A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[notin]

I like Workman, and I hope people don't give up on him based on one playoff game. He is out of options, and many teams are struggling with fitting out-of-options players into next year's plans, but I have to think we could at least trade him for something useful or a prospect,

 

Here are our bubble players who are out of options:

 

DL/Phantom DL/Trade?

Wright

Johnson

Workman

Hembree

 

Swihart

Leon

 

Trade/DL/DFA

Cuevas

 

 

Assuming they’re all healthy, I would expect Wright, Hembree, Leon, and Workman to make the team.. Johnson to be dealt. Swihart to either make the team or be dealt. Cuevas will likely be DFAd...

[Kimmi]

Or you can front load the contract with opt out after 2 years. Of course you r screwed if performance goes down or in case of in injury.

 

Give Eovaldi 5 yer $75M. Pay out $18M, $18M, $13M thereafter.

 

IMO, that is too long for Eovaldo.

 

I was thinking 3yrs/$45. I'd be willing to go a little higher on the AAV.

[Kimmi]

Yeah, that's a little too exciting.

Give me boring!

 

I am not a fan of the offseason anyway. All of the speculation and rumors flying around drives me crazy.

 

Wake me up on Opening Day, and tell me who's on the team. LOL

[Kimmi]

This offseason might be boring from a Sox perspective, but it'll be interesting to see what the Yanks and other teams do, and to see what Harper and Machado sign for.

 

I am really hoping that the predictions for those two are way out of line.

 

You'd think that the GMs would be wising up...

[moonslav59]

A fourth OF isn’t so much a need as an option. The Sox will have a fourth bench spot available and if they can’t afford Pearce, it is a potentially cheap way to round out the bench. They could also just as easily use an internal player like Lin or Travis or Quiroz or ??

 

They might even have two bench spots open if Pedroia is out and Swihart is dealt...

 

No mention of Chavis or Ockimey as the 25th man.

 

I expect one will be traded, but with an opening at 1B opening up after next year, maybe we keep both.

 

Realistically, what could we expect to get for a SP'er or pen arm for Johnson, Swihart & Chavis?

 

Or, Hembree, Swihart & Chavis?

 

[oldtimer]

A fourth OF isn’t so much a need as an option. The Sox will have a fourth bench spot available and if they can’t afford Pearce, it is a potentially cheap way to round out the bench. They could also just as easily use an internal player like Lin or Travis or Quiroz or ??

 

They might even have two bench spots open if Pedroia is out and Swihart is dealt...

 

With 13 non pitchers on the 25 man roster, we will have 9 starting players including the DH and must have a 2nd catcher. So we can have 3 other players on the 25 man. I think they will be Holt, Nunez and Pearce but who knows for sure? It does leave us with a risk factor in the Pedey may have trouble handling a full schedule even if he makes it back. Having two bench players capable of filling in for 3 infield spots when you have a second baseman at risk doesn't leave a lot of margin for injuries, illness or the like. Hope we hold onto Lin and can shelter him in the minors as he at least is a reasonable backup. Is he out of options?

[moonslav59]

IMO, that is too long for Eovaldo.

 

I was thinking 3yrs/$45. I'd be willing to go a little higher on the AAV.

 

3 years with an option 4th year with a big buyout might do the trick, but if we are looking at a reset after 2020, Eovaldi puts the pressure on what young stars we can re-sign.

[notin]

With 13 non pitchers on the 25 man roster, we will have 9 starting players including the DH and must have a 2nd catcher. So we can have 3 other players on the 25 man. I think they will be Holt, Nunez and Pearce but who knows for sure? It does leave us with a risk factor in the Pedey may have trouble handling a full schedule even if he makes it back. Having two bench players capable of filling in for 3 infield spots when you have a second baseman at risk doesn't leave a lot of margin for injuries, illness or the like. Hope we hold onto Lin and can shelter him in the minors as he at least is a reasonable backup. Is he out of options?

 

I do think it might not be so easy to keep Pearce. It all depends on the budget and who else they sign. Holt, Nunez and Leon/Swihart are locks. Pearce is not as of now.

 

Lin has one option left...

[moonslav59]

I do think it might not be so easy to keep Pearce. It all depends on the budget and who else they sign. Holt, Nunez and Leon/Swihart are locks. Pearce is not as of now.

 

Lin has one option left...

 

I can't imagine Moreland playing FT or using Swihart or Holt as the platoon.

 

Chavis or JD at 1B might be aan in-house solution, but Pearce would be very nice.

[notin]

I can't imagine Moreland playing FT or using Swihart or Holt as the platoon.

 

Chavis or JD at 1B might be aan in-house solution, but Pearce would be very nice.

 

It all comes down to cash. Maybe the Sox will go cheap there and use Travis and eventually Chavis as his platoon partner

[Dojji]

The market at first base is buyer friendly. Pearce is about the best option out there for anyone looking for a first baseman in free agency. We are going to have some competition and Pearce is probably going to be able to name his price.

[Dojji]

That said, one outside the box solution might be to sign Yasmani Grandal and give him the Mike Napoli treatment. He's an adventure behind the plate but his bat is excellent. A good candidate for a move to 1B. And one imagines that he might be on board with the idea of coming to Boston and competing for championships after the last 2 frustrating seasons in LA

 

Another possibility -- sign Beltre to a short term deal and move Devers over to first base, let him fill out a bit more and develop his power in a less athletic position and see if he takes off like I think he might.

[moonslav59]

It all comes down to cash. Maybe the Sox will go cheap there and use Travis and eventually Chavis as his platoon partner

 

I may be wrong, but I am done with Travis.

[Dojji]

Travis had his chance to win a job in Boston and it didn't work for him which is why we have Pierce in the first place. He had every chance to make that transaction unnecessary.

 

Right now, Chavis and Ockimey are the guys on my radar.

[moonslav59]

I'm thinking something like this might work:

 

1) Sign Eovaldi to the least amount of years as possible.

2) Sign Kelly to the lowest AVV as possible.

3) Sign Pearce to 1-2 years.

4) Trade Johnson, Swihart and Sam Travis for a better 6th starter or nice set-up man.

 

We start the season with this:

 

SP: Sale, Price, Porcello, Eovaldi, ERod, Wright (AAA-Velazquez/Shawaryn/Cuevas/Shepherd)

 

RP: Barnes, Kelly, Brasier, Hembree, Workman, ________ (see trade above)

(AAA-Poyner, Thornburg, Scott, Maddox, Walden, Lakins, Feltman)

 

1. Betts RF

2. Beni LF

3. Bogey SS

4. JD Martinez DH

5. Pearce/Moreland 1B

6. Devers/(Chavis) 3B

7. JBJ CF

8. Nunez/Holt 2B (Pedey)

9. Vaz/Leon

 

Chavis or Pedey.

 

AAA-

C- Butler/Hernandez

1B- Ockimey

2B- Quiroz

3B- Hernandez (Chavis)

SS- Lin

LF- D Mars

CF- Matheny

RF- Castillo

DH- Witte

 

 

 

[cp176]

I may be wrong, but I am done with Travis.

 

I think that you are right. Sam has had plenty of chances and has not lived up to the hype.

Sign Eovaldi - 3 years with and option - 15 mil. max

try to keep Pearce

If Kelly is signed, do not in any way count on him to become your 9th inning man. regardless of how good he looked, during the series, his control is extremely unpredictable.

[moonslav59]

I think that you are right. Sam has had plenty of chances and has not lived up to the hype.

Sign Eovaldi - 3 years with and option - 15 mil. max

try to keep Pearce

If Kelly is signed, do not in any way count on him to become your 9th inning man. regardless of how good he looked, during the series, his control is extremely unpredictable.

 

My guess is Barnes is first in line as an in-house closer. Braiser may end up winning it.

[notin]

I may be wrong, but I am done with Travis.

 

There isn’t much to get excited about, but if the Sox need a dirt cheap RHH 1b, he does fit that description and is already here. At best, he is a stopgap to Chavis, who would have a better chance at opening day but missed a lot of time last year due to his suspension...

[notin]

I think that you are right. Sam has had plenty of chances and has not lived up to the hype.

Sign Eovaldi - 3 years with and option - 15 mil. max

try to keep Pearce

If Kelly is signed, do not in any way count on him to become your 9th inning man. regardless of how good he looked, during the series, his control is extremely unpredictable.

 

Barnes is an option, but I think DD probably prefers an experienced closer based on his past experience in building bad bullpens. He did go get Kimbrel before he had any semblance of a good starting rotation...

[cp176]

My guess is Barnes is first in line as an in-house closer. Braiser may end up winning it.

 

I think that both of those guys represent much better options than Kelly in that role.

[Bellhorn04]

Barnes is an option, but I think DD probably prefers an experienced closer based on his past experience in building bad bullpens. He did go get Kimbrel before he had any semblance of a good starting rotation...

 

But when he was negotiating the Kimbrel trade, he had already asked JH how much he could have to sign Price, and JH replied 'Whatever it takes.'

[notin]

I think that both of those guys represent much better options than Kelly in that role.

 

Barnes probably does, but Brasier could also be a flash in the pan. The Sox could and probably should give him lessser roles than closer in the Boston pen...

[notin]

But when he was negotiating the Kimbrel trade, he had already asked JH how much he could have to sign Price, and JH replied 'Whatever it takes.'

 

But he still focused on and targeted Kimbrel. He didn’t go and trade for, say, Francisco Rodriguez. He clearly valued the role of closer and wanted an elite pitcher in it. This is why I’d be surprised if Barnes, Kelly, or (especially) Brasier opens the season in the role.

 

Now DD has said publicly he might fill the role internally, specifically naming Barnes and Brasier as candidates. But this looks like a negotiating tactic. There’s no other reason to make that statement right now...

[Bellhorn04]

But he still focused on and targeted Kimbrel. He didn’t go and trade for, say, Francisco Rodriguez. He clearly valued the role of closer and wanted an elite pitcher in it. This is why I’d be surprised if Barnes, Kelly, or (especially) Brasier opens the season in the role.

 

Now DD has said publicly he might fill the role internally, specifically naming Barnes and Brasier as candidates. But this looks like a negotiating tactic. There’s no other reason to make that statement right now...

 

I agree. My guess would be he makes an early offer to Kimbrel, more like 4/70 than 5/100, and if that doesn't do it he'll look elsewhere.

 

He's certainly not thinking the 2018 bullpen minus Kimbrel and Kelly will be good enough.

[moonslav59]

But when he was negotiating the Kimbrel trade, he had already asked JH how much he could have to sign Price, and JH replied 'Whatever it takes.'

 

...and then the both of them prevented further signing.

 

[notin]

I agree. My guess would be he makes an early offer to Kimbrel, more like 4/70 than 5/100, and if that doesn't do it he'll look elsewhere.

 

He's certainly not thinking the 2018 bullpen minus Kimbrel and Kelly will be good enough.

 

I agree. I think Kimbrel moves on and DD either tries to sign a closer or trade for one.

 

And he doesn’t even consider Durbin Feltman an option for closer in 2019...

Edited November 7, 2018 by notin

[cp176]

...and then the both of them prevented further signing.

 

 

so - We shouldn't have signed Price and Kimbrel?

[moonslav59]

so - We shouldn't have signed Price and Kimbrel?

 

We didn't sign Kimbrel.

 

I was firmly against the trade that sent 4 prospects for a closer making free agent market money at the time of the trade.

 

I still think we could have done better, but I'm not complaining about the results.

 

I have no beef with mortgaging the future, if you get a ring.

[Bellhorn04]

We didn't sign Kimbrel.

 

I was firmly against the trade that sent 4 prospects for a closer making free agent market money at the time of the trade.

 

 

It was a very favorable contract, though, that can't be overlooked. If Kimbrel was a free agent that year, you certainly weren't getting him for guaranteed money of only $25 million. It just so happens there were no other closers on the free agent market that year so there are no simple comps. But we know what Chapman and Jansen got the following year.

[dgalehouse]

I agree. My guess would be he makes an early offer to Kimbrel, more like 4/70 than 5/100, and if that doesn't do it he'll look elsewhere.

 

He's certainly not thinking the 2018 bullpen minus Kimbrel and Kelly will be good enough.

Some fans are getting a little carried away. Need to be level headed and sensible here. Kimbrel has a career ERA of 1.90. Assuming he leaves , we need a quality replacement. In five years with the Sox , Barnes' ERA is 4.14 , and Kelly' s is 4.33. More than double the ERA of Kimbrel. Barnes and Kelly were much maligned through most of the season. Now , suddenly , they are the answer ? I think we need to look elsewhere for a more experienced closer with a better track record. Perhaps Britton or Familia. Then , if Barnes and Kelly ( assuming we sign him ) can be consistently effective, we can give them a shot.