A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[moonslav59]

Easy man, you're going to tie the poor guy in knots.

 

Here is Greg Bird's history since 2014:

2014

A+ 325 PAs

AA 212

AZfall 115

 

2015

AA 212

AAA 115

MLB 178

 

2016

DL- all season

AZfall 78

 

2017

AAA 59

MLB 170

DL returned back to DL

A+ 22

 

2018

DL to start the season

AAA 18

AA 20

A+ 11

MLB 311

DL

[harmony]

The Sox and Yankees 1b situations both have potential to be the least productive in the American League outside of Baltimore. Debate does need to die...

Don't shortchange the Seattle Mariners:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

[moonslav59]

The Sox and Yankees 1b situations both have potential to be the least productive in the American League outside of Baltimore. Debate does need to die...

 

Agreed, and I realize maybe I got too high on Pearce based on a tiny sample size last year and some surges here and there during his career, but I think the platoon may surprise many.

[a700hitter]

Bird and Voit are 2 sacks of s***. Even my Yankee fan friends and relatives don't like that combination. That's good enough for me. Case closed.

[notin]

Don't shortchange the Seattle Mariners:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

 

I couldn’t guarantee Encarnacion didn’t play there...

[Kimmi]

I think we're basically seeing a version of the Sox-JD staredown from last year here. I am firmly of the belief that if there were a 5 year deal out there for Kimbrel he would have signed it by now.

 

I agree.

 

Thank goodness Dombrowski does not seem willing to give Kimbrel a 4 year deal.

[Kimmi]

The Sox and Yankees 1b situations both have potential to be the least productive in the American League outside of Baltimore. Debate does need to die...

 

Boston Red Sox - World Series Champions

 

End of debate.

[Kimmi]

Bird and Voit are 2 sacks of s***. Even my Yankee fan friends and relatives don't like that combination. That's good enough for me. Case closed.

 

Voit, like Boone, is a doofus.

 

Advantage Red Sox.

[moonslav59]

I agree.

 

Thank goodness Dombrowski does not seem willing to give Kimbrel a 4 year deal.

 

Even 3 is too much, but it's better than 4 or 5.

 

I'm still doubtful we get him unless his price falls on a 3 o4 year deal or he agrees to a 1 or 2 year deal at top dollar.

[notin]

Even 3 is too much, but it's better than 4 or 5.

 

I'm still doubtful we get him unless his price falls on a 3 oyear deal or he agrees to a 1 or 2 year deal at top dollar.

 

Kimbrel for 2/$36mill and then sign Allen for 1/$8....

[moonslav59]

Kimbrel for 2/$36mill and then sign Allen for 1/$8....

 

Much better, but we'd still be over the 2019 max tax line by over $20M and make resetting after 2019 much more problematic, but it works for me.

 

I wonder how Henry would view it.

[moonslav59]

Y Grandal

signs for 1 year deal!

 

$18.25M/1 with Brewers.

 

Big get by MIL.

 

[moonslav59]

Dombrowski: Red Sox “Have Not Anticipated Large Expenditure For A Closer”

By Steve Adams | January 9, 2019 at 8:08am CDT

 

The Red Sox have already lost Joe Kelly to the Dodgers via free agency and stand to lose Craig Kimbrel in free agency as well if they don’t make a push to re-sign him in the coming weeks. However, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski downplayed the possibility of retaining Kimbrel in an interview with Bob Nightengale of USA Today. “Craig did a great job for us,” said Dombrowski. “He’s a Hall of Fame reliever, but we have not anticipated having a large expenditure for a closer.”

 

Those words have to be cringe-worthy for Kimbrel and his representatives, as the seven-time All-Star reportedly entered free agency hoping to secure a six-year pact. As of late December, Kimbrel’s camp had dropped the price tag a bit but was still seeking a deal along the lines of the five-year pacts scored by Aroldis Chapman ($86MM) and Kenley Jansen ($80MM) two offseasons ago. As I noted at the time of that report, though, Kimbrel is only three months younger than Chapman and eight months younger than Jansen — meaning he’s over a year older now than were the other two hurlers at the time they signed.

 

Looking beyond the impact of Dombrowski’s comments on Kimbrel, however, it’s perhaps alarming for Sox fans to hear the team’s top decision-maker suggest that there may not be a bullpen splash of note. Ryan Brasier, Matt Barnes and Heath Hembree are currently in line for work at the back of the Boston ’pen, and that trio can’t exactly fill fans or the team with confidence.

 

While Brasier looked sensational as an out-of-the-blue reclamation project in 2018 and Barnes has emerged as a quality setup piece over the past two seasons, the overall bullpen is lacking in experience. Brandon Workman has been solid over the past two seasons but in a smallish sample of 81 innings. Tyler Thornburg was tendered a contract after a pair of injury-ruined campaigns, while lefty Brian Johnson has been steady but unspectacular.

 

It should be noted, of course, that Dombrowski’s comments certainly don’t indicate that the Sox won’t be making bullpen additions of any kind. But a splash for Kimbrel seems unlikely in the wake of such a public declaration, and second-tier names like Adam Ottavino could also prove steep depending on Dombrowski’s definition of “large expenditure.” It’s worth noting that over at Roster Resource, Jason Martinez projects Boston’s current luxury tax payroll to be at a hefty $239.7MM. Even accounting for a bit of wiggle room, that doesn’t leave Boston with much room if the team hopes to remain south of the top luxury tax penalization bracket.

 

Of course, there’s also no real reason that the Red Sox should need to remain below that threshold unless ownership makes the curious decision to mandate doing so. The Sox are entering their final season of control over Chris Sale and Xander Bogaerts, and they could see J.D. Martinez opt out of his contract next winter as well. There’s every reason for Boston to put the pedal to the proverbial metal in this instance, even if doing so means taking a hit in the draft for a second consecutive season. (The collective bargaining agreement stipulates that exceeding the luxury threshold by more than $40MM will drop a team’s top pick in the following year’s draft by 10 spots in addition to a 45 percent luxury tax on any dollars over $246MM.)

 

Perhaps the Sox will find an intriguing option on the trade market or make a shrewd investment or two in the lower tiers of the free-agent market for relievers once the market dries up a bit, but it’s nevertheless puzzling that a team that is so heavily invested in every other area of the roster isn’t taking a more aggressive approach when striving to replace its two most prominent relievers. Of course, it’s also possible that Dombrowski’s comments not only reflect some real hesitation, but also represent an effort to shore up his leverage in negotiations with potential signees.

[moonslav59]

Would TB agree to this?

 

Vazquez, Chavis & Shawaryn or Houck

 

for

 

Jose Alvarado

 

We might then have enough budget space to sign Allen and keep some wiggle room on the max line.

 

[Larry Cook]

Y Grandal

signs for 1 year deal!

 

$18.25M/1 with Brewers.

 

Big get by MIL.

 

 

Huge signing for them!

 

If they pull off the bumgartner trade, they would be positioned for a deep playoff run!

[moonslav59]

Huge signing for them!

 

If they pull off the bumgartner trade, they would be positioned for a deep playoff run!

 

Bum is a risky get, as he is showing some decline. Wouldn't signing Keuchel be less risky?

[harmony]

Would TB agree to this?

 

Vazquez, Chavis & Shawaryn or Houck

 

for

 

Jose Alvarado

 

We might then have enough budget space to sign Allen and keep some wiggle room on the max line.

 

The Rays might be reluctant to trade five years of lefthander Jose Alvarado and take on salary in the form of a three-year commitment to a backup catcher.

Edited January 10, 2019 by harmony

[harmony]

Bum is a risky get, as he is showing some decline. Wouldn't signing Keuchel be less risky?

Madison Bumgarner is a 29-year-old with a one-year commitment at a $12 million salary while Dallas Keuchel is a 31-year-old with a projected four-year, $82 million contract.

 

Risks abound.

[SoxnCycles]

Voit, like Boone, is a doofus.

 

Advantage Red Sox.

 

Viot is one of those players that are almost instantly dislikable.

[jacksonianmarch]

He also hits the piss out of the ball and is one of the rare RHH who has almost seamlessly figured out how to abuse the RF wall in Yankee Stadium.

[mvp 78]

When a 39 game sample proves to you that a guy has figured everything out...

[kenmeister]

Y Grandal

signs for 1 year deal!

 

$18.25M/1 with Brewers.

 

Big get by MIL.

 

 

One of the best baseball names I've ever seen (Yasmani Grandal). Right up there with Asdrubal Cabrera and Yhency Brazoban. Someday I should write up the all-awesome name team.

 

(I use these names for my D&D characters btw; a little cross-hobby fun.)

[notin]

One of the best baseball names I've ever seen (Yasmani Grandal). Right up there with Asdrubal Cabrera and Yhency Brazoban. Someday I should write up the all-awesome name team.

 

(I use these names for my D&D characters btw; a little cross-hobby fun.)

 

There is a “Fun with Baseball Names” thread on the General Baseball forum.

 

And no baseball name ever is funnier than Tim Spooneybarger...

[Bellhorn04]

He also hits the piss out of the ball and is one of the rare RHH who has almost seamlessly figured out how to abuse the RF wall in Yankee Stadium.

 

When last seen, Steve Pearce was hitting the piss out of quite a few baseballs himself...

[notin]

He also hits the piss out of the ball and is one of the rare RHH who has almost seamlessly figured out how to abuse the RF wall in Yankee Stadium.

 

 

He figured out to not catch up to a fastball?

[harmony]

FanGraphs posts its Red Sox prospect list:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-26-prospects-boston-red-sox/

[OH FOY]

Ockimey not on list for 1st baseman. His stock has fallen, because of his Defense.

[mvp 78]

Ockimey not on list for 1st baseman. His stock has fallen, because of his Defense.

 

He shouldn't be. His stock didn't fall due to defense, his stock fell because his bat isn't improving and his platoon bat and poor athleticism doesn't project well at this point.

[OH FOY]

Bad reviews on his Defense from Scouts. Project him as DH.

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/8881/josh-ockimey

This is just one review, seem many, especially from AFL reviews.

Edited January 10, 2019 by OH FOY!

[mvp 78]

Ockimey not on list for 1st baseman. His stock has fallen, because of his Defense.

 

I like that they have Groome lower than other places. This order seems much more in line with how I feel than what is posted at Sox Prospects. The only thing I might change is maybe push Dalbec up a slot or two.