The 2018 Bullpen Season Thread

[Kimmi]

That may be true, but good closers blow 7 or 8 games a year. Kimbrel only blew 4 last year. Are you willing to lose 3 or 4 more games because of the downgrade?

 

Kimbrel is 66 for 72 in save opportunities since he got to Boston. That is 91.6%. Look at the numbers from so called "good" closers from last year

 

Colome 88%

Osuna 79.5%

Knebel 86.7%

Allen 88%

Herrera 83.8%

 

Say an elite closer saves 90% and a good closer saves 84%. Assuming 50 chances, you are going to blow 3 more games with a "good" closer than you are with an elite one. These are wins that turn into losses or wins later on. Also, a "good" closer on the open market is worth over $10 mil per year. Heck, good middle relief guys are getting $8 mil a year. Kimbrel may end up being 8 or 9 mil more than a good closer per year, but he also comes with 3 more locked down wins. If that worth it?

 

I'm not talking about signing a lesser closer just to save money. IMO, a 'very good closer', aka a Craig Kimbrel type, can be found for a lot less money than what I think Kimbrel is going to command. The best closers seemingly often come out of nowhere. Also, those huge contracts to relievers almost never work out.

 

As good as Kimbrel was last year, he was about the 8th best closer in terms of save %. Some better closers are making $2 to $4 mil a year.

[Bellhorn04]

As good as Kimbrel was last year, he was about the 8th best closer in terms of save %. Some better closers are making $2 to $4 mil a year.

 

He was pretty high in fWAR though, wasn't he?

[Kimmi]

You don't feel bad for the owner losing out on a few million? Seems like it's a big concern for people around here!

 

That few million could be better spent elsewhere, meaning that it could bring more of an upgrade to the team than re-signing Kimbrel would be.

 

It's not just about spending money on the closer versus not spending money on the closer.

 

The team's resources are not unlimited.

[Kimmi]

he was also standing on the bump when that juggernaut known as Diamondbacks walked him off for a title....

 

Ha. Excellent.

[Kimmi]

He was pretty high in fWAR though, wasn't he?

 

Yes he was, largely in part to his great K/W ratio. He pitched better than the other closers.

 

But in terms of save %, which is ultimately the goal of the closer, there were others better than Kimbrel.

 

Kimbrel just got it done in a more dominating fashion. Which I really like, I must admit.

 

I'm still not paying an arm and a leg for any relief pitcher.

[Bellhorn04]

I didn't realize Thornburg pitched last night till just now. Apparently he looked good.

[Emp9]

Yes he was, largely in part to his great K/W ratio. He pitched better than the other closers.

 

But in terms of save %, which is ultimately the goal of the closer, there were others better than Kimbrel.

 

Kimbrel just got it done in a more dominating fashion. Which I really like, I must admit.

 

I'm still not paying an arm and a leg for any relief pitcher.

 

I find it odd that one would use SV% as a knock against Kimbrel. O’brien was just saying last night before Kimbrel’s blown Save that his career SV% is the all time best in the game. It’s thee one attribute that seperates him from any other Closer.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

If they let Kimbrel walk, and seeing signing a FA closer is risky and they really do not appear to have a successor, then what is the play moving forward for the closer role?

[oldtimer]

If they let Kimbrel walk' date=' and seeing signing a FA closer is risky and they really do not appear to have a successor, then what is the play moving forward for the closer role?[/quote']

 

Kimbrel will probably be able to get a huge contract for something like 5 years as he is arguably the best closer in baseball. Will the Sox have the money to pay him and take the risk for the length of contract it will take? I don't question his value, but I wonder if there will be the resources available and whether a long term contract is the prudent thing to do? Perhaps the best thing to do is to let the season play out before making any decision on what we should do for a closer going forward.

[Bellhorn04]

I find it odd that one would use SV% as a knock against Kimbrel. O’brien was just saying last night before Kimbrel’s blown Save that his career SV% is the all time best in the game. It’s thee one attribute that seperates him from any other Closer.

 

Yes, in 2016-2017 Kimbrel was 66 out of 72. That's 91.7%. I'd be surprised if there were many with a higher % than that.

 

Kimmi?

[Maxbialystock]

Kimbrel will probably be able to get a huge contract for something like 5 years as he is arguably the best closer in baseball. Will the Sox have the money to pay him and take the risk for the length of contract it will take? I don't question his value, but I wonder if there will be the resources available and whether a long term contract is the prudent thing to do? Perhaps the best thing to do is to let the season play out before making any decision on what we should do for a closer going forward.

 

I agree with everyone who says Kimbrel is pretty darn good, but also think it's possible to overpay for a good thing, a reliable closer. The Sox won the WS in 2004, 2007, and 2013 with three different closers: Foulke, Papelbon, and Uehara.

 

We had Kimbrel in 2016 and 2017 and couldn't get out of the ALDS with him. Absolutely not his fault, of course, but tells me that a great closer isn't the key guy.

[Maxbialystock]

Let me go on to say I endorse moonslav's perspective that a big payout to Kimbrel jeopardizes keeping other players.

[Bellhorn04]

Let me go on to say I endorse moonslav's perspective that a big payout to Kimbrel jeopardizes keeping other players.

 

A big payout to anybody jeopardizes keeping other players. There are only so many slices in the pie. We're lucky that with the Red Sox it's a pretty big pie.

[Maxbialystock]

A big payout to anybody jeopardizes keeping other players. There are only so many slices in the pie. We're lucky that with the Red Sox it's a pretty big pie.

 

True.

[S5Dewey]

 

We had Kimbrel in 2016 and 2017 and couldn't get out of the ALDS with him. Absolutely not his fault, of course, but tells me that a great closer isn't the key guy.

 

That's correct, but there is no "KEY GUY".

You can have a triple-crown winner and not win the WS. The Sox have done it. (Yaz & Williams 2x).

You can have the Cy Young award winner and not win the WS. The Sox have done it.(Pedro, Porcillo, Clemens 3x) You can have the MVP and not win the WS. The Sox have done it,. (Pedroia, Rice, Clemens, Vaughn).

 

 

There is no "key guy". It takes a well balanced team, but the more outstanding parts a team has it would seem the better their chance of winning the WS.

 

I agree that a big payout to Kimbrel would jeopardize our chances of keeping other players. We might be better off with, say Joe Kelly, as our closer but if the team is going in that direction they need to improve significantly in other areas to avoid needing a lights-out closer.

[Maxbialystock]

That's correct, but there is no "KEY GUY".

You can have a triple-crown winner and not win the WS. The Sox have done it. (Yaz & Williams 2x).

You can have the Cy Young award winner and not win the WS. The Sox have done it.(Pedro, Porcillo, Clemens 3x) You can have the MVP and not win the WS. The Sox have done it,. (Pedroia, Rice, Clemens, Vaughn).

 

 

There is no "key guy". It takes a well balanced team, but the more outstanding parts a team has it would seem the better their chance of winning the WS.

 

I agree that a big payout to Kimbrel would jeopardize our chances of keeping other players. We might be better off with, say Joe Kelly, as our closer but if the team is going in that direction they need to improve significantly in other areas to avoid needing a lights-out closer.

 

I'm not so sure the team needs "to improve significantly in other areas." If you mean the bullpen, perhaps. But right now the Sox rank #2 in MLB in runs scored and 6th in ERA and 2d in quality starts. Defense is a little shaky, but adequate. Bullpen hurt last night and clearly needs Kelly back.

[S5Dewey]

I'm not so sure the team needs "to improve significantly in other areas." If you mean the bullpen, perhaps. But right now the Sox rank #2 in MLB in runs scored and 6th in ERA and 2d in quality starts. Defense is a little shaky, but adequate. Bullpen hurt last night and clearly needs Kelly back.

 

IMO the key to that for this year is getting Kelly back. I believe that if we have Kelly in our pen the outcome of last night's game could have been significantly different.

 

THE REASON (again IMO) this team still has a lead in the AL East is because of Kimbrel and if we're going to be without him next season we need to improve in other areas.

 

You kind of hit on the reason why we need Kimbrel back for next year. If you believe that everyone is going to maintain their statistical status-quo next season and if you believe that Kimbrel is the reason we still have a lead in the AL East (I do, and I think it's obvious) then we need Kimbrel next year to compete with the EE.

[Maxbialystock]

IMO the key to that for this year is getting Kelly back. I believe that if we have Kelly in our pen the outcome of last night's game could have been significantly different.

 

THE REASON (again IMO) this team still has a lead in the AL East is because of Kimbrel and if we're going to be without him next season we need to improve in other areas.

 

You kind of hit on the reason why we need Kimbrel back for next year. If you believe that everyone is going to maintain their statistical status-quo next season and if you believe that Kimbrel is the reason we still have a lead in the AL East (I do, and I think it's obvious) then we need Kimbrel next year to compete with the EE.

 

Just because I enjoy a good discussion, allow me to point out that so far Kimbrel has 5 saves in 1 run games and 1 loss and 1 blown save. I'd call that 5-2, and the team is 21-8.

 

He has an ERA of 1.42, which is excellent, but it's for 12 innings. Velazquez has pitched 22 innings with a 2.05 ERA, Sale 42 innings with a 2.14, Porcello 40.1 with a 2.23 ERA, etc.

 

Those numbers tell me Kimbrel is the guy for the 9th, but the team needs a whole lot of help in the other 8 innings, to say nothing of the guys driving in and scoring the runs. The starting pitchers, I hasten to add, normally go thru a lineup at least twice and usually three or four times, but not Kimbrel. On the other hand, he must be ready for that one inning and can't afford to have it be a bad one.

 

In the end, I probably go by WAR, as clumsy as that is.

 

Right now Kimbrel's is .9, Velazquez 1.0, Sale 1.9, Porcello 2.0, and Price .8. Key lineup player WAR's are: Betts 1.7, Martinez 1.2, Bogie .8 (less than half the games).

 

The only salary bargain among the above is Velazquez. Sale, Porcello, and Price are all pricey, and so is Martinez. Betts and Bogie will be.

[moonslav59]

I haven't read every post here, so forgive me, if I am repeating someone else's point, but I think we should (will?)...

 

Offer Kimbrel a QO and let the chips fall where they may.

 

If we lose him, we get some help on the farm, and some budget space to sign someone or keep someone we were about to lose.

 

If he accepts, we have him for one more year within the window.

[jacksonianmarch]

No way he accepts the QO. No chance

[Bellhorn04]

No way he accepts the QO. No chance

 

No kidding

[moonslav59]

No way he accepts the QO. No chance

 

I agree.

 

At least we get some compensation along with some budget space.

[notin]

Fox wasn't a fall guy so much as he was just injured and was released at the end of July. Saying Fox only blew 3 games is odd since he only pitched in 10 games before he was injured and Kim was brought in before Fox returned to the pen. It basically went Fox (injured) to Lyon (meh) to Kim.

 

Yes, the struggles were that every option in the pen kinda sucked. Kim and Timlin were the best of a mediocre bunch. But that kinda proves the point that you can't put out mediocre options and expect to have success. You need the big horses (aka Foulke) to anchor the pen. If the 2003 team had Foulke, they would have won the WS.

 

It is true it did more to prove you can't just simply fill your bullpen with retreads and pitchers who failed to make the rotation. You do need good pitchers in the bullpenand as many as possible. These guys are going to pitch close to 40% of the IP over the season.

 

Closers were popular among managers because they reduced doubt and made for easy press conferences, and popular with GMs because they were relatively cheap compared to starters. But last off-season, Wade Davis signed a contract worth almost 80% annually of what Darvish and Arrieta were making. The dedicated closer is moving rapidly into luxury, and it never really was a necessity.

 

Ideally, I'd rather see a "high leverage" guy who comes in and puts out a key fire in the seventh and eighth. However, if that specialty ever caught on, it too would become very overpriced. But over the course of a season it should lead to more wins. To me, there is nothing sillier than watching the lesser arms struggle with the top and/or heart of the order in the seventh and eighth innings, hoping they can get through so the Sox can get to the closer. I'd rather see him in there when i find myself hoping on the setup guys too much...

[mvp 78]

It is true it did more to prove you can't just simply fill your bullpen with retreads and pitchers who failed to make the rotation. You do need good pitchers in the bullpenand as many as possible. These guys are going to pitch close to 40% of the IP over the season.

 

Closers were popular among managers because they reduced doubt and made for easy press conferences, and popular with GMs because they were relatively cheap compared to starters. But last off-season, Wade Davis signed a contract worth almost 80% annually of what Darvish and Arrieta were making. The dedicated closer is moving rapidly into luxury, and it never really was a necessity.

 

Ideally, I'd rather see a "high leverage" guy who comes in and puts out a key fire in the seventh and eighth. However, if that specialty ever caught on, it too would become very overpriced. But over the course of a season it should lead to more wins. To me, there is nothing sillier than watching the lesser arms struggle with the top and/or heart of the order in the seventh and eighth innings, hoping they can get through so the Sox can get to the closer. I'd rather see him in there when i find myself hoping on the setup guys too much...

 

Yup. There's a difference between throwing s*** at the wall (Bailey/Hanrahan/Melancon/et al) that we've seen in the past and valuing the right players. If they wanted to overpay for Kimbrel and two other versatile arms in the pen, I would be hesitant to say it was a bad call.

 

However, as bullpens get more expensive, the Sox will have to maximize value elsewhere.

[harmony]

I agree.

 

At least we get some compensation along with some budget space.

If Craig Kimbrel declines a qualifying offer, the Red Sox are not precluded from re-signing their ace closer to different terms.

[Maxbialystock]

Love how Kimbrel came back for the save today. Nice.

[moonslav59]

If Craig Kimbrel declines a qualifying offer, the Red Sox are not precluded from re-signing their ace closer to different terms.

 

True, but the cost will be astronomical for a closer (IMO).

[Emp9]

It is true it did more to prove you can't just simply fill your bullpen with retreads and pitchers who failed to make the rotation. You do need good pitchers in the bullpenand as many as possible. These guys are going to pitch close to 40% of the IP over the season.

 

Closers were popular among managers because they reduced doubt and made for easy press conferences, and popular with GMs because they were relatively cheap compared to starters. But last off-season, Wade Davis signed a contract worth almost 80% annually of what Darvish and Arrieta were making. The dedicated closer is moving rapidly into luxury, and it never really was a necessity.

 

Ideally, I'd rather see a "high leverage" guy who comes in and puts out a key fire in the seventh and eighth. However, if that specialty ever caught on, it too would become very overpriced. But over the course of a season it should lead to more wins. To me, there is nothing sillier than watching the lesser arms struggle with the top and/or heart of the order in the seventh and eighth innings, hoping they can get through so the Sox can get to the closer. I'd rather see him in there when i find myself hoping on the setup guys too much...

 

It does seem silly, those times where you can use your best RP vs other team’s best part of their lineup, but don’t. I’m very open to the idea. Not so much for anytime before the 8th Inning though. It’s entirely possible if you use your Closer in the 7th, those very same batters could show up in the 9th depending on how things transpire.

[Kimmi]

I find it odd that one would use SV% as a knock against Kimbrel. O’brien was just saying last night before Kimbrel’s blown Save that his career SV% is the all time best in the game. It’s thee one attribute that seperates him from any other Closer.

 

I am not trying to knock Kimbrel. He is awesome. I am just adamantly against signing relief pitchers to big contracts.

 

My point with save percentage is that there are closers with save % just as good who are much cheaper.

[Bellhorn04]

I am not trying to knock Kimbrel. He is awesome. I am just adamantly against signing relief pitchers to big contracts.

 

My point with save percentage is that there are closers with save % just as good who are much cheaper.

 

But there are hardly any closers who consistently, reliably post the kind of save percentage that Kimbrel does.