The 2018 Bullpen Season Thread

[Kimmi]

Yes, in 2016-2017 Kimbrel was 66 out of 72. That's 91.7%. I'd be surprised if there were many with a higher % than that.

 

Kimmi?

 

Kenley Jansen 88 out of 93 - 94.6%

Wade Davis 59 out of 63 - 93.7%

AJ Ramos 67 out of 73 - 91.8%

Zach Britton 62 out of 64 - 96.9%

 

There are several others that are not necessarily higher, but in the same neighborhood of 90-91%.

 

Again, I'm not trying to knock Kimbrel. He is one of the best in the game. That's not my point.

[Kimmi]

A big payout to anybody jeopardizes keeping other players. There are only so many slices in the pie. We're lucky that with the Red Sox it's a pretty big pie.

 

Don't you think a big payout to a starting pitcher or a position player would be worth more to the team than a big payout to a relief pitcher?

[Bellhorn04]

Of course it's usually not a bad idea to look at what Mr. Epstein is doing. Last year he signed Davis to a one-year deal and got excellent results. This year he signed Brandon Morrow to a two-year deal and Morrow has been excellent so far.

[Bellhorn04]

Don't you think a big payout to a starting pitcher or a position player would be worth more to the team than a big payout to a relief pitcher?

 

It's certainly possible. I'm happy that it's not me who has to make these kinds of decisions, to tell you the truth.

[Kimmi]

Just because I enjoy a good discussion, allow me to point out that so far Kimbrel has 5 saves in 1 run games and 1 loss and 1 blown save. I'd call that 5-2, and the team is 21-8.

 

He has an ERA of 1.42, which is excellent, but it's for 12 innings. Velazquez has pitched 22 innings with a 2.05 ERA, Sale 42 innings with a 2.14, Porcello 40.1 with a 2.23 ERA, etc.

 

Those numbers tell me Kimbrel is the guy for the 9th, but the team needs a whole lot of help in the other 8 innings, to say nothing of the guys driving in and scoring the runs. The starting pitchers, I hasten to add, normally go thru a lineup at least twice and usually three or four times, but not Kimbrel. On the other hand, he must be ready for that one inning and can't afford to have it be a bad one.

 

In the end, I probably go by WAR, as clumsy as that is.

 

Right now Kimbrel's is .9, Velazquez 1.0, Sale 1.9, Porcello 2.0, and Price .8. Key lineup player WAR's are: Betts 1.7, Martinez 1.2, Bogie .8 (less than half the games).

 

The only salary bargain among the above is Velazquez. Sale, Porcello, and Price are all pricey, and so is Martinez. Betts and Bogie will be.

 

It's not clumsy. You typically get more bang for your buck with starting pitchers or position players than you do with relievers.

[Kimmi]

Love how Kimbrel came back for the save today. Nice.

 

Me too. I'm glad he got the opportunity to get right back out there and wipe the sour taste out of his mouth.

[Kimmi]

But there are hardly any closers who consistently, reliably post the kind of save percentage that Kimbrel does.

 

That might be true. I still think the money is better used elsewhere.

[Kimmi]

Of course it's usually not a bad idea to look at what Mr. Epstein is doing. Last year he signed Davis to a one-year deal and got excellent results. This year he signed Brandon Morrow to a two-year deal and Morrow has been excellent so far.

 

I would rather Dombrowski overpay a little for a one or two year deal than hand out a 5 year deal.

[moonslav59]

It's not clumsy. You typically get more bang for your buck with starting pitchers or position players than you do with relievers.

 

I've always felt WAR is n0t a good measure for RP'ers.

 

Before today's game, fangraphs had barnes with a higher WAR thaan Kimbrel. Weird since Kimbrel has more IP.

 

Kimbrel was ranked 36th in MLB WAR for RP'ers in 2018.

 

Combine 2017 & 2018:

 

3.6 Kimbrel

3.4 Osuna

3.4 Jansen

3.1 C Green

2,8 Miller

2.7 A Bailey

2.7 Knebel

2.5 Neshek

2.4 F Vazquez

2.3 Robertson

2.3 Madson

2.3 Chapman

[Spudboy]

I am not trying to knock Kimbrel. He is awesome. I am just adamantly against signing relief pitchers to big contracts.

 

My point with save percentage is that there are closers with save % just as good who are much cheaper.

 

Who are they and what would the Sox have to pay them?

[dgalehouse]

Don't you think a big payout to a starting pitcher or a position player would be worth more to the team than a big payout to a relief pitcher?

 

That is a pretty general statement. Kimbrel is not just a relief pitcher. He is an elite closer. One of the best of his era. For what it would take to sign Kimbrel , you would probably get a good , but not elite , position player or starting pitcher. To get that would cost more , maybe a lot more. To make a decision , we would need to know which position player or starting pitcher could be had for Kimbrel money.

[oldtimer]

We have a very tough stretch of away games coming up. Rangers, Yankees and Blue Jays. We need to do something to bolster our BP as Johnson has been awful. Am I wrong in the thinking that if they send him back down, he is out of options and can then be picked up by another team?

 

We have three or 4 guys in Pawtucket who might help us now. Thornberg isn't ready as yet, but I would make a move before getting on the plane to Texas. Can't have enough good relief help and Johnson just cant get it done.

[moonslav59]

Save percentage is not the best criteria to use for valuing closers, but here's a look at MLB's recent best closers:

 

2017

saves/chances Closer

47/53 Colome

41/45 Holland

41/42 Jansen

39/45 Knebel

39/49 Osuna

39/45 Rodney

35/39 Kimbrel

34/39 Diaz

34/38 Giles

32/33 Davis

30/34 Allen

 

Others:

28/30 Iglesias

27/30 Ramos

26/29 Neris

24/26 Doolittle

21/23 Vazquez

_________________________________

 

2016 (Notice all the different names):

51/56 Familia

47/47 Britton

47/53 Jansen

47/51 Melancon

44/49 F Rod

40/43 Ramos

38/43 Dyson

37/40 Colome

37/43 Gomez

37/44 Robertson

36/39 Chapman

36/42 osuna

32/35Allen

31/33 Kimbrel

 

27/28 Jeffress

___________________________

 

2015

51/53 Melancon

48/51 Rosenthal

43/48Familia

41/47 Boxberger

40/45 Street

39/43 Kimbrel

38/40 F Rod

38/44 Casilla

 

36/38 Jansen

35/37 Tolleson

33/36 Chapman

32/35 Perkins

30/32 Ziegler

 

Look how many RP'ers are 1-2 blown saves away from being even or better than others.

 

 

[Larry Cook]

Maybe it is because he missed so much spring training, but Kimbrel’s fastball is flat and grabs a lot of plate. Hopefully he gets sharper because I am sick of losing games because of him.

 

Ps: Scott is looking good at Pawtucket. Time to swap him and Johnson.

[Jasonbay44]

Maybe it is because he missed so much spring training, but Kimbrel’s fastball is flat and grabs a lot of plate. Hopefully he gets sharper because I am sick of losing games because of him.

 

Ps: Scott is looking good at Pawtucket. Time to swap him and Johnson.

Sick of losing games because him? He's given up 7 hits and 2 runs in 14 innings and has a 1.32 ERA... he's going to occasionally give up runs.

[moonslav59]

10 blown saves in 3 years before 2018.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

I've seen enough of the other options to understand the Red Sox will take a big step backwards without Kimbrel. Sure he only throws 70 innings a year but every one of them is critical, that can't be said of a starter. He saved a whole lot of 1 run games already, we would not have won all of them with Kelly or whomever out there.

[Bellhorn04]

Kelly has been outstanding since his first game mess.

 

I was going to say he's a candidate for closer in 2019.

 

But he's a free agent next year too.

[Emp9]

I am not trying to knock Kimbrel. He is awesome. I am just adamantly against signing relief pitchers to big contracts.

 

My point with save percentage is that there are closers with save % just as good who are much cheaper.

 

The biggest knock against Kimbrel & his stats is that he’s on the Red Sox. We simply don’t get him as many save chances as he had earlier in his career. He hasn’t seen 40 SVO sinse he’s been here (in a single season). I think this may be my only argument for not spending big money on a Closer.

[moonslav59]

I've seen enough of the other options to understand the Red Sox will take a big step backwards without Kimbrel. Sure he only throws 70 innings a year but every one of them is critical' date=' that can't be said of a starter. He saved a whole lot of 1 run games already, we would not have won all of them with Kelly or whomever out there.[/quote']

 

It might not have to be a choice between Kimbrel & Kelly for 2019.

 

If you look at the top 15 closers every year, the amount of blown saves is usually within 2-3 with 13 to 14 of the 15.

 

That's probably why the WAR numbers between closers/best RP'ers is usually within 1.0 to 2.0 between the top 5 and 10-15th best.

 

2017 AVG WAR by 5's:

 

3.0 top 5

2.2 6-10th best

2.0 11-15th best

1.8 16th-20th best

1.7 21st-25th best

1.5 26th-30th best

[Slasher9]

But there are hardly any closers who consistently, reliably post the kind of save percentage that Kimbrel does.

 

perhaps we can increase our win % by using those millions of $ saved on not overpaying Kimbrell on upgrades at other positions......

 

btw- we already overpaid for Kimbrell once. I am not thrilled at the prospect of doing it for the same player a second time.....

[oldtimer]

Looks like we are bringing Walden up for the Texas series as E-Rod will be out on family leave for several days. We certainly could also need someone to replace Johnson, who has not gotten it done.

[mvp 78]

perhaps we can increase our win % by using those millions of $ saved on not overpaying Kimbrell on upgrades at other positions......

 

btw- we already overpaid for Kimbrell once. I am not thrilled at the prospect of doing it for the same player a second time.....

 

Faulty logic IMO. You're entitled to that position though and I won't argue otherwise.

[mvp 78]

Looks like we are bringing Walden up for the Texas series as E-Rod will be out on family leave for several days. We certainly could also need someone to replace Johnson, who has not gotten it done.

 

What would you do with Johnson: trade, release, DFA, other?

[Bellhorn04]

perhaps we can increase our win % by using those millions of $ saved on not overpaying Kimbrell on upgrades at other positions......

 

btw- we already overpaid for Kimbrell once. I am not thrilled at the prospect of doing it for the same player a second time.....

 

It remains to be seen by exactly how much we overpaid for Kimbrel. I think if anything we overpaid just a little, and that's not a big deal when you're the Red Sox.

[Bellhorn04]

What would you do with Johnson: trade, release, DFA, other?

 

Other: give him a light whack upside the head and tell him to get better fast.

[Station 13]

Kelly has been outstanding since his first game mess.

 

I was going to say he's a candidate for closer in 2019.

 

But he's a free agent next year too.

 

Joe Kelly closing? HAHAHAHA

[jacksonianmarch]

I have a feeling Johnson gets DFA'd and dealt to a team in desperate need of an arm. I wonder if TB would bite on him

[Slasher9]

It remains to be seen by exactly how much we overpaid for Kimbrel. I think if anything we overpaid just a little, and that's not a big deal when you're the Red Sox.

 

I agree with this. although I guess my main beef at the end of the day is that some of those prospects would have landed Sale and we could still have moncada....

[dgalehouse]

I'm still trying to figure out how someone " is sick of us losing games because of Kimbrel ." What ???