A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[moonslav59]

I am not a fan of weakening our rotation to strengthen our bullpen.

 

That can never be a good idea.

 

To those who think we must upgrade the pen, I ask again, if we have only $3M to spend, what position do we weaken (via trade) to make our pen better?

 

I'm sure, if we have Lin as our starting SS and Kimbrel as our closer, we'd be hearing about how stupid it is to have such a great team with such a big weakness at such an important position.

[notin]

That can never be a good idea.

 

To those who think we must upgrade the pen, I ask again, if we have only $3M to spend, what position do we weaken (via trade) to make our pen better?

 

I'm sure, if we have Lin as our starting SS and Kimbrel as our closer, we'd be hearing about how stupid it is to have such a great team with such a big weakness at such an important position.

 

 

Trade Vazquez for an arm.

 

Leon is essentially the same player and give Swihart a chance.

 

And you might even get a decent reliever for Vazquez, unlike Swihart...

[Bellhorn04]

Trade Vazquez for an arm.

 

Leon is essentially the same player and give Swihart a chance.

 

And you might even get a decent reliever for Vazquez, unlike Swihart...

 

Or trade Swihart plus Chavis, something like that?

[moonslav59]

Or trade Swihart plus Chavis, something like that?

 

I'd rather do this (or sub Dalbec for Chavis).

 

I'd also float Johnson or Velazquez (with Swihart and/or Chavis/Dalbec), if that would get us a better pen arm.

[notin]

Or trade Swihart plus Chavis, something like that?

 

Who do you suppose has more trade value - Chavis or Vazquez?

[notin]

I'd rather do this (or sub Dalbec for Chavis).

 

I'd also float Johnson or Velazquez (with Swihart and/or Chavis/Dalbec), if that would get us a better pen arm.

 

Whoa!! Slow down, big spender!!!

 

 

You're trying to trade four quarters for a dollar. While it works down at your local bank, it's not so efficient in MLB...

[moonslav59]

Whoa!! Slow down, big spender!!!

 

 

You're trying to trade four quarters for a dollar. While it works down at your local bank, it's not so efficient in MLB...

 

I'm offering 3 quarters for 50 cents.

 

Johnson OR Velazquez

Swihart

Chavis or Dalbec

 

3 players not 4.

 

I'm not asking for LeClerc for this offer. I'm hoping we get something decent.

 

Most likely, we trade 1or 2 from the list above for a RP'er- not 3, but my point is we could offer 3 and not be terribly hurt in depth or future outlooks.

Edited January 26, 2019 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Who do you suppose has more trade value - Chavis or Vazquez?

 

I think Vaz does right now. I don't think GMs get scared off by one bad year. I also think there's some doubts about Chavis due to the PED affects on his minor league numbers.

 

I would not trade Vaz, because I have little faith in Swihart in any meaningful role as a catcher in 2019.

 

[notin]

 

I would not trade Vaz, because I have little faith in Swihart in any meaningful role as a catcher in 2019.

 

 

I would. And my reasons are simple.

 

1) Leon is as good defensively as Vazquez and Sale and Price work better with Leon.

2) While Vazquez should be a better hitter, the catcher bats ninth for this team anyway.

3) His AAV is actually the highest of the three

4) If the Sox are hellbent on keeping Swihart, at some point it needs to be justified with more playing time than a third string catcher typically gets.

5) I have a little faith in Swihart defensively and offensively. At least for now.

6) And most important, I think Vazquez can bring back a decent return...

[moonslav59]

I would. And my reasons are simple.

 

1) Leon is as good defensively as Vazquez and Sale and Price work better with Leon.

That's a reason to keep Leon not to trade Vaz.

 

2) While Vazquez should be a better hitter, the catcher bats ninth for this team anyway.

Vaz might hit 200 points higher than Leon next year- 9 slot or not, that's huge.

 

3) His AAV is actually the highest of the three.

Legit reason. We could trade Vaz for a cheap RP'er then use the money to get another one.

 

4) If the Sox are hellbent on keeping Swihart, at some point it needs to be justified with more playing time than a third string catcher typically gets.

They are not hellbent. He will be traded, soon.

 

5) I have a little faith in Swihart defensively and offensively. At least for now.

This is a reason to keep Vaz. "Little faith" is not good enough.

 

6) And most important, I think Vazquez can bring back a decent return...

Certainly better than the other catchers, but the hole opened will be worse than the hole filled in the pen, IMO.

[notin]

I would. And my reasons are simple.

 

1) Leon is as good defensively as Vazquez and Sale and Price work better with Leon.

That's a reason to keep Leon not to trade Vaz.

 

2) While Vazquez should be a better hitter, the catcher bats ninth for this team anyway.

Vaz might hit 200 points higher than Leon next year- 9 slot or not, that's huge.

 

3) His AAV is actually the highest of the three.

Legit reason. We could trade Vaz for a cheap RP'er then use the money to get another one.

 

4) If the Sox are hellbent on keeping Swihart, at some point it needs to be justified with more playing time than a third string catcher typically gets.

They are not hellbent. He will be traded, soon.

 

5) I have a little faith in Swihart defensively and offensively. At least for now.

This is a reason to keep Vaz. "Little faith" is not good enough.

 

6) And most important, I think Vazquez can bring back a decent return...

Certainly better than the other catchers, but the hole opened will be worse than the hole filled in the pen, IMO.

 

I think you're overestimating Vazquez' offensive skills. 200 points, which I assume you mean OPS? Last year Leon was one of the worst hitters in MLB last year. For all players with 200 or more plate appearances, he did have the 2nd worst OPS. But Vazquez was the 7th worst. Leon did have the lower LD%, but it was uncharacteristically low, and typically both players are around 24-26%. Both also typically have the same hard it %. As hitters, they are typically more equal than many seem to realize. The two are the same player.

 

Why not actually give Swihart a chance? The Sox have had ample opportunities to trade him, and so far, DD has been reluctanct, probably becuase no one will give him anything. As a backup catcher, he might play 30 games a year, which is more than he will play as 3rd supersub off the bench. We've seen he can throw. His game calling and pitch framing probably need some work, but that goes for a lot of catchers.

 

And right now the Sox bullpen is Barnes, Brasier, Hembree and 4 question marks. That's not a small hole we are talking about. The bullpen will pitch 600 innings a year, and those three might handle 180. That leaves 420 undetermined innings, with roles determined by the personnel we have. And 420 bullpen innings is more important than the 150-250 at-bats from the catcher spot you are worried about. (Yes the new reliever(s) won't have all 420, but there is a trickle down effect in their roles.)..

[Bellhorn04]

I would. And my reasons are simple.

 

1) Leon is as good defensively as Vazquez and Sale and Price work better with Leon.

2) While Vazquez should be a better hitter, the catcher bats ninth for this team anyway.

3) His AAV is actually the highest of the three

4) If the Sox are hellbent on keeping Swihart, at some point it needs to be justified with more playing time than a third string catcher typically gets.

5) I have a little faith in Swihart defensively and offensively. At least for now.

6) And most important, I think Vazquez can bring back a decent return...

 

All reasonable points.

[oldtimer]

I would. And my reasons are simple.

 

1) Leon is as good defensively as Vazquez and Sale and Price work better with Leon.

That's a reason to keep Leon not to trade Vaz.

 

2) While Vazquez should be a better hitter, the catcher bats ninth for this team anyway.

Vaz might hit 200 points higher than Leon next year- 9 slot or not, that's huge.

 

3) His AAV is actually the highest of the three.

Legit reason. We could trade Vaz for a cheap RP'er then use the money to get another one.

 

4) If the Sox are hellbent on keeping Swihart, at some point it needs to be justified with more playing time than a third string catcher typically gets.

They are not hellbent. He will be traded, soon.

 

5) I have a little faith in Swihart defensively and offensively. At least for now.

This is a reason to keep Vaz. "Little faith" is not good enough.

 

6) And most important, I think Vazquez can bring back a decent return...

Certainly better than the other catchers, but the hole opened will be worse than the hole filled in the pen, IMO.

 

I don't think the Red Sox have made the decision on which two catchers to keep. I would keep Vaz but am uncertain whether Leon should stay. He is solid on defense but a black hole on offense. Don't hear a lot of rumors flying around about the catching situation.

[harmony]

Yes, but Yankee fans should not still be bragging about having a top 10 farm, right?

An anonymous scout reportedly still views the Yankees with a Top 10 farm system:

 

https://www.nj.com/yankees/2019/01/what-to-make-of-yankees-farm-system-which-has-only-2-in-baseball-prospectus-top-101.html

[moonslav59]

I think you're overestimating Vazquez' offensive skills. 200 points, which I assume you mean OPS? Last year Leon was one of the worst hitters in MLB last year. For all players with 200 or more plate appearances, he did have the 2nd worst OPS. But Vazquez was the 7th worst. Leon did have the lower LD%, but it was uncharacteristically low, and typically both players are around 24-26%. Both also typically have the same hard it %. As hitters, they are typically more equal than many seem to realize. The two are the same player.

 

Why not actually give Swihart a chance? The Sox have had ample opportunities to trade him, and so far, DD has been reluctanct, probably becuase no one will give him anything. As a backup catcher, he might play 30 games a year, which is more than he will play as 3rd supersub off the bench. We've seen he can throw. His game calling and pitch framing probably need some work, but that goes for a lot of catchers.

 

And right now the Sox bullpen is Barnes, Brasier, Hembree and 4 question marks. That's not a small hole we are talking about. The bullpen will pitch 600 innings a year, and those three might handle 180. That leaves 420 undetermined innings, with roles determined by the personnel we have. And 420 bullpen innings is more important than the 150-250 at-bats from the catcher spot you are worried about. (Yes the new reliever(s) won't have all 420, but there is a trickle down effect in their roles.)..

 

If we trade Vaz, Swihart will play more than 30 games. That frightens me, and it should frighten every Sox fan. Look at how our SP'er do when he catches. Maybe, it's just a fluke. Maybe with time, they'd grow accustomed to him and do well. I'm not willing to risk it.

 

That brings us to Leon, assuming we trade Vaz. My 200 point possibility was based on the assumption that either Vaz or Leon would catch 110-115 games in 2019. Leon seems to tire out the more he plays. He'd probably hit under .500 (yes OPS) if he played that much. I think Vaz can hit near .700 this year over 110-115 games. That's a possible 200 point gain, which is close to the difference between JD and a Pearce/Moreland platoon.

 

No, I do NOT want to go into the 2019 season counting on Swihart to catch more than 5-10 games. If there's a catcher injury, maybe we could deal with 25-35 starts, but no way do I want a Leon-Swihart tandem all year. I'm not willing to trust the learning curve period is short, or worse, they never adjust to him and our staff ERA jumps a half run or more due to trading Vaz.

 

Swihart seems to do okay with RP'ers, so keeping 3 catchers and PH'ing for one or two of them in any particular game would minimize the fright level by not seeing Swihart with any of our starters, except maybe ERod, who seems to do about the same with everyone.

 

Ideally, IMO, Leon starts when Sale & Price do. He only starts with someone else, if Vaz is hurt or needs a rest. Swihart is either a utility player or is traded. (Vaz 110-120 games & Leon 42-52 games started)

 

I'm going throw a question back at you: why give Swihart a chance? Are you willing to risk our great staff success on these numbers?

 

Chris Sale:

It's very telling that Swihart has never even caught 1 inning with Sale.

Career ERA with...

2.42 Leon (319 IP)

3.40 Vaz (53 IP)

n/a Swi (0)

 

David Price:

Pretty telling that Swihart has only caught Price 11 innings out of nearly 500 with the Sox.

2.83 Leon (194 IP)

4.32 Vaz (263)

5.73 Swi (11)

 

Porcello

4.14 Leon (483 IP)

4.15 Vaz (134)

4.59 Swihart (118)

 

Eovaldi (Tiny sample sizes)

0.55 Vaz (16 IP)

3.86 Leon (35)

n/a Swi (0)

 

ERod (The one pitcher I might trust with Swihart for 20+ starts)

4.00 Leon (99)

4.08 Swi (71)

4.24 Vaz (276)

 

Wright (Swi does well here)

3.35 Vaz (97)

4.06 Swi (71)

5.59 Leon (56)

 

The Pen:

 

Barnes

3.72 Vaz (97 IP)

3.80 Leon (83)

5.02 Swi (38)

 

Brasier (Tiny sample sizes)

1.29 Swi (7 IP)

1.40 Leon (19)

2.84 Vaz (6)

 

Hembree

1.82 Swi (25)

3.52 Leon (77)

4.20 Vaz (81)

 

Johnson

3.47 Leon (47)

3.72 Swi (46)

5.88 Vaz (34)

 

Velazquez

2.25 Leon (32)

3.21 Vaz (56)

3.79 Swi (19)

 

We can gamble that these numbers mean little or nothing, but I'd rather nor.

[moonslav59]

An anonymous scout reportedly still views the Yankees with a Top 10 farm system:

 

https://www.nj.com/yankees/2019/01/what-to-make-of-yankees-farm-system-which-has-only-2-in-baseball-prospectus-top-101.html

 

Whoop-dee-freakin'- doo!

[moonslav59]

I don't think the Red Sox have made the decision on which two catchers to keep. I would keep Vaz but am uncertain whether Leon should stay. He is solid on defense but a black hole on offense. Don't hear a lot of rumors flying around about the catching situation.

 

I think they know who they'd like to keep- Vaz & Leon, but the question is how important is it to upgrade the pen vs weakening the catching, plus budget concerns that might give trading Vaz more value.

 

Vaz catches Porcello, Eovaldi and ERod. Leon catches Sale & Price.

 

To me, this is as clear as day the best choice.

 

Now, if we could get a solid RP'er for Vaz and only Vaz, then maybe the choice gets cloudier.

[notin]

 

That brings us to Leon, assuming we trade Vaz. My 200 point possibility was based on the assumption that either Vaz or Leon would catch 110-115 games in 2019. Leon seems to tire out the more he plays. He'd probably hit under .500 (yes OPS) if he played that much. I think Vaz can hit near .700 this year over 110-115 games. That's a possible 200 point gain, which is close to the difference between JD and a Pearce/Moreland platoon.

 

 

 

That's a bit of a crazy assumption to say the least, At best, it's a weak strawman argument.

 

In the last 3 years, the OPS+ for Vazquez and Leon and Swihart

 

2016

Vazquez 55

Leon 122

Swihart 92 (74 PA)

 

2017

Vazquez 92

Leon 68

Swihart 75 (7 PA)

 

 

2018

Vazquez 46

Leon 37

Swihartv

 

Total

Vazquez 68

Leon 75

Swihart 65 (288 PA)

 

I'm really not sure where all of this faith in Vazquez as the vastly superior hitter to Leon comes from. Leon has had the worst season of any of the catchers, but also the best (albeit fueled by an insanely high BABIP). Of course, Vazquez best year was carried by a .290 BABIP, which is about 40 points better than his career average as well.

 

None of them are good hitters. Swihart has had the fewest opportunities and his best successes are getting further and further in the rear view mirror. But why does that deny him a chance when neither of the others has shown the ability to take command of both sides of the position in far, far greater chances?

 

The Sox have 3 backup catchers on the roster and you're trying to make an argument that one of them is untouchable. The Sox could deal all 3 and let Juan Centeneo play 140 games and no one would notice the difference...

Edited January 26, 2019 by notin

[moonslav59]

That's a bit of a crazy assumption to say the least, At best, it's a weak strawman argument.

 

In the last 3 years, the OPS+ for Vazquez and Leon and Swihart

 

2016

Vazquez 55

Leon 122

Swihart 92 (74 PA)

 

2017

Vazquez 92

Leon 68

Swihart 75 (7 PA)

 

 

2018

Vazquez 46

Leon 37

Swihartv

 

Total

Vazquez 68

Leon 75

Swihart 65 (288 PA)

 

I'm really not sure where all of this faith in Vazquez as the vastly superior hitter to Leon comes from. Leon has had the worst season of any of the catchers, but also the best (albeit fueled by an insanely high BABIP). Of course, Vazquez best year was carried by a .290 BABIP, which is about 40 points better than his career average as well.

 

None of them are good hitters. Swihart has had the fewest opportunities and his best successes are getting further and further in the rear view mirror. But why does that deny him a chance when neither of the others has shown the ability to take command of both sides of the position in far, far greater chances?

 

The Sox have 3 backup catchers on the roster and you're trying to make an argument that one of them is untouchable. The Sox could deal all 3 and let Juan Centeneo play 140 games and no one would notice the difference...

 

Do you really want Leon or Centano catching 120+ games?

As for Vaz on offense vs Leon, I guess we'll have to wait and see. I know I have way more faith in Vaz getting close to .700 than Leon. I never said Vaz is a good hitter. It's more about my opinion that Leon is horrible, not likely to improve at his age and seemingly getting worse the more he plays.

Not sure where any straw man was created.

[notin]

Do you really want Leon or Centano catching 120+ games?

As for Vaz on offense vs Leon, I guess we'll have to wait and see. I know I have way more faith in Vaz getting close to .700 than Leon. I never said Vaz is a good hitter. It's more about my opinion that Leon is horrible, not likely to improve at his age and seemingly getting worse the more he plays.i

Not sure where any straw man was created.

 

Vazquez was closer to .700 than Leon as recently as last year, but he still wasn’t close to it.

 

In the last 3 years, each has topped a .700 OPS once and failed to top even a .600 the other 2 seasons.

 

If Vazquez’ control and contract makes him more easily dealt for something good, he won’t be missed.

 

It’s also really hard to say his departure leaves some sort of gaping hole when we won 118 games last year with him posting a .535 OPS. One could easily argue we had that hole already.

 

I’m not even sure what the Sox could get for Vazquez; if it’s not worth it, DFAing Swihart might be the right way to go. But if Vazquez can get the Sox even a half decent bullpen arm, it needs to be considered...

[moonslav59]

Vazquez was closer to .700 than Leon as recently as last year, but he still wasn’t close to it.

 

In the last 3 years, each has topped a .700 OPS once and failed to top even a .600 the other 2 seasons.

 

If Vazquez’ control and contract makes him more easily dealt for something good, he won’t be missed.

 

It’s also really hard to say his departure leaves some sort of gaping hole when we won 118 games last year with him posting a .535 OPS. One could easily argue we had that hole already.

 

I’m not even sure what the Sox could get for Vazquez; if it’s not worth it, DFAing Swihart might be the right way to go. But if Vazquez can get the Sox even a half decent bullpen arm, it needs to be considered...

 

Vaz's offense is not even close to the main reason I'd keep him. It's his defense and pitcher handling skills and ability to catch more than 80-100 games that makes him the keeper. I don't trust Leon as a FT catcher, and I trust Swihart way less.

If we trade Vaz, Leon catches 120 and Swihart. 42? You okay with that?

[jacksonianmarch]

You cannot deal either Leon or Vaz going into this year. Neither is good enough to be a starting catcher. Both are good defensively. If Vaz ever gets his act together on the pitch calling and framing aspect, he would win the job, but he hasn't. Leon seems to have the best relationship with the pitchers.

[moonslav59]

You cannot deal either Leon or Vaz going into this year. Neither is good enough to be a starting catcher. Both are good defensively. If Vaz ever gets his act together on the pitch calling and framing aspect, he would win the job, but he hasn't. Leon seems to have the best relationship with the pitchers.

 

Leon is only significantly better than Vaz with Sale & Price.

 

Vaz is known for his defense, but for some reason he not only slumped offensively last year, but he started the season off looking worse than Swihart behind the plate. I may be just a homer, but I thought he looked much better as the year went on. (Leon looked worse.)

 

Maybe it was personal issues. Maybe it was just a slump.

 

I'm with you on the idea of keeping both. I know Swihart isn't bringing us a decent RP'er, but maybe Johnson & Swihart or Chavis & Swihart can.

[Kimmi]

Trade Vazquez for an arm.

 

Leon is essentially the same player and give Swihart a chance.

 

And you might even get a decent reliever for Vazquez, unlike Swihart...

 

I am not comfortable depending on Leon for that many innings and depending on Swihart for the remainder of the innings. And again, I say that as a Swihart fan.

 

Do not create a possible hole at catcher to fill what might not even be a hole in the pen.

[Kimmi]

I would. And my reasons are simple.

 

1) Leon is as good defensively as Vazquez and Sale and Price work better with Leon.

That's a reason to keep Leon not to trade Vaz.

 

2) While Vazquez should be a better hitter, the catcher bats ninth for this team anyway.

Vaz might hit 200 points higher than Leon next year- 9 slot or not, that's huge.

 

3) His AAV is actually the highest of the three.

Legit reason. We could trade Vaz for a cheap RP'er then use the money to get another one.

 

4) If the Sox are hellbent on keeping Swihart, at some point it needs to be justified with more playing time than a third string catcher typically gets.

They are not hellbent. He will be traded, soon.

 

5) I have a little faith in Swihart defensively and offensively. At least for now.

This is a reason to keep Vaz. "Little faith" is not good enough.

 

6) And most important, I think Vazquez can bring back a decent return...

Certainly better than the other catchers, but the hole opened will be worse than the hole filled in the pen, IMO.

 

I agree with your responses Moon.

 

I wouldn't mind keeping Swihart and having that 3rd catcher, but only if Cora would be willing to give him more playing time at other positions. If Cora is not willing to play him, then he should be traded.

[jacksonianmarch]

If you’re gonna live with an offensive hole at catcher, make sure it’s not a defensive one too.

[Bellhorn04]

Leon is only significantly better than Vaz with Sale & Price.

 

Vaz is known for his defense, but for some reason he not only slumped offensively last year, but he started the season off looking worse than Swihart behind the plate. I may be just a homer, but I thought he looked much better as the year went on. (Leon looked worse.)

 

Maybe it was personal issues. Maybe it was just a slump.

 

I'm with you on the idea of keeping both. I know Swihart isn't bringing us a decent RP'er, but maybe Johnson & Swihart or Chavis & Swihart can.

 

Cora selected Vazquez as his main man at a point in the postseason, so that certainly means something.

[moonslav59]

Cora selected Vazquez as his main man at a point in the postseason, so that certainly means something.

 

Yes, it does.Plus, I think part of the reason for using Vaz more in the playoffs was that Leon was burnt out. Leon should never be counted on as the main guy (80+ games).

[harmony]

Pretty unlikely Yankees are still a top ten system.

 

Sox are stlll 30, safe bet. No change there...

By one measure the Red Sox have the 28th-ranked farm system:

 

Top teams on 2019 Top 100 Prospects list

WWW.MLB.COM

---

MLB Pipeline's unveiling of our list of the Top 100 Prospects for 2019 marks the culmination of a two-week run during which we also looked at the Top 10 prospects at each position.:: Complete 2019 Top 100 Prospects coverage ::This year's Top 100 list is the first since 2015 to

 

... while the Yankees are ranked No. 24.

 

How can the last-place Miami Marlins be nearly shut out after trading away Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna a year ago?

 

E6 Derek Jeter.

Edited January 27, 2019 by harmony

[notin]

By one measure the Red Sox have the 28th-ranked farm system:

 

Top teams on 2019 Top 100 Prospects list

WWW.MLB.COM

---

MLB Pipeline's unveiling of our list of the Top 100 Prospects for 2019 marks the culmination of a two-week run during which we also looked at the Top 10 prospects at each position.:: Complete 2019 Top 100 Prospects coverage ::This year's Top 100 list is the first since 2015 to

 

... while the Yankees are ranked No. 24.

 

How can the last-place Miami Marlins be nearly shut out after trading away Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna a year ago?

 

E6 Derek Jeter.

 

 

Cut Jeter some slack. He’s trying to build the Marlins and the Yankees at once...