A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Nick]

And that is a legitimate argument. My question for you Larry is, would you take a 5 year run of consistent winning with at least 1 title knowing you'd have a 3 year or so down phase where you didn't win?

 

 

I would suggest resetting every 4th year and going got it other three years.

 

So 2019 will be 2nd and 2020 will be 3rd year 'going' for and we then reset.

 

2017 tax reset Below $195M

2018 budget near $237M ($40M plus tax limit)

2019 budget near $246M

2020 budget near $248M.

 

2019 we're at $224M. We can sign Eovaldi and pick up a closer if need to in July. Say $18M for Eovaldi, putting Sox at $242M. Starting rotation of Price, Sale, Porcello, E Rod and Eovaldi. All position players are back.

 

2020 Sandoval contract of $18M plus Nunez contract of $5M should cover most of the arbitration raises. I'm going to assume we'll sign Xander. His delta should be covered by Pearce/Moreland pay. Keep your fingers cross and JD returns for one more year. If JD returns, we sign Sale with Porcello's contract. We lose one starter, but we still have Price, Sale, E Rod and Eovaldi. We replace 1B internally (chavis?). Gotta live with him or Dalbec. If JD leaves, then sign both Porcello and Price with JD's money, $22M. Sale at $33M and Porcello at $25M. (that's $21M raise for both combined). Sign someone cheap to handle DH.

 

2021 Use JBJ's money to take care of Bett's delta and other arbitration raises. Screw the reset.

 

2022 We'll need to trade away some veterans to pay our younger players. CBA will be reset for 2022. Hope it goes up to $250M.

Edited December 5, 2018 by Nick

[dgalehouse]

It's a conundrum. How do you have a championship team and a strong farm system at the same time ? The easiest way to build a strong farm is to have a crappy team. You get the top draft picks every year . Any good players that you may have , you trade for even more prospects. The trouble is , your fans start to lose interest. Attendance is down. Revenue drops. But your farm is well stocked with prospects . Maybe a few of them will actually pan out. But you still won't have a championship team. You will have to be satisfied with a certain modicum of success.

[Larry Cook]

And that is a legitimate argument. My question for you Larry is, would you take a 5 year run of consistent winning with at least 1 title knowing you'd have a 3 year or so down phase where you didn't win?

 

I do not believe it is an “either or” choice. I believe you can have prolonged success and championships.

 

Prolonged winning and keeping championship quality teams year after year is about maximizing personnel. Hard decisions are needed, unpopular decisions are needed, but it’s always about being honest about your players. (And yes, a little luck on the health front always helps)

 

Winning is addictive. We are all in need of instant gratification. Patience is in short supply. I understand why teams sell out for the chance to bag a trophy today, knowing nothing is guaranteed tomorrow!

[moonslav59]

I would suggest resetting every 4th year and going got it other three years.

 

So 2019 will be 2nd and 2020 will be 3rd year 'going' for and we then reset.

 

2017 tax reset Below $195M

2018 budget near $237M ($40M plus tax limit)

2019 budget near $246M

2020 budget near $248M.

 

2019 we're at $224M. We can sign Eovaldi and pick up a closer if need to in July. Say $18M for Eovaldi, putting Sox at $242M. Starting rotation of Price, Sale, Porcello, E Rod and Eovaldi. All position players are back.

 

2020 Sandoval contract of $18M plus Nunez contract of $5M should cover most of the arbitration raises. I'm going to assume we'll sign Xander. His delta should be covered by Pearce/Moreland pay. Keep your fingers cross and JD returns for one more year. If JD returns, we sign Sale with Porcello's contract. We lose one starter, but we still have Price, Sale, E Rod and Eovaldi. We replace 1B internally (chavis?). Gotta live with him or Dalbec. If JD leaves, then sign both Porcello and Price with JD's money, $22M. Sale at $33M and Porcello at $25M. (that's $21M raise for both combined). Sign someone cheap to handle DH.

 

2021 Use JBJ's money to take care of Bett's delta and other arbitration raises. Screw the reset.

 

2022 We'll need to trade away some veterans to pay our younger players. CBA will be reset for 2022. Hope it goes up to $250M.

 

I think this is wishful thinking. 2022 is a long way away. The economy might crash by then. Hell, we could all be dead from global warming that far away! (LOL).

 

I doubt the limit goes to $250M that quickly.

 

A while ago, I thought Henry (and DD) might decide to reset teh year after we win a ring, but with the team we had last year, it would be a crime to not try one or two more years.

 

I do think we reset after 2020. We'll still spend just under the limit and may not be too bad, but we won't compete that year. We reset the tax and spend big the next year and budda-bing, we're back in the race.

 

The biggest problem with my theory is that after 2020 is when Betts becomes a FA. That works great for a reset, as losing his last arb year contract will almost get us under by itself, but he's the one guy out of everyone, I want to keep most. So, in order to keep him, we'd have to plan out current contracts to end after 2020 (like Eovaldi, a closer, or whatever). It might mean not signing Sale or Porcello or Bogey the year before, so we can later afford Betts. That kind of goes against the idea of keeping the window open for 2020 as it weakens our chances that year.

 

It's a tough call. Looking at the books and going on the assumption we want to keep Betts at all costs, it might make more sense to reset after 2019 or 2021, and not 2020.

 

Hard to know.

 

[moonslav59]

I do not believe it is an “either or” choice. I believe you can have prolonged success and championships.

 

Prolonged winning and keeping championship quality teams year after year is about maximizing personnel. Hard decisions are needed, unpopular decisions are needed, but it’s always about being honest about your players. (And yes, a little luck on the health front always helps)

 

Winning is addictive. We are all in need of instant gratification. Patience is in short supply. I understand why teams sell out for the chance to bag a trophy today, knowing nothing is guaranteed tomorrow!

 

It's very difficult these days. It was much easier back when Theo was running the team. We maxed comp picks, raided the international market and drafted players who fell in the draft due to "signability" issues. We can't do anything like that anymore.

 

Our draft picks will be lower than low, especially, if we keep going $40M over the limit.

 

The international pool shrinks the more you win and spend.

 

Signing slot money takes away from top prospects falling due to wanting more money.

 

It's easy to just say, we need to be smart and "maximize personnel," but those hard decisions will have to include deciding not to extend Sale or Porcello or Bogey, and maybe even 2 of those 3.

 

We still had a good farm when we won in 2004. We did again in 2007. Betts, Bogey and JBJ were still prospects in 2013.

 

Those were the days.

 

I doubt we ever see them again.

 

I think it's pretty much either/or and the key is to try and minimize the rebuild time periods by trying to keep some semblance of balance. Right now, our farm-ML club talent levels are about as out of whack as can be. I'm not complaining. It was necessary, and it worked. I'm thrilled the window DD created wasn't just a 1-2 year thing. The window was (is) actually about 4-5 years long!

 

Great job, DD!

 

[jacksonianmarch]

You can win and have a good farm, you just need great scouting and development. We won for years in the 90s-00s with problematic farm systems because there was no major deterrent beyond money for spending big. Then it was following the Theo method and acquiring sandwich picks and turning them into good players. Once the sandwich picks got harder to get, it was about using your draft pool well. Now, with the draft pool tightened considerably, it is about the INTL market and how best to allocate your money. The Yankees have done well in the INTL market over the years, mostly because of a continued presence throughout Venezuela, DR, Colombia and elsewhere. The sox have shown had some good signings as well. But nowadays it is about depth. You cannot just have 3 top prospects, you need to have 3 top prospects with 10 guys poised to take their spots and 10 guys behind them. With the injuries and higher velocities, hitters are failing at high rates and pitchers are getting hurt. You need to be able to weather the ebbs and flows of a farm to stay on top. The Dodgers have done that very well over the last 10 years. The sox did it well until DD took over. The Yanks started really getting good at it after George died and once we started to take a downward turn in the early 2010s.

[Bellhorn04]

I do not believe it is an “either or” choice. I believe you can have prolonged success and championships.

 

Prolonged winning and keeping championship quality teams year after year is about maximizing personnel. Hard decisions are needed, unpopular decisions are needed, but it’s always about being honest about your players. (And yes, a little luck on the health front always helps)

 

Winning is addictive. We are all in need of instant gratification. Patience is in short supply. I understand why teams sell out for the chance to bag a trophy today, knowing nothing is guaranteed tomorrow!

 

Well, it's pretty freakin' hard to complain about the Red Sox record since Henry bought the team.

 

If 4 trophies and 10 playoff appearances doesn't get it done for you, I think you definitely have gratification issues and should see a shrink about it!

[jacksonianmarch]

Also the idea of a dynasty nowadays with the playoff structure and financial constraints is a white whale. There’s a reason the last real MLB dynasty concluded their run almost 20 years ago. It’s a rare entity. Even the Giants who won 3 titles in 5 seasons missed the playoffs in the years in between titles and even had a sub .500 season interspersed.

[Bellhorn04]

Also the idea of a dynasty nowadays with the playoff structure and financial constraints is a white whale. There’s a reason the last real MLB dynasty concluded their run almost 20 years ago. It’s a rare entity. Even the Giants who won 3 titles in 5 seasons missed the playoffs in the years in between titles and even had a sub .500 season interspersed.

 

Agreed. And there are major risk and luck factors. A prime example being the big ticket free agents, like Price. That signing was looking very bad for a while. It looks a lot better now.

[moonslav59]

My view on our current positional depth chart:

 

SP

Sale

Price

Porcello

ERod

______

Wright (DL?)

Johnson

Velazquez

Shawaryn

Shepherd

Walden

Josh Smith

D Hernandez AA

T Houck AA

 

RP

______

Barnes

Brasier

Hembree

Workman

Thornburg

Poyner

R Scott

C Brewer

T Lakins

J Taylor

D Feltman AA

 

C

Vazquez

Leon

Swihart

J Centeno

O Hernandez

A Rei AA

 

1B

Moreland-Pearce

Swihart/Holt

Ockimey

Chavis

Travis

 

2B

Pedroia (DL?)

Holt

Nunez

Lin

M Hernandez

Renda

 

3B

Devers

Nunez

Holt

Chavis

M Haernandez

Dalbec AA

 

SS

Bogaerts

Lin

Holt/Nunez

M Hernandez

Chatham AA

 

LF:

Benintendi

JD Martinez

Holt/Nunez/Pearce/Moreland

Travis

 

CF

Bradley

(Betts/Beni)

T Matheny

 

RF

Betts

JD Martinez

 

DH

JD Martinez

Pearce/Nunez/Pedroia

 

 

[kenmeister]

Apparently Wright expects to be healthy by opening day and wants that 5th starter spot. We'll see...

[notin]

Apparently Wright expects to be healthy by opening day and wants that 5th starter spot. We'll see...

 

That makes things interesting with regards to Eovaldi.

 

If the Sox think Wright/Johnson can hold the fifth starter spot, then the focus turns to bullpen...

[Bellhorn04]

That makes things interesting with regards to Eovaldi.

 

If the Sox think Wright/Johnson can hold the fifth starter spot, then the focus turns to bullpen...

 

One of the Sox scribes said Dombrowski and Cora both seem to feel signing Eovaldi is the top priority.

[Bellhorn04]

Can't discount the possibility that the Yanks will be in heavy on Eovaldi now that Corbin is out of the picture.

[kenmeister]

One of the Sox scribes said Dombrowski and Cora both seem to feel signing Eovaldi is the top priority.

 

Whether the Sox really need Eovaldi or not, if scooping him up means him not playing for the Astros or Yankees then let's do it.

[notin]

Whether the Sox really need Eovaldi or not, if scooping him up means him not playing for the Astros or Yankees then let's do it.

 

NEVER sign players just to keep them away from another team. Houston and NY will find some pitching somewhere. You cannot stop them...

[kenmeister]

NEVER sign players just to keep them away from another team. Houston and NY will find some pitching somewhere. You cannot stop them...

 

Sure let them get the JA Happs of the world

 

In all seriousness, I do predict Houston gets Eovaldi.

[moonslav59]

Apparently Wright expects to be healthy by opening day and wants that 5th starter spot. We'll see...

 

Wasn't he close to ready for a playoff series roster after he was take off one?

[moonslav59]

Sure let them get the JA Happs of the world

 

In all seriousness, I do predict Houston gets Eovaldi.

 

I think so, too. They will lose Keuchel. They want Morton back, but his health is in question.

[notin]

I think so, too. They will lose Keuchel. They want Morton back, but his health is in question.

 

Morton made 56 starts and pitched over 300 innings in the last two seasons. Is there some health issue with him?

 

He’s from NJ and some speculation has him wanting to return to the northeast (Do these “free agents wants to go home” rumors ever actually happen?). If the Sox can’t sign Eovaldi, Morton is not a bad Plan B...

[kenmeister]

Wasn't he close to ready for a playoff series roster after he was take off one?

 

Remember how mad we all were at the manager whose name I already forget for letting Wright pinch run and get injured? Now we know that Wright is one of those always injured kind of guys.

 

In fact, we should do the oft-injured Sox team:

 

Wright, SP

Bucholz, SP

Jacoby Ellsbury, CF

Trot Nixon, RF

Tim Naehring, 3B

etc.

[moonslav59]

Morton made 56 starts and pitched over 300 innings in the last two seasons. Is there some health issue with him?

 

He’s from NJ and some speculation has him wanting to return to the northeast (Do these “free agents wants to go home” rumors ever actually happen?). If the Sox can’t sign Eovaldi, Morton is not a bad Plan B...

 

I seem to remember talk he might not ever play again this past Spring (I can't remember why), but he ended up playing all year until a 10 day DL for a shoulder injury in September.

 

I could be wrong.

 

I hear the Phillies want him.

[moonslav59]

Remember how mad we all were at the manager whose name I already forget for letting Wright pinch run and get injured? Now we know that Wright is one of those always injured kind of guys.

 

In fact, we should do the oft-injured Sox team:

 

Wright, SP

Bucholz, SP

Jacoby Ellsbury, CF

Trot Nixon, RF

Tim Naehring, 3B

etc.

 

You forgot "Hangnail JD Drew."

[notin]

Not really fair to include Ellsbury, who only had 2 injury-shortened seasons. And one of them was the result of getting run over by Adrian Beltre, who made a habit of breaking the ribs of Sox left fielders...

[Bellhorn04]

Sure let them get the JA Happs of the world

 

In all seriousness, I do predict Houston gets Eovaldi.

 

I would expect the Sox to match Houston's offer unless it's totally nuts, and it'll come down to where Eovaldi wants to play.

[kenmeister]

I would expect the Sox to match Houston's offer unless it's totally nuts, and it'll come down to where Eovaldi wants to play.

 

Houston badly needs a quality starting pitcher. I doubt we would want to match their offer. I read somewhere today the bidding's gone over $20 million per year for his services.

[kenmeister]

Not really fair to include Ellsbury, who only had 2 injury-shortened seasons. And one of them was the result of getting run over by Adrian Beltre, who made a habit of breaking the ribs of Sox left fielders...

 

His woes have continued with the Yankees. And 2 injury shortened seasons is a lot!

[Bellhorn04]

Houston badly needs a quality starting pitcher. I doubt we would want to match their offer. I read somewhere today the bidding's gone over $20 million per year for his services.

 

Any idea where you read it? I can't find a thing. Doesn't sound legit.

[notin]

Any idea where you read it? I can't find a thing. Doesn't sound legit.

 

Can’t find anything either.

 

But the free agents who sign earlier in the off-season seem more likely to beat the projections. The ones who sign late seem to settle.

 

So if Eovaldi is seeing the early action, maybe he’s seeing the gaudy numbers?...

[moonslav59]

Any idea where you read it? I can't find a thing. Doesn't sound legit.

 

I googled it and couldn't find it either. Maybe I'm confusing him with someone else on the 'Stros.