Who Should the Red Sox Trade For?

[Carbo-Diem]

The Red Sox have only 64 games remaining so Xander Bogaerts will play a maximum of 143 games. In the unlikely event Xander Bogaerts plays all 64 games and maintains his per/game WAR rate, he will finish just shy of 5.9 fWAR.

 

You can't argue with math and isn't that what baseball is all about? Averages, run totals, exit velocities, launch angles, and speed on the base paths.

[Bellhorn04]

The Red Sox have only 64 games remaining so Xander Bogaerts will play a maximum of 143 games. In the unlikely event Xander Bogaerts plays all 64 games and maintains his per/game WAR rate, he will finish just shy of 5.9 fWAR.

 

Not close enough to 6 for you?

[sk7326]

The Red Sox have only 64 games remaining so Xander Bogaerts will play a maximum of 143 games. In the unlikely event Xander Bogaerts plays all 64 games and maintains his per/game WAR rate, he will finish just shy of 5.9 fWAR.

 

That is a fantastic season - and at that point, really the difference in WAR gets bogged down in noise and the squishier areas of quantification (read: defense, replacement level)

[notin]

On another thread I posted that as of today our starting staff was the following:

Sale

Hope

Hope

Hope

Hope

 

The four Hopes are 1)Price pitches the rest of the season as if he's worth at least half his contract; 2)Porcello bounces back after a terrible start; 3)E-rod comes back sooner rather than later; and 4)Wright also comes back soon, or DD can try to find another starter. I believe POR will rebound, however the other 3 Hopes are going to be tough to achieve. After a storybook 1st 98 games, let's Hope this book has a happy ending.

 

Price isn't going to be a $31mill pitcher, but he will probably pitch better than anyone the Sox are able to get at the deadline or call up from the minors...

[Kimmi]

It's very possible that a 104-win team will be facing an 88-win team this year in that Play-in game. This is one reason why neither the Sox nor Yanks are giving an inch during the regular season, and why both are having amazing seasons.

 

This pressure will not lessen until one has more or less secured the top spot and then the loser will have the advantage of resting either Chris Sale or Luis Severino. If it goes down to the final weekend in Boston, then Sale or Severino would miss the Play-in game... which could easily mean disaster. But even a win in the Play-in game with Sale or Sev, means being at a distinct disadvantage in the semi-finals.

 

That is crazy do think that a team with 100+ wins could be a wildcard team, especially coupled with how few games the AL Central leader may win.

 

I think the AL race is going to come down to that final series in September. There will be no letting up.

[Kimmi]

I think they will chase hard for the most part. But I don't think you will see, say, the Red Sox change their "Sale preservation schedule" (to the degree they have one) to win the division. I think both teams will still be careful with guys they want to rest for medical reasons.

 

I do not disagree.

[a700hitter]

What makes people think Zack Wheeler will be so cheap? Think that the Mets held on to this guy through injury-plagued and missed seasons just to guarantee being able to trade him for a pile of dirt?

What would make him cheap would also make him undesirable to acquire. The Mets are at the end of their patience with him. Before his arm injury, he was very frustrating with high pitch counts and lots of walks. He seemed to be gettin his act together right before his surgery. Post surgery, he has been regained his form as a frustratingly inconsistent pitcher. He might be adequate for our 5th slot, but I wouldn’t offer much for him. Edited July 17, 2018 by a700hitter

[moonslav59]

The Phils are willing to part with top 100 prospect Adonis Medina. They’ll land Machado on Wednesday.

 

Also, the comparisons of Xander and Segura are apt in terms of WAR but not realistic in terms of progression with age. Speedsters don’t get the biggest contracts and A huge part of Segura’s game is speed. Bogaerts is coming into his own in the power department. He’ll age better than Segura and Boras knows it. Bogaerts also said he’s fine with going year to year. Now healthy, he’s poised to make significant bank in arbitration for the final time through. Bogey is on pace for a 6+ WAR season. If he produces like this for this year and next, he’ll end up getting a Machado style FA contract.

 

Bogey is not the fielder Machado is, but he seems to be headed towards some serious cash.

[Station 13]

Bogey is not the fielder Machado is, but he seems to be headed towards some serious cash.

 

Machado is a mediocre SS. He is a lot better at 3B. He is playing SS to get the maximum contract.

[Hitch]

Yeah the SS thing is a pretty selfish move by Machado. I'd play him 3rd only personally, as he's excellent there.

[Bellhorn04]

Yeah the SS thing is a pretty selfish move by Machado. I'd play him 3rd only personally, as he's excellent there.

 

Bogaerts was the same way.

 

The only really unselfish guy, that guy who agreed to switch from SS to 3B to make things work was...no, I can't even type his name.

[harmony]

Not close enough to 6 for you?

Xander Bogaerts is unlikely to play all 64 remaining games.

 

From another perspective, Bogaerts is on pace to play 131 games this year. If Bogaerts maintains his current per-game WAR rate over 131 games, he'll finish with 5.3 fWAR.

 

Bogaerts will probably play between 42 and 64 remaining games and his WAR should be impacted proportionately.

 

Xander Bogaerts is having a fine season.

Edited July 17, 2018 by harmony

[moonslav59]

Machado is a mediocre SS. He is a lot better at 3B. He is playing SS to get the maximum contract.

 

Good point.

 

I will add, Bogey has been "mediocre" for years according to UZR/150 but horrible according to DRS.

[Hitch]

Bogaerts was the same way.

 

The only really unselfish guy, that guy who agreed to switch from SS to 3B to make things work was...no, I can't even type his name.

 

Ha! Yeah, it's a fair point. I think with Bogaerts it was more that he was comfortable at SS and not at 3rd, more than maximising his potential earnings, though. But then maybe that's seeing it through rose-tinted glasses because he's at the Sox.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Bogaerts was the same way.

 

The only really unselfish guy, that guy who agreed to switch from SS to 3B to make things work was...no, I can't even type his name.

 

Cal Ripken?

[Spudboy]

On another thread I posted that as of today our starting staff was the following:

Sale

Hope

Hope

Hope

Hope

 

The four Hopes are 1)Price pitches the rest of the season as if he's worth at least half his contract; 2)Porcello bounces back after a terrible start; 3)E-rod comes back sooner rather than later; and 4)Wright also comes back soon, or DD can try to find another starter. I believe POR will rebound, however the other 3 Hopes are going to be tough to achieve. After a storybook 1st 98 games, let's Hope this book has a happy ending.

 

Yup.

 

Our rotation has been productive and an asset.

 

Now it could be our Achilles heel.

[Spudboy]

Not close enough to 6 for you?

 

Bell the important thing here is that he got some attention and proved that everyone else is wrong.

 

[Spudboy]

Cal Ripken?

 

Wrong color.

 

He's thinking more of a lavender.

[S5Dewey]

Bell the important thing here is that he got some attention and proved that everyone else is wrong.

 

 

And while he's having his little pissing contest about whether Bogaerts will end up at 5.3, 5.9, or 6.0 he might also want to read the preamble where BR admits that it's not an exact science. So inexact in fact that they don't include a margin of error.

[OH FOY]

Dodgers are getting really serious if they offered Yusniel Diaz for Machado. This is a big mistake. They paid 31 million, just for rights to sign him. In the Futures Games he showed what kind of potential he has.

[Bellhorn04]

Dodgers are getting really serious if they offered Yusniel Diaz for Machado. This is a big mistake. They paid 31 million, just for rights to sign him. In the Futures Games he showed what kind of potential he has.

 

That suggests they think Machado might really like to play the rest of his career for them.

[harmony]

And while he's having his little pissing contest about whether Bogaerts will end up at 5.3, 5.9, or 6.0 he might also want to read the preamble where BR admits that it's not an exact science. So inexact in fact that they don't include a margin of error.

Indeed, it's not an exact science.

 

But to be precise, I've cited only the WAR numbers from FanGraphs, not BR (Baseball Reference), which has Xander Bogaerts at only 2.1 bWAR through 79 games this year:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bogaexa01.shtml

 

Still, it's a solid year so far.

Edited July 17, 2018 by harmony

[Fan_since_Boggs]

What about a guy like Zack Wheeler from the Mets? Wouldn’t have to give up a lot

 

In an earlier post, I suggested Beeks, Dalbec, and Swihart to the Mets for Wheeler, Cabrera, and Mesoraco.

 

In Beeks, the Mets get a cost controlled starter who is ready for the big leagues now. Dalbec is a possible future starter at 3b (the Mets aren't loaded at the 3b position in the minors). The Mets can take a look at Swihart for the rest of the season to determine if he is their catcher of the future.

 

What are the Mets losing? Mesoraco and Cabrera are free agents after the season. Wheeler has one more season of control beyond 2018.

 

However, the Mets might demand more for Wheeler. It could depend on how much they like Swihart. The Mets are desperate for a young catcher, but that doesn't necessarily mean they want Swihart.

Edited July 17, 2018 by Fan_since_Boggs

[S5Dewey]

Indeed, it's not an exact science.

 

But to be precise, I've cited only the WAR numbers from FanGraphs, not BR (Baseball Reference), which has Xander Bogaerts at only 2.1 bWAR through 79 games this year:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bogaexa01.shtml

 

Still, it's a solid year so far.

 

My sweet God you're a pain in the ass. You'll stop at nothing to be right, or if you can't be right, at least obtuse.

 

Ok, have it your way. This is from FANGRAPH'S explanation of WAR: [emphasis mine]

 

WAR is not meant to be a perfectly precise indicator of a player’s contribution, but rather an estimate of their value to date. Given the imperfections of some of the available data and the assumptions made to calculate other components, WAR works best as an approximation. A 6 WAR player might be worth between 5.0 and 7.0 WAR,...

 

Happy now?

[Carbo-Diem]

My sweet God you're a pain in the ass. You'll stop at nothing to be right, or if you can't be right, at least obtuse.

 

Ok, have it your way. This is from FANGRAPH'S explanation of WAR: [emphasis mine]

 

WAR is not meant to be a perfectly precise indicator of a player’s contribution, but rather an estimate of their value to date. Given the imperfections of some of the available data and the assumptions made to calculate other components, WAR works best as an approximation. A 6 WAR player might be worth between 5.0 and 7.0 WAR,...

 

Happy now?

 

War, huh, yeah

What is it good for

Absolutely nothing

War, huh, yeah

What is it good for

Absolutely nothing

Say it again, why'all

[S5Dewey]

War, huh, yeah

What is it good for

Absolutely nothing

War, huh, yeah

What is it good for

Absolutely nothing

Say it again, why'all

 

Here's another take on Fangraphs and WAR that I found interesting...

 

A 6 WAR player might be worth between 5.0 and 7.0 WAR,...

If one can say that a 6 WAR player might be worth between 5.0 and 7.0 WAR is it also equally as fair to say that he might not? IOW according to Fangraphs it could be anything!

 

People wonder why I'm skeptical about WAR. Hah!

[sk7326]

Here's another take on Fangraphs and WAR that I found interesting...

 

A 6 WAR player might be worth between 5.0 and 7.0 WAR,...

If one can say that a 6 WAR player might be worth between 5.0 and 7.0 WAR is it also equally as fair to say that he might not? IOW according to Fangraphs it could be anything!

 

People wonder why I'm skeptical about WAR. Hah!

 

WAR is accurate directionally - magnitude is as precise as the inputs. Because measuring defense is hard - and because the idea of a replacement player is inherently tricky - there is some level of error. As I will note, RBIs are a made up stat too - with far less rigor.

[S5Dewey]

WAR is accurate directionally - magnitude is as precise as the inputs. Because measuring defense is hard - and because the idea of a replacement player is inherently tricky - there is some level of error. As I will note, RBIs are a made up stat too - with far less rigor.

 

According to Fangraphs WAR "might" be as much as ~17% off. That's a pretty significant margin of error!

 

I'm really just having a little fun with this. It's interesting that in the original debate Bell was saying that Bogaerts WAR for this year would project to be ~6.0, Harmony was saying that it could be as low as 5.3, and Fangraphs says that due to the margin of error both of them might be right because due to the margin of error, statistically they're the same number! LOL

[Fan_since_Boggs]

On another thread I posted that as of today our starting staff was the following:

Sale

Hope

Hope

Hope

Hope

 

The four Hopes are 1)Price pitches the rest of the season as if he's worth at least half his contract; 2)Porcello bounces back after a terrible start; 3)E-rod comes back sooner rather than later; and 4)Wright also comes back soon, or DD can try to find another starter. I believe POR will rebound, however the other 3 Hopes are going to be tough to achieve. After a storybook 1st 98 games, let's Hope this book has a happy ending.

 

Brian Johnson is a better pitcher than most people give him credit for. If he stays in the rotation for a month or two, he should perform well. I'm not saying he is an ace, but he has a plus curveball and is capable of pitching like a middle of the rotation starter.

 

We can't totally rule out Pomeranz but it is hard to have confidence in him while minor league hitters use him for batting practice. Maybe that will change on Wednesday -- who knows.

[cp176]

Beeks is young and may some day be decent. Probably I am not much of a fan of his I guess. I don't think that this team needs to do anything at all. If they can become even just semi-healthy they are going to be fine. Trying to sign some over the hill drone when you have Johnson, Valezuez, and possibly Pomeranz, would be a waste in my estimation. I think it is very likely that Phillips will be coming on board to help as well. Contrary to most, i see our bullpen is a strength as long as they get over the thought that Kelly is a legit 8th inning option. i could see DD going after a young power arm if they do not think that they can sign Kimbrel to a contract that works. Other than that, I see no reason to change much with these guys. They like each other - they pull for each other - they play hard. The dubs are gone! I realize too that there are plenty of Price haters here one of which I am not. If Pedroia gets a free pass which it appears he has in the eyes of many, then so should Price. Price certainly can still help us whether people think that he throws like a 2-3 or 4 and that he is overpaid.