Pitchers and their rest

[cp176]

Hoping to hear from the analytic folk on this one. We all realize that resting pitchers is important. What do you think - Is it better to give that starter an extra day off or maybe even totally skip a start as opposed to say limiting pitch counts from maybe 110-115 down to lets say 90-95? I'm leaning toward the extra day or maybe even skipping starts. 6 man rotation if you have the men? Has a study already been done?

[mvp 78]

To me, I just want the innings and pitches controlled the first 1/3 of the season. After that, I think the starters should be good to go. I think adding in an additional day off once in a while down the stretch wouldn't be a bad idea.

[moonslav59]

As long as our pen is doing well, I'd limit the pitches for 1/3 to a 1/2 season and then don't overdo it afterwards.

 

With Johnson & Velazquez in the pen, we have the "innings guys" to allow us some leeway in yanking starters very early.

[moonslav59]

If Wright comes back strong, we could have a pen stacked with 2-4 inning pitchers and then Kimbrel, Smith, Kelly and Barnes for the late innings only.

[cp176]

If Wright comes back strong, we could have a pen stacked with 2-4 inning pitchers and then Kimbrel, Smith, Kelly and Barnes for the late innings only.

 

My guess and it is just a guess is that limiting pitchers to throwing 10 to 15 pitches per start and staying with the regular rotation starts will not give them the rest that they need. I would think that going every 6th day or periodically skipping starts makes sense.

[illinoisredsox]

My guess and it is just a guess is that limiting pitchers to throwing 10 to 15 pitches per start and staying with the regular rotation starts will not give them the rest that they need. I would think that going every 6th day or periodically skipping starts makes sense.

 

 

I assume you meant 100-115 pitches per start.

 

The problem with going every 6th day is that they will get used to it; will they be able to convert to every 5 days down the stretch and especially in the postseason? We already see mixed results when pitchers are asked to go on 3 days rest late in the year after not doing it all season.

 

Skipping a start here and there would be better IMO.

 

Once thing these guys could do is learn every pitch does not need to be thrown with maximum effort. If you can throw 98 but can get get guys out with 90-92, do it. I know changing speeds is not as sexy as striking everyone out with heat, but it is very effective (one need look no further than the Sox futility with CC Sabathia as an example of that). As Warren Spahn said, hitting is timing and pitching is upsetting timing. And all old Warren did was pitch into his 40s (winning nearly 300 games AFTER he turned 30).

[sk7326]

1. As far as how to keep pitchers healthy - we are all guessing to a degree. (Jeff Passan's The Arm covers this well) Skipping starts vs extra days ... it's hard to say. Now, giving 5 days between starts does seem to help.

 

2. If you look at what Cora is doing, and what is going on league-wide ... it's going to be a combination of managing pitch counts AND batters faced. If a starter can get through the lineup twice, then you're on schedule. Price and Sale (and Porcello to a degree) have a bit more leeway to dabble into the 3rd trip through the order.

[notin]

I like the idea of keeping pitch counts, and raising the limits as the season progresses (independently for each pitcher). While certainly not true for every pitcher, it does seem like a lot of them are creatures of habit and like easy routines.

 

Also, it's harder to find 6 good pitchers than it is to find 5, and that also limits the number of games impacted by your ace. I would rather not see Chris Sale get fewer starts just so Hector Velasquez can get more. ..

[cp176]

I assume you meant 100-115 pitches per start.

 

The problem with going every 6th day is that they will get used to it; will they be able to convert to every 5 days down the stretch and especially in the postseason? We already see mixed results when pitchers are asked to go on 3 days rest late in the year after not doing it all season.

 

Skipping a start here and there would be better IMO.

 

Once thing these guys could do is learn every pitch does not need to be thrown with maximum effort. If you can throw 98 but can get get guys out with 90-92, do it. I know changing speeds is not as sexy as striking everyone out with heat, but it is very effective (one need look no further than the Sox futility with CC Sabathia as an example of that). As Warren Spahn said, hitting is timing and pitching is upsetting timing. And all old Warren did was pitch into his 40s (winning nearly 300 games AFTER he turned 30).

 

yes - I was talking about pitches per starts.

 

I'm not opposed to pitch counts. Anything that you do to try to keep pitchers healthy.

[Carbo-Diem]

Here's what Nolan Ryan has to say on this topic: "These pu**y pitchers and their mo%$herfuc*ing candy as$ managers crying every day about fuc*ing pitch counts and third time through the moth#$f*c*ing order bulls**t is godd**ned crazy I tell you. In my day we went the whole season with four starters, fourty f**king complete games and games where the starters threw 150+ moth**fuc*ing pitches"!

[mvp 78]

Here's what Nolan Ryan has to say on this topic: "These pu**y pitchers and their mo%$herfuc*ing candy as$ managers crying every day about fuc*ing pitch counts and third time through the moth#$f*c*ing order bulls**t is godd**ned crazy I tell you. In my day we went the whole season with four starters, fourty f**king complete games and games where the starters threw 150+ moth**fuc*ing pitches"!

 

Ryan tried to make the Rangers starters throw more innings. It didn't work out.

[Bellhorn04]

Also, Ryan was a freak of nature.

[illinoisredsox]

Also, Ryan was a freak of nature.

 

Touche. Add to that what I said before. While he could throw 100+, he didn't do it all the time. 95 was good enough and he had the extra when he needed it.

 

He had perfect mechanics; he also had a great curveball and NEVER threw a slider.

[RedSoxNC84]

Here's what Nolan Ryan has to say on this topic: "These pu**y pitchers and their mo%$herfuc*ing candy as$ managers crying every day about fuc*ing pitch counts and third time through the moth#$f*c*ing order bulls**t is godd**ned crazy I tell you. In my day we went the whole season with four starters, fourty f**king complete games and games where the starters threw 150+ moth**fuc*ing pitches"!

 

Sounds like a good way to blow a UCL.

[Spudboy]

Also, Ryan was a freak of nature.

 

Maybe so but pitchers did throw way more pitches and complete more games back then.

 

Yes, I know the mound was higher. Big deal.

[Kimmi]

It seems that the number of pitches thrown in a game has more of an effect on future performance than days of rest has. And the cumulative effect is greater than the immediate effect. That, coupled with the idea of not having your starters face an opposing line up a 3rd time through the order suggests to me that limiting pitch counts would be more effective than more days of rest in between starts.

 

That said, I'm not opposed to giving a starter an extra day off here and there.

[Maxbialystock]

Nolan Ryan has a point even though he basically is dead wrong.

 

The point is that a 6th starter is folly unless you don't have any really good starters.

 

With Porcello doing so well, Cora would be nuts not to keep Sale, Price, and Porcello pitching every 5th day and mitigating that with pitch counts, etc.

 

The point is that really good starters are often the difference between winning and losing, which is why they get so much money. And now we're going to give them extra rest? Give me a break.

 

Last year the only problem with Sale was the number of innings and pitches he threw in the first 4 months. Cora has already fixed that.

 

I'm glad Kimmi mentioned the three times through the order thing. I do think that is a factor, but also think your best pitchers (Sale, Price, Porcello) should be up to it and that the pitches thrown at that point plus their overall effectiveness in that game should determine whether a third time through the lineup is merited. And usually the two coincide--a pitcher who has only been so-so the first two times through the order usually has also used a lot of pitches.

Edited April 15, 2018 by Maxbialystock