A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[cp176]

Sale now is the part of his career when you want him on your team. But to assume he will still be able to pitch at this level as he ages and the injuries compile is very likely to make for a recipe of disaster for whoever meets his contract demands.

 

He's 30. He didn't make it though his age 30 season without some health hiccups. The Sox have him for age 31 season also. And this is the guy whose mechanics were always under scrutiny for when they would simply destroy his arm. His next contract could easily take him through age 38. Do you really think the Sox should invest $180 to $210 million in him?

 

So i just reread my post more closely than I did when i wrote it notin just for you. i don't think that I came close to implying that the Sox sign him to a 7 contract that pays him 180 to 210 at all. You embellish a tad which is ok - it is what you do. Now with all that being said, with respect to what starting pitchers are being paid today, I think that he is worth as much as any pitcher in the game. Regardless of what anyone thinks about his throwing motion, I think that based on his lack of injury history, it would be utterly ridiculous to simply assume that he is likely to be injured. We are all made differently. Even though, I fully understand that they all seem to get hurt from time to time. Now I don't know if the Sox will sign him or not, but if you are asking me if I think that at the age of 31 it is possible that he is worth what ever the going rate will be for a pitching ace - yup would be my answer. But what do I know right - we are getting one fine ace for one hell of a bargain right now. I hope that some day he breaks somebodies little piggy bank.

[moonslav59]

soxprospects.com just came out with their final year rankings...

 

1. Chavis

2. Casas +2

3. Groome +2

4. Dalbec +8

5. D. Hernandez +6

6. Houck -3

7. Mata -5

8. A. Flores +7

9, Chatham

10. Feltman +7

11. Decker

12. Shawaryn -5

13. Howlet

14. D. Diaz

15. J. Duran

16. Lakins +2

17. Ockimey -9

18. N. Northcut

19. A Scherff -6

20. G Jimenez

21. C Shugart

22. T-W Lin

23. Travis

24. Z. Scellenger

25. P. Castellanos

26. D Reyes

27. B Poyner

28. E Quiroz

29. J. Diaz

30. B Bello

 

[vegasbob]

Interesting to see Lin, Travis and Poyner so far down the list, given their MLB experience, but in reality, I don't think Lin nor Travis has much future potential with the Sox . Maybe bench players or trade supplements. Poyner could develop further and become more valuable.

 

Also missing for multi-million reasons is Castillo . Austin Maddox is not on this list I assume because he is no longer a prospect, but in a "DL" type neverland. Hope he makes a comeback . The BP could use another arm next year.

[notin]

So i just reread my post more closely than I did when i wrote it notin just for you. i don't think that I came close to implying that the Sox sign him to a 7 contract that pays him 180 to 210 at all. You embellish a tad which is ok - it is what you do. Now with all that being said, with respect to what starting pitchers are being paid today, I think that he is worth as much as any pitcher in the game. Regardless of what anyone thinks about his throwing motion, I think that based on his lack of injury history, it would be utterly ridiculous to simply assume that he is likely to be injured. We are all made differently. Even though, I fully understand that they all seem to get hurt from time to time. Now I don't know if the Sox will sign him or not, but if you are asking me if I think that at the age of 31 it is possible that he is worth what ever the going rate will be for a pitching ace - yup would be my answer. But what do I know right - we are getting one fine ace for one hell of a bargain right now. I hope that some day he breaks somebodies little piggy bank.

 

Like I said,this is the part of Sale’s career you want him on your team.

 

I wouldn’t say he has no injury history. He was just injured. And he had an elbow issue in Chicago that caused a quick shift to closer.

 

I think he will get paid heavily after next year, and I don’t think he’ll be very good for very long...

[moonslav59]

Interesting to see Lin, Travis and Poyner so far down the list, given their MLB experience, but in reality, I don't think Lin nor Travis has much future potential with the Sox . Maybe bench players or trade supplements. Poyner could develop further and become more valuable.

 

Also missing for multi-million reasons is Castillo . Austin Maddox is not on this list I assume because he is no longer a prospect, but in a "DL" type neverland. Hope he makes a comeback . The BP could use another arm next year.

 

Maddox is not on their "graduated list".

 

Travis and Poyner are 25. Lin is 23. They look at upside potential.

[moonslav59]

Like I said,this is the part of Sale’s career you want him on your team.

 

I wouldn’t say he has no injury history. He was just injured. And he had an elbow issue in Chicago that caused a quick shift to closer.

 

I think he will get paid heavily after next year, and I don’t think he’ll be very good for very long...

 

I think that's a reasonable opinion, but i also think there's a good chance he stays very good for maybe 4-5 more year.

[notin]

I think that's a reasonable opinion, but i also think there's a good chance he stays very good for maybe 4-5 more year.

 

When Sale does reach free agency, he will be roughly the same age Price was and probably looking for a similar deal. That leaves very strong potential for two Price’s on the roster.

 

Sale is a little better, being worth 19.1 fWAR the past three seasons. But Price was worth 17 fWAR at those same ages. But Price has been worth 8.7 fWAR in the three seasons since, 4.3 total in the last two...

[moonslav59]

When Sale does reach free agency, he will be roughly the same age Price was and probably looking for a similar deal. That leaves very strong potential for two Price’s on the roster.

 

Sale is a little better, being worth 19.1 fWAR the past three seasons. But Price was worth 17 fWAR at those same ages. But Price has been worth 8.7 fWAR in the three seasons since, 4.3 total in the last two...

 

I'm not saying I want to sign Sale to a similar deal as Price, but I do think he has a good chance at being very very good for a long time. (BTW, I thought the same about Price.)

[cp176]

Like I said,this is the part of Sale’s career you want him on your team.

 

I wouldn’t say he has no injury history. He was just injured. And he had an elbow issue in Chicago that caused a quick shift to closer.

 

I think he will get paid heavily after next year, and I don’t think he’ll be very good for very long...

 

i would liken his injuries in comparison to what many pitchers who have thrown as many innings as he has to my grandson when he falls off his bicycle. They have been minor. The obvious way to look at things is that as he grows older he will feel more pain. that is pretty normal I'd say. Suggesting that he is going to start a big time decline at the age of 31 is just an opinion based on what could be a flawed assumption. You mentioned David Price - who i like by the way - as a comparison yardstick. You can, I don't choose to. Chris Sale has been and likely will continue to be one of the very best pitchers in the game for at least a few (how many no one knows) more years. he isn't David Price. i think and hope that he will get paid heavily after next year and i think that he will be very good certainly for a few more years...

[cp176]

I'm not saying I want to sign Sale to a similar deal as Price, but I do think he has a good chance at being very very good for a long time. (BTW, I thought the same about Price.)

 

 

hey - how about that Moon - we agree. No one is going to argue with what statistics indicate happens to players as they age but every now and then someone does come along who shows us that the statistics are not always correct. Chris Sale could be one of those guys.

[cp176]

Oh and I almost forgot - Father Time seemed to miss the boat just a little with guy on the hill for the Astros tonight. For a guy his age, he seems to have held up fairly well. In many cases, age is what you want it to be - just a number.

[OH FOY]

On Radio last night they said Kershaw has lost 4 MPH on his fastball since 2016, you think he Opts. out now? I doubt it. Your catching most of these Free Agents, (the good ones), at the Start of their decline. A lot of innings, pitches. If Sale get 31 Million a year, all you can say is their is a fool born every minute. Especially if Shoulder is a problem. You'll start seeing teams wise up, these long term contracts, just don't work out anymore, especially for Pitchers, when they hit the 30 year old number. Teams will wait these guys out, so they get desperate, and sign later, at a Lower Rate and less years. Happened this year, Darvish and Arrieta. They have the money to wait it out, but they still don't want to lose a year of competing. That's how I see it going forward, at least for Pitchers. See how it goes with Harper, and Machado, might go same way too. Teams are wising up on FA's finally. Very, very little of Free Agent signings, are worth it anymore, especially long term contracts. 5+ years. Don't do it. Edited October 13, 2018 by OH FOY!

[cp176]

On Radio last night they said Kershaw has lost 4 MPH on his fastball since 2016, you think he Opts. out now? I doubt it. Your catching most of these Free Agents, (the good ones), at the Start of their decline. A lot of innings, pitches. If Sale get 31 Million a year, all you can say is their is a fool born every minute. Especially if Shoulder is a problem. You'll start seeing teams wise up, these long term contracts, just don't work out anymore, especially for Pitchers, when they hit the 30 year old number.

 

No one is arguing what you have said but i don't think that saying 31 million dollars per year for a top of the line pitcher currently at any age has any real meaning at all. There are extremely few professional athletes who represent bargains to me. They are all grossly overpaid with respect to the "real" money that I have to deal with and i'm not suffering. The rich owners are so rich (and I'm ok with that - It is their money and they have earned it) they obviously can pay just about anything for anybody. They are not likely to start doing business the way i have too with respect to the old budget. And yes, I really hope that Chris Sale gets his big payday. it may or may not be with Boston. IMO no entertainer is worth this type of money but he sure as hell is worth as much as any of them and will likely continue to be for awhile. hey for the record, in this country currently everybody likes to bitch about how well the rich are doing and how they are just getting richer but few seem to object to the gross over payment for the entertainers that we support. Guess its just boils down to what is important to society. Only in America I guess and I am damn glad that I am here.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

No one is arguing what you have said but i don't think that saying 31 million dollars per year for a top of the line pitcher currently at any age has any real meaning at all. There are extremely few professional athletes who represent bargains to me. They are all grossly overpaid with respect to the "real" money that I have to deal with and i'm not suffering. The rich owners are so rich (and I'm ok with that - It is their money and they have earned it) they obviously can pay just about anything for anybody. They are not likely to start doing business the way i have too with respect to the old budget. And yes, I really hope that Chris Sale gets his big payday. it may or may not be with Boston. IMO no entertainer is worth this type of money but he sure as hell is worth as much as any of them and will likely continue to be for awhile. hey for the record, in this country currently everybody likes to bitch about how well the rich are doing and how they are just getting richer but few seem to object to the gross over payment for the entertainers that we support. Guess its just boils down to what is important to society. Only in America I guess and I am damn glad that I am here.

 

Pro athletes are not overpaid. They are the best in the world and unlike hacks like Vin Diesel the have had to earn their way to the top by being better than others with actual head to head competition. Nobody seems to complain when The Rock made $64 million in 2015, money coming from his fans who see no reason not to spend their money watching his movies, when we know damned well there are 1,000 better actors currently waiting tables in LA alone. We also know damned well there are not 1,000 players as good as Clayton Kershaw waiting tables. You put that with the longevity of an athlete's career when compared to actors, tv personalities and musicians (Diddy made $130 mil in 2017, where is the outrage?) and there is nothing wrong what so ever with athlete's salaries.

 

You are worth exactly what someone is willing to pay you, be it an owner who gets paid by the fans or from the fans directly with the purchase of their concert tickets and music.

Edited October 13, 2018 by Yaz Fan Since '67

[Bellhorn04]

Pro athletes are not overpaid. They are the best in the world and unlike hacks like Vin Diesel the have had to earn their way to the top by being better than others with actual head to head competition. Nobody seems to complain when The Rock made $64 million in 2015, money coming from his fans who see no reason not to spend their money watching his movies, when we know damned well there are 1,000 better actors currently waiting tables in LA alone. We also know damned well there are not 1,000 players as good as Clayton Kershaw waiting tables. You put that with the longevity of an athlete's career when compared to actors, tv personalities and musicians (Diddy made $130 mil in 2017, where is the outrage?) and there is nothing wrong what so ever with athlete's salaries.

 

You are worth exactly what someone is willing to pay you, be it an owner who gets paid by the fans or from the fans directly with the purchase of their concert tickets and music.

 

Some good stuff here.

 

I do take issue with the definition of 'worth', though. Worth is kind of a tricky word. People pay for a lot of things that they think are worth it, only to find they've been ripped off. Some folks thought it was very worthwhile to hand their money to Bernie Madoff.

 

But when it comes to MLB free agency deals, you pays your money and you takes your chances.

[OH FOY]

No one is arguing what you have said but i don't think that saying 31 million dollars per year for a top of the line pitcher currently at any age has any real meaning at all. There are extremely few professional athletes who represent bargains to me. They are all grossly overpaid with respect to the "real" money that I have to deal with and i'm not suffering. The rich owners are so rich (and I'm ok with that - It is their money and they have earned it) they obviously can pay just about anything for anybody. They are not likely to start doing business the way i have too with respect to the old budget. And yes, I really hope that Chris Sale gets his big payday. it may or may not be with Boston. IMO no entertainer is worth this type of money but he sure as hell is worth as much as any of them and will likely continue to be for awhile. hey for the record, in this country currently everybody likes to bitch about how well the rich are doing and how they are just getting richer but few seem to object to the gross over payment for the entertainers that we support. Guess its just boils down to what is important to society. Only in America I guess and I am damn glad that I am here.

 

I don't care what they get paid, either. That's up to GM's and evaluators, and Owners giving the OK. I just think, its turning other way. Starting to see FA, is not the way to go to build a solid, long lasting team. Nothing to me personally, just stating I think long term contracts for big bucks, is a failure.

I don't think, my post had any personal feelings about this.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Some good stuff here.

 

I do take issue with the definition of 'worth', though. Worth is kind of a tricky word. People pay for a lot of things that they think are worth it, only to find they've been ripped off. Some folks thought it was very worthwhile to hand their money to Bernie Madoff.

 

But when it comes to MLB free agency deals, you pays your money and you takes your chances.

 

I'm not sure you can compare hiring a person with investing with a money manager. Two different things. When you hire someone you are determining their value with the size of the contract.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not sure you can compare hiring a person with investing with a money manager. Two different things.

 

But you're paying the guy big fees to invest your money, aren't you?

[notin]

i would liken his injuries in comparison to what many pitchers who have thrown as many innings as he has to my grandson when he falls off his bicycle. They have been minor. The obvious way to look at things is that as he grows older he will feel more pain. that is pretty normal I'd say. Suggesting that he is going to start a big time decline at the age of 31 is just an opinion based on what could be a flawed assumption. You mentioned David Price - who i like by the way - as a comparison yardstick. You can, I don't choose to. Chris Sale has been and likely will continue to be one of the very best pitchers in the game for at least a few (how many no one knows) more years. he isn't David Price. i think and hope that he will get paid heavily after next year and i think that he will be very good certainly for a few more years...

 

While Sale and Price are certainly different people, it's not a "flawed assumption" that Sale wlll decline in the near future. It's an extremely likely reality with the only question being "when". The evidence is in nearly ever pitcher ever.

 

Really, with Sale, if you want him back after 2019, you have to be prepared that he will start to decline in 2020. It's not the type of contract DD should enter under complete denial that Sale will last for 7 years, which I doubt any GM has ever had that denial in a long term deal. If they did, the deals would be structured differently.

 

4-5 good years? Define good. He isn't not going to be a 6 fWAR pitcher at age 35. And at some point in his next deal, he is gong to be a heavily paid mediocrity. really, what it comes down to is, will the good years be enough to justify the bad ones?..

[notin]

No one is arguing what you have said but i don't think that saying 31 million dollars per year for a top of the line pitcher currently at any age has any real meaning at all. There are extremely few professional athletes who represent bargains to me. They are all grossly overpaid with respect to the "real" money that I have to deal with and i'm not suffering. The rich owners are so rich (and I'm ok with that - It is their money and they have earned it) they obviously can pay just about anything for anybody. They are not likely to start doing business the way i have too with respect to the old budget. And yes, I really hope that Chris Sale gets his big payday. it may or may not be with Boston. IMO no entertainer is worth this type of money but he sure as hell is worth as much as any of them and will likely continue to be for awhile. hey for the record, in this country currently everybody likes to bitch about how well the rich are doing and how they are just getting richer but few seem to object to the gross over payment for the entertainers that we support. Guess its just boils down to what is important to society. Only in America I guess and I am damn glad that I am here.

 

It's not about how rish Henry is or how he spends his money. At least you didn't go straight for the most ignorant defense of all "why are you trying to save Henry's money?"

 

I care how much Sale or any Sox player gets paid because it effects how much they cna pay other players. And with no farm giving the Sox minim wage players to offset big salalries, it might come down to an either or with Sale or Bogaerts or Sale or Betts in the near future.

 

You might be OK letting Bogearts walk to keep Sale, and you probably aren't alone. But what about Betts?

[Bellhorn04]

While Sale and Price are certainly different people, it's not a "flawed assumption" that Sale wlll decline in the near future. It's an extremely likely reality with the only question being "when". The evidence is in nearly ever pitcher ever.

 

Really, with Sale, if you want him back after 2019, you have to be prepared that he will start to decline in 2020. It's not the type of contract DD should enter under complete denial that Sale will last for 7 years, which I doubt any GM has ever had that denial in a long term deal. If they did, the deals would be structured differently.

 

4-5 good years? Define good. He isn't not going to be a 6 fWAR pitcher at age 35. And at some point in his next deal, he is gong to be a heavily paid mediocrity. really, what it comes down to is, will the good years be enough to justify the bad ones?..

 

Some guys do pitch well into their mid-30's - Verlander, Greinke, Lester being some current examples.

 

Certainly the odds are agin it.

[notin]

Some guys do pitch well into their mid-30's - Verlander, Greinke, Lester being some current examples.

 

Certainly the odds are agin it.

 

Lester has been declining for years. Greinke is declining as well, although less steadily and quickly than Lester.

 

Verlander is the weird exception - he is dominating in his late 30s, but he actually was nowhere near as good in his early 30s...

[cp176]

While Sale and Price are certainly different people, it's not a "flawed assumption" that Sale wlll decline in the near future. It's an extremely likely reality with the only question being "when". The evidence is in nearly ever pitcher ever.

 

Really, with Sale, if you want him back after 2019, you have to be prepared that he will start to decline in 2020. It's not the type of contract DD should enter under complete denial that Sale will last for 7 years, which I doubt any GM has ever had that denial in a long term deal. If they did, the deals would be structured differently.

 

4-5 good years? Define good. He isn't not going to be a 6 fWAR pitcher at age 35. And at some point in his next deal, he is gong to be a heavily paid mediocrity. really, what it comes down to is, will the good years be enough to justify the bad ones?..

 

Your assumption certainly is flawed when you paint everyone with the same broad brush. Age catches up with all of us but you seem to think that there might be some magical age that clearly delineates some sort of timeline. It is always a game of chance. I think that Sale may hold up longer than you seem to think that he will.

[cp176]

It's not about how rish Henry is or how he spends his money. At least you didn't go straight for the most ignorant defense of all "why are you trying to save Henry's money?"

 

I care how much Sale or any Sox player gets paid because it effects how much they cna pay other players. And with no farm giving the Sox minim wage players to offset big salalries, it might come down to an either or with Sale or Bogaerts or Sale or Betts in the near future.

 

You might be OK letting Bogearts walk to keep Sale, and you probably aren't alone. But what about Betts?

 

 

At least i didn't go for what? An ignorant defense of trying to save henry's money? Get a little more specific with me notin. Try to bedazzle me with a bit more of your genius. We have done this dance before - I'm ok with it.

[notin]

At least i didn't go for what? An ignorant defense of trying to save henry's money? Get a little more specific with me notin. Try to bedazzle me with a bit more of your genius. We have done this dance before - I'm ok with it.

 

Yes.

 

I'm praising you for at least not going there. I see expensive players as potential resource drains on a limited budget, but too many times when I say that, the only return accusation is that I'm trying to save Henry's money. My only concern with Henry's money is that I know its finite.

 

I'm not trying/hoping to save Henry'd money. I'm trying/hoping to keep the Killer B's intact...

[cp176]

Yes.

 

I'm praising you for at least not going there. I see expensive players as potential resource drains on a limited budget, but too many times when I say that, the only return accusation is that I'm trying to save Henry's money. My only concern with Henry's money is that I know its finite.

 

I'm not trying/hoping to save Henry'd money. I'm trying/hoping to keep the Killer B's intact...

 

Ok then - i take anything i said that could be interpreted as minor league nastiness back. lol

I really don't disagree with you all that much about this. Just kind doing a little poking. What I would say and I mean sincerely - I like not only what Chris Sale has done but the way he approaches this game as well as the kind of teammate that he is. He is beyond tough physically and mentally. I truly hope that he gets the payday the market indicates that he deserves. When you think about the dolts that have been grossly overpaid when reaching his age, it makes me cringe. I hope that Boston can afford him but if he gets paid somewhere else oh well - we move on.

[sk7326]

It's not about how rish Henry is or how he spends his money. At least you didn't go straight for the most ignorant defense of all "why are you trying to save Henry's money?"

 

I care how much Sale or any Sox player gets paid because it effects how much they cna pay other players. And with no farm giving the Sox minim wage players to offset big salalries, it might come down to an either or with Sale or Bogaerts or Sale or Betts in the near future.

 

You might be OK letting Bogearts walk to keep Sale, and you probably aren't alone. But what about Betts?

 

(it is an ownership choice if this is a real either/or)

[Bellhorn04]

(it is an ownership choice if this is a real either/or)

 

But if JH simply says to DD, 'OK Dave, you've got $XXX to spend this year', then it's up to DD to choose how best to allocate it.

[notin]

Ok then - i take anything i said that could be interpreted as minor league nastiness back. lol

I really don't disagree with you all that much about this.

 

My initial thoughts are Dombrowski will agree with you and not me...

[notin]

But if JH simply says to DD, 'OK Dave, you've got $XXX to spend this year', then it's up to DD to choose how best to allocate it.

 

And DD’s decisions today do impact his decisions tomorrow...