A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[moonslav59]

What I am saying is that there is no improvement over the team that won it all this year. Basically the same team minus Kelly and Kimbrel . D.D. needs to fill those shoes just to stay as good as we were at the end . Sure , it will be good to have Eovaldi and Pearce from the start .

 

I get what you are saying, but you also said this...

So far this off season , the competition is improving while the Sox are having some difficulty just staying the same.

 

The Guardians lost Brantley and others, and are looking to dump a top starter.

 

The Astros added Brantley but lost Morton and will likely lose Keuchel and Gonzalez.

 

The Yankees added Paxton, but look to lose Lynn, Britton & Robertson, not to mention weakening their farm depth.

 

There are still some signings and acquisitions to go, so let's wait and see, before we claim others are getting better. Right now, all top AL contenders are worse, on paper, than last year.

[notin]

A big mistake was made after the 2013 championship. Absolutely nothing was accomplished that off season . I felt that complacency was evident. The results were not too good. I think you need to stay aggressive.

 

It proved the old adage “If you stand still, you’re roadkill.”

 

It was a tough offseason to make improvements because the majority of the roster was under contract for another year or two and getting too old to make deals.

 

One thing that really hurt that team was a foolish belief that Will Middlebrooks didn’t suck, as it required I -season moves that compromised bringing up younger players and eventually lead to the horrific signing of Pablo Sandoval. The failure of Garin Cecchini in the upper minors also didn’t help.

 

I’ve said it many times - Middlebrooks should have been dealt for Peavy.

[moonslav59]

It proved the old adage “If you stand still, you’re roadkill.”

 

It was a tough offseason to make improvements because the majority of the roster was under contract for another year or two and getting too old to make deals.

 

One thing that really hurt that team was a foolish belief that Will Middlebrooks didn’t suck, as it required I -season moves that compromised bringing up younger players and eventually lead to the horrific signing of Pablo Sandoval. The failure of Garin Cecchini in the upper minors also didn’t help.

 

I’ve said it many times - Middlebrooks should have been dealt for Peavy.

 

I remember being lambasted for suggesting we trade Middy and a prospect for Trevor Bauer.

[dgalehouse]

I get what you are saying, but you also said this...

So far this off season , the competition is improving while the Sox are having some difficulty just staying the same.

 

The Guardians lost Brantley and others, and are looking to dump a top starter.

 

The Astros added Brantley but lost Morton and will likely lose Keuchel and Gonzalez.

 

The Yankees added Paxton, but look to lose Lynn, Britton & Robertson, not to mention weakening their farm depth.

 

There are still some signings and acquisitions to go, so let's wait and see, before we claim others are getting better. Right now, all top AL contenders are worse, on paper, than last year.

 

I think the Astro's pitching will be fine . I see the Rays as improved . I figure the Yankees for Machado. It will be interesting to see who gets Britton. Not sure what the Guardians are thinking , not worried about them anyway.

[Bellhorn04]

A big mistake was made after the 2013 championship. Absolutely nothing was accomplished that off season . I felt that complacency was evident. The results were not too good. I think you need to stay aggressive.

 

We're in no position to be aggressive. Our payroll is already through the roof and our farm is depleted.

 

But we have one hell of a team lined up for 2019. Our stars are all still in prime years. The 2013 team was much more veteran-centric. Really very dissimilar to the 2018 team.

[dgalehouse]

We're in no position to be aggressive. Our payroll is already through the roof and our farm is depleted.

 

But we have one hell of a team lined up for 2019. Our stars are all still in prime years. The 2013 team was much more veteran-centric. Really very dissimilar to the 2018 team.

 

We'll see what happens over the next few weeks. I'll feel better if we do shore up the bullpen a bit.

[moonslav59]

We'll see what happens over the next few weeks. I'll feel better if we do shore up the bullpen a bit.

 

I'm with you all the way.

 

I am certain we end up getting a significant pen arm before opening day. My guess is we try to get one via trade (maybe Swihart & Chavis/Dalbec), so we can stayt under the $40M mark and have a little bit of space for a mid summer pick-up.

[moonslav59]

Looks like Fiers might go to the A's for about $15M/2.

 

These FAs are expensive!

[harmony]

I remember being lambasted for suggesting we trade Middy and a prospect for Trevor Bauer.

 

Compare the cumulative slash lines for these Red Sox third basemen at the end of their second MLB seasons:

 

WM 169 G, 660 PA, .254/.294/.462/.756, 168 SO, OPS+ 102

RD 179 G, 730 PA, .254/.311/.449/.760, 178 SO, OPS+ 100

Edited December 22, 2018 by harmony

[moonslav59]

Compare the cumulative slash lines for these Red Sox third basemen at the end of their second MLB seasons:

 

WM 169 G, 660 PA, .254/.294/.462/.756, 168 SO, OPS+ 102

RD 179 G, 730 PA, .254/.311/.449/.760, 178 SO, OPS+ 100

 

So, would you rather have Middy or Devers?

 

Look at minor league numbers and K rates.

 

Look at ages.

[harmony]

So, would you rather have Middy or Devers?

 

Look at minor league numbers and K rates.

 

Look at ages.

 

I would rather have Rafael Devers, although he remains under team control only through his age 26 season, perhaps short of the conventional prime years.

 

Their strikeout rates in their first two seasons were remarkably similar: each fell one strikeout short of averaging precisely one strikeout per game.

[Northern Star]

Isn't this question really unfair, since we know Middlebrooks fell off a cliff, while Devers is still only 22 and has potential for a better career arc.

[moonslav59]

I would rather have Rafael Devers, although he remains under team control only through his age 26 season, perhaps short of the conventional prime years.

 

Their strikeout rates in their first two seasons were remarkably similar: each fell one strikeout short of averaging precisely one strikeout per game.

 

Here's the true comp:

 

Age Level OPS K/PA

Middy

19 A- .666 73/226

20 A .753 123/427

21 A+ .770 121/481

22 AA/AAA .834 114/472

23 MLB .835 70/286

24 MLB .696 98/374

 

Devers

18 A .773 84/508

19 A+ .779 94/546

20 AA/AAA .955 63/358

20 MLB .819 57/240

21 MLB .731 121/490

 

Comparing Devers's ML numbers at the ages Middy was in single A is a bit far-fetched.

[harmony]

Isn't this question really unfair, since we know Middlebrooks fell off a cliff, while Devers is still only 22 and has potential for a better career arc.

Steamer has an optimistic 2019 projection for Rafael Devers. After he posted 1.7 fWAR in his first 730 plate appearances over 179 games, Devers is projected with 2.5 WAR, a .270/.328/.476/.804 line and a wRC+ of 111 in 522 plate appearances over 130 games in 2019:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=17350&position=3B

 

Marcel is less bullish with a 2019 projection of a .257/.318/.451/.769 line in 469 plate appearances:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/deverra01.shtml

Edited December 22, 2018 by harmony

[Bellhorn04]

I would rather have Rafael Devers, although he remains under team control only through his age 26 season, perhaps short of the conventional prime years.

 

Their strikeout rates in their first two seasons were remarkably similar: each fell one strikeout short of averaging precisely one strikeout per game.

 

Devers has a better K/BB ratio though. His is about 3/1, whereas WMB's was about 5/1.

[harmony]

Here's the true comp:

 

Age Level OPS K/PA

Middy

19 A- .666 73/226

20 A .753 123/427

21 A+ .770 121/481

22 AA/AAA .834 114/472

23 MLB .835 70/286

24 MLB .696 98/374

 

Devers

18 A .773 84/508

19 A+ .779 94/546

20 AA/AAA .955 63/358

20 MLB .819 57/240

21 MLB .731 121/490

 

Comparing Devers's ML numbers at the ages Middy was in single A is a bit far-fetched.

I doubt the Red Sox will place Rafael Devers on the shelf for three years to make an age-appropriate comparison.

 

Devers will sink or swim as a young player who posted 0.8 fWAR and a wRC+ of 110 in 58 games of his age 20 season and 1.0 fWAR and a wRC+ of 90 in 121 games of his age 21 season.

 

Expectations should be tempered as Devers could get better, worse or remain about the same.

[harmony]

Devers has a better K/BB ratio though. His is about 3/1, whereas WMB's was about 5/1.

That's one of the reasons I would prefer Rafael Devers over Will Middlebrooks (at the end of their respective second MLB seasons).

[Bellhorn04]

Expectations should be tempered as Devers could get better, worse or remain about the same.

 

You are a fearless prognosticator!

[harmony]

You are a fearless prognosticator!

A fearless prognosticator is a foolish prognosticator.:)

[moonslav59]

I doubt the Red Sox will place Rafael Devers on the shelf for three years to make an age-appropriate comparison.

 

Devers will sink or swim as a young player who posted 0.8 fWAR and a wRC+ of 110 in 58 games of his age 20 season and 1.0 fWAR and a wRC+ of 90 in 121 games of his age 21 season.

 

Expectations should be tempered as Devers could get better, worse or remain about the same.

 

Come on, harmony.

 

You know my point wasn't about putting Devers on the shelf for 3 years.

 

Choosing Middy as a comp was a bad choice. The only thing they have in common is the team they played for and more Ks than wanted.

 

Yes, there is still a lot to be discovered with Devers, but the at his age, one can expect improvement.

 

[harmony]

Come on, harmony.

 

You know my point wasn't about putting Devers on the shelf for 3 years.

 

Choosing Middy as a comp was a bad choice. The only thing they have in common is the team they played for and more Ks than wanted.

 

Yes, there is still a lot to be discovered with Devers, but the at his age, one can expect improvement.

 

Did Rafael Devers improve between his age 20 and age 21 seasons?

 

I will not be surprised if Devers improves but wide range of outcomes are possible.

 

I offered the comparison to show the remarkable similarities (despite the age difference). I initially drew no conclusion but when prompted I wrote that I would prefer Rafael Devers over Will Middlebrooks after their first two respectively MLB seasons.

Edited December 23, 2018 by harmony

[moonslav59]

Did Rafael Devers improve between his age 20 and age 21 seasons?

 

I will not be surprised if Devers improves but wide range of outcomes are possible.

 

I offered the comparison to show the remarkable similarities (despite the age difference). I initially drew no conclusion but when prompted I wrote that I would prefer Rafael Devers over Will Middlebrooks after their first two respectively MLB seasons.

 

Of course RD may fizzle, and he may not even stick at 3B, but the kid has done very well while playing against players much older than him.

 

I may just be a homer, but I'm expecting great things from Devers. I was never on Middy's bandwagon and must have suggested dozens of trades over a year and a half or so.

[moonslav59]

Best case scenario:

 

1) No major injuries and few minor ones.

 

2) We acquire a solid closer, and the rest of the pen does well- maybe Thornburg comes through.

 

3) Porcello & Price pitch close to 200 IP. Sale and ERod pitch near 180 IP.

 

4) Eovaldi gives us a big boost by replacing Pom's innings and giving us over 170 IP, instead if the 54 he gave us in 2018 (plus Pom's 74 IP).

 

5) Devers give us 100-150 more PAs, and his OPS is more like .831 not 2018's .731.

 

6) Pearce goes from 165 PAs to over 300, and Moreland doesn't hit a mid season wall like he has the last 2 seasons.

 

7) Nunez plays more like 2017 than 2018, and/or Holt continues like 2018. (Or, Pedey returns near old form.)

 

8) Vaz and Leon return to their career norm OPS and not repeat 2018's numbers:

Vaz: .540 in 2018 (.632 career/.735 in 2017)

Leon: .511 in 2018 (.626 career/ .845 in 2016)

A hundred point gain here might absorb any drop-offs elsewhere.

 

9) Replace HRam's 195 PAs (.708), Kinsler's 143 (.604) & Phillips' 27 (.520) with much better production from Pearce, Pedey, Holt & Nunez.

 

10) More innings from Brasier, Thornbueg, Wright, Workman and Poyner give us a boost and not a let down.

 

 

[moonslav59]

I remember when I was discussing how many of our up and coming young stars had a setback in 2017, some suggested that maybe these players just weren't as good as we thought they were, and their early career success might have been outlier seasons. Maybe 2018 put that argument to rest, but I'm sure some people (especially non Sox fans) might think 2018 was a peak year for many of our players, and a regression should be expected.

 

While that certainly could happen, if you look at the the ages of our key players, I'm thinking there's an equally good chance we see continued improvement.

 

(Listed in orderof most PAs in 2018)

 

Beni had more PAs than anyone else this year, and he's just 23. I could see him going over a .900 OPS in 2019. He was at .830 this year.

 

JD Martinez is 30, so one could expect regression from his 1.031 OPS in 2018. Still, it wouldn't surprise me, if he does as well or better.

 

Betts is just 25. He should give us 80-100 more PAs this year and repeat his 1.078 OPS or do even better. (I'm not betting he will, but at his age, he could.)

 

Bogey could give us 80 more PAs, too. He took a big step up at age 25, as one might expect, but there's a good chance he does the same or better in 2019.

 

JBJ, at age 28, finally seemed to find the consistency we've been looking for from him in years. He started very slowly, but he ended up with over 4 months of steady hitting capped off by playoff heroics that will never be forgotten. He's heading towards post prime years, but he's still young enough for a solid season.

 

Nunez needs to get healthy. He hit .677 this year, and one could expect better, if he is healthy.

 

Devers is just 22. The sky seems to be the limit for him. I'm hopeful he busts out this year, but certainly he could struggle again, this year.

 

Moreland/Pearce platoon gives us great hope for a significant improvement. While both are over 32, we will have Pearce all year and no HRam.

 

Holt is 30. I doubt we can expect a .774 OPS and over 360 PAs, but if Pedey returns, we may not need it.

 

Vaz & Leon both hit about 100 points below their career OPS. Both are still under 30, so we can hope they return to norms in 2019.

 

Our oldest pitcher is Wright at 33. Price is 32, and Brasier is 30. That's a very prime year staff.

 

[moonslav59]

Charlie Morton signs with the Rays.

 

$15M x 2 years

 

3rd year option is set at...

$15M with 0-30 days on the DL

$10M with 31-90 days

$5M with 91-150 days

$3M with 151-200 days

$1M for more than 200 days

 

[dgalehouse]

Did Rafael Devers improve between his age 20 and age 21 seasons?

 

I will not be surprised if Devers improves but wide range of outcomes are possible.

 

I offered the comparison to show the remarkable similarities (despite the age difference). I initially drew no conclusion but when prompted I wrote that I would prefer Rafael Devers over Will Middlebrooks after their first two respectively MLB seasons.

 

The Cooler strikes again.

[Nick]

I remember when I was discussing how many of our up and coming young stars had a setback in 2017, some suggested that maybe these players just weren't as good as we thought they were, and their early career success might have been outlier seasons. Maybe 2018 put that argument to rest, but I'm sure some people (especially non Sox fans) might think 2018 was a peak year for many of our players, and a regression should be expected.

 

While that certainly could happen, if you look at the the ages of our key players, I'm thinking there's an equally good chance we see continued improvement.

 

(Listed in orderof most PAs in 2018)

 

Beni had more PAs than anyone else this year, and he's just 23. I could see him going over a .900 OPS in 2019. He was at .830 this year.

 

JD Martinez is 30, so one could expect regression from his 1.031 OPS in 2018. Still, it wouldn't surprise me, if he does as well or better.

 

Betts is just 25. He should give us 80-100 more PAs this year and repeat his 1.078 OPS or do even better. (I'm not betting he will, but at his age, he could.)

 

Bogey could give us 80 more PAs, too. He took a big step up at age 25, as one might expect, but there's a good chance he does the same or better in 2019.

 

JBJ, at age 28, finally seemed to find the consistency we've been looking for from him in years. He started very slowly, but he ended up with over 4 months of steady hitting capped off by playoff heroics that will never be forgotten. He's heading towards post prime years, but he's still young enough for a solid season.

 

Nunez needs to get healthy. He hit .677 this year, and one could expect better, if he is healthy.

 

Devers is just 22. The sky seems to be the limit for him. I'm hopeful he busts out this year, but certainly he could struggle again, this year.

 

Moreland/Pearce platoon gives us great hope for a significant improvement. While both are over 32, we will have Pearce all year and no HRam.

 

Holt is 30. I doubt we can expect a .774 OPS and over 360 PAs, but if Pedey returns, we may not need it.

 

Vaz & Leon both hit about 100 points below their career OPS. Both are still under 30, so we can hope they return to norms in 2019.

 

Our oldest pitcher is Wright at 33. Price is 32, and Brasier is 30. That's a very prime year staff.

 

 

All positives.....This is a good team on paper that's done it before where it counts, on the field.

 

Last year at this time, we had Hanley. He was replaced by JD Martinez. We had Pom. Now we have Eovaldi. We had no partner for Moreland. Now we have full year of Pearce. We wanted to know if Betts would come back from his pedestrian performance from 2017. He answered with a MVP season. JBJ is slowing rounding into all around professional. Devers made his sophomore adjustments. Sure it was painful at times but he survived. Beni overcame his sophomore year from 2017 and came back strong. Price bounced back. In my mind his contract has been well worth it. 3 division titles and a world series ring in his three years. E Rod looked stellar while he was healthy.

 

I'm just not concerned with this team. DD will do something about the pen before it's all said and done. It's only day before Christmas Eve.

Edited December 23, 2018 by Nick

[moonslav59]

MLBTR...

 

Free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel was reportedly seeking a $100MM-plus contract as of earlier this month, though it’s “believed” he has dropped his price, Heyman writes. According to Heyman, the 30-year-old Kimbrel has gone down to $86MM – the same value of the five-year deal the Yankees gave Aroldis Chapman in 2016. Chapman’s contract remains the richest ever for a reliever, and given Kimbrel’s production to date, it’s unsurprising he’s aiming to match or exceed it. Also unsurprising: Kimbrel’s price is still too rich for the Red Sox’s blood, Heyman hears, suggesting they may be willing to go to four years and $60MM to $70MM.

[moonslav59]

All positives.....This is a good team on paper that's done it before where it counts, on the field.

 

Last year at this time, we had Hanley. He was replaced by JD Martinez. We had Pom. Now we have Eovaldi. We had no partner for Moreland. Now we have full year of Pearce. We wanted to know if Betts would come back from his pedestrian performance from 2017. He answered with a MVP season. JBJ is slowing rounding into all around professional. Devers made his sophomore adjustments. Sure it was painful at times but he survived. Beni overcame his sophomore year from 2017 and came back strong. Price bounced back. In my mind his contract has been well worth it. 3 division titles and a world series ring in his three years. E Rod looked stellar while he was healthy.

 

I'm just not concerned with this team. DD will do something about the pen before it's all said and done. It's only day before Christmas Eve.

 

Well said. I will say that last winter, we were pretty confident about Pom, though.

 

[dgalehouse]

I am about as optimistic as anyone. However, it is not realistic to expect that Eovaldi , Price and Pearce will be able to maintain the level of play they showed in October. It is not realistic to think that everyone else will stay healthy and productive. It is not realistic to think that those who need to improve will actually do so. Winning as decisively as we did can breed a false sense of confidence. Now the first order of business is to fill out the bullpen with two quality arms , at least one of whom has the ability to close. Then we should be ready to defend our title. But expect a tough battle with the Yankees . That is reality.