A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[kenmeister]

Alrighty, here's my definitions:

 

#1 pitcher: Averages at least 7 innings per start, 3 runs or less.

#2 pitcher: Averages at least 6.2 innings per start, 3.25 runs or less.

#3 pitcher: Averages at least 6.1 innings per start, 3.5 runs or less.

#4 pitcher: Averages at least 6 innings per start, 3.75 runs or less.

#5 pitcher: Averages at least 5 innings per start, 4 runs or less.

 

I feel like an 'ace' is a #1 pitcher who is closer to 2 runs or less allowed.

[Bellhorn04]

Alrighty, here's my definitions:

 

#1 pitcher: Averages at least 7 innings per start, 3 runs or less.

#2 pitcher: Averages at least 6.2 innings per start, 3.25 runs or less.

#3 pitcher: Averages at least 6.1 innings per start, 3.5 runs or less.

#4 pitcher: Averages at least 6 innings per start, 3.75 runs or less.

#5 pitcher: Averages at least 5 innings per start, 4 runs or less.

 

I feel like an 'ace' is a #1 pitcher who is closer to 2 runs or less allowed.

 

But no one averages 7 innings a start anymore.

[Kimmi]

I will gladly take a bite out of my hat if Pedroia comes back and contributes in any kind of substantive way to the team this year.

 

Dombrowski has already said that Pedroia will not be a full time player.

 

After being out for most of last season, it's difficult to know how Pedroia will respond.

 

He's one player that I won't count out, though.

[Kimmi]

The Sox have two rings since the last time the Yankees even won the division. If that's "spin" you live in a very different world from me.

 

Back to back to back to back!

 

Words of wisdom right here.

[moonslav59]

Dombrowski has already said that Pedroia will not be a full time player.

 

After being out for most of last season, it's difficult to know how Pedroia will respond.

 

He's one player that I won't count out, though.

 

Assuming good health, I guess they could DH him when JD rests or is in the OF, but Pearce may be pushing for more PAs through that same route.

[moonslav59]

If Pedey can give us 100 solid games and be ready for the playoffs, it could be a huge boost. Our 2B was pretty crappy last year.

 

22nd in WAR

 

17th UZR/150 (thanks, in part to Kinsler)

 

We can hope Pedey can improve on our 2B OPS of .658 and the defense from 2018.

[kenmeister]

But no one averages 7 innings a start anymore.

 

 

That’s sad. At any rate, for the Sox it might because our starters look to be very solid and the bullpen more suspect, so hopefully starters won’t be pulled early.

[moonslav59]

That’s sad. At any rate, for the Sox it might because our starters look to be very solid and the bullpen more suspect, so hopefully starters won’t be pulled early.

 

It's been this way for a while.

 

I guess there are no aces anymore.

[harmony]

For what it's worth, the Red Sox placed no prospects among the top 132 compiled by FanGraphs columnists Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-top-100-prospects/

An apparent Red Sox fan has posted consensus prospect rankings:

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PyI0tyoCesi_jyQ1D8NIqDmrYSfrk0_gzINCP1Ip_rs/edit#gid=405455672

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2019/1/29/18202603/top-100-prospects-consensus-rankings

[moonslav59]

An apparent Red Sox fan has posted consensus prospect rankings:

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PyI0tyoCesi_jyQ1D8NIqDmrYSfrk0_gzINCP1Ip_rs/edit#gid=405455672

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2019/1/29/18202603/top-100-prospects-consensus-rankings

 

Thanks for the links.

 

154 different players were selected for varying top 100 lists. Not surprising, since once you get to #60 or 70, it's pretty much a crap shoot.

[notin]

But no one averages 7 innings a start anymore.

 

 

It is rare, but it has happened as recently as 2017 with Corey Kluber (29 starts, 203.2 IP). Sale also averaged 7IP per start in 2016 and both Kershaw and Keuchel did in 2015.

 

So as far as I can tell, only 4 times in the past 4 years (min 200 IP, or 29 starts). It is pretty rare...

[kenmeister]

It is rare, but it has happened as recently as 2017 with Corey Kluber (29 starts, 203.2 IP). Sale also averaged 7IP per start in 2016 and both Kershaw and Keuchel did in 2015.

 

So as far as I can tell, only 4 times in the past 4 years (min 200 IP, or 29 starts). It is pretty rare...

 

Now you have me curious. ESPN goes back to 2000:

 

Mike Mussina, 34 starts, 237.2 IP - almost 7

David Wells, 35 starts, 229.2 IP - 6.5

Kenny Rogers, 34 starts, 227.1 IP - 6.7

Brad Radke, 34 starts, 226.2 IP - 6.7

Sidney Ponson, 32 starts, 222.0 IP - almost 7

 

On the other hand:

Roger Clemens, 1987, 36 starts, 281.2 IP - almost 8 innings a start

 

I think I should change my criteria because an "average" is tricky. Sometimes the game is a blow out and the ace is removed early. Some games are at the end of the season and the ace is purposefully rested. Maybe I should just rank #1-#5 starters on percentage of quality starts. Maybe:

 

#1 starters: 75% quality

#2 starters: 65% quality

#3 starters: 50% quality

#4 starters: 40% quality

#5 starters: 25% quality

[kenmeister]

Iglesias? Really? First of all, the guy can't hit. Secondly, he's not all that good defensively. He has a penchant for making great plays but can't make the routine ones dependably.

 

At least that's what I've always heard.

 

He hit .269 last year with little home run power but 30 doubles, so he's not a dead spot in the lineup. I'm pretty sure his defense is still widely regarded but I could be wrong. I highly, highly doubt the Sox will be able to keep Bogaerts, so we'll need a shortstop for 2020. Lin is the in-house option, and I hope he can do the job, but if he can't, Iglesias would solve the problem. Take the $20 million saved on the differential between Bogaerts and Iglesias/Lin and keep Chris Sale.

[Slasher9]

He hit .269 last year with little home run power but 30 doubles, so he's not a dead spot in the lineup. I'm pretty sure his defense is still widely regarded but I could be wrong. I highly, highly doubt the Sox will be able to keep Bogaerts, so we'll need a shortstop for 2020. Lin is the in-house option, and I hope he can do the job, but if he can't, Iglesias would solve the problem. Take the $20 million saved on the differential between Bogaerts and Iglesias/Lin and keep Chris Sale.

 

that was dewey being sarcastic. he is the leader of the iglesias fan club.

[Bellhorn04]

It is surprising that Iglesias hasn't signed with anyone. But welcome to the new sucky offseasons.

[notin]

He hit .269 last year with little home run power but 30 doubles, so he's not a dead spot in the lineup. I'm pretty sure his defense is still widely regarded but I could be wrong. I highly, highly doubt the Sox will be able to keep Bogaerts, so we'll need a shortstop for 2020. Lin is the in-house option, and I hope he can do the job, but if he can't, Iglesias would solve the problem. Take the $20 million saved on the differential between Bogaerts and Iglesias/Lin and keep Chris Sale.

 

 

Actually C.J. Chatham might be the in-house option if he does well in AA this year...

[mvp 78]

It is surprising that Iglesias hasn't signed with anyone. But welcome to the new sucky offseasons.

 

Cold stove season.

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

 

Would Bogaerts be open to signing with the Sox before the season? ‘Sure...The Sox have treated me amazing so far...We’ll see what happens.’

[FredLynn]

@alexspeier

 

Would Bogaerts be open to signing with the Sox before the season? ‘Sure...The Sox have treated me amazing so far...We’ll see what happens.’

 

Interpretation: " Sure. Show me the money".

[moonslav59]

Now you have me curious. ESPN goes back to 2000:

 

Mike Mussina, 34 starts, 237.2 IP - almost 7

David Wells, 35 starts, 229.2 IP - 6.5

Kenny Rogers, 34 starts, 227.1 IP - 6.7

Brad Radke, 34 starts, 226.2 IP - 6.7

Sidney Ponson, 32 starts, 222.0 IP - almost 7

 

On the other hand:

Roger Clemens, 1987, 36 starts, 281.2 IP - almost 8 innings a start

 

I think I should change my criteria because an "average" is tricky. Sometimes the game is a blow out and the ace is removed early. Some games are at the end of the season and the ace is purposefully rested. Maybe I should just rank #1-#5 starters on percentage of quality starts. Maybe:

 

#1 starters: 75% quality

#2 starters: 65% quality

#3 starters: 50% quality

#4 starters: 40% quality

#5 starters: 25% quality

 

Quality starts should be changed to something like this:

 

5+ IP 2 or less runs

6.1+ IP 3 runs or less

8+ IP 4 runs or less

 

If letting up 3 runs in 6 IP- a 4.50 ERA, why isn't 4 runs in 8 IP a quality start? At least that should be added.

 

I get the 5 IP puts a strain on your pen, but 2 runs in 5 IP is an ERA of 3.60, which is so much better than 4.50 that it makes up for the 1 IP less.

 

[kenmeister]

Quality starts should be changed to something like this:

 

5+ IP 2 or less runs

6.1+ IP 3 runs or less

8+ IP 4 runs or less

 

If letting up 3 runs in 6 IP- a 4.50 ERA, why isn't 4 runs in 8 IP a quality start? At least that should be added.

 

I get the 5 IP puts a strain on your pen, but 2 runs in 5 IP is an ERA of 3.60, which is so much better than 4.50 that it makes up for the 1 IP less.

 

 

I'd be down with that. Keeps the ERA consistent.

[mvp 78]

@ChrisCotillo

 

Xander Bogaerts isn’t counting out Dustin Pedroia. “He has the biggest mouth and he backs it up. If he said he could fly, I’d expect him to fly.”

[Bellhorn04]

@ChrisCotillo

 

Xander Bogaerts isn’t counting out Dustin Pedroia. “He has the biggest mouth and he backs it up. If he said he could fly, I’d expect him to fly.”

 

XB bringing the personality! I like it.

[moonslav59]

Now you have me curious. ESPN goes back to 2000:

 

Mike Mussina, 34 starts, 237.2 IP - almost 7

David Wells, 35 starts, 229.2 IP - 6.5

Kenny Rogers, 34 starts, 227.1 IP - 6.7

Brad Radke, 34 starts, 226.2 IP - 6.7

Sidney Ponson, 32 starts, 222.0 IP - almost 7

 

On the other hand:

Roger Clemens, 1987, 36 starts, 281.2 IP - almost 8 innings a start

 

I think I should change my criteria because an "average" is tricky. Sometimes the game is a blow out and the ace is removed early. Some games are at the end of the season and the ace is purposefully rested. Maybe I should just rank #1-#5 starters on percentage of quality starts. Maybe:

 

#1 starters: 75% quality

#2 starters: 65% quality

#3 starters: 50% quality

#4 starters: 40% quality

#5 starters: 25% quality

 

Maybe an ace could be...

 

ACE: 180+ IP & 3.50 ERA (Last year, 20 met this criteria)

 

#2: 160+ IP & 4.00 ERA (Last year 23 met this but not ace criteria)

 

#3: 140+ IP & 4.50 ERA (Last year 26 met this criteria but not the higher ones) 88 pitchers had 140+ IP

 

#4: 120+ IP & 4.80 ERA (Last year 18 pitchers met this criteria) 106 pitchers has 120+ IP

 

#5: 100+ IP & 5.00 ERA (Last year 22 pitcher met this criteria) 112 out of 128 pitchers met one of these criteria.

 

To get to a sample size of 150 (30 teams x 5 starters, we have to drop the IP to about 80 IP (145 last year). That shows just how important IP'd are.

 

Only 32 pitchers had 180+ IP last year (13 with 200+).

 

If you go strictly by groups of 30 to determine #1, 2, 3 , and 5's, this would be the ERA cut-offs at 70+ IP (155 pitchers) in 2018:

 

1's: 1.70-3.31

2's: 3.31-3.77

3's: 3.78-4.21

4's: 4.25-4.70

5's: 4.71-5.77

 

[Bellhorn04]

ACE: 180+ IP & 3.50 ERA (Last year, 20 met this criteria)

 

Make it 3.50 equivalent ERA+ or ERA-, and it's a done deal.

 

Actually, 20 'aces' seems just about right.

[BillyWilliams]

Dustin Pedroia on knee surgery: 'Knowing what I know now, I wouldn't have done it'

 

JOHN TOMASE

FEBRUARY 15, 2019 - 10:09 AM

 

FORT MYERS, Fla. -- If Dustin Pedroia could do it all again, he wouldn't.

 

The Red Sox second baseman, attempting yet another comeback from extensive knee surgery, acknowledged on Friday that he'd make a different choice if confronted with the same options.

 

"No, I wouldn't have done it," Pedroia said. "I just, I mean, I don't regret doing it, but looking back and knowing what I know now, I wouldn't have done it. You know what I mean?"

 

Pedroia underwent cartilage restoration surgery on his left knee shortly after the 2017 season, including a graft of donor tissue from a cadaver. He was supposed to return on Memorial Day last year, but appeared in only three games before shutting it down.

 

And so now here we are again, with the Red Sox hoping Pedroia can play 125 games, but reality suggesting that could be a challenge. Given everything he knows about the last two years, Pedroia would've opted for rehab.

 

"Yeah, change rehab styles, treatment styles, things like that," he said. "It's a complicated surgery. The cartilage in my knee is great now, but the graft is the thing. You're putting somebody else's bone in your body. To get that to incorporate fully, there's so many things that -- and going into it I didn't know all that stuff. I thought they were like, 'You have a -- you tore this, we can fix it.' I'm like, 'Oh that sounds great.' But I didn't know. I didn't go to medical school, which I probably could have, but I didn't know all that stuff at the time."

 

Knuckleballer Steven Wright recently admitted he accepts that his knee will never be 100 percent again. Pedroia was asked if he feels similarly.

 

"Do I get my knee 100 percent?" he replied. "Well, (expletive), it ain't even my knee. It's somebody else's, bro. My right knee is 100 percent."

 

Could the other guy's knee be 100 percent?

 

"No, they wouldn't tell me," he said with a laugh.

 

He's feeling positive at the moment, taking groundballs and batting practice.

 

"I just look at it like I'm OK, but I have to be smart because if I play out of control or do something, I could wake up the next day and it could be bad," he said. "I don't want to work for as long as I have to mess that up. I know everyone thinks I'm crazy and I won't listen to anybody, but that's not the case. I want to make sure that I'm on the field and doing all I can to help us win."

 

As for his ability to play a full season, or two-thirds of a season, or no season at all, Pedroia can't think beyond tomorrow.

 

"I've been around long enough to know, especially around here, you can't look that far ahead," he said. "I remember they were saying that in 2016, too, and I got 11 straight hits and played for like 40 straight games. You never know. I could wake up tomorrow and not be able to play anymore. But I'm confident where I am now. I'm excited. We have a good plan in place. Have to be smart. Don't get emotional. And just enjoy what I love doing."

 

https://weei.radio.com/blogs/john-tomase/dustin-pedroia-boston-red-sox-second-baseman-cartilage-restoration-surgery-looking

[mvp 78]

XB bringing the personality! I like it.

 

I feel like he's a guy I don't hear enough from! I see a lot of pictures of him at community events. Seems like a good dude.

[BillyWilliams]

Dan Clark

‏

Verified account

 

@DanClarkSports

5h5 hours ago

More

If Manny Machado signs with the Yankees, I cannot wait for the inevitable bench-clearer against the Red Sox. I hope he knocks out Dustin Pedroia too.

[Bellhorn04]

Dan Clark

‏

Verified account

 

@DanClarkSports

5h5 hours ago

More

If Manny Machado signs with the Yankees, I cannot wait for the inevitable bench-clearer against the Red Sox. I hope he knocks out Dustin Pedroia too.

 

Major WTF?

[mvp 78]

Major WTF?

 

WTF is a Dan Clark sports? BW loves following these nobodies. I don't get it.