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A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

moonslav59

By moonslav59
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jacksonianmarch GOAT

jacksonianmarch

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wright almost made the playoff roster. He was scratched at the last minute. Maybe, just maybe, it's not as bad as it seems.

 

I have never said johnson and velazquez were great, but they are our 7th and 8th starters. They are "good" for those roles. You said they were "not good." how many teams have better 7th and 8th starters?

 

he had surgery after the playoffs!!!

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dgalehouse FCL Red Sox

dgalehouse

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Here is the latest expert prognosis on Wright's health from Sox chief medical officer , Dr. Vinnie Boombatz ; " Steven should be okay , as long as that pesky knee holds up ."
jacksonianmarch GOAT

jacksonianmarch

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That's the thing. He had microfracture surgery. Then came back, got hurt again and needed another procedure. Sounds like Pedroia, who everyone here is appropriately cautiously optimistic about in terms of his return. Wright is a year younger than Pedroia, had his most recent surgical procedure 4 months AFTER Pedroia did and all of a sudden, he's staunch starter depth. You have no idea he is even gonna play
vegasbob Portland Sea Dogs

vegasbob

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The speculation and prognostication is interesting and fun, but the reality is that the Red Sox and Yankees will each have between 42 and 48 players on the 25 man active squad over the course of the season. Overall depth and mid season acquisition successes will outweigh all the pre-ST discussions about who wins big this year.
moonslav59 GOAT

moonslav59

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That's the thing. He had microfracture surgery. Then came back, got hurt again and needed another procedure. Sounds like Pedroia, who everyone here is appropriately cautiously optimistic about in terms of his return. Wright is a year younger than Pedroia, had his most recent surgical procedure 4 months AFTER Pedroia did and all of a sudden, he's staunch starter depth. You have no idea he is even gonna play

 

While true, we also have no idea about Paxton's back flaring up again or not. If he was a Red Sox, you'd be calling him a walking time bomb.

 

Paxton missed five weeks -- three with back inflammation and two after a line drive nailed his left forearm. He missed two months in 2017 (forearm strain, pectoral strain); two weeks in 2016 (line drive to the elbow); nearly four months in 2015 (left finger tendon strain); and four months in 2014 (lat strain).

Kimmi Boston Red Sox

Kimmi

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While not a popular opinion, I think Leon is the one catcher they should keep.

 

While I’m probably wrong here, I think it should be Swihart vs Vazquez or the starting job. If Swihart wins, trade Vazquez. If Vazquez wins, try to trade Swihart or simply DFA him late enough in Spring Training that most teams will largely have their rosters set and won’t claim him...

 

'Wins' based on what? Spring training results?

 

I am not down with that.

notin MVP

notin

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
'Wins' based on what? Spring training results?

 

I am not down with that.

 

 

Whatever criteria they use. Dombrowski has said Swihart can compete for a starting catcher job. Presumably this means he can do something to win it...

jacksonianmarch GOAT

jacksonianmarch

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While true, we also have no idea about Paxton's back flaring up again or not. If he was a Red Sox, you'd be calling him a walking time bomb.

 

Paxton missed five weeks -- three with back inflammation and two after a line drive nailed his left forearm. He missed two months in 2017 (forearm strain, pectoral strain); two weeks in 2016 (line drive to the elbow); nearly four months in 2015 (left finger tendon strain); and four months in 2014 (lat strain).

 

Paxton misses time every year, yet I doubt anyone is worried about his stuff suffering. The worry with Wright is that he’s got a knee that is never going to be back to what it was. The issue with Sale is he came back from a shoulder injury with a major drop in velocity and no explanation. Both of those issues point towards something either chronic or more concerning. I’m sure Paxton is gonna spend some time on the DL this year. As long as he’s ready for the postseason and still throwing gas by then, I’ll be happy

moonslav59 GOAT

moonslav59

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Paxton misses time every year, yet I doubt anyone is worried about his stuff suffering. The worry with Wright is that he’s got a knee that is never going to be back to what it was. The issue with Sale is he came back from a shoulder injury with a major drop in velocity and no explanation. Both of those issues point towards something either chronic or more concerning. I’m sure Paxton is gonna spend some time on the DL this year. As long as he’s ready for the postseason and still throwing gas by then, I’ll be happy

 

Wright's our 6th starter not our #2. Yes, I am concerned about him.

 

Sale went out once and came back throwing very hard, then he went out again. When he returned his velocity was down. but he was out for a long time and the sample size was kind of small upon his return. Yes, I am concerned about him, too.

 

I'm concerned about Price and Eovaldi, too, but I think Price has shown signs he has reinvented himself as a pitcher not a thrower. He could actually do better this year than last.

 

My point was both teams have health concerns, but you seem to act like ours will all turn out badly and yours will turn out better. You may end up being right, but health histories and age curves make me think we have a better chance of better health and rotation performance in 2019 than the Yanks do.

 

I think most projection services do and will agree that our rotation is better.

 

moonslav59 GOAT

moonslav59

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Your rotation is better because of one guy. Our 2-5 is better than your 2-5, IMO and in the stats from last year.

 

Oh, so now it's about just last year's stats.

 

A while ago, you were saying we can't count on Betts and JD to have equal or better years. I guess last year only counts when it's in your favor.

 

Also, I rarely go by just last year's numbers, but I can see why you'd want to for the rotation rather than the offense.

 

Paxton had his career high IP and best WHIP last year. He's sure to be great in 2019.

 

Happ has blown away his earlier career numbers with his very fine ages 32-35 four year stretch. He has to be great again in 2019.

 

CC Sabathia has seen his ERA go down for 3 straight years. He turns 39 this year, but it's a lock he keeps getting better in 2019.

 

Tanaka's 2018 ERA was a run better than 2017. It's a lock he repeats 2018 not 2017 in 2019!

 

Severino's down second half of 2018 must be swept under the carpet. Let's just say, he must have been tipping his pitches. He'll be the Cy Young winner in 2019!

 

Let's forget about Price finding himself, and Eovaldi becoming a beast. We can only look at their total 2018 season as an indicator of what 2019 will be. Forget how they ended 2018.

 

Except for Sale, of course. We have to just look at his end of the season and forget the beginning.

 

Forget ERod had his best year. Chalk Porcello up for another 4.28 ERA not 3.15.

 

Our 5 in 2018 with the Sox

ERA Pitcher WHIP

2.11 Sale 0.861

3.22 Eovaldi 1.27

3.58 Price 1.14

3.79 ERod 1.27

4.28 Porcello 1.78

 

with Yanks

2.69 Happ 1.05

(Paxton)

3.39 Severino 1.14

3.65 CC Sab 1.31

3.75 Tanaka 1.13

 

Yankee starters last year 4.05/1.259

Red Sox starters in 2018 3.77/1.213

 

Yes, you gained Paxton and a full year of Happ, but we gained a full year of Eovaldi and ERod and maybe Sale and lost Pom (6.31/1.82 in 11 GS)

 

The Yanks lost ...

4.90 Gray 1.49

4.14 Lynn 1.35

(German? 5.57/1.33)

 

I like our 5 just fine. I also like our 6-8 starters.

 

Let the games begin.

notin MVP

notin

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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The Red Sox are shopping catchers and seeking rotation depth, according to this MLB Trade Rumors summary of a subscription-only report from Sean McAdams of the Boston Sports Journal:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/02/red-sox-still-shopping-catchers-seeking-rotation-depth.html

 

 

Swihart to Cincy for the recently DFAd Jose Lopez might have been a fair trade. But I guess DD isn’t as big of as fan of the former Reds’ top ten prospect...

moonslav59 GOAT

moonslav59

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It's hard to know which GM, if any, wants Swihart, and if one or more do want him, they may be waiting (hoping) we just DFA him at some point, and they can get him for free.

 

If it was me, assuming we do not want to go with 3 catchers, I'd trade him for the best we can get, even if I think he's better than what we get back. Get it over with. DFA him, if nobody wants him.

 

(I'm okay with going with 3 catchers, since Swihart offers some depth at other positions, and Pedey's health is highly questionable.)

harmony FCL Red Sox

harmony

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It's hard to know which GM, if any, wants Swihart, and if one or more do want him, they may be waiting (hoping) we just DFA him at some point, and they can get him for free.

 

If it was me, assuming we do not want to go with 3 catchers, I'd trade him for the best we can get, even if I think he's better than what we get back. Get it over with. DFA him, if nobody wants him.

 

(I'm okay with going with 3 catchers, since Swihart offers some depth at other positions, and Pedey's health is highly questionable.)

If Blake Swihart clears waivers the Red Sox can outright him to the minors without his consent because he lacks the three years of MLB service required to veto an outright to the minors. Alternatively, the Red Sox could release Swihart if his clears waivers.

 

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/designate-for-assignment

 

My questions are: Will the Red Sox still owe Swihart his 2019 salary of $910,000 and, if so, does that amount count against the luxury tax calculation? Can a team release an arbitration eligible player during Spring Training for a fraction of the player's agreed-upon salary? If not, after a release can another team sign Swihart for the league minimum with the Red Sox paying the balance of the salary?

 

These scenarios offer the intersection of several complicated rules.

jacksonianmarch GOAT

jacksonianmarch

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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If they cut him, only a percentage counts against the lux cap. If they DFA him and he’s picked up, only the prorated portion counts to lux tax (a few days, essentially nothing). If they DFA him and then assign him to the minors, his entire but goes off the lux tax calculation.
Slasher9 Worcester Red Sox

Slasher9

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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Your rotation is better because of one guy. Our 2-5 is better than your 2-5, IMO and in the stats from last year.

 

i think you said the same thing the last 3 seasons.....i think there is a "blind squirrel" analogy that fits....

Slasher9 Worcester Red Sox

Slasher9

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I guess that's why they sell the most merchandise by far!

 

i'm not sure how much them having to sell all of those AL East Division Winner tshirts to 3rd world countries count?

NY Yankees 2018 AL East Champs

NY Yankees 2017 AL East Champs

NY Yankees 2016 AL East Champs

NY Yankees 2015 AL East Champs

NY Yankees 2014 AL East Champs

NY Yankees 2013 AL East Champs

 

thats a lot of shirts......

BillyWilliams Draft Eligible

BillyWilliams

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
i'm not sure how much them having to sell all of those AL East Division Winner tshirts to 3rd world countries count?

NY Yankees 2018 AL East Champs

NY Yankees 2017 AL East Champs

NY Yankees 2016 AL East Champs

NY Yankees 2015 AL East Champs

NY Yankees 2014 AL East Champs

NY Yankees 2013 AL East Champs

 

thats a lot of shirts......

 

I think you are talking about the 19-0 patriots t shirts that have clothed big papi's hometown..........

mvp 78 GOAT

mvp 78

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
That's the thing. He had microfracture surgery. Then came back, got hurt again and needed another procedure. Sounds like Pedroia, who everyone here is appropriately cautiously optimistic about in terms of his return. Wright is a year younger than Pedroia, had his most recent surgical procedure 4 months AFTER Pedroia did and all of a sudden, he's staunch starter depth. You have no idea he is even gonna play

 

Pedroia is going to be ready and he'll be in the All Star game.

Bellhorn04 MVP

Bellhorn04

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
NY Yankees 2018 AL East Champs

 

I've seen some Yankee fans on another forum jokingly refer to their team as '2018 Luxury Tax Champs'. :D

 

(Yes, some Yankee fans actually have a sense of humor.)

mvp 78 GOAT

mvp 78

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
That's either blind homerism or wishful thinking considering the talent at 2nd base in the AL.............

 

Top 3 WAR in 2018 was Merrifield, Altuve and Lowrie.

 

Lowrie has an up and down career and won't have a WAR above 4 this year. I think Merrifield will play more like 2017, still good but not great. Altuve is better than Pedroia for sure. When Pedroia has a resurgent season, the Sox fans are going to hammer that vote in the ballot box. Will he start the game? Not sure. Will he be on the field at some point, most definitely.

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