A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[notin]

...like LAD.

 

Or Philadelphia...

[Kimmi]

It won't bother me at all, if the Yanks get Machado. He'll help in the short term but will limit them down the road.

 

We're still better than them with MM and us without CK.

 

Completely agree with this.

[Emp9]

Anyone a tiny bit surprised Harper and f***face Machado still haven't signed yet?

[dgalehouse]

Anyone a tiny bit surprised Harper and f***face Machado still haven't signed yet?

 

No . Things don't always happen as quickly as we might think. These are major business transactions.

[Emp9]

These are major business transactions.

 

Get out o' town... REALLY? Never knew that. LOL

[Emp9]

No . Things don't always happen as quickly as we might think. These are major business transactions.

 

Any chance does FA linger like last year?

[dgalehouse]

Any chance does FA linger like last year?

 

Looks like it. It worked out okay for us last year.

[moonslav59]

Looks like it. It worked out okay for us last year.

 

DD might wait out the closer market and swoop in near the end to get one for a 1 year deal or a great bargain.

[dgalehouse]

DD might wait out the closer market and swoop in near the end to get one for a 1 year deal or a great bargain.

 

Yep . We don't know what is going on behind the scenes. Sometimes it is hard to be patient.

[moonslav59]

Yep . We don't know what is going on behind the scenes. Sometimes it is hard to be patient.

 

It's not simple, for sure, but how many teams are currently looking to spend big on a closer or solid set up guy that may become a closer? How many pitchers fit that bill?

 

I think there are more really good relief pitchers than big spending teams.

 

Edited January 3, 2019 by moonslav59

[Station 13]

I don't see how Dombrowski will open 2019 without a closer. A contender with uncertainty at closer is devastating. This team is still incomplete. Closer/Set up are wide open. Ultimately I expect Kimbrel to drop enough for us to swoop in and sign the leprechaun. John Henry is very receptive of spending to improve his team (even signing an unknown like Castillo) and he has never spoken about a mandated budget for DD to stay within. Can this off season finally start?

[moonslav59]

I don't see how Dombrowski will open 2019 without a closer. A contender with uncertainty at closer is devastating. This team is still incomplete. Closer/Set up are wide open. Ultimately I expect Kimbrel to drop enough for us to swoop in and sign the leprechaun. John Henry is very receptive of spending to improve his team (even signing an unknown like Castillo) and he has never spoken about a mandated budget for DD to stay within. Can this off season finally start?

 

Going with Brasier or Barnes would not be "devastating," when you look how stacked the rest of the team is. Besides, we will add another RP'er by opening day. It doesn't have to a be a great one.

[notin]

DD might wait out the closer market and swoop in near the end to get one for a 1 year deal or a great bargain.

 

 

There’s still about a dozen or so experienced closers on the market, and a few more who are free agents next season who might be available via trade. If the budget concerns are real, I don’t expect Kimbrel, Britton or Ottavino. If there is no budget limit for DD, I lean towards him signing Robertson (whom we know will go as low as 3 years).

 

Otherwise, I think the Sox trade for a reliever. Worst case is Barnes closes...

[jacksonianmarch]

Going with Brasier or Barnes would not be "devastating," when you look how stacked the rest of the team is. Besides, we will add another RP'er by opening day. It doesn't have to a be a great one.

 

Your lips to DD’s ears. I’d love it if you only added a non-great reliever

[Bellhorn04]

Anyone a tiny bit surprised Harper and f***face Machado still haven't signed yet?

 

Things have changed with the way offseasons play out.

 

One thing I remember clearly about the Mark Teixeira (******* LOL) auction is him saying he wanted to have it done by Christmas...

[Bellhorn04]

Your lips to DD’s ears. I’d love it if you only added a non-great reliever

 

Fortunately none of us is running the team.

[jacksonianmarch]

Fortunately none of us is running the team.

 

I know people love Barnes right now because his K rate was amazing last year, but he has never proven to be able to close. Also, he was vital in the setup role last year before his hip got hurt. If he moves to the closers role, then you create a hole where he was. Also, for everyone clamoring about how the Yanks Voit is a SSS wonder (he may very well be) yet have serious love for Brasier is a hypocrite. Brasier is a 31 yr old journeyman reliever who had a great ERA which is not supported by advanced metrics. He doesn't strike out a lot of guys based on the stuff he has. He had never posted a sub 2.8 walk rate at any level of his career (aside from a 5 game SS in Oakland) and he was sub 2 in Boston. His BABIP last year was .198. His xFIP was 3.78, over 2 full runs above his ERA. So while his metrics do point to a good reliever, they absolutely do not point to a lock down reliever like he was based on ERA last season. Plus, he had been out of the majors for 5 years when he resurfaced. It is far easier the second time around when you have a good SR on a guy. My guess is DD is counting on Brasier to be in the relief mix, but I bet he isn't counting on him for big innings, especially in a metrics based FO like Boston

[moonslav59]

Your lips to DD’s ears. I’d love it if you only added a non-great reliever

 

We'll have the mid season to make adjustments, if needed.

[jacksonianmarch]

We'll have the mid season to make adjustments, if needed.

 

Maybe you do. But mid-season deals for closers are hardly sure things. Eric Gagne says hi

[moonslav59]

Maybe you do. But mid-season deals for closers are hardly sure things. Eric Gagne says hi

 

Keep on hoping...

 

I love our chances this year with or without a major pen upgrade.

[notin]

Maybe you do. But mid-season deals for closers are hardly sure things. Eric Gagne says hi

 

Yes that one trade 12 years ago is the definitive one.

 

Did David Robertson work out or not for the Yankees as a much more recent mid-season closer acquisition?

 

(I know Robertson didn’t close for New York, but Gagne didn’t close for Boston, either. Jon Papelbon was the Sox closer that season.)

[mvp 78]

Maybe you do. But mid-season deals for closers are hardly sure things. Eric Gagne says hi

 

His FIP with the Sox was lower than his career average. His k/9 with the Sox was higher than his career average. His BABIP was 120+ points higher than any other time in his career.

 

SSS

[mvp 78]

This is what 2019 has turned into: me stanning for Eric Gagne. Should be a fun year.

[notin]

This is what 2019 has turned into: me stanning for Eric Gagne. Should be a fun year.

 

And he (finally) earned his paycheck with the Sox this year with one phone call to Alex Cora.

 

It is possible that because of that rough stretch in Boston, Gagne learned a little something about tipping pitches...

[Bellhorn04]

We'll have the mid season to make adjustments, if needed.

 

That is true. OTOH you don't want to lose the division by a game or two because the pen wasn't upgraded early enough.

[dgalehouse]

Normally, I am the optimist . Calm and confident while some others are sweating bullets , nervous , worried , cursing and fearing the worst. One eye on the Yankees and the other eye twitching. However, what I see here is a bit of false bravado. Should the Yanks acquire Machado , Paxton and a quality bullpen piece while the Sox lose Kimbrel and Kelly without getting any significant replacement for the bullpen, it is definitely a cause for concern. We should not pretend otherwise. I do realize it is still early , but I wouldn't want to wait until mid season to address it.

[notin]

Normally, I am the optimist . Calm and confident while some others are sweating bullets , nervous , worried , cursing and fearing the worst. One eye on the Yankees and the other eye twitching. However, what I see here is a bit of false bravado. Should the Yanks acquire Machado , Paxton and a quality bullpen piece while the Sox lose Kimbrel and Kelly without getting any significant replacement for the bullpen, it is definitely a cause for concern. We should not pretend otherwise. I do realize it is still early , but I wouldn't want to wait until mid season to address it.

 

 

But then it is still January 3rd and the Yankees don’t have Machado or a new significant bullpen piece yet. So far they have only added Paxton, a talented pitcher with a knack for getting injured. The Sox have added a full season of Eovaldi, who is essentially the same thing. The two teams have combined to lose 4 of the best bullpen arms available this off-season and have not replaced any of them yet.

 

This situation is going to change on both sides...

[mvp 78]

EXTRA EXTRA! READ ALL ABOUT IT!

 

Desperate Dave (he of 3 straight division titles) can't build a team anymore and doesn't know how to sign free agents!

[dgalehouse]

Phils sign Robertson . One more quality reliever off the market.

[notin]

The Yankees have been just as inactive as the Sox, with both teams really just adding one starter and the Sox bringing back a weak side of a 1b platoon.

 

The AL East team taking the most advantage this off-season is the Tampa Rays, who finished last season an impressive 90-72 despite getting of to a 15-21 start. I think they’ve been involved in about as many 3-team trades than the Sox and Yanks have combined transactions...