A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[moonslav59]

Two problems with this. Porcello isn't an ace. He's a guy you throw into the middle of your rotation and be happy. Also, Porcello isn't cheap. Look at what the Yanks gave up for Paxton. Paxton isn't durable, so theres a knock, but he is an ace level pitcher when healthy. He is under cheap control for 2 seasons and all he cost was one top prospect, a high floor pitcher and an OFer with promise who was old for his league in 2018. The likelihood of getting a top prospect for Porcello and getting salary relief is low. You are likely looking at dealing him away for something valuable and another contract or getting some B level players and ridding yourselves of the contract entirely. This is why Porcello is on your team still. His worth to the sox vs what he would be worth elsewhere is tilted significantly. There is also the matter of your main rival being very RH dominant and the rest of your staff being left handed sans Eo.

 

Yes, I mentioned the lefty thing.

 

You are right about not expecting to gt a top prospect without some salary relief, but maybe we could get a decent RP'er and save enough money to sing Kikuchi and still spend less than Porcello alone.

 

Again, I am not for this type of dealing. I just mentioned it as a possibility, if we are looking to cut salary and stay competitive. (I'm also not sure how highly DD & Co value Kikuchi.

[moonslav59]

I'm a little bored right now too Moon and more than likely I'm going to try to stir up a little trouble.

 

Uh oh!

 

notin, take notice!

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Nick, I agree with you on that one.

 

To look back on the history here, when the Yankees signed Teixeira, we gave up the 25th pick in the 2009 draft. We won a title in 2009. That draft pick turned into Mike Trout. Flags wave forever, but damn I would love to see Trout in pinstripes!

[Bellhorn04]

Never have those penalties hurt us on the field beyond just paying out cash. The sox are the first team to incur a penalty with tangible talent detracted without bringing talent in. Losing $2.5 mil in draft pool and losing 2 picks in the 30s is a significant hit as will the drop in INTL funds. Think about this for a second. The sox would have had the 33rd and 36th (Kimbrel) picks in the draft. They will now have the 43rd and 136th picks in the draft. Their draft pool drops by $2.5 mil, which hurts the chances of drafting a guy high who will cost less and dropping back to get a signability case. They also will lose $1 mil in IFA funds. To put that into perspective, the sox will have one extra pick on the Yankees but about $200K less in funds, and by draft order would have only picked two spots after the Yanks

 

I think you're wrong about the loss of IFA funds. You only lose IFA funds if you sign a free agent who received a qualifying offer. You lose $500,000 if you were under the luxury tax cap and $1 million if you were over the cap.

[notin]

Nick, I agree with you on that one.

 

To look back on the history here, when the Yankees signed Teixeira, we gave up the 25th pick in the 2009 draft. We won a title in 2009. That draft pick turned into Mike Trout. Flags wave forever, but damn I would love to see Trout in pinstripes!

 

That does operate on the assumption the Yankees would have drafted Trout. A lot of teams passed on him, including the Angels once.

 

The Nationals passed on him to select Drew Storen. Imagine if they selected Trout. Trout, Harper, Strasbourg and Rendon all added in a 3 year stretch? They could have been a monster team...

[moonslav59]

That does operate on the assumption the Yankees would have drafted Trout. A lot of teams passed on him, including the Angels once.

 

The Nationals passed on him to select Drew Storen. Imagine if they selected Trout. Trout, Harper, Strasbourg and Rendon all added in a 3 year stretch? They could have been a monster team...

 

They probably still would have blown it.

[jacksonianmarch]

Trout was from NJ. I highly doubt they’d pass on a kid from their area

[moonslav59]

Trout was from NJ. I highly doubt they’d pass on a kid from their area

 

Vineland, NJ is about the same distance as Baltimore, who passed on him before the Yanks did.

[notin]

Trout was from NJ. I highly doubt they’d pass on a kid from their area

 

Since 2000, the Yankees have picked players from New York or New Jersey twice in the first riund (Eric Duncan, Cito Culver).

 

In that same timeframe they have used 10 first round picks on players from California. Maybe it’s just me, but geography doesn’t seem to be a big factor here.

 

I’m not saying they definitely wouldn’t have picked Trout, but I am saying maybe they valued Slade Heathcott over him...

[moonslav59]

Since 2000, the Yankees have picked players from New York or New Jersey twice in the first riund (Eric Duncan, Cito Culver).

 

In that same timeframe they have used 10 first round picks on players from California. Maybe it’s just me, but geography doesn’t seem to be a big factor here.

 

I’m not saying they definitely wouldn’t have picked Trout, but I am saying maybe they valued Slade Heathcott over him...

 

I remember hearing Cashman rave about Slade.

 

(Maybe it was the movie, though.)

[Kimmi]

I get that line up changes don't make a big difference, and for the amount of time I spend on suggestions, it's probably wasted time. I just get bored this time of year.

 

You, of course, are welcome to make as many line up changes and suggestions as you want.

 

I'm just probably not going to agree with them.

[Kimmi]

That's right. I'm fine with it, and all Sox fans should be. We ploughed through all the limits in quest of a ring. We got the ring, we have to pay the penalties.

 

That said, it also points out that it wouldn't be a very sharp strategy to do this every year.

 

It could also be said that it's only a sharp strategy because we won it all. What is we had been knocked out in the first round again?

 

If it hadn't have worked, things would not be looking as 'okay' with the penalties as they do now.

[Kimmi]

You don't want this to happen every year, but if it happens occasionally, no big deal at all. This is basically Ben Cherington's mess. John Henry decided that he wasn't going to handicap the team due to Cherington's mismanagement. John Henry is the greatest owner in baseballl--no one else has won 4 championships in the 21st Century.

 

Actually, this is more Cherington's championship than it is Dombrowski's.

[Kimmi]

If the Sox can repeat, Dustin Pedroia would be the first player in team history to win four rings with the Red Sox. Right now, he is tied at three with David Ortiz (04, 07, 13), Harry Hooper (1912, 1915, 1918) and Heinie Wagner (1912, 1915, 1918).

 

Duffy Lewis would also be on this list, but he did not play in 1918 as he was serving in the Navy. He returned to MLB in 1919, but as a Yankee...

 

Well, Pedroia definitely needs to be on that list. The Sox have no choice but to repeat.

[Kimmi]

Let's turn around the conversation the other way. For all your negative nannies.

 

If we found out that the team in order to save 10 slots in the draft failed to sign that critical player at midyear or give up someone that could have helped down the line was the cause of the Sox not winning it all, how would we all react?

 

I seriously doubt after each transaction, you can calculate it to the penny how much you are over, no? Is the player benefit component set in stone before end of the season? Also how do you KNOW that Pom was NOT NEEDED back in July?

 

Again, we have bunch of Monday morning quarterbacks and penny pinchers wanting heads on both sides of the coin. I want these guys investing my money because apparently they know exact lows and highs in every stock transaction.

 

GOOD f***ING GRIEF. I'll take every penalty for winning the world series.

 

I don't think anyone is really complaining about the penalty.

 

I'm probably one of the posters most against this big spending, and I'm fine with the penalty because it got us a ring.

[Kimmi]

Alright Nick. I like the fire in this post!

 

Don't encourage the fire where there need not be any.

[moonslav59]

You, of course, are welcome to make as many line up changes and suggestions as you want.

 

I'm just probably not going to agree with them.

 

That's fine.

 

I am glad Cora is looking to move Betts to the 2 slot. I wanted him there this year.

 

I'm hopeful Beni will improve vs LHPs, but I'm fine with keeping him up first full time.

 

Cora did use Pearce in the 3rd slot thirteen times last year and in the playoffs, too, I believe, so I'm not really that much more radical than the status quo.

 

I could see Cora doing this...

 

1. Beni

2. Betts

3. Bogey vs R/Pearce v L

4. JD

5. Moreland v R/Bogey v L

6. Devers

7. Pedey/Holt/Nunez

8. Vaz/Leon

9. JBJ

 

Is this all that much different?

1. Beni v R/Bogey v L

2. Betts

3. Bogey v R/Pearce v L

4. JD

5. Devers v R/Beni v L

6. Moreland v R/Devers v L

7. Pedey/Holt/Nunez

8. JBJ

9. Vaz/Leon

 

[moonslav59]

Don't encourage the fire where there need not be any.

 

And now I know how Joan of Arc felt

Now I know how Joan of Arc felt

As the flames rose to her roman nose

And her Walkman started to melt

 

-The Smiths

 

[Kimmi]

That's fine.

 

I am glad Cora is looking to move Betts to the 2 slot. I wanted him there this year.

 

I'm hopeful Beni will improve vs LHPs, but I'm fine with keeping him up first full time.

 

Cora did use Pearce in the 3rd slot thirteen times last year and in the playoffs, too, I believe, so I'm not really that much more radical than the status quo.

 

I could see Cora doing this...

 

1. Beni

2. Betts

3. Bogey vs R/Pearce v L

4. JD

5. Moreland v R/Bogey v L

6. Devers

7. Pedey/Holt/Nunez

8. Vaz/Leon

9. JBJ

 

Is this all that much different?

1. Beni v R/Bogey v L

2. Betts

3. Bogey v R/Pearce v L

4. JD

5. Devers v R/Beni v L

6. Moreland v R/Devers v L

7. Pedey/Holt/Nunez

8. JBJ

9. Vaz/Leon

 

 

If it were me, I'd go with

1. Betts

2. Beni

3. Pearce/Moreland

4. JD

5. Bogaerts

6. Devers

7. Pedroia

8. Vaz/Leon

9. JBJ

 

and call it a day.

[moonslav59]

If it were me, I'd go with

1. Betts

2. Beni

3. Pearce/Moreland

4. JD

5. Bogaerts

6. Devers

7. Pedroia

8. Vaz/Leon

9. JBJ

 

and call it a day.

 

I'd call it a bad day (LOL).

 

Moreland up 3rd cannot happen.

 

Bogey is on the rise. Devers could be, too.

 

I might even hit Pearce vs a good chunk of righties.

[Bellhorn04]

Actually, this is more Cherington's championship than it is Dombrowski's.

 

And 2013 was more Theo's than Ben's?

[Kimmi]

I'd call it a bad day (LOL).

 

Moreland up 3rd cannot happen.

 

Bogey is on the rise. Devers could be, too.

 

I might even hit Pearce vs a good chunk of righties.

 

I prefer Moreland hitting 3rd instead of 4th or 5th like he did so often last year.

 

I'd be okay with switching Pedroia and the Moreland/Pearce duo.

[Kimmi]

And 2013 was more Theo's than Ben's?

 

I'm fine with that.

 

But remember, Ben was Theo's right hand man and had a part in everything that Theo did.

 

Dombrowski walked into a gold mine that he had no part in assembling before he became GM.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm fine with that.

 

But remember, Ben was Theo's right hand man and had a part in everything that Theo did.

 

Dombrowski walked into a gold mine that he had no part in assembling before he became GM.

 

I think Ben should get most of the credit for 2013, and I think Dombrowski should get a lot of the credit for 2018.

 

I know you feel differently. That's fine of course, we're all entitled to our opinions.

[Kimmi]

I think Ben should get most of the credit for 2013, and I think Dombrowski should get a lot of the credit for 2018.

 

I know you feel differently. That's fine of course, we're all entitled to our opinions.

 

Dombrowski gets his share of credit.

 

Just don't make Ben out to be some kind of incompetent fool while making Dombrowski out to be the genius that saved this team from the abyss. I don't mean you personally, but there's a lot more of that kind of thinking here than I think you realize.

[cp176]

Dombrowski gets his share of credit.

 

Just don't make Ben out to be some kind of incompetent fool while making Dombrowski out to be the genius that saved this team from the abyss. I don't mean you personally, but there's a lot more of that kind of thinking here than I think you realize.

 

ok - Please don't make Ben Cherington out to be some sort of genius with respect to anything. Ben had a job. Ben did a job as well as he could. He deserves credit for that but everything that DD has done can not be directly traced to what Ben Cherington did. DD is DD and Ben is Ben. DD has the job and he has done it well. When I compliment him, it really has nothing to do with Ben. I am very pleased with the job that DD has done and I am glad that it seems as though he will be leading us in the future. Now - me saying that really isn't saying anything negative about Ben Cherington.

[moonslav59]

Certainly, everything DD has done cannot be traced to Ben, but a lot of it had to do with the farm Ben left him.

 

Of course, one could also argue Ben's Pablo, HRam and Castillo signings restricted DD in a major way (and still is).

 

[notin]

Dombrowski gets his share of credit.

 

Just don't make Ben out to be some kind of incompetent fool while making Dombrowski out to be the genius that saved this team from the abyss. I don't mean you personally, but there's a lot more of that kind of thinking here than I think you realize.

 

Despite what his detractors like to say about Cherington, he wasn’t fired. In fact Dombrowski was reportedly disappointed tat he quit...

[Bellhorn04]

Despite what his detractors like to say about Cherington, he wasn’t fired. In fact Dombrowski was reportedly disappointed tat he quit...

 

He wasn't fired, but he was effectively demoted. It's not surprising that he quit.

[moonslav59]

He wasn't fired, but he was effectively demoted. It's not surprising that he quit.

 

I wonder what role Ben would have ended up with had he stayed. Certainly, he would not have had the same power as before, but he might not have had as much power stripped away as we seem to think.

 

Remember how the Larry vs Theo and Larry vs Ben debates went on for years.