He's 31 (same as JD). He's been over .899 for 6 straight years. He has 3 GG awards- something JD will never come close to.

[notin]

Goldy signs 5/130 contract.

 

JD IS GONNA OPT OUT OF HIS 5/110 CONTRACT BECAUSE OF WHAT GOLDY GOT!!!!!!

 

LOL......................

 

Even if he does, he’s still more likely to come back to Boston, possibly at a lower AAV but with an extra year..

[BillyWilliams]

Even if he does, he’s still more likely to come back to Boston, possibly at a lower AAV but with an extra year..

 

And you know this how?

[notin]

And you know this how?

 

 

It’s engrained in my awesomeness.

 

And because JD had a limited market 2 years ago when he was the premier free agent available while coming off a second half that in itself was a great season. At 2 years older and in a market that has been heavily favoring sub-30 free agents, you think his market is expanding?

 

If JD opts out, Boston certainly steps to the top of the list of large market teams that need him. Wouldn’t you agree?

[BillyWilliams]

It’s engrained in my awesomeness.

 

And because JD had a limited market 2 years ago when he was the premier free agent available while coming off a second half that in itself was a great season. At 2 years older and in a market that has been heavily favoring sub-30 free agents, you think his market is expanding?

 

If JD opts out, Boston certainly steps to the top of the list of large market teams that need him. Wouldn’t you agree?

 

I'm not sure they step to "the top of the list" but they may be one of many teams in the hunt.

[notin]

I'm not sure they step to "the top of the list" but they may be one of many teams in the hunt.

 

 

They were the top of the list - and possibly the whole list - last time.

 

And failing to bring him back just increased the likelihood Bogaerts returns. Or the Sox sign Rendon.

 

I know you want to live in a world where players leave the Sox and they can only replace them from their farm, but that simply isn’t the case despite this one outlier off-season....

[mvp 78]

They were the top of the list - and possibly the whole list - last time.

 

And failing to bring him back just increased the likelihood Bogaerts returns. Or the Sox sign Rendon.

 

I know you want to live in a world where players leave the Sox and they can only replace them from their farm, but that simply isn’t the case despite this one outlier off-season....

 

All these guys are coming back and back and back and back.

[mvp 78]

And because JD had a limited market 2 years ago when he was the premier free agent available while coming off a second half that in itself was a great season. At 2 years older and in a market that has been heavily favoring sub-30 free agents, you think his market is expanding?

 

Get your logical reasoning out of here!

[BillyWilliams]

They were the top of the list - and possibly the whole list - last time.

 

And failing to bring him back just increased the likelihood Bogaerts returns. Or the Sox sign Rendon.

 

I know you want to live in a world where players leave the Sox and they can only replace them from their farm, but that simply isn’t the case despite this one outlier off-season....

 

We don't know that they were at the top of his list last time. We know they probably made the best offer.

[Slasher9]

the great news for JDM is that he chose the correct landing spot to get himself a ring in 2018. whether that was by "best offer" or by "top of his list". not sure if either really matters. usually those 2 end up being the same in the end. hence why the Boston Red Sox would love JDM to opt out next year and re-sign him to a lower AAV.

[moonslav59]

So, 2020...

 

Millions

31 Price

29 Sale

(22 JD opt out?)

17 Eovaldi

14 Pedey

5 Vaz____

Total :96M

 

Arbs

2019 Player Est 2019

20 Betts (3 of 3) ~29

9 JBJ (4 of 4) ~12

4 ERod (3 of 4) ~7

2 Barnes (2 of 3) ~5

1 Hembree (2 of 3) ~2

1 Workman (3 of 3) ~1

1 Swihart (2 of 4) ~1

m Beni (1 of 3) ~2

Total $59M

 

 

$155M for 13 players.

 

[Fan_since_Boggs]

A few guys you don't bring back in 2020:

Porcello

Holt

Nunez

Pearce

Moreland

 

And you replace all of them with league minimum salaries. There will be intense compeition for Porcello's spot: Johnson, Hernandez, Houck, and Shawaryn. One of the two utility spots belonging to Holt and Nunez goes to Lin (who will be out of options). Pearce and Moreland are replaced by either Chavis or Dalbec.

 

I guess Lin could take Nunez's roster spot and the Red Sox could try to resign Holt. I just wonder if some team is going to overpay for Holt, liking his versatility. But maybe not.

Edited March 23, 2019 by Fan_since_Boggs

[jacksonianmarch]

So, 2020...

 

Millions

31 Price

29 Sale

(22 JD opt out?)

17 Eovaldi

14 Pedey

5 Vaz____

Total :96M

 

Arbs

2019 Player Est 2019

20 Betts (3 of 3) ~29

9 JBJ (4 of 4) ~12

4 ERod (3 of 4) ~7

2 Barnes (2 of 3) ~5

1 Hembree (2 of 3) ~2

1 Workman (3 of 3) ~1

1 Swihart (2 of 4) ~1

m Beni (1 of 3) ~2

Total $59M

 

 

$155M for 13 players.

 

 

Take a look at 1st time arb eligible players of Beni’s caliber and rethink that number. He’s gonna get closer to $5 mil

[moonslav59]

Take a look at 1st time arb eligible players of Beni’s caliber and rethink that number. He’s gonna get closer to $5 mil

 

Okay, $157M for 13 players +$15M for player benefits= $172M. If you add 12 players at min wage, it's about $180M. The other 15 on the 40 man roster brings it to about $183M...

 

That leaves a few million to upgrade those min wage players, and once we reset, we may go back to $40M over, which would play for some major upgrades.

 

I still think we'll have a down year, when we reset, but it may not have to be more than 1-2 years.

 

[Slasher9]

No way betts gets $30mm next year. 25 maybe.

[moonslav59]

No way betts gets $30mm next year. 25 maybe.

 

Maybe Beni gets $5M and Betts gets $27M and my final number was about right.

[Nick]

Who is our next priority?

 

JD is set to make $23.75M in 2020. Then it drops to $19.375M

 

Is is slam dunk that he'll opt out after 2019? How much more can he garner in open market? Why didn't he get more last year? He had a stellar 2017 season, no?

 

I think he's as valuable to the team as Sale is in terms of intangibles and leadership in the clubhouse.

 

Don't think that gets unnoticed by Henry and DD.

[Nick]

What can we get for Betts after 2019 season?

 

Won't there be a club out there who goes ALL IN in 2020 season? Having Betts only for one year may seem detrimental in terms of trading away a top prospect or two but what if that is that is exactly what a club is looking? One year financial commitment of say $28M.

 

Major league ready shortstop along with both pitching and outfield prospects come to mind.

 

My dream scenario is to acquire starting shortstop and outfielder for Betts and then sign him as a free agent in 2021 after we reset for 2020.

Edited March 23, 2019 by Nick

[cp176]

Who is our next priority?

 

JD is set to make $23.75M in 2020. Then it drops to $19.375M

 

Is is slam dunk that he'll opt out after 2019? How much more can he garner in open market? Why didn't he get more last year? He had a stellar 2017 season, no?

 

I think he's as valuable to the team as Sale is in terms of intangibles and leadership in the clubhouse.

 

Don't think that gets unnoticed by Henry and DD.

 

I agree with you about the intangibles that both Sale and JD bring to the team. They are worth a lot of money. I don't think that a lot of people understand how important it is to have leaders like this. Raw talent which is for sure good to have isn't enough for me. I think that if JD performs like he probably will again this year, JH will make sure that he stays in Boston.

[Bellhorn04]

What can we get for Betts after 2019 season?

 

Won't there be a club out there who goes ALL IN in 2020 season? Having Betts only for one year may seem detrimental in terms of trading away a top prospect or two but what if that is that is exactly what a club is looking? One year financial commitment of say $28M.

 

Major league ready shortstop along with both pitching and outfield prospects come to mind.

 

My dream scenario is to acquire starting shortstop and outfielder for Betts and then sign him as a free agent in 2021 after we reset for 2020.

 

I think the Red Sox will be a contender in 2020, thus Betts will be part of the team.

 

I don't think Henry signed long term deals with Sale and Eovaldi in order to punt in 2020. I think he's of the mindset of being all in every chance you get. That's why he's a great owner.

[Bellhorn04]

No way betts gets $30mm next year. 25 maybe.

 

Prior to signing an extension, Nolan Arenado agreed to a $26 mill salary in his final arb year. He had initially asked for $30 mill and the Rockies offered $24 mill.

 

Based on that data, Mookie appears to be in line for at least $28 million methinks.

[moonslav59]

Assuming we lose Bogey & Porcello and are able to keep Betts, the questions then fall to JD, who might eat up a big chunk of the remaining spending budget vs JBJ. If we keep both, there might be just pennies left to fill any holes our farm can't fill.

[Bellhorn04]

Assuming we lose Bogey & Porcello and are able to keep Betts, the questions then fall to JD, who might eat up a big chunk of the remaining spending budget vs JBJ. If we keep both, there might be just pennies left to fill any holes our farm can't fill.

 

I think this extension for Sale casts doubt on the whole reset premise. Especially when you consider that JDM might NOT opt out. Do the math for 2020 if he doesn't opt out.

[jacksonianmarch]

The question for Henry is “at which point do LT penalties hurt?” Last year, they were escalated, but the base was 20%. This year, the base is 30%. Next year, it’s 50%. I’d anticipate a title more than makes up for the financial loss, but at what point does he decide to re-set. These long term deals do help short term, but you could be locked into LT hell past the primes of the players you’ve got under contract. That was where the Yanks were after 2012. We were above average, being over .500 every year and making the playoffs once in a 4 year stretch, yet never being good enough to really contend. I know no team wants that, but if the Sox are WS contenders for a couple years, then that makes the decline phase worth it. What it comes down to is the longer Henry tries to prop this up beyond this season, the longer the decline phase will be.

[moonslav59]

I think this extension for Sale casts doubt on the whole reset premise. Especially when you consider that JDM might NOT opt out. Do the math for 2020 if he doesn't opt out.

 

I did the math. We can reset and keep JD, if we let Bogey & Porcello go.

 

We won't have much for filling other needs and will rely on DHernandez, Chatham, Chavis/Dalbec and minor free agents for one year as we reset.

 

The, IMO, it will be back to big spending and high competitiveness within 1-2 years (hopefully).

[Bellhorn04]

I did the math. We can reset and keep JD, if we let Bogey & Porcello go.

 

We won't have much for filling other needs and will rely on DHernandez, Chatham, Chavis/Dalbec and minor free agents for one year as we reset.

 

The, IMO, it will be back to big spending and high competitiveness within 1-2 years (hopefully).

 

I'm not convinced it makes sense to reset/punt in a year when you've got so many high-priced, high-caliber players on your roster-Betts, JDM, Bradley, Sale, Price, Eovaldi. That's arguably a waste of money and opportunity.

 

We'll see!

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I think the Red Sox will resign Bogaerts and Betts but will let Porcello and Bradley Jr. leave. Bradley Jr.'s value is tied to his defense and defense is often the first thing to go.

 

I'm not sure how they will replace Bradley Jr., as there is no one in the system close enough. The Red Sox should have a pretty potent lineup, however, and thus can acquire a weak hitting, defensive stud for CF, a guy making league minimum salary.

Edited March 23, 2019 by Fan_since_Boggs

[notin]

Prior to signing an extension, Nolan Arenado agreed to a $26 mill salary in his final arb year. He had initially asked for $30 mill and the Rockies offered $24 mill.

 

Based on that data, Mookie appears to be in line for at least $28 million methinks.

 

 

I do think Arenado might be a better comp for Betts than Trout or Harper, largely due to age...

[notin]

I think the Red Sox will resign Bogaerts and Betts but will let Porcello and Bradley Jr. leave. Bradley Jr.'s value is tied to his defense and defense is often the first thing to go.

 

I'm not sure how they will replace Bradley Jr., as there is no one in the system close enough. The Red Sox should have a pretty potent lineup, however, and thus can acquire a weak hitting, defensive stud for CF, a guy making league minimum salary.

 

 

If the Sox just want a cheap defensive CF, those are not always tough to find. The Mets got Keon Broxton this off-season for next to nothing...