A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[moonslav59]

I've watched Moreland now for 2 years. Who are these guys with the character and attitude of Moreland? I watch Red Sox baseball so I'm actually not trying to argue with you. Do you watch and follow these other guys well enough you think to make that statement?

 

I choose to believe most players are good character guys and prefer to play on teams that support each other and do what is best for the team, even if it means sitting on the bench when maybe you think you should be playing.

 

Like I said, I'm okay with Moreland, but I know we are losing a lot of comparative value at 1B- a position traditionally known for big offensive numbers.

 

I get that his defense and clubhouse values offset much of that offensive loss, and I don't really view him as a net negative, but when you look at the fact that our nearest competitors will be trying to make major improvements this winter, I can't help but look at positions where we are weakest- not weak, but weakest.

 

I don't want to mess with our catching duo, despite the .533 OPS. Maybe I'm wrong about this position, but I really value the intangibles Vaz & Leon bring to the team, the staff and the clubhouse/dugout.

 

We can't afford to spend big at 2B, and with six guys who could help at 2B (Holt, Nunez, Pedey, Lin, Quiroz, Hernandez), I think we wait that position out, at least until mid-season.

 

I look at 1B and think we could (not have to) better. Losing Pearce hurts. It looks, to me, like the easiest, least costly, everyday position to upgrade over the winter.

 

We may not need to touch anything having to do with everyday players. I think we'll lead the league in runs next year, even without Pearce (and Kinsler).

 

[notin]

I've watched Moreland now for 2 years. Who are these guys with the character and attitude of Moreland? I watch Red Sox baseball so I'm actually not trying to argue with you. Do you watch and follow these other guys well enough you think to make that statement?

 

I don’t know Moreland at all, so I know nothing about his character.

 

But I used to follow Logan Morrison on Twitter because he is probably the best MLB player to follow. While occasionally he does air his gripes, he actually came across as a pretty cool guy overall who liked to let you know what was going on inside his head, and above all.

 

Granted, it’s only Twitter. But I think I have more insight into Morrison than into Moreland. All I’ve ever seen Moreland do is play baseball...

[Slasher9]

I've watched Moreland now for 2 years. Who are these guys with the character and attitude of Moreland? I watch Red Sox baseball so I'm actually not trying to argue with you. Do you watch and follow these other guys well enough you think to make that statement?

 

for all we know Moreland can be a complete a-hole.

[Slasher9]

I don’t know Moreland at all, so I know nothing about his character.

 

But I used to follow Logan Morrison on Twitter because he is probably the best MLB player to follow. While occasionally he does air his gripes, he actually came across as a pretty cool guy overall who liked to let you know what was going on inside his head, and above all.

 

Granted, it’s only Twitter. But I think I have more insight into Morrison than into Moreland. All I’ve ever seen Moreland do is play baseball...

 

Curt Schillings blog the day after he pitched was must read. absolutely awesome stuff. and he is bat s*** crazy. you just never know.

[notin]

for all we know Moreland can be a complete a-hole.

 

He might be. He might be one of those guys who gets angry at teammates for not joining his prayer group. He might be a heavy drinker or that guy who takes total control of clubhouse music.

 

He is a good (not great, but that’s ok) baseball player. The Sox could do better at 1b, but they could do worse.

 

This free agent class offers no obvious upgrades at 1b. The Sox could do something crazy like sign Josh Donaldson to play 3b and move Devers to 1b, but that’s not likely in my opinion...

[Slasher9]

He might be. He might be one of those guys who gets angry at teammates for not joining his prayer group. He might be a heavy drinker or that guy who takes total control of clubhouse music.

 

He is a good (not great, but that’s ok) baseball player. The Sox could do better at 1b, but they could do worse.

 

This free agent class offers no obvious upgrades at 1b. The Sox could do something crazy like sign Josh Donaldson to play 3b and move Devers to 1b, but that’s not likely in my opinion...

 

who knows with these guys. i think it would surprise alot of TS posters to find out that Hanley is a class guy. a huge heart that gives alot back to community. but he has those dreds so....

 

as for 1b 2019....i dont think we sign anyone. we have Mitchie pooh for 1 more season. JDM will platoon with him next year.

[cp176]

I don’t know Moreland at all, so I know nothing about his character.

 

But I used to follow Logan Morrison on Twitter because he is probably the best MLB player to follow. While occasionally he does air his gripes, he actually came across as a pretty cool guy overall who liked to let you know what was going on inside his head, and above all.

 

Granted, it’s only Twitter. But I think I have more insight into Morrison than into Moreland. All I’ve ever seen Moreland do is play baseball...

 

I don't know Moreland personally. I am basing my comments soley on what I have observed. If he is an ass-hole, I guess he hides it pretty well. It is once again just an opinion but I think that I would bet that he is a pretty decent guy and a pretty decent teammate. There are things that represent something greater than talent especially at this level.

[cp176]

who knows with these guys. i think it would surprise alot of TS posters to find out that Hanley is a class guy. a huge heart that gives alot back to community. but he has those dreds so....

 

as for 1b 2019....i dont think we sign anyone. we have Mitchie pooh for 1 more season. JDM will platoon with him next year.

 

Hanley who?

[Bellhorn04]

I don't know Moreland personally. I am basing my comments soley on what I have observed. If he is an ass-hole, I guess he hides it pretty well. It is once again just an opinion but I think that I would bet that he is a pretty decent guy and a pretty decent teammate. There are things that represent something greater than talent especially at this level.

 

Yeah, I highly doubt DD would have been so quick to re-sign him if he was a jackass.

[Nick]

Cost of luxury tax, $40M plus threshold penalty

 

2018 $40M x 20% + $20M x 12% = $ 8M + $2.4M = $10.4M total cost $50.4M

2019 $40M x 30% + $20M x 12% = $12M + $2.4M = $14.4M total cost $54.4M

2020 $40M x 50% + $20M x 12% = $20M + $2.4M = $22.4M total cost $62.4M

 

Let's keep the math simple and assume that the luxury tax payroll is $200M. My question is this. In big scheme of things, is there a huge difference between $262.4M (50% penalty) vs $250.4M (20% penalty)?

 

What I'm getting to is this. Once you make the decision NOT to adhere to the luxury tax limit of $200M, would $12M dissuade you from putting the best product on the field?

 

For the Sox, the magic number is NOT $200M, but it's $240M and penalty of $22.4M (50%-3rd year) is not much off from the penalty of $10.4M (30% - 2nd year).

 

We PISS AWAY that money each year in non performing payroll. It's only 5% more. ($12.4M/$250.4)

 

We don't need to reset. Let's just wait for the new CB Agreement and hope the threshold gets a major bump for 2022,

Edited November 15, 2018 by Nick

[notin]

I don't know Moreland personally. I am basing my comments soley on what I have observed. If he is an ass-hole, I guess he hides it pretty well. It is once again just an opinion but I think that I would bet that he is a pretty decent guy and a pretty decent teammate. There are things that represent something greater than talent especially at this level.

 

Maybe he’s a great guy. But we as fans have an extremely strong tendency to assign positive personalities to players who are playing well.

 

For example, in his first two seasons, i can’t tell you how many posters complained about how bad of a teammate John Lackey was and how awful of a human he was for always yelling at his infielders on every play as he struggled heavily in his first two seasons in Boston. But one T.J. surgery later, and Lackey is still out there yelling at infielders, but suddenly he is a good teammate. In fact, there were lots of complaints from fans when he was traded.

 

It turns out the big problem with Lackey’s personality might have been his inability to get his ERA under 5.00...

[notin]

Yeah, I highly doubt DD would have been so quick to re-sign him if he was a jackass.

 

 

Unless DD prioritized financially cheap stability.

 

I don’t want to hypothetically assign any more positive or negative personality traits to Moreland specifically, since my point is that we really don’t know and a lot of it is subjective anyway. What one person likes about a guy might be loathed by another. Moreland is a good, not great, baseball player who is extremely likely to play 1b for the Sox next year. That’s really all we know...

[cp176]

Maybe he’s a great guy. But we as fans have an extremely strong tendency to assign positive personalities to players who are playing well.

 

For example, in his first two seasons, i can’t tell you how many posters complained about how bad of a teammate John Lackey was and how awful of a human he was for always yelling at his infielders on every play as he struggled heavily in his first two seasons in Boston. But one T.J. surgery later, and Lackey is still out there yelling at infielders, but suddenly he is a good teammate. In fact, there were lots of complaints from fans when he was traded.

 

It turns out the big problem with Lackey’s personality might have been his inability to get his ERA under 5.00...

 

I think i already pretty much understand what you are talking about. For the record, I don't think that I would say Moreland has played well. Maybe I'm not your typical fan. I don't tend to be wishy washy with my feelings when it comes to an athletes apparent attitude.

[sk7326]

Maybe he’s a great guy. But we as fans have an extremely strong tendency to assign positive personalities to players who are playing well.

 

For example, in his first two seasons, i can’t tell you how many posters complained about how bad of a teammate John Lackey was and how awful of a human he was for always yelling at his infielders on every play as he struggled heavily in his first two seasons in Boston. But one T.J. surgery later, and Lackey is still out there yelling at infielders, but suddenly he is a good teammate. In fact, there were lots of complaints from fans when he was traded.

 

It turns out the big problem with Lackey’s personality might have been his inability to get his ERA under 5.00...

 

He had an okay 2010. In 2011 he was awful - but was a perfectly fine pitcher after his TJS. I have a hunch why he might have been awful in 2011.

[sk7326]

I choose to believe most players are good character guys and prefer to play on teams that support each other and do what is best for the team, even if it means sitting on the bench when maybe you think you should be playing.

 

Like I said, I'm okay with Moreland, but I know we are losing a lot of comparative value at 1B- a position traditionally known for big offensive numbers.

 

I get that his defense and clubhouse values offset much of that offensive loss, and I don't really view him as a net negative, but when you look at the fact that our nearest competitors will be trying to make major improvements this winter, I can't help but look at positions where we are weakest- not weak, but weakest.

 

I don't want to mess with our catching duo, despite the .533 OPS. Maybe I'm wrong about this position, but I really value the intangibles Vaz & Leon bring to the team, the staff and the clubhouse/dugout.

 

We can't afford to spend big at 2B, and with six guys who could help at 2B (Holt, Nunez, Pedey, Lin, Quiroz, Hernandez), I think we wait that position out, at least until mid-season.

 

I look at 1B and think we could (not have to) better. Losing Pearce hurts. It looks, to me, like the easiest, least costly, everyday position to upgrade over the winter.

 

We may not need to touch anything having to do with everyday players. I think we'll lead the league in runs next year, even without Pearce (and Kinsler).

 

 

I agree with you in isolation, but if you look at the position around the AL this year, there was not much at 1B. Moreland/whomever was about as productive as most of them. I think it is fair to say that while Moreland is not a great all around 1B, the Red Sox used him to staff the position very effectively at a cost-effective clip.

[moonslav59]

I agree with you in isolation, but if you look at the position around the AL this year, there was not much at 1B. Moreland/whomever was about as productive as most of them. I think it is fair to say that while Moreland is not a great all around 1B, the Red Sox used him to staff the position very effectively at a cost-effective clip.

 

1B certainly wasn't what it used to be.

 

You'd think in the era of the HR, 1B would be loaded with big mashers all over the place, but this year was a down year at that position.

[sk7326]

1B certainly wasn't what it used to be.

 

You'd think in the era of the HR, 1B would be loaded with big mashers all over the place, but this year was a down year at that position.

 

it definitely looks like 1B defense has been valued more than ever ... there seem to be fewer "glorified DHs" (this is true about LFs as well)

[moonslav59]

it definitely looks like 1B defense has been valued more than ever ... there seem to be fewer "glorified DHs" (this is true about LFs as well)

 

I did some research one time, on all the WS ring winners and how so many had very good to great defensive 1Bmen. I think the position is under-rated defensively by many, and maybe myself included.

 

I will say, I thought Pearce looked pretty dandy on defense for us, too.

[dgalehouse]

I think the idea of expecting certain levels of offense from the different positions has pretty much gone by the boards , except maybe for catcher. It still holds true that for a kid who is not a good hitter, catching is his best chance to make it. Not a lot of kids are anxious to get behind the plate.

[sk7326]

I did some research one time, on all the WS ring winners and how so many had very good to great defensive 1Bmen. I think the position is under-rated defensively by many, and maybe myself included.

 

I will say, I thought Pearce looked pretty dandy on defense for us, too.

 

i have no real issue with a double fisted 1B situation ... the only real improvement on the market is Goldschmidt and we don't have the stuff to do that

[notin]

I did some research one time, on all the WS ring winners and how so many had very good to great defensive 1Bmen. I think the position is under-rated defensively by many, and maybe myself included.

 

I will say, I thought Pearce looked pretty dandy on defense for us, too.

 

Yuli Gurriel might not be a glorified DH, but he also isn’t a good defensive first baseman...

[moonslav59]

Yuli Gurriel might not be a glorified DH, but he also isn’t a good defensive first baseman...

 

Yes, I did my study a few years ago, and I think I went back into the 80's or 70's. I was amazed at how many were known for being top defenders, however, most hit well, too.

[sk7326]

I think the idea of expecting certain levels of offense from the different positions has pretty much gone by the boards , except maybe for catcher. It still holds true that for a kid who is not a good hitter, catching is his best chance to make it. Not a lot of kids are anxious to get behind the plate.

 

I think the old rules still matter quite a bit. Offense on the corners, defense up the middle. Defense on the corners is awesome, but priorities are clear.

[dgalehouse]

I think the old rules still matter quite a bit. Offense on the corners, defense up the middle. Defense on the corners is awesome, but priorities are clear.

 

I think you see more middle infielders and center fielders who provide offense than you used to. Teams have come to expect offense from everywhere except maybe catcher. I just don't think the old " corners " and " up the middle " rule applies as much as before.

[notin]

I think you see more middle infielders and center fielders who provide offense than you used to. Teams have come to expect offense from everywhere except maybe catcher. I just don't think the old " corners " and " up the middle " rule applies as much as before.

 

 

Lately it’s offense at the corners and athletes up the middle. A look around the league at the shortstops aged 26 and under shows a lot of terrific all-around players....

[sk7326]

I think you see more middle infielders and center fielders who provide offense than you used to. Teams have come to expect offense from everywhere except maybe catcher. I just don't think the old " corners " and " up the middle " rule applies as much as before.

 

it still does - i mean you can see it in the "position adjustment". They aren't as stark now - but it matters.

[Kimmi]

I disagree. There was no luxury. We needed JD almost as much as he needed us. Moreland made no difference. There were 4-5 other good and cheap 1Bman on the market.

 

Moreland might not have made much of a difference, but no one knew that was going to happen during the offseason. We had a supposedly healthy Hanley/Moreland tandem at 1B with Hanley being able to fill the DH role when not playing first.

 

Dombrowski did not have to rush to sign JD.

[Kimmi]

Excluding Hanley, obviously.

 

Hanley is reportedly working out very hard to be able to come back next season.

 

I would take him back on a moderate, one year deal to platoon with Moreland.

 

Buchholz too.

[Kimmi]

who knows with these guys. i think it would surprise alot of TS posters to find out that Hanley is a class guy. a huge heart that gives alot back to community. but he has those dreds so....

 

as for 1b 2019....i dont think we sign anyone. we have Mitchie pooh for 1 more season. JDM will platoon with him next year.

 

100% in on Hanley.

[Bellhorn04]

Hanley is reportedly working out very hard to be able to come back next season.

 

I would take him back on a moderate, one year deal to platoon with Moreland.

 

Buchholz too.

 

As you know I'm with you on Buch.