ALDS rehash and ALCS assessment

[TylerD]

Sox over Stros all the way....

 

1. If I recall well, 4 weeks ago or so, we were over the Stros in RDiff. The thing is, while Cora had been giving up games plus no Sale & no E-Rod in September, Stros had been playing at full capacity.

 

2. Regarding SP, a healthy Sale is better than Verlader —pitch by pitch. Price is arguably one the best pitchers of the second half, and pitched better than Morton last time; in fact, Morton was kind of lucky —we hit him well. Also, we own Keuchel, remember last time? he was pounded and could be worse. He was lucky too. IMO he is overrated —LOB% and BABIP don’t lie through his career. You know what I think of Porcello, but I’d rather him over Dallas Keuchel any day of the week, and Porcello just pitched a gem against NY.

 

3. Regarding the BP, if you take out of the equation bums like Pomeranz, Thorn, Cuevas, etc. our BP match them pretty well —not to mention our closer is arguably the best in baseball.

 

4. Our offense in the top is better with 2 legit MVPs. Mookie- Benny- Pearce- JD-XB is a better nucleo. The bottom, while is a crap shot —if hot— is better as well Kinsler-Nuñez/Devers-JBJ. Also, we have a couple of great utility players in Holt and SWI who have shown that can hit in clutch situations.

 

5. Regarding Defense, our defense is the best of the majors if you don’t line up Devers. Kinsler at second is vintage Pedroia, and Leon catches very well our top 2 and calls the games like nobody else in the majors. Our CF and RF are gold gloves caliber players.

 

Also, we have the HFA.

 

Said that, I’ll say it again. We will win the WS. So... bring me the Astros or whoever, we are set to win it all.

 

God I hope you're right! Astros still scare me with that powerful offense they have. But I do agree, I think overall we win the pitching battle assuming Price can pitch decent and Porcello keeps doing what he is doing.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

I think having the home field advantage is huge, especially playing the first two games at home. I think we're better at home.

 

The Astros are better on the road. 57 wins away from home during regular season. That's ridiculously impressive.

[Hitch]

Sox over Stros all the way....

 

1. If I recall well, 4 weeks ago or so, we were over the Stros in RDiff. The thing is, while Cora had been giving up games plus no Sale & no E-Rod in September, Stros had been playing at full capacity.

 

2. Regarding SP, a healthy Sale is better than Verlader —pitch by pitch. Price is arguably one the best pitchers of the second half, and pitched better than Morton last time; in fact, Morton was kind of lucky —we hit him well. Also, we own Keuchel, remember last time? he was pounded and could be worse. He was lucky too. IMO he is overrated —LOB% and BABIP don’t lie through his career. You know what I think of Porcello, but I’d rather him over Dallas Keuchel any day of the week, and Porcello just pitched a gem against NY.

 

3. Regarding the BP, if you take out of the equation bums like Pomeranz, Thorn, Cuevas, etc. our BP match them pretty well —not to mention our closer is arguably the best in baseball.

 

4. Our offense in the top is better with 2 legit MVPs. Mookie- Benny- Pearce- JD-XB is a better nucleo. The bottom, while is a crap shot —if hot— is better as well Kinsler-Nuñez/Devers-JBJ. Also, we have a couple of great utility players in Holt and SWI who have shown that can hit in clutch situations.

 

5. Regarding Defense, our defense is the best of the majors if you don’t line up Devers. Kinsler at second is vintage Pedroia, and Leon catches very well our top 2 and calls the games like nobody else in the majors. Our CF and RF are gold gloves caliber players.

 

Also, we have the HFA.

 

Said that, I’ll say it again. We will win the WS. So... bring me the Astros or whoever, we are set to win it all.

 

I want to feel like this ha! I worry the Astro's are going to be too strong though. It seems weird to say about a team that we were better than, but their team just flat out scares me. Their offence is ridiculous and they are awesome on the road.

 

That said, we are no slouches ourselves. If Price turns up and pitches well it could be the difference maker.

[moonslav59]

The Astros are scary, but many of the players we think of as scary are having off years- not just a mini-slump, but off years.

 

Would we be pumped up if our best 3 hitters last year declined like this?

.941 Correo to .728

.957 Altuve to .837

.889 Springer to .780

 

Plus....

.817 Guriel to .751

.847 Reddick to .718

.815 Marisnik to .674

.907 Gonzalez to .733

 

This looks like the Sox from 2016 to 2017. It's their turn to be jinxed.

 

 

 

Granted, Bregman has given them a big boost

[Slasher9]

And if he refuses to retire, will he be considered gritty for gutting it out rather than a team player?

 

nah. he will just be typical. the mets made a big to do about david wright "playing in his last game" a few weeks ago. yet he is still accepting his contract $$ the next couple years. the player that retires and foregoes his salary is 1 in a million. we already had that 1 a few years ago.....

[iortiz]

God I hope you're right! Astros still scare me with that powerful offense they have. But I do agree, I think overall we win the pitching battle assuming Price can pitch decent and Porcello keeps doing what he is doing.

 

I want to feel like this ha! I worry the Astro's are going to be too strong though. It seems weird to say about a team that we were better than, but their team just flat out scares me. Their offence is ridiculous and they are awesome on the road.

 

That said, we are no slouches ourselves. If Price turns up and pitches well it could be the difference maker.

It's called the anxiety of a fan LOL!

 

Yeah, the Stros is a very good team, but I like ours more —beyond my fandom.

 

Fans usually see the strengths of the rival and the weakness of their team, mostly when the rival is very good one like the Stros. I've been there with the Sox in recent years, but this year is different. Beyond stats, I can see several intangibles who play in our favor.

 

In the end anything can happen, but I really like our chances. Time will tell though.

[iortiz]

The Astros are scary, but many of the players we think of as scary are having off years- not just a mini-slump, but off years.

 

Would we be pumped up if our best 3 hitters last year declined like this?

.941 Correo to .728

.957 Altuve to .837

.889 Springer to .780

 

Plus....

.817 Guriel to .751

.847 Reddick to .718

.815 Marisnik to .674

.907 Gonzalez to .733

 

This looks like the Sox from 2016 to 2017. It's their turn to be jinxed.

 

 

 

Granted, Bregman has given them a big boost

 

Yeah, I don't think this Stros —which is still a very good team— are 2017 Stros.

[BillyWilliams]

Sox over Stros all the way....

 

1. If I recall well, 4 weeks ago or so, we were over the Stros in RDiff. The thing is, while Cora had been giving up games plus no Sale & no E-Rod in September, Stros had been playing at full capacity.

 

2. Regarding SP, a healthy Sale is better than Verlader —pitch by pitch. Price is arguably one the best pitchers of the second half, and pitched better than Cole last time; in fact, Cole was kind of lucky —we hit him well. Also, we own Keuchel, remember last time? he was pounded and could be worse. He was lucky too. IMO he is overrated —LOB% and BABIP don’t lie through his career. You know what I think of Porcello, but I’d rather him over Dallas Keuchel any day of the week, and Porcello just pitched a gem against NY.

 

3. Regarding the BP, if you take out of the equation bums like Pomeranz, Thorn, Cuevas, etc. our BP match them pretty well —not to mention our closer is arguably the best in baseball.

 

4. Our offense in the top is better with 2 legit MVPs. Mookie- Benny- Pearce- JD-XB is a better nucleo. The bottom, while is a crap shot —if hot— is better as well Kinsler-Nuñez/Devers-JBJ. Also, we have a couple of great utility players in Holt and SWI who have shown that can hit in clutch situations.

 

5. Regarding Defense, our defense is the best of the majors if you don’t line up Devers. Kinsler at second is vintage Pedroia, and Leon catches very well our top 2 and calls the games like nobody else in the majors. Our CF and RF are gold gloves caliber players.

 

Also, we have the HFA.

 

Said that, I’ll say it again. We will win the WS. So... bring me the Astros or whoever, we are set to win it all.

 

Geez, when you look at it that way there's no reason the sox shouldn't sweep............

[d-money]

We need to win the World Series! I want more! We lost to this same team last year. I want revenge. We need sale and everybody else to come through. They’re not unbeatable. I feel we can hit Verlander.

[jung]

Sox over Stros all the way....

 

1. If I recall well, 4 weeks ago or so, we were over the Stros in RDiff. The thing is, while Cora had been giving up games plus no Sale & no E-Rod in September, Stros had been playing at full capacity.

 

2. Regarding SP, a healthy Sale is better than Verlader —pitch by pitch. Price is arguably one the best pitchers of the second half, and pitched better than Cole last time; in fact, Cole was kind of lucky —we hit him well. Also, we own Keuchel, remember last time? he was pounded and could be worse. He was lucky too. IMO he is overrated —LOB% and BABIP don’t lie through his career. You know what I think of Porcello, but I’d rather him over Dallas Keuchel any day of the week, and Porcello just pitched a gem against NY.

 

3. Regarding the BP, if you take out of the equation bums like Pomeranz, Thorn, Cuevas, etc. our BP match them pretty well —not to mention our closer is arguably the best in baseball.

 

4. Our offense in the top is better with 2 legit MVPs. Mookie- Benny- Pearce- JD-XB is a better nucleo. The bottom, while is a crap shot —if hot— is better as well Kinsler-Nuñez/Devers-JBJ. Also, we have a couple of great utility players in Holt and SWI who have shown that can hit in clutch situations.

 

5. Regarding Defense, our defense is the best of the majors if you don’t line up Devers. Kinsler at second is vintage Pedroia, and Leon catches very well our top 2 and calls the games like nobody else in the majors. Our CF and RF are gold gloves caliber players.

 

Also, we have the HFA.

 

Said that, I’ll say it again. We will win the WS. So... bring me the Astros or whoever, we are set to win it all.

 

I think were the Astros are overrated is in their offense at least this year. They have guys that are simply not getting it done as a 1-9. But to suggest that our pitching is the equal of the Astros pitching is frankly trying to shoehorn hope against reality. The only argument that works is Sale might be the best of all of the starters in this series. Beyond that its all Astros with us "hoping" our guys provide career post season performances. You can't rate guys on hope. Hope is hope. Other than Sale if their starters are confident and execute their plans and our starters are confident and execute their plans, their starters are better than ours and that is the only way you can rate pitching.

 

As for the bullpens, they are not even close. The Astros pen is much better than ours. In this series, the better pen is likely more of a factor in at least more games than the pens were in the Yankee series. We negated the pen advantage in the Yankee series because the Yankees never had a lead enough of the time to make their pen advantage meaningful. This is 7 games instead of 5 and its against a much more mature team than the Yankees. So while I am not willing to say the pen advantage the Astros have will be "the element" that swings the series toward the Astros, the Astros are a much more well rounded offense than the 2018 Yankees ever had any chance of being even with some Astros underperforming to expectation.

 

The one aspect of the ALCS that this might come down to is we have the extra home game here. This is going to be a heck of a series whereas the Astros would have just blown the Yankees right off the map. The equalizer might well be that we get the last game here and the two teams might just be close enough to each other that the home field advantage is the edge that pulls us through. I actually expect a 7 game series which puts the last game here. Plus assuming Cora does plan Sale for game 5, we have a big chance at game 5 which can be critical in a 7 game series.

 

The Yankees were much overrated as a 2018 post season team. Too many young guys just trying to figure out how to get through 162. It has become alarmingly popular to rate all young guys like they are budding Mike Trouts or seasoned professionals and it just does not happen that way. Look at our own experience. Is Devers ahead of schedule? Nope. Is Beni ahead of schedule? Nope. We have one guy that fits the Trout mold, Mookie Betts and Mookie is the only guy that has beaten the odds no matter how many guys we have pushed up to Boston ahead of schedule in the last decade.

 

On top of that too many fans are home run happy and simply put too much weight on home run hitting. Whoopdie dingdong.

 

When it came right down to it the Yankee team could not manufacture a run if they had a bloated Federal Government contract to manufacture them. All they could do is bomb away. Good luck winning post season series that way.

Edited October 10, 2018 by jung

[Maxbialystock]

Love iortiz's enthusiasm for the ALCS.

 

But I'd like to go back to last night for a moment and without starting a new thread.

 

That rally was almost entirely Kimbrel's creation: he gave up 2 BB's, 1 HBP, and a single to score the Yankees 1st run. With the bases loaded and 1 out, he got the catcher to fly out deep to LF, making the score 4-3 with men on 1st and 2d and 2 outs.

 

Then Torres hit that weak grounder, which Nunez swept in to field cleanly and throw quickly to 1B. About the time the ball arrived the Yankees had one guy around 3b and the other at 2B. If that throw at that angle gets past Pearce to his right, it ends up in RF and there's a good chance the Yankees with the game 5-4.

 

Of course, I think it would have been a travesty if that had happened, but it almost did, which would have meant game 5 after today off.

 

I say travesty because there is no doubt in my mind that the better team won.

[notin]

We need to win the World Series! I want more! We lost to this same team last year. I want revenge. We need sale and everybody else to come through. They’re not unbeatable. I feel we can hit Verlander.

 

Nobody wants revenge more than JD Martinez. This is the team that released him...

[iortiz]

I think were the Astros are overrated is in their offense at least this year. They have guys that are simply not getting it done as a 1-9. But to suggest that our pitching is the equal of the Astros pitching is frankly trying to shoehorn hope against reality. The only argument that works is Sale might be the best of all of the starters in this series. Beyond that its all Astros with us "hoping" our guys provide career post season performances. You can't rate guys on hope. Hope is hope. Other than Sale if their starters are confident and execute their plans and our starters are confident and execute their plans, their starters are better than ours and that is the only way you can rate pitching.

 

As for the bullpens, they are not even close. The Astros pen is much better than ours. In this series, the better pen is likely more of a factor in at least more games than the pens were in the Yankee series. We negated the pen advantage in the Yankee series because the Yankees never had a lead enough of the time to make their pen advantage meaningful. This is 7 games instead of 5 and its against a much more mature team than the Yankees. So while I am not willing to say the pen advantage the Astros have will be "the element" that swings the series toward the Astros, the Astros are a much more well rounded offense than the 2018 Yankees ever had any chance of being even with some Astros underperforming to expectation.

 

The one aspect of the ALCS that this might come down to is we have the extra home game here. This is going to be a heck of a series whereas the Astros would have just blown the Yankees right off the map. The equalizer might well be that we get the last game here and the two teams might just be close enough to each other that the home field advantage is the edge that pulls us through. I actually expect a 7 game series which puts the last game here. Plus assuming Cora does plan Sale for game 5, we have a big chance at game 5 which can be critical in a 7 game series.

 

The Yankees were much overrated as a 2018 post season team. Too many young guys just trying to figure out how to get through 162. It has become alarmingly popular to rate all young guys like they are budding Mike Trouts or seasoned professionals and it just does not happen that way. Look at our own experience. Is Devers ahead of schedule? Nope. Is Beni ahead of schedule? Nope. We have one guy that fits the Trout mold, Mookie Betts and Mookie is the only guy that has beaten the odds no matter how many guys we have pushed up to Boston ahead of schedule in the last decade.

 

When it came right down to it the Yankee team could not manufacture a run if they had a bloated Federal Government contract to manufacture them. All they could do is bomb away. Good luck winning post season series that way.

 

I disagree with you a bit jung. I’m not rating guys on hope LOL!

 

Did Price pitch a gem against them last time? Yes.

Did we do damage against Cole, Kauchel and Morton last time? Yes.

Did we do damage against their “incredible” pen last time —remember what happened with Osuna in the 3rd game the series? Yes.

A Kimbrel-Braiser-Barnes-E-Rod combo can’t match their pen? I say yes.

Can our offense destroy their pen? you betcha.

 

Not to mention we played without Betts in Houston and without Sale in Boston. We are going to play at full capacity this time and on winning mode. I want to see that.

 

Said that, we can assess and throw & split numbers all we want. In the end the series has to be played and anything can happen, that’s for sure.

Edited October 10, 2018 by iortiz

[jung]

I disagree with you a bit jung. I’m not rating guys on hope LOL!

 

Did Price pitch a gem against them last time? Yes.

Did we do damage against Cole, Kauchel and Morton last time? Yes.

Did we do damage against their “incredible” pen last time —remember what happened with Osuna in the 3rd game the series? Yes.

A Kimbrel-Braiser-Barnes-E-Rod combo can’t match their pen? I say yes.

Can our offense destroy their pen? you betcha.

 

Not to mention we played without Betts in Houston and without Sale in Boston. We are going to play at full capacity this time and in winning mode. I want to see that.

 

Said that, we can assess and throw & split numbers all we want. In the end the series has to be played and anything can happen, that’s for sure.

 

So you are rating the pitching on anecdotal data which is frankly another form of hope...its looking for the bright spots that let you get you to where you want to go. Their pitching is better than our pitching. We might win this series. We have Sale and home field with Sale going in games 1 and 5 if Cora plays this right and that could be enough. But as a staff, their pitching is better than our pitching. It would also be mighty helpful if the guys in their lineup that have been asleep stay asleep. But I would not count on that.

 

Price in game 2 is already a mistake to me and we can't afford many mistakes. Put Price in the warm comfy confines of an indoor park in October IMO. If we get a really nice October night here, might be fine. If we get a nasty night here, might not be the best place for Price.

Edited October 10, 2018 by jung

[iortiz]

Love iortiz's enthusiasm for the ALCS.

 

But I'd like to go back to last night for a moment and without starting a new thread.

 

That rally was almost entirely Kimbrel's creation: he gave up 2 BB's, 1 HBP, and a single to score the Yankees 1st run. With the bases loaded and 1 out, he got the catcher to fly out deep to LF, making the score 4-3 with men on 1st and 2d and 2 outs.

 

Then Torres hit that weak grounder, which Nunez swept in to field cleanly and throw quickly to 1B. About the time the ball arrived the Yankees had one guy around 3b and the other at 2B. If that throw at that angle gets past Pearce to his right, it ends up in RF and there's a good chance the Yankees with the game 5-4.

 

Of course, I think it would have been a travesty if that had happened, but it almost did, which would have meant game 5 after today off.

 

I say travesty because there is no doubt in my mind that the better team won.

 

My guess is Kimbrel had fresh Judge’s dinger at Fenway in his mind. The rest was the concecunce of that.

 

He had a 3 Rs lead for Gods sake. He just had to throw strikes, and outs would have come naturally, but he didn’t. The atmosphere at Yankee Stadium almost eat him alive.

 

Said that, I really doubt, it will happen again.

[iortiz]

So you are rating the pitching on anecdotal data which is frankly another form of hope...its looking for the bright spots that let you get you to where you want to go. Their pitching is better than our pitching. We might win this series. We have Sale and home field with Sale going in games 1 and 5 if Cora plays this right and that could be enough. But as a staff, their pitching is better than our pitching. It would also be mighty helpful if the guys in their lineup that have been asleep stay asleep. But I would not count on that.

 

Price in game 2 is already a mistake to me and we can't afford many mistakes. Put Price in the warm comfy confines of an indoor park in October IMO. If we get a really nice October night here, might be fine. If we get a nasty night here, might not be the best place for Price.

 

 

It’s not an anecdota jung LOL! It’s a plain fact based on the series we played against them in the season.

 

Geeez It’s crazy how some players perform very well against some teams and very bad against others.

 

After watching Porcello against NY all season long, you could say he’s an ace... but when you see his numbers of the season or more pricesly vs Toronto, he’s a totally different pitcher.

 

The same happens with Price. He just can’t pitch against NY, he just can’t... but when you see him pitch the other day vs Astros or in most of the games in the second half of the season, you could fairly say, he earned his pay check —at least in those months.

[Maxbialystock]

I disagree with you a bit jung. I’m not rating guys on hope LOL!

 

Did Price pitch a gem against them last time? Yes.

Did we do damage against Cole, Kauchel and Morton last time? Yes.

Did we do damage against their “incredible” pen last time —remember what happened with Osuna in the 3rd game the series? Yes.

A Kimbrel-Braiser-Barnes-E-Rod combo can’t match their pen? I say yes.

Can our offense destroy their pen? you betcha.

 

Not to mention we played without Betts in Houston and without Sale in Boston. We are going to play at full capacity this time and in winning mode. I want to see that.

 

Said that, we can assess and throw & split numbers all we want. In the end the series has to be played and anything can happen, that’s for sure.

 

That's a pretty important (and sensible) cautionary note at the end. That's where I start from, but the ALDS has persuaded me not to under value our own team. We had 3 of 4 solid starts vs. the full-up and hot Yankees lineup, and two of them were in their bandbox. That's a rotation.

 

Almost as impressive was knocking out both Happ and Severino. Less impressive was not scoring after the 3d inning in game 1 and not after the 4th last night--on top of only scoring 2 in game 2. I am hopeful the bottom 4 of our lineup will be OK and would like to see more of Holt. I suspect that Leon, however, will catch at least one game, Sale's, and maybe two, also Price's. Yes, horrible at bats, but Sale pitching well is worth almost any hole in the lineup.

 

I don't think our defense is all that great, but boy it looked pretty darn good in the ALDS. That one bad throw by Nunez followed by another that actually got an out thanks to Kinsler. Nothing all that spectacular in the outfield except that incredible throw by Betts, I think in game 1, that darn near got a Yankee tagging up after a fly out down the right field line (foul?). Wow. Kinsler also made a nifty stop of a hot liner/grounder to his left that was not luck.

 

And the bullpen was OK, considering. The Yankees bullpen was better, but the Sox were always able to keep whatever lead they got off three Yankee starters.

[iortiz]

That's a pretty important (and sensible) cautionary note at the end. That's where I start from, but the ALDS has persuaded me not to under value our own team. We had 3 of 4 solid starts vs. the full-up and hot Yankees lineup, and two of them were in their bandbox. That's a rotation.

 

Almost as impressive was knocking out both Happ and Severino. Less impressive was not scoring after the 3d inning in game 1 and not after the 4th last night--on top of only scoring 2 in game 2. I am hopeful the bottom 4 of our lineup will be OK and would like to see more of Holt. I suspect that Leon, however, will catch at least one game, Sale's, and maybe two, also Price's. Yes, horrible at bats, but Sale pitching well is worth almost any hole in the lineup.

 

I don't think our defense is all that great, but boy it looked pretty darn good in the ALDS. That one bad throw by Nunez followed by another that actually got an out thanks to Kinsler. Nothing all that spectacular in the outfield except that incredible throw by Betts, I think in game 1, that darn near got a Yankee tagging up after a fly out down the right field line (foul?). Wow. Kinsler also made a nifty stop of a hot liner/grounder to his left that was not luck.

 

And the bullpen was OK, considering. The Yankees bullpen was better, but the Sox were always able to keep whatever lead they got off three Yankee starters.

 

Yeah, and if you ask me, NY’s BP is better than HOU’s on paper.

 

It’s going to be fun, that’s for sure.

[iortiz]

Geez, when you look at it that way there's no reason the sox shouldn't sweep............

 

We shouldn’t be surprised LOL!

[Kimmi]

Fred, the financial shackles will come off. We will be adding top notch veteran talent to this squad. Enjoy the edge while it lasts

 

The financial shackles will come off, but that doesn't mean that the Yankees will have any kind of edge next year.

 

Don't sell the Good Guys short.

[Kimmi]

Back to back to back to back

 

My man.

[Bellhorn04]

Back to back to back to back

 

This expression doesn't really make any sense when you think about it LOL

[Kimmi]

I want to feel like this ha! I worry the Astro's are going to be too strong though. It seems weird to say about a team that we were better than, but their team just flat out scares me. Their offence is ridiculous and they are awesome on the road.

 

That said, we are no slouches ourselves. If Price turns up and pitches well it could be the difference maker.

 

I can't go as far as saying we will win it all, but I like our chances as much as anyone else's. There are always those 'crap shoot' and 'randomness' factors to consider, but we are a very, very good team.

 

And I believe that Price will pitch well in this series.

[notin]

This expression doesn't really make any sense when you think about it LOL

 

That’s why we make up words like “threepeat” and “quadropoly”.

 

Ok I made that last one up...

[mvp 78]

This expression doesn't really make any sense when you think about it LOL

 

back to back to back to back

[jung]

All the familiarity of the NYY against Kimbrel really limits his effectiveness. I think he'll be better against the Stros.

 

He won't be if he is throwing it all over the lot and that is his real problem...throwing it all over the lot and setting himself up for throwing a FB when everybody in the building knows he is going to throw a FB. Though Kimbrel likes to think he can just throw it past hitters, he can't, certainly not when the hitter with talent is absolutely convinced he is going to throw it.

[mvp 78]

He won't be if he is throwing it all over the lot and that is his real problem...throwing it all over the lot and setting himself up for throwing a FB when everybody in the building knows he is going to throw a FB. Though Kimbrel likes to think he can just throw it past hitters, he can't, certainly not when the hitter with talent is absolutely convinced he is going to throw it.

 

It doesn't sound like you actually watch him pitch. That knucklecurve is his binky.

 

I think you are confusing Kimbrel with Joe Kelly.

[jung]

It’s not an anecdota jung LOL! It’s a plain fact based on the series we played against them in the season.

 

Geeez It’s crazy how some players perform very well against some teams and very bad against others.

 

After watching Porcello against NY all season long, you could say he’s an ace... but when you see his numbers of the season or more pricesly vs Toronto, he’s a totally different pitcher.

 

The same happens with Price. He just can’t pitch against NY, he just can’t... but when you see him pitch the other day vs Astros or in most of the games in the second half of the season, you could fairly say, he earned his pay check —at least in those months.

 

Which ignores their pitching stats for the anecdotal data of a game result. AGAIN, the only way to rate pitching is to consider it under conditions of confidence in their plans which goes directly to their execution. If the Astros starters are confident in their plans and pitch like it and our starters are confident in their plans and pitch like it, their starters are better than ours with the possible exception of Sale, health dependent. Their pen is better than ours. There is simply no way to call our pitching outside of Sale better than theirs.

 

Not one single Yankee starter pitched confidently in the most recent series, not one. Tanaka didn't either as he was throwing garbage 0-0 in order to get to two strikes where he generally guts hitters. But his 0-0 pitches were woeful. We just didn't do anything with them. We didn't even swing at them with the exception of a HR and single off 0-0 and a single off of 1-0. The hits we got off Tanaka never came past two pitches into an AB. That was it. When Tanaka is on, he throws far better pitches 0-0 and early in counts than he was throwing the night he pitched.

 

Every other Yankee starter also pitched without confidence and therefore without conviction. But you can't depend on that and you certainly can't rate pitching on that. You can't rate pitching any other way than assuming pitching with confidence and conviction because you can't assume that a pitcher is going to shrivel to nothing unless you have glaring exceptions and real data to support that contention which happens to describe David Price in Yankee Stadium.

 

Price can't pitch in Yankee stadium because he pitches thigh high on the outer black now in this iteration of Price...DEATH for LH pitchers pitching in Yankee Stadium. That is clearly the issue for him in that park. Its the Manager's job to put his pitchers in the best position to be confident and throw with conviction. I would actually never let David Price pitch in a big game in Yankee Stadium again because it is the worst place for him to pitch and I seriously doubt Price has another rebirth left in him at his age. He will IMO NEVER pitch with confidence and conviction in that park again. But that is based on the anomaly of a ridiculous RF in Yankee Stadium, a Yankee team designed to take advantage of it and a pitcher that now pitches excessively to the outer black and thigh high to RH hitters, an anomaly that is as clear as the nose on Cora's face. Its so much in Price's head now that he might now be shriveling to nothing whenever he sees pinstripes or an NY on a jersey.

 

There is no such data point or fact set that obviously biased toward a conclusion or a glaring anomaly for any Houston pitcher I can think of nor any Boston pitcher I can think of. That forces you back to rating them based on all of them pitching with confidence and conviction to their plans. Outside of Sale, under those conditions, Houston has better starting pitching than ours and their pen is better on balance.

 

If I had to guess this series is going 7 and our advantage, our actual advantage based on real information that effects outcomes in a short series is that we will have Sale going in Games 1 and 5, the most critical games of any 7 game series outside of game 7 AND game 7 is here! We have home field. That might just be enough to pull us through this series with the Astros. But suggesting that we are going to pull through it because our pitching is BETTER than theirs, outside of Sale is just cockeyed.

Edited October 11, 2018 by jung

[Hitch]

I can't go as far as saying we will win it all, but I like our chances as much as anyone else's. There are always those 'crap shoot' and 'randomness' factors to consider, but we are a very, very good team.

 

And I believe that Price will pitch well in this series.

 

Yeah it's very much anyone's at this point. I just think the Astros are the strongest of the 4 teams left. It's going to be such a great series.

 

I believe the win will happen if Price pitches like you think, but I don't have your faith ha!

[moonslav59]

Which ignores their pitching stats for the anecdotal data of a game result. AGAIN, the only way to rate pitching is to consider it under conditions of confidence in their plans which goes directly to their execution. If the Astros starters are confident in their plans and pitch like it and our starters are confident in their plans and pitch like it, their starters are better than ours with the possible exception of Sale, health dependent. Their pen is better than ours. There is simply no way to call our pitching outside of Sale better than theirs.

 

Not one single Yankee starter pitched confidently in the most recent series, not one. Tanaka didn't either as he was throwing garbage 0-0 in order to get to two strikes where he generally guts hitters. But his 0-0 pitches were woeful. We just didn't do anything with them. We didn't even swing at them with the exception of a HR and single off 0-0 and a single off of 1-0. The hits we got off Tanaka never came past two pitches into an AB. That was it. When Tanaka is on, he throws far better pitches 0-0 and early in counts than he was throwing the night he pitched.

 

Every other Yankee starter also pitched without confidence and therefore without conviction. But you can't depend on that and you certainly can't rate pitching on that. You can't rate pitching any other way than assuming pitching with confidence and conviction because you can't assume that a pitcher is going to shrivel to nothing unless you have glaring exceptions and real data to support that contention which happens to describe David Price in Yankee Stadium.

 

Price can't pitch in Yankee stadium because he pitches thigh high on the outer black now in this iteration of Price...DEATH for LH pitchers pitching in Yankee Stadium. That is clearly the issue for him in that park. Its the Manager's job to put his pitchers in the best position to be confident and throw with conviction. I would actually never let David Price pitch in a big game in Yankee Stadium again because it is the worst place for him to pitch and I seriously doubt Price has another rebirth left in him at his age. He will IMO NEVER pitch with confidence and conviction in that park again. But that is based on the anomaly of a ridiculous RF in Yankee Stadium, a Yankee team designed to take advantage of it and a pitcher that now pitches excessively to the outer black and thigh high to RH hitters, an anomaly that is as clear as the nose on Cora's face. Its so much in Price's head now that he might now be shriveling to nothing whenever he sees pinstripes or an NY on a jersey.

 

There is no such data point or fact set that obviously biased toward a conclusion or a glaring anomaly for any Houston pitcher I can think of nor any Boston pitcher I can think of. That forces you back to rating them based on all of them pitching with confidence and conviction to their plans. Outside of Sale, under those conditions, Houston has better starting pitching than ours and their pen is better on balance.

 

If I had to guess this series is going 7 and our advantage, our actual advantage based on real information that effects outcomes in a short series is that we will have Sale going in Games 1 and 5, the most critical games of any 7 game series outside of game 7 AND game 7 is here! We have home field. That might just be enough to pull us through this series with the Astros. But suggesting that we are going to pull through it because our pitching is BETTER than theirs, outside of Sale is just cockeyed.

 

We might see Sale out of the pen in a game 7. That could be a deciding factor.

 

I like your post.