Playoff Roster - 2018

[jacksonianmarch]

Nunez plays a really, really good 3b. Devers clearly has more offensive potential.

[moonslav59]

To me, it seems that Devers tends to get overly anxious in big moments, not that I'm calling for him to be benched. I'm okay with Devers starting against a right hander and being replaced for defensive purposes late in the game.

 

He probably had the biggest hit in the biggest moment of 2017 when he homered off Chapman.

[moonslav59]

Nunez plays a really, really good 3b. Devers clearly has more offensive potential.

 

Nunez has looked good at 3B this year but not over his career.

[oldtimer]

YES!

 

Kimbrel vs no Kimbrel?

 

Replace Pom with Wright/Johnson/Velazquez or go outside the system?

 

How to rebuild the pen?

 

Is Moreland our starter in 2019? (Devers to 1B? Chavis, Ockimey or Dalbec?)

 

2B? Pedey/Nunez/Holt/Hernandez/Quiro/Lin or someone else?

 

3B? Devers again? Platoon with Nunez?

 

Of course, another trade JBJ thread.

 

More urgent talk about 2020 (Bogey, Sale...)

 

 

A lot will be determined based on the available budget, assuming we want to stay under the luxury tax limit.

 

Our younger core players of Betts, Bogaerts, JBJ, Beni and Devers will come in between $30-$33 Mil

Our older players of JDM, Pedey, Moreland, Nunez, Holt, Vaz and Leon will add roughly $59 mil

Our starters of Price, Porcello, Sale, E-Rod and Wright plus possibly Eovaldi woule add close to $76 mil

Add $2 mil for young players like Swihart, Lin, Chavis and Dalbec

And add another $10 mil minimum for RPs

Account for a Panda overhang of $19 mil

 

It adds up to $200 mil without accounting for benefits.

 

Not a lot of money to sign an expensive closer, even if we extend beyond the luxury tax limit again.

 

Not so easy a course ahead in 2019. I didn't include Pom, Kinsler, Pearce in the list and don't expect we can sign Kimbrel. Pedey's contract for a limited number of games stands out. Moreland might be replaced to save money. Lots to talk about and 2020 becomes more difficult.

[moonslav59]

A lot will be determined based on the available budget, assuming we want to stay under the luxury tax limit.

 

Our younger core players of Betts, Bogaerts, JBJ, Beni and Devers will come in between $30-$33 Mil

Our older players of JDM, Pedey, Moreland, Nunez, Holt, Vaz and Leon will add roughly $59 mil

Our starters of Price, Porcello, Sale, E-Rod and Wright plus possibly Eovaldi woule add close to $76 mil

Add $2 mil for young players like Swihart, Lin, Chavis and Dalbec

And add another $10 mil minimum for RPs

Account for a Panda overhang of $19 mil

 

It adds up to $200 mil without accounting for benefits.

 

Not a lot of money to sign an expensive closer, even if we extend beyond the luxury tax limit again.

 

Not so easy a course ahead in 2019. I didn't include Pom, Kinsler, Pearce in the list and don't expect we can sign Kimbrel. Pedey's contract for a limited number of games stands out. Moreland might be replaced to save money. Lots to talk about and 2020 becomes more difficult.

 

I got us at about $206M counting player benefits, arbs and no free agent signings or re-signing (also no Thornburg/Smith). The threshold is $206M, so we'll have nothing to spend, if we want to reset next year, unless we trade salary.

 

Details here:

 

(in Luxury Tax Dollars)

$31.0M Price

$22.0M Martinez

$20.6M Porcello

$18.5M Sandoval

$15.1M Pedroia (corrected)

$15M Sale

$6.5M Moreland

$5.0M Nunez

$4.5M Vazquez

(138M Sub Total)

 

Arb Estimates

$18M Betts (2 of 3 arbs)

$12M Bogaerts (3/4)

$9M Bradley (3/4)

$6M Rodriguez (2/4)

$4M Holt (3/3)

$2.5M Wright (2/3)

$2.5M Leon (3/4)

$1.5M Barnes (1/3)

$1.0M Hembree (1/3)

$1.0M Swihart (1/4)

($58M Sub Total)

 

$196M Total for 17 Roster Slots

 

Bubble/Non Tender Arbs?

$2.5M Thornburg (3/3)

$1.0M C Smith (2/3)

 

$10.5M twenty-three players on 40 man roster

 

$14.5M player benefits

 

$221M Total (Corrected)

 

2019 CB Tax Threshold: $206M

 

If we want to straddle the $40M line again, we might have $25M to spend and these major holes to plug:

 

1. Closer

2. Set Up man

3. Set Up man

4. 2B and/or 3B

5. Possible: C, RP, SP, 4th OF

 

Edited September 28, 2018 by moonslav59

[SoxnCycles]

Yes, I said "crucial error," and certainly Nunez or Holt have a significantly less chance of that, but even then...

 

Devers 23 errors in 298 chances

 

Nunez 7 errors in 101 chances

 

The difference is not so great, when you even up the innings.

 

The chances Devers make one more error than Nunez over 5 games is probably less than 50-50.

 

 

Can I ask where you are getting your numbers?

The Sox fielding stat page has them both at 321 Total Chances.

 

Or are you discounting Nunez's play at other positions?

Seems silly, if one is evaluating a players skill.

Edited September 28, 2018 by SoxnCycles

[notin]

I got us at about $206M counting player benefits, arbs and no free agent signings or re-signing (also no Thornburg/Smith). The threshold is $206M, so we'll have nothing to spend, if we want to reset next year, unless we trade salary.

 

Details here:

 

(in Luxury Tax Dollars)

$31.0M Price

$22.0M Martinez

$20.6M Porcello

$18.5M Sandoval

$15M Sale

$6.5M Moreland

$5.0M Nunez

$4.5M Vazquez

($123M Sub Total)

 

Arb Estimates

$18M Betts (2 of 3 arbs)

$12M Bogaerts (3/4)

$9M Bradley (3/4)

$6M Rodriguez (2/4)

$4M Holt (3/3)

$2.5M Wright (2/3)

$2.5M Leon (3/4)

$1.5M Barnes (1/3)

$1.0M Hembree (1/3)

$1.0M Swihart (1/4)

($58M Sub Total)

 

$181M Total for 17 Roster Slots

 

Bubble/Non Tender Arbs?

$2.5M Thornburg (3/3)

$1.0M C Smith (2/3)

 

$10.5M twenty-three players on 40 man roster

 

$14.5M player benefits

 

$206M Total

 

2019 CB Tax Threshold: $206M

 

If we want to straddle the $40M line again, we might have $40M to spend and these major holes to plug:

 

1. Closer

2. Set Up man

3. Set Up man

4. 2B and/or 3B

5. Possible: C, RP, SP, 4th OF

 

 

1. $10.5mill to players not on the 40-man roster? Do they now count against the luxury tax? Castillo makes more than that amount on his own.

 

2. I'd be surprised if Smith got arnitration at all. Thornburg is an interesting case that I could see go eiither way. But if set up man is on the wish list, he might be a cheaper alternative than free agency.

 

3. On the "major holes" list, really, it's just closer and some possible bench stuff, but most of those holes might be with the team already.

 

Also, as much as I don't like it, if the Sox have to move a player making some cash, Bradley is the most likely candidate...

[Bellhorn04]

1. $10.5mill to players not on the 40-man roster? Do they now count against the luxury tax? If so, I can think of two players (Castillo, sandoval) who make more than that amount on their own.

 

It's $10.5mill to players ON the 40-man roster. Don't you be going Mister Magoo on us...

[notin]

It's $10.5mill to players ON the 40-man roster. Don't you be going Mister Magoo on us...

 

 

I'm still in Magoo Mode. Where is Pedroia (who makes $15mill mext year) on this list?

[Bellhorn04]

I'm still in Magoo Mode. Where is Pedroia (who makes $15mill mext year) on this list?

 

You're right, Pedroia got Magoo'd. His tax cost is 13.75 mill.

[oldtimer]

I got us at about $206M counting player benefits, arbs and no free agent signings or re-signing (also no Thornburg/Smith). The threshold is $206M, so we'll have nothing to spend, if we want to reset next year, unless we trade salary.

 

Details here:

 

(in Luxury Tax Dollars)

$31.0M Price

$22.0M Martinez

$20.6M Porcello

$18.5M Sandoval

$15M Sale

$6.5M Moreland

$5.0M Nunez

$4.5M Vazquez

($123M Sub Total)

 

Arb Estimates

$18M Betts (2 of 3 arbs)

$12M Bogaerts (3/4)

$9M Bradley (3/4)

$6M Rodriguez (2/4)

$4M Holt (3/3)

$2.5M Wright (2/3)

$2.5M Leon (3/4)

$1.5M Barnes (1/3)

$1.0M Hembree (1/3)

$1.0M Swihart (1/4)

($58M Sub Total)

 

$181M Total for 17 Roster Slots

 

Bubble/Non Tender Arbs?

$2.5M Thornburg (3/3)

$1.0M C Smith (2/3)

 

$10.5M twenty-three players on 40 man roster

 

$14.5M player benefits

 

$206M Total

 

2019 CB Tax Threshold: $206M

 

If we want to straddle the $40M line again, we might have $40M to spend and these major holes to plug:

 

1. Closer

2. Set Up man

3. Set Up man

4. 2B and/or 3B

5. Possible: C, RP, SP, 4th OF

 

 

I don't see Pedey and his $15 mil on your list. His contract is one of my concerns.

[oldtimer]

I am concerned with starting pitching next year and that concern may be heighened if Sale and Price don't look good in the PO's. Lets face it, a lot of innings for all of the top three at this point in their careers. Our starters would be:

 

Sale

Price

Porcello

E-Rod

Wright (spot starts)

Johnson/Velazquez (spot starts)

 

I would prefer getting another right hand starter such as Eovaldi, but as a free agent and with this years performance, he won't be cheap. Maybe $10 mil.

[Slasher9]

I think this was a pretty good first stab, but vehemently disagree on dropping Vazquez. And not including Wright is criminal. I also see 3 relievers you could drop without hurting the bullpen: Kelly, Pom, and Johnson.

 

Vazquez brings you back to 14 position players, about normal for the postseason and leaves 11 pitchers, also normal for the playoffs.

 

If you drop Kelly, Pom, and Johnson, you can bring back Wright and Vazquez--and maybe Poyner (lone lefty in bullpen). Pom has a WAR of -.6, which I think is earned. Johnson's is 0.0, ditto. Kelly's is .3, but he is just so inconsistent and has been horrible in September.

 

regarding wright. we've discussed. post #299 of this thread.

[moonslav59]

Can I ask where you are getting your numbers?

The Sox fielding stat page has them both at 321 Total Chances.

 

Or are you discounting Nunez's play at other positions?

Seems silly, if one is evaluating a players skill.

 

I was comparing their 3B skills and got the numbers from fangraphs.

[moonslav59]

1. $10.5mill to players not on the 40-man roster? Do they now count against the luxury tax? Castillo makes more than that amount on his own.

 

It was $10.5M for the scrubs who fill out the rest of the 40 man roster... not Castillo.

 

2. I'd be surprised if Smith got arnitration at all. Thornburg is an interesting case that I could see go eiither way. But if set up man is on the wish list, he might be a cheaper alternative than free agency.

 

That's why I put Smith and Thornburg in a separate category and did not count their arb estimates in my numbers.

 

3. On the "major holes" list, really, it's just closer and some possible bench stuff, but most of those holes might be with the team already.

 

We need some serious pen building. I doubt we get much from within the system.

 

Also, as much as I don't like it, if the Sox have to move a player making some cash, Bradley is the most likely candidate...

 

Sadly, I agree, although I'd rather trade Bogey's 1 year vs JBJ's 2 years of control.

[moonslav59]

I'm still in Magoo Mode. Where is Pedroia (who makes $15mill mext year) on this list?

 

Midda Magoo corrected it.

[vegasbob]

IMO the BP needs to include the following (Assume Rodriguez is the 4th starter) :

Eovaldi because his FB my help in one inning or he could do long relief

Kimbrel because there may be a 3 out save opportunity, otherwise forget him.

Brasier because he has earned the spot

Poyner because Cora needs one LH, and I trust Poyner slightly more than Robby Scott. Consideration given to B. Johnson but we'll see after tonight.

Wright because he offers a real change of pace and has been effective lately

Workman in spite of the tendency for HR balls

Barnes because I need someone to blame for being a HS pitcher.

 

Go with Pearce or Moreland, Swihart, Holt , Nunez, Vasquez on the bench.

[moonslav59]

IMO the BP needs to include the following (Assume Rodriguez is the 4th starter) :

Eovaldi because his FB my help in one inning or he could do long relief

Kimbrel because there may be a 3 out save opportunity, otherwise forget him.

Brasier because he has earned the spot

Poyner because Cora needs one LH, and I trust Poyner slightly more than Robby Scott. Consideration given to B. Johnson but we'll see after tonight.

Wright because he offers a real change of pace and has been effective lately

Workman in spite of the tendency for HR balls

Barnes because I need someone to blame for being a HS pitcher.

 

Go with Pearce or Moreland, Swihart, Holt , Nunez, Vasquez on the bench.

 

I think Eovaldi starts game 4.

 

We've already seen ERod being used in relief the past 2 weeks.

 

I think Poyner is still on the bubble and one of the season long regulars has a good chance of making it: Kelly or Hembree.

[moonslav59]

All you have to do is to watch the games in action. Hembree has been bad and so has Thornburg. Pomeranz has nothing left and has been very ineffective and Scott doesn't get it done. At least with Cuevas, he has the stuff to be an effective pitcher. You guys that want to denigrate those who watch the games carefully and fall back on a constant litany of stats do yourselves a disservice

 

Still feel this way?

[oldtimer]

Still feel this way?

 

No. Cuevas had the opportunity to build on his good performance against the Guardians and was shelled tonight by the Yankees. He was unlucky but he was also hit very hard. One more possibility bites the dust in the BP. Al the more reasons for Bares to get it back together.

[oldtimer]

IMO the BP needs to include the following (Assume Rodriguez is the 4th starter) :

Eovaldi because his FB my help in one inning or he could do long relief

Kimbrel because there may be a 3 out save opportunity, otherwise forget him.

Brasier because he has earned the spot

Poyner because Cora needs one LH, and I trust Poyner slightly more than Robby Scott. Consideration given to B. Johnson but we'll see after tonight.

Wright because he offers a real change of pace and has been effective lately

Workman in spite of the tendency for HR balls

Barnes because I need someone to blame for being a HS pitcher.

 

Go with Pearce or Moreland, Swihart, Holt , Nunez, Vasquez on the bench.

 

Cora has now indicated that barring injury he has his PO team roster set. There are two still to be selected and both are pitchers. This is what he indicated.

 

The following pitchers are all but set: Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez, Nathan Eovaldi, Craig Kimbrel, Steven Wright, Ryan Brasier and Matt Barnes.

 

That leaves two spots open for a pool that includes Joe Kelly, Heath Hembree, Brandon Workman, Bobby Poyner and Brian Johnson.

[moonslav59]

Cora has now indicated that barring injury he has his PO team roster set. There are two still to be selected and both are pitchers. This is what he indicated.

 

The following pitchers are all but set: Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez, Nathan Eovaldi, Craig Kimbrel, Steven Wright, Ryan Brasier and Matt Barnes.

 

That leaves two spots open for a pool that includes Joe Kelly, Heath Hembree, Brandon Workman, Bobby Poyner and Brian Johnson.

 

So, 11 pitchers-- just like I hoped.

 

I'm hoping he chooses Workman. I'd probably take Poyner over Hembree.

 

I hope to God, he doesn't play the dumb loyalty card and take Kelly or Pom.

 

I don't think Johnson gets in. I'd almost give it to Velazquez or Kelly over Johnson. Almost.

 

[moonslav59]

No. Cuevas had the opportunity to build on his good performance against the Guardians and was shelled tonight by the Yankees. He was unlucky but he was also hit very hard. One more possibility bites the dust in the BP. Al the more reasons for Bares to get it back together.

 

After all these years, oldtimer, with all the due respect you truly deserve, why not give up on these one game judgments?

 

[oldtimer]

After all these years, oldtimer, with all the due respect you truly deserve, why not give up on these one game judgments?

 

 

it wasn't really just a one game judgement. I liked the kids slider and thought he had more of a chance to make the grade. He obviously was knocked around by the Yankees which tells me his stuff isn't good enough for the post season. I wouldn't gived up on him for next year though.

[oldtimer]

So, 11 pitchers-- just like I hoped.

 

I'm hoping he chooses Workman. I'd probably take Poyner over Hembree.

 

I hope to God, he doesn't play the dumb loyalty card and take Kelly or Pom.

 

I don't think Johnson gets in. I'd almost give it to Velazquez or Kelly over Johnson. Almost.

 

 

Workman and Poyner are decent choices. We could use a lefty specialist and Poyner seems to be our best at this time. Workman has a hard sinker and looks to be more reliable than either Hembree or Kelly. Too bad, as both have better velocity. Johnson's sort of a 7th ir spot starter but unlikely to contribute in the Post Season. Its a trade off picking among his last 5 in the running.

[notin]

Workman and Poyner are decent choices. We could use a lefty specialist and Poyner seems to be our best at this time. Workman has a hard sinker and looks to be more reliable than either Hembree or Kelly. Too bad, as both have better velocity. Johnson's sort of a 7th ir spot starter but unlikely to contribute in the Post Season. Its a trade off picking among his last 5 in the running.

 

Workman hasn’t been very good lately, either.

 

If it is down to Kelly or Workman, I think I take Kelly. While he is inconsistent, when he’s on, he’s unhittable. When Workman is on, he's not as good. It comes down to “higher ceiling vs higher floor.” Kelly has the higher ceiling but Workman has the higher floor.

 

I would hope Poyner makes it...

[moonslav59]

it wasn't really just a one game judgement. I liked the kids slider and thought he had more of a chance to make the grade. He obviously was knocked around by the Yankees which tells me his stuff isn't good enough for the post season. I wouldn't gived up on him for next year though.

 

He does have good stuff, but so do other struggling Sox pitchers seemingly working their way towards not being chosen for the playoff roster.

 

Cuevas did not look good before his 5+ inning gem in relief. He looked awful this past game. I'm not sure about the "wasn't just one game" argument, since he only had one good game all yeaar with the Sox.

[moonslav59]

Workman hasn’t been very good lately, either.

 

Not many have "looked good" lately, but Workman has looked less sucky than others, lately.

 

 

If it is down to Kelly or Workman, I think I take Kelly. While he is inconsistent, when he’s on, he’s unhittable. When Workman is on, he's not as good. It comes down to “higher ceiling vs higher floor.” Kelly has the higher ceiling but Workman has the higher floor.

 

You have a good point, but we've been waiting for Kelly to look good again for a long long time. I just don't see a light at the end of the tunnel. Furthermore, this is Kelly's contract year. He has shown that when the pressure was on, he wilted. After the first two months, he was looking at a huge contract this winter. Maybe that went to his head- maybe not.

 

I've always liked Workman, and it seems like injuries have kept him down. He looks healthy now.

 

I go with Workman and Poynder, but I can see Cora taking Kelly or Hembree.

 

 

I would hope Poyner makes it...

 

Me, too. I think Cora agrees.

[Carbo-Diem]

Workman's experience in the 2013 post season is the tie breaker for me.

[notin]

Workman hasn’t been very good lately, either.

 

 

You have a good point, but we've been waiting for Kelly to look good again for a long long time. I just don't see a light at the end of the tunnel. Furthermore, this is Kelly's contract year. He has shown that when the pressure was on, he wilted. After the first two months, he was looking at a huge contract this winter. Maybe that went to his head- maybe not.

 

 

There are two ways to look at that "long time."

 

1. It's been 4 weeks.

 

2. It;s been 7.2 innings pitched.

 

So while the calendar says it has been a long time, the IP sample size really doesn't...