A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[moonslav59]

I joined the discussion when the honorable notin asked whether Bobby Dalbec and Darwinzon Hernandez would be enough to land "stud" reliever Will Smith:

 

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19013-A-Realistic-View-at-2019-Part-I/page147?highlight=stud

 

Feel free to follow the discussion from there, including when notin directed me to the FanGraphs FV.

 

Yes, I read that part and the part about how DHernandez is tied for our best FV and Dalbec is tied with others for our 4th best FV.

 

I do not think we can match up with other teams for big ticket trade targets, but it's hard to know how much other teams want for a player and how much they value our prospects (more or less than fangraphs?).

 

[cp176]

Me, too, but Dalbec's insanely high K rate might make him a lesser choice.

 

His strikeout rate is crazy high but I think that he needs more time. He is big and athletic and filled with raw power. He is very interesting.

[jacksonianmarch]

But the fact you did it without adding Harper or Machado? And you might still be signing Ottavino or another reliever.

 

We’re going to jettison $9 mil from Gray, which will put us under the threshold again. I doubt very much that we get Harper or Machado. Looking at the money we have tied up in this squad, the overwhelming majority is up within 2 seasons. Going past the threshold this year is really no big deal. I sincerely doubt we go over the last threshold ever. These are the deals and the money up within 2 years

 

CC 1 yr $8 mil

Gardner 1 yr $9 mil

Hicks 1 yr $6 mil

Gregorius 1 yr $12 mil

Lemahieu 2 yrs $12 mil AAV

Ellsbury 2 yrs $21 mil AAV

Tanaka 2 yrs $22 mil AAV

Paxton arb eligible $9 mil this year

Britton $13 mil AAV I’d decline swellopt

Happ 2 yrs $17 mil AAV if option doesn’t vest

Betances 1 yrs deal arb case

Chapman $18 mil AAV if he opts our this offseason

 

We have some flexibility for sure

[jacksonianmarch]

I never said I expect it, but I do think there's a good chance he has a better year at some point in the next few years.

 

(Plus, he wasn't even healthy all year, so if he just gives near what he did in 2018, but over a full year, we could see more impact in 2019.

 

That’s ridiculous. Betts season was one of the best seasons by anybody post roid era. Thinking there’s a good chance he beats that is drinking Kool Aid with rose colored glasses riding a unicorn level s***

[harmony]

We’re going to jettison $9 mil from Gray, which will put us under the threshold again. I doubt very much that we get Harper or Machado. Looking at the money we have tied up in this squad, the overwhelming majority is up within 2 seasons. Going past the threshold this year is really no big deal. I sincerely doubt we go over the last threshold ever. These are the deals and the money up within 2 years

To be precise, with a trade of Sonny Gray the Yankees could jettison up to $7.5 million, the 2019 salary the parties agreed upon to avoid arbitration.

[notin]

To be precise, with a trade of Sonny Gray the Yankees could jettison up to $7.5 million, the 2019 salary the parties agreed upon to avoid arbitration.

 

 

Or less if the player they trade for makes any money.

 

Unless they deal him to the Marlins, as Jeter still (not so) secretly works for the Yankees...

[harmony]

Or less if the player they trade for makes any money.

Unless they deal him to the Marlins, as Jeter still (not so) secretly works for the Yankees...

Hence the "up to $7.5 million" in my post.

[jacksonianmarch]

Sorry, Gray was expected to get $9 mil. I didn’t see he settled for less

[harmony]

Sorry, Gray was expected to get $9 mil. I didn’t see he settled for less

James Paxton reportedly settled for $8.575 million as the Yankees apparently avoided arbitration with everyone but Luis Severino:

 

https://www.sny.tv/yankees/news/yankees-arbitration-tracker-austin-romine-greg-bird-settle-on-contracts/302606774

[moonslav59]

That’s ridiculous. Betts season was one of the best seasons by anybody post roid era. Thinking there’s a good chance he beats that is drinking Kool Aid with rose colored glasses riding a unicorn level s***

 

I totally disagree.

 

I'm not saying it's a sure bet that Mookie tops the 30th best WAR ever put together since 1925, but he's still under prime age and has clear areas where improvement can be made- like swinging at more good pitches, instead of taking so many.

 

History shows us that many of the greatest seasons of all time were later topped by the same player, or at least they came very close to topping it. I won't use Bonds as an example, but here are a few others I found:

 

While Ted Williams was a freak of nature, and he had so many great seasons, he nearly topped his alltime best (1.287 in 1941) 16 years later! In 1957, he hit 1.257, when he was way past prime.

 

Babe Ruth went off the charts in 1926 with a 1.253 OPS- an OPS so high, it had to be a once in a lifetime thing, right? Well, the very next year, he topped it.

 

Mark McGwire totally smashed his best OPS in 1996 by hitting 1.198.Two years later, he topped it.

 

Mantle topped 1956 in 1957.

 

Jimmie Foxx nearly topped 1938 in 1939.

 

Hornsby topped 1928 in 1929.

 

Musial topped 1946 in 1948.

 

Sure, when you look at the list of the best OPS seasons of all time, there are plenty of players only seen once in the top 50, 100 or 200. One and done, yes, but even the Hack Wilsons, Frank Rhomases and Jeff Bagwells of the world had several fantastic seasons not far removed from their best.

 

It's not absurd to think there's a "good chance" Betts can repeat or do better at least one more time.

 

 

 

 

[jacksonianmarch]

There’s a reason why you’re going back to dead players. It doesn’t happen nowadays and it won’t happen again

[moonslav59]

There’s a reason why you’re going back to dead players. It doesn’t happen nowadays and it won’t happen again

 

There's oodles of examples of recent players having their career best year and then doing better afterwards.

 

In fact age progression charts project better and better years until prime is reached. Even then, some players top their best seasons post prime.

 

It's not a freak happening.

 

Anyway, does this mean Stanton, Judge, Sanchez and others can only get worse? After all, every player in MLB today already has a career best year under their belt.

 

Look, I realize, Betts' OPS in 2018 was about 180 points higher than his previous best, and that doesn't happen often. Certainly, there is also a "good chance" he never repeats or maybe even never comes close, but Mookie just turned 26. He's in the heart of prime. He's got an insane advantage over other hitters in his era with his off-the-charts "twitch" rate. He's in a line-up where you have to pitch to him, and he has an area where he can greatly improve upon without doing anything more than just swinging at more good pitches than he did last year.

 

He is a truly amazing player to be able to put up numbers like 2018 while having such a poor rate at swinging at the best pitches.

[jacksonianmarch]

I am saying Betts isn’t likely to get as lucky again. His career BABIP is .315. He was 53 points above that. Now, some players always have high BABIP’s (like Judge) mostly due to being absolute monsters physically. That’s not Betts. He’s not gonna have a near .370 BABIP again.

[moonslav59]

There’s a reason why you’re going back to dead players. It doesn’t happen nowadays and it won’t happen again

 

Want some live ones?

 

I'll take the most recent 20 seasons' best OPS and throw out Bonds.

 

I should throw out Sosa and McGwire, too as both of them used PEDs and saw a massive spike in their OPS and then equaled or topped that spike later in their careers.

 

Here's the rest:

 

#6 Larry Walker: He has a three seasons over .900 and a .912 OPS in 1996 before exploding with a 1.172 OPS in 1997 (6th best in 20 years). He ends up going over 1.013 5 more times, including coming very close to his 1997 high twice: 1.168 in 1999 and 1.111 in 2001.

 

#7 Todd Heltom: His 2000 season was about 180 points better than his previous high (just like Mookie), and he came close the following year with a 1.116 OPS. He then had 3 more consecutive seasons over 1.006.

 

#8 Manny Ramirez: He jumped up to a 1.105 OPS in an insane 1999 season (44 HRs and 131 RBI while batting .333)! Can't top that, right? Well, the very next year, he has his 1.154 OPS season the year before signing with the Sox. He ends up having 6 more seasons over 1.009, including one pretty close to his 2000 season in 2002, when he hit 1.097, which even as his second best of his career was still better than Mookies' 2018 season.

 

#9 Jason Giambi, someone you know. A good example for my case. He jumps 100 points in 1999 with the A's to a .975 OPS. In 2000, he has a "career best year" of 1.123- a similar jump as Mookie of about 150 points. Except, it wasn't his career best. He did better the next year and by 124 POINTS! He hit 1.137 in 2001 the year before joining the Yanks and beginning his slow decline, despite a 1.034 first year with them.

 

#10 Carlos Delgado: I agree he was sort of a one and done player. His 2000 season's 1.134 was a bout 180 points higher than his previous season, but he did have one more season at 1.019.

 

#13 Jim Thome: in 1996, Thome jumped his OPS by about 70 points to 1.062. Pretty damn good. He followed it with a 1.001 OPS and 4 years later a 1.040 OPS. That 1996 season had to be his career best, right? After all, he was now past prime. WRONG! He went on to hit 1.222 in 2002 and even had a couple more seasons over 1.000 much later on.

 

#15 Luis Gonzalez: The true one and done. .952 in 1999, 1.117 in 2001 and never above .934 afterwards.

 

#17 Albert Pujols: He really had no spikes. He started off his career with amazing numbers right out of the gait. In 2003, he hit 1.106, which was almost 100 points better than his next highest. He then hit between .997 and 1.072 the next 4 years before topping his career best with a new one at 1.114 in 2008. He came close the next year at 1.101 (3rd best of career), then 1.011, .906 and then fell off a cliff with the Angels.

 

Those are all the top 20 OPS seasons in the last 20 years not named Bonds, McGwire or Sosa. These guys are still alive.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

I am saying Betts isn’t likely to get as lucky again. His career BABIP is .315. He was 53 points above that. Now, some players always have high BABIP’s (like Judge) mostly due to being absolute monsters physically. That’s not Betts. He’s not gonna have a near .370 BABIP again.

 

I'll take Mookie's twitch skills over Judge's Shrek physicality 7 days a week.

 

Look, I never said I'd bet on him repeating. I only said there's a good chance he comes close or does better at least one more year.

 

There's also a good chance he doesn't.

 

Same with Judge.

[jacksonianmarch]

Want some live ones?

 

I'll take the most recent 20 seasons' best OPS and throw out Bonds.

 

I should throw out Sosa and McGwire, too as both of them used PEDs and saw a massive spike in their OPS and then equaled or topped that spike later in their careers.

 

Here's the rest:

 

#6 Larry Walker: He has a three seasons over .900 and a .912 OPS in 1996 before exploding with a 1.172 OPS in 1997 (6th best in 20 years). He ends up going over 1.013 5 more times, including coming very close to his 1997 high twice: 1.168 in 1999 and 1.111 in 2001.

 

#7 Todd Heltom: His 2000 season was about 180 points better than his previous high (just like Mookie), and he came close the following year with a 1.116 OPS. He then had 3 more consecutive seasons over 1.006.

 

#8 Manny Ramirez: He jumped up to a 1.105 OPS in an insane 1999 season (44 HRs and 131 RBI while batting .333)! Can't top that, right? Well, the very next year, he has his 1.154 OPS season the year before signing with the Sox. He ends up having 6 more seasons over 1.009, including one pretty close to his 2000 season in 2002, when he hit 1.097, which even as his second best of his career was still better than Mookies' 2018 season.

 

#9 Jason Giambi, someone you know. A good example for my case. He jumps 100 points in 1999 with the A's to a .975 OPS. In 2000, he has a "career best year" of 1.123- a similar jump as Mookie of about 150 points. Except, it wasn't his career best. He did better the next year and by 124 POINTS! He hit 1.137 in 2001 the year before joining the Yanks and beginning his slow decline, despite a 1.034 first year with them.

 

#10 Carlos Delgado: I agree he was sort of a one and done player. His 2000 season's 1.134 was a bout 180 points higher than his previous season, but he did have one more season at 1.019.

 

#13 Jim Thome: in 1996, Thome jumped his OPS by about 70 points to 1.062. Pretty damn good. He followed it with a 1.001 OPS and 4 years later a 1.040 OPS. That 1996 season had to be his career best, right? After all, he was now past prime. WRONG! He went on to hit 1.222 in 2002 and even had a couple more seasons over 1.000 much later on.

 

#15 Luis Gonzalez: The true one and done. .952 in 1999, 1.117 in 2001 and never above .934 afterwards.

 

#17 Albert Pujols: He really had no spikes. He started off his career with amazing numbers right out of the gait. In 2003, he hit 1.106, which was almost 100 points better than his next highest. He then hit between .997 and 1.072 the next 4 years before topping his career best with a new one at 1.114 in 2008. He came close the next year at 1.101 (3rd best of career), then 1.011, .906 and then fell off a cliff with the Angels.

 

Those are all the top 20 OPS seasons in the last 20 years not named Bonds, McGwire or Sosa. These guys are still alive.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So very rare outside of steroids and Coors field

[jacksonianmarch]

Yeah, you’re in the minority on that. Betts size is his downfall. Most small great players have short windows

[moonslav59]

So very rare outside of steroids and Coors field

 

Very rare? I listed all the non steroid players in the top 20 over the last 20 years and only Luis Gonzalez and Carlos Delgado were "one and dones."

 

The other 6 all came very close or beat a great season with an even better one.

 

The Coors Field claim is lame. Both Helton and Walker did not have their first season outside of Coors then have a later, better one there. They had both seasons there.

 

If you want to throw them out, too, the score is still 4-2 in favor of players repeating great years vs one and dones. That's certainly not "kool-aid" wishful thinking, when at least this evidence actually supports the idea that Betts might repeat.

[jacksonianmarch]

Luis Gonzalez, Jason Giambi, Manny Ramirez...

 

No steroids?

[moonslav59]

Luis Gonzalez, Jason Giambi, Manny Ramirez...

 

No steroids?

 

Okay, throw those three out and it's 2 that repeated and 1 that did not. Still, good odds.

 

I'm still not seeing why it's so "drink the kool aid" rare.

[jacksonianmarch]

Take a look at the players you’re listing. They’re all massive men known for power. Betts has power, but his game isn’t to hit 50 bombs. It’s an exceedingly rare event and doesn’t happen in the post roid era

[moonslav59]

Take a look at the players you’re listing. They’re all massive men known for power. Betts has power, but his game isn’t to hit 50 bombs. It’s an exceedingly rare event and doesn’t happen in the post roid era

 

...but Betts achieved these numbers without hitting 33 HRs. One could argue, he can hit 40-45 HRs this year and see his BA dip.

 

BTW, not all those guys were super big beefy hitters.

[notin]

I am saying Betts isn’t likely to get as lucky again. His career BABIP is .315. He was 53 points above that. Now, some players always have high BABIP’s (like Judge) mostly due to being absolute monsters physically. That’s not Betts. He’s not gonna have a near .370 BABIP again.

 

 

Betts’ rise in BABIP wasn’t just due to luck and regression is imminent; Betts hit substantially more line drives and had a much higher percentage of hard hit balls than he did in 2017. Typically players who outperform their expected BABIP are not “absolute monsters physically” but rather fast runners with quick first steps who maximize getting hits out of ground balls. No player in MLB consistently outperforms his expected BABIP better than Austin Jackson, who is definitely not an “absolute monster physically”. ( He’s not even all that ugly.)

 

My suspicion is Judge might be more prone to regressing on BABIP than Betts. His BABIP his last few seasons in the minors was hardly anything dazzling, and that he “always” has high BABIP might stem more from the fact that it’s only been two seasons. He’s not Shin Soo Choo yet...&

[dgalehouse]

BABIP certainly has some value in predicting future results. However , I think it can often be deceiving. Don't put too much stock in it , one way or another, without actually seeing many of the at bats. One thing for sure: You have no chance of getting a hit if you don't put the ball in play.

[dgalehouse]

I totally disagree.

 

I'm not saying it's a sure bet that Mookie tops the 30th best WAR ever put together since 1925, but he's still under prime age and has clear areas where improvement can be made- like swinging at more good pitches, instead of taking so many.

 

History shows us that many of the greatest seasons of all time were later topped by the same player, or at least they came very close to topping it. I won't use Bonds as an example, but here are a few others I found:

 

While Ted Williams was a freak of nature, and he had so many great seasons, he nearly topped his alltime best (1.287 in 1941) 16 years later! In 1957, he hit 1.257, when he was way past prime.

 

Babe Ruth went off the charts in 1926 with a 1.253 OPS- an OPS so high, it had to be a once in a lifetime thing, right? Well, the very next year, he topped it.

 

Mark McGwire totally smashed his best OPS in 1996 by hitting 1.198.Two years later, he topped it.

 

Mantle topped 1956 in 1957.

 

Jimmie Foxx nearly topped 1938 in 1939.

 

Hornsby topped 1928 in 1929.

 

Musial topped 1946 in 1948.

 

Sure, when you look at the list of the best OPS seasons of all time, there are plenty of players only seen once in the top 50, 100 or 200. One and done, yes, but even the Hack Wilsons, Frank Rhomases and Jeff Bagwells of the world had several fantastic seasons not far removed from their best.

 

It's not absurd to think there's a "good chance" Betts can repeat or do better at least one more time.

 

 

 

 

 

It would not especially surprise me if Mookie has not yet achieved his peak. The best may well be yet to come. His combination of athletic ability, hand / eye coordination and natural skills are not often seen. On top of that ; his attitude , demeanor and desire to improve makes him unique. No telling what his limits are.

[moonslav59]

It would not especially surprise me if Mookie has not yet achieved his peak. The best may well be yet to come. His combination of athletic ability, hand / eye coordination and natural skills are not often seen. On top of that ; his attitude , demeanor and desire to improve makes him unique. No telling what his limits are.

 

Well said, and although he may not be a monster, he's an incredible athlete with the gift of amazing reflexes and instincts.

 

His all out play on defense may increase his injury chances, but it's a part of his character I do not want him to change.

 

Besides, when I say "good chance," I don't think that necessarily means better than a 50% chance. Plus, I hedged my statement to "close to" doing better than 2018 in some season in the future.

 

I don't see how that reached a "drinking Kool-Aid" level of optimism.

[Larry Cook]

It would not especially surprise me if Mookie has not yet achieved his peak. The best may well be yet to come. His combination of athletic ability, hand / eye coordination and natural skills are not often seen. On top of that ; his attitude , demeanor and desire to improve makes him unique. No telling what his limits are.

 

Mookie broke in and had a great year when Ortiz was in the lineup,

 

Next year Ortiz is retired. Betts is left unprotected and has a miserable year.

 

Next season enter Martinez and Betts has a great year.

 

Martinez to return in 2019, so Mookie should continue to be great.

[moonslav59]

Mookie broke in and had a great year when Ortiz was in the lineup,

 

Next year Ortiz is retired. Betts is left unprotected and has a miserable year.

 

Next season enter Martinez and Betts has a great year.

 

Martinez to return in 2019, so Mookie should continue to be great.

 

What explains the 180 point gain on the "with Papi" year?

[notin]

What explains the 180 point gain on the "with Papi" year?

 

The rise of Betts is not really so much just protection in the lineup. His hard hit rate has gone up every year, including 2017...

[dannycater]

This is me post-2004, 2007, 2013, 2018 World Series champion on chat: We are the champions...again...and again..and again....and one more time...and how do we improve from winning a combined 119 games...ummm, we are the champions, everyone else can bow down...we are the champions, Eavoldi and Pearce back, Betts happy, and Cora the manager...ummm, we are the champions....