A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[moonslav59]

Given that we have Pedroia on the roster and he may be able to give us games next year, a platoon of Pedroia/Holt/Nunez makes sense, so we could forego Kinsler.

 

I agree, but if we plan on that happening, we'll likely have to find the next "kinsler" mid season.

[notin]

I agree, but if we plan on that happening, we'll likely have to find the next "kinsler" mid season.

 

Unless Pedroia is the next Kinsler.

 

Kinsler got injured and had a .604OPS. I think at the very least, we can get that from Pedroia...

[oldtimer]

I did mention catcher in another post.

 

While I do think we need to try and upgrade the bottom of our order, I'm fine with Leon & Vaz next year. I love their defense and the intangibles they bring to our staff.

 

If we can pick up a catcher that can quickly create the same comfort level with our starters AND hit over .700, fine, but that will be very costly, and would likely force us to not upgrade in areas I think need more help:

 

Pen

 

2B

 

RH'd hitter (1B)

 

I'd also put starting pitcher depth ahead of upgrading our catching position, but I don't think we have enough resources to go down to our 4th and 5th priorities (actually 5th and 6th, because we need at least 2 RP'ers with Kimbrel and Kelly leaving.

 

I think we wait until the season starts to find a SP'er. I think we go with the catchers we have.

 

We could let 2B ride and hope for the best. There's a lot of wannabees and an outside chance Pedey returns:

 

Pedey

Nunez

Holt

Marco Hernandez

Lin

Quiroz

 

We could trade Moreland and move Devers to 1B and then take one or two from Nunez, Holt, Lin and Hernandez out of the 2B mix or use 3-4 guys to rotate among the 2 positions.

 

We could use Devers at 3B vs RHPs and 1B vs LHPs, and then just have to use Nunez at 3B vs LHPs. Lot's of possibilities.

 

If we want to be a strong contender next year, we can't lose Kimbrel and not improve significantly elsewhere. I don't think CF is the place. Our 2B, 1B and even 3B is by far the weakest offensive position beyond catcher. We have to have faith in Devers. He's our only real hope for a big in-house infusion or improvement over this year's team, whether it be at 3B, 1B or even DH, if we trade JBJ.

 

I have very little faith in Chavis, Dalbec or Ockimey helping us in 2020 and beyond, and near zero hopes for 2019 with those 3. Travis is a pipe dream. We got nothin' on the farm to help us in 2019.

 

We have to make do with shrewd moderate signings and maybe a strategic trade. We can hope DD comes through, again, on mid season deals.

 

No choices look easy. We could sign Dozier, and he could suck or Pedey could come back strong and force an issue.

 

We could try to go large at 1B with someone like Abreu, but at what cost?

 

We could try to acquire another ace or solid #2 starter like Carrasco, but again, at what cost (JBJ & ERod?)

 

We could look for mid-range guys like Eovaldi, Pearce and the Cody Allens of the world, but that's not going to make up for losing Kimbrel and Kelly.

 

 

The Yankees Robertson is a FA. He is a smallish guy and 32 years old but was impressive against us. He is currently also earning $13 mil so probably out of reach. Would be nice to weaken the Yankees and they are picking up our guys.

 

I do like Eovaldi and ho Good pe we at least try and keep him in the fold. Is he durable? Good question to ask but is anyone throwing close to 100 mph that durable. Not many Nolan Ryans around.

[moonslav59]

Unless Pedroia is the next Kinsler.

 

Kinsler got injured and had a .604OPS. I think at the very least, we can get that from Pedroia...

 

Yes, waiting at 2B is probably what we'll do, unless we find out early that Pedey is done.

 

We'll probably wait at SP'er as we find out about Wright, Johnson, Velazquez and maybe even Shawaryn as they all fight to win Pom/Eovaldi's slot.

 

1B will likely see Moreland vs RHPs and some platoon pick-up to add.

 

Devers will have the 3B job with Nunez and Holt looking to win time at 3b and 2B.

 

I'm not for changing out a catcher, but many here want to up our offense from that slot.

 

It's like all our weakest areas (maybe weaker but not weak) may be put on hold, except for the pen, which need at least a couple significant upgrades.

[moonslav59]

The Yankees Robertson is a FA. He is a smallish guy and 32 years old but was impressive against us. He is currently also earning $13 mil so probably out of reach. Would be nice to weaken the Yankees and they are picking up our guys.

 

I do like Eovaldi and ho Good pe we at least try and keep him in the fold. Is he durable? Good question to ask but is anyone throwing close to 100 mph that durable. Not many Nolan Ryans around.

 

I think Eovaldi grabs a big check elsewhere. Robertson might be too costly for his age.

 

I think we go less expensive and maybe go quantity over quality...maybe.

[notin]

I think Eovaldi grabs a big check elsewhere. Robertson might be too costly for his age.

 

I think we go less expensive and maybe go quantity over quality...maybe.

 

Garret Richards!!

[moonslav59]

Garret Richards!!

 

Big health gamble, but he should be cheaper than many others.

[moonslav59]

Repost:

 

Here's how 2019 looks with MLBTR's arb estimates included:

 

In Luxury Tax Dollars

31.1 David Price

22.0 JD Martinez

20.1 Rick Porcello

18.7 Mookie Betts

13.8 Dustin Pedroia

13.5M Chris Sale

11.9 Xander Bogaerts

7.9 Jackie Bradley Jr.

6.5 Mitch Moreland

5.0 Eduardo Nunez (with PA bonus reached)

4.8 Eduardo Rodriguez

4.5 Christian Vazquez

3.4 Brock Holt

2.3 Tyler Thornburg

2.3 Sandy Leon

1.5 Matt Barnes

1.4 Brandon Workman

1.4 Steven Wright

1.2 Heath Hembree

1.1 Carson Smith

1.1 Blake Swihart

 

$172M Total (21 players)

 

$2.2M Min for 4 MLB roster players

 

$2.2M 15 players in minor leagues on 40 man roster

 

$14.5M Player Benefits

 

$18.5M Sandoval

 

$209M Total

 

That's exactly the CB Threshold next year, so if we want to reset, we'll have to trade equal salary to what we add. My guess is, it depends on winning a ring or not this year, but after 2020, we will try to reset one way or another.

 

If we try to stay below the $40M line, what can we get for $39M?

[iortiz]

Sandoval is killing us. Thanks Ben.

[moonslav59]

Sandoval is killing us. Thanks Ben.

 

His fat ass is blocking the light at the end of the tunnel!

[Larry Cook]

Repost:

 

Here's how 2019 looks with MLBTR's arb estimates included:

 

In Luxury Tax Dollars

31.1 David Price

22.0 JD Martinez

20.1 Rick Porcello

18.7 Mookie Betts

13.8 Dustin Pedroia

13.5M Chris Sale

11.9 Xander Bogaerts

7.9 Jackie Bradley Jr.

6.5 Mitch Moreland

5.0 Eduardo Nunez (with PA bonus reached)

4.8 Eduardo Rodriguez

4.5 Christian Vazquez

3.4 Brock Holt

2.3 Tyler Thornburg

2.3 Sandy Leon

1.5 Matt Barnes

1.4 Brandon Workman

1.4 Steven Wright

1.2 Heath Hembree

1.1 Carson Smith

1.1 Blake Swihart

 

$172M Total (21 players)

 

$2.2M Min for 4 MLB roster players

 

$2.2M 15 players in minor leagues on 40 man roster

 

$14.5M Player Benefits

 

$18.5M Sandoval

 

$209M Total

 

That's exactly the CB Threshold next year, so if we want to reset, we'll have to trade equal salary to what we add. My guess is, it depends on winning a ring or not this year, but after 2020, we will try to reset one way or another.

 

If we try to stay below the $40M line, what can we get for $39M?

 

Pedroia needs to retire.

[moonslav59]

Pedroia needs to retire.

 

That would help, but we'll still be tight, We should have given Pablo the same type last-year option we gave HRam.

[moonslav59]

We could maybe trade...

 

$6.5M Moreland

$5.0M Nunez

$4.5M Vaz

$2.3M Thornburg

$1.1M Smith

 

That's $19.4M but with more minor roles to fill- maybe from within ...

Moreland/Pearce> Chavis/Ockimey/Travis/Dalebec

Nunez> Holt/Hernandez/Chavis/Dalbec/Lin/Quiroz/Pedey

Vaz> Swihart

Thronburg & Smith gave us nothing to have to replace.

 

Use the $19M to sign Garret Richards & Jeurys Familia. Is this enough to strongly compete?

 

Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod, Richards, Johnson, Velazquez

Familia, Barnes, Brazier, Wright, Hembree, Workman, Poyner

 

1. Betts RF

2. Pedey/Holt 2B

3. Beni LF/Bogey SS

4. JD DH

5. Bogey SS/ Beni LF

6. Devers/Holt/Chavis/Hernandez 3B

7. Chavis/Ockimey (rule 5)/Holt 1B

8. JBJ CF

9. Leon/Swihart C

 

This assuming we look to reset the tax. (Big assumption)

 

[moonslav59]

Houston does not seem as pumped up as last year.

 

I'm hoping we take 2 in Boston, but let's start with game one.

 

Isn't it great to have a healthy and strong...

 

Chris Freakin' Sale!

[oldtimer]

We could maybe trade...

 

$6.5M Moreland

$5.0M Nunez

$4.5M Vaz

$2.3M Thornburg

$1.1M Smith

 

That's $19.4M but with more minor roles to fill- maybe from within ...

Moreland/Pearce> Chavis/Ockimey/Travis/Dalebec

Nunez> Holt/Hernandez/Chavis/Dalbec/Lin/Quiroz/Pedey

Vaz> Swihart

Thronburg & Smith gave us nothing to have to replace.

 

Use the $19M to sign Garret Richards & Jeurys Familia. Is this enough to strongly compete?

 

Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod, Richards, Johnson, Velazquez

Familia, Barnes, Brazier, Wright, Hembree, Workman, Poyner

 

1. Betts RF

2. Pedey/Holt 2B

3. Beni LF/Bogey SS

4. JD DH

5. Bogey SS/ Beni LF

6. Devers/Holt/Chavis/Hernandez 3B

7. Chavis/Ockimey (rule 5)/Holt 1B

8. JBJ CF

9. Leon/Swihart C

 

This assuming we look to reset the tax. (Big assumption)

 

 

Here we are going into the ALCS and havinng a conversation about next year and beyond. I am guilty of the same type of thinking, but really would rather talkk about the next week and the current team until we either win it all or fall out along the way. We have an interesting team now so I will avoid the temptation to prognosticate further on where we go after this year plays out.

[moonslav59]

Here we are going into the ALCS and havinng a conversation about next year and beyond. I am guilty of the same type of thinking, but really would rather talkk about the next week and the current team until we either win it all or fall out along the way. We have an interesting team now so I will avoid the temptation to prognosticate further on where we go after this year plays out.

 

I hear you, but the MLBTR arb estimates just came out, and I couldn't resist.

[Bellhorn04]

Houston does not seem as pumped up as last year.

 

They just destroyed Cleveland in 3, outscoring them 21-6. Good thing they weren't pumped up! LOL

[moonslav59]

They just destroyed Cleveland in 3, outscoring them 21-6. Good thing they weren't pumped up! LOL

 

I meant more about the city. (I live in Sugar Land.)

 

Many Astros players are doing worse or much worse than last year. Only a tiny few are doing better.

[notin]

Sandoval is killing us. Thanks Ben.

 

Sandoval comes off the books in time for Bogaerts and Sale's free agency, which is when the Sox need him gone by...

[moonslav59]

Sandoval comes off the books in time for Bogaerts and Sale's free agency, which is when the Sox need him gone by...

 

It would be nice to have that budget space for 2019 as well, but it's nice to see the end getting nearer.

[Bellhorn04]

I meant more about the city. (I live in Sugar Land.)

 

Many Astros players are doing worse or much worse than last year. Only a tiny few are doing better.

 

You're talking about offense only. Their pitching had vast improvements, and as a result their run differential was higher than 2017, from +196 to +263.

[cp176]

Here we are going into the ALCS and havinng a conversation about next year and beyond. I am guilty of the same type of thinking, but really would rather talkk about the next week and the current team until we either win it all or fall out along the way. We have an interesting team now so I will avoid the temptation to prognosticate further on where we go after this year plays out.

 

They are interesting plus they are focused and very determined I've said right from the beginning that the team has done a great job with the types of players that they have brought in as well as the types of players that they have gotten rid of. We haven't heard much but what we have heard is that these guys like each other and to a player support each other. I like that. Alex Cora is certainly partly responsible for this. I think that he has a pretty good idea of the types of guys he wants on the roster. This is far more important to me than any in game decisions that he might make.

[moonslav59]

You're talking about offense only. Their pitching had vast improvements, and as a result their run differential was higher than 2017, from +196 to +263.

 

They have an impressive team, and adding Cole (plus Verlander for a full season) has made a big difference. Also, their pen improved.

 

Here's a 2017>2018 starting pitcher comp... (Listed in order of most GS'd in 2017)

 

5.22 Fiers>> COLE>>2.52 (32 GS/ 200 IP)

3.62 Morton> 3.13 (30 GS/167 IP)

2.90 Keuchel > 3.74 (34 GS/205 IP)

4.25 McCullers> 3.86 (22 GS/ 128 IP)

3.00 Peacock> 1 GS

4.77 Musgrove >>>VALDEZ> 2.19

3.55 McHugh

6.52 Paulino

1.06 Verlander > 2.52 (34 GS/214 IP)

 

Notice how they have 4 starters with 30+ GS'd and 3 with 200+ IP.

 

Maybe they will tire, like ours did last year.

 

[moonslav59]

Here's a look at the Astros pen from 2017 to 2018 listed in order of most relief innings in 2017)

 

WHIP

0.942 Devenski (81 IP)> 1.169 (45)

1.037 K Giles (62)>1.272 (31)

1.344 Gregerson (61)>>>McHugh> 0.912 (72)

1.318 J Hoyt (49)>>>Rondon> 1.322 (59)

1.563 M Feliz (48)>>>J Smith> 1.007 (46)

0.971 W Harris (45)> 1.094 (57)

1.393 T Sipp (37)> 1.034 (39)

1.555 F Martes (37)>>> Pressley .0600 (23)

0.862 Musgrove (31)>>> Osuna 0.882 (23)

1.033 Peacock (20)>>>F Valdez 0.947 (13)

[kenmeister]

Sandoval comes off the books in time for Bogaerts and Sale's free agency, which is when the Sox need him gone by...

 

Sale is a tough one. He's going to ask for $30 million plus, but he seems to have problems pitching at a high level throughout a full season.

[moonslav59]

Sale is a tough one. He's going to ask for $30 million plus, but he seems to have problems pitching at a high level throughout a full season.

 

I think this post season may tell us a lot.

 

He's probably best used as a 170-180 IP starter, but it's hard to pull a guy early when he's doing so well.

[cp176]

For what it's worth, everybody wishes they had an athlete like Chris Sale. He is as tough as they come. He is a focused dedicated teammate destined for the Hall of Fame. He comes with no ******** attached to him as well. He speaks for the team and the types of players that they have brought in. At 75% of full strength he is still top of the line. He is a pitcher who right now just happens to be able to throw the ball upwards of 95 mph. When someday his velocity slows, which it likely will, he will still be really really good. he is a power pitcher who already knows how to pitch.

[notin]

For what it's worth, everybody wishes they had an athlete like Chris Sale. He is as tough as they come. He is a focused dedicated teammate destined for the Hall of Fame. He comes with no ******** attached to him as well. He speaks for the team and the types of players that they have brought in. At 75% of full strength he is still top of the line. He is a pitcher who right now just happens to be able to throw the ball upwards of 95 mph. When someday his velocity slows, which it likely will, he will still be really really good. he is a power pitcher who already knows how to pitch.

 

Sale now is the part of his career when you want him on your team. But to assume he will still be able to pitch at this level as he ages and the injuries compile is very likely to make for a recipe of disaster for whoever meets his contract demands.

 

He's 30. He didn't make it though his age 30 season without some health hiccups. The Sox have him for age 31 season also. And this is the guy whose mechanics were always under scrutiny for when they would simply destroy his arm. His next contract could easily take him through age 38. Do you really think the Sox should invest $180 to $210 million in him?

[moonslav59]

For what it's worth, everybody wishes they had an athlete like Chris Sale. He is as tough as they come. He is a focused dedicated teammate destined for the Hall of Fame. He comes with no ******** attached to him as well. He speaks for the team and the types of players that they have brought in. At 75% of full strength he is still top of the line. He is a pitcher who right now just happens to be able to throw the ball upwards of 95 mph. When someday his velocity slows, which it likely will, he will still be really really good. he is a power pitcher who already knows how to pitch.

 

Totally agree!

[moonslav59]

Sale now is the part of his career when you want him on your team. But to assume he will still be able to pitch at this level as he ages and the injuries compile is very likely to make for a recipe of disaster for whoever meets his contract demands.

 

He's 30. He didn't make it though his age 30 season without some health hiccups. The Sox have him for age 31 season also. And this is the guy whose mechanics were always under scrutiny for when they would simply destroy his arm. His next contract could easily take him through age 38. Do you really think the Sox should invest $180 to $210 million in him?

 

I hate to say it, but no. I might offer $155M/5 with a $25M option with a $5M buyout, so it's $$160M/5 or $180M/6, if we choose.