A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[Emp9]

I wonder what would happen if a robot umpire took a foul tip to it's brain chip.

 

But if it’s Roberto: https://youtu.be/G-Ufk1BSabI

 

... a foul tip to the brain chip may help.

[cp176]

someone show me the article/quote where JDM states he is upset with lack of OF playing time....

WitchHunt!

 

I agree with you here for sure. I don't like seeing these types of unfounded statements being made but it is what people do these days. People who cannot accept the fact that JD will be used in the outfield from time to time because it disagrees with their thinking, will probably want to believe something like this. Martinez, although having expressed an interest in playing in the field, hasn't appeared selfish to me at all. He appears to be exactly the type of player that we need.

[SoxnCycles]

Vegas speaks...

 

The Red Sox are favorites to advance against the Yankees in the ALDS, coming in at -145. While that’s not a big surprise, considering the Sox won 108 games this season, it speaks to the pressure they’re up against this month. Failing to advance to the ALCS for the third straight year would be a colossal underachievement, and likely lead to pressure being applied to Dave Dombrowski.

 

This season is the apex for the Red Sox, as crucial members of their core will become free agents for the next four years, beginning with Craig Kimbrel this winter. Their roster likely won’t be this good again for a long time.

 

In terms of World Series odds, the Red Sox are second, at 15/4. The defending World Series champion Astros are first at 7/2, and the Yankees check in at 6/1.

 

They were thisclose to using the "C" word. LOL

[moonslav59]

They were thisclose to using the "C" word. LOL

 

Kimbrel and maybe Perce are the only crucial core members reaching free agency. The window is still open for another year.

[S5Dewey]

Kimbrel and maybe Perce are the only crucial core members reaching free agency. The window is still open for another year.

 

I have the feeling that this is our best shot at the ring though. Mookie, Bogaerts and JDM are all having career years, JBJ has expelled his offensive demons, and we have what may be the best defensive outfield in baseball. While I can see potential improvements at 2B & 3B next year I can also see some regression from the four I mentioned.

 

I don't think next years is going to be any better than this year, and if the Yankees get a competent manager they could very well be the odds-on favorite in 2019.

[moonslav59]

I have the feeling that this is our best shot at the ring though. Mookie, Bogaerts and JDM are all having career years, JBJ has expelled his offensive demons, and we have what may be the best defensive outfield in baseball.

 

I agree. As much as last year seemed like almost everyone had down years, this one seems almost like the opposite.

 

 

While I can see potential improvements at 2B & 3B next year I can also see some regression from the four I mentioned.

 

We might see Betts & JD (or Bogey) drop 50 to 100 points, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Beni, Devers, JBJ or Vaz add 50 to 100.

 

We have a huge opportunity to gain 100-200 points at 3B, 2B and C and maybe 1B next year.

 

2018 Position OPS:

 

3B: .711

Devers is a career .760 hitter and has .850+ potential.

Nunez has a .747 OPS since 2015 and could go higher

 

2B: .658

Pedey's return could give us a huge lift here, but I'm not counting on it.

Nunez (.747 since 2015) and Holt's .774 OPS this year offer hope for a 100+ gain.

 

C: .533

Vaz is a career .632 hitter but was at .735 in 2017.

Leon is Leon, but even his career OPS (.626) is almost 100 points higher than .533.

 

1B: .794

Moreland is not likely to hit .894 next year, but maybe we can add a key piece here.

Chavis, Ockimey & Dalbec are long shots.

 

 

I don't think next years is going to be any better than this year, and if the Yankees get a competent manager they could very well be the odds-on favorite in 2019.

 

I think a lot will have to depend on what our budget will be next year and how we fill Kimbrel's shoes.

[notin]

I have the feeling that this is our best shot at the ring though. Mookie, Bogaerts and JDM are all having career years, JBJ has expelled his offensive demons, and we have what may be the best defensive outfield in baseball.

 

I agree. As much as last year seemed like almost everyone had down years, this one seems almost like the opposite.

 

 

While I can see potential improvements at 2B & 3B next year I can also see some regression from the four I mentioned.

 

We might see Betts & JD (or Bogey) drop 50 to 100 points, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Beni, Devers, JBJ or Vaz add 50 to 100.

 

We have a huge opportunity to gain 100-200 points at 3B, 2B and C and maybe 1B next year.

 

2018 Position OPS:

 

3B: .711

Devers is a career .760 hitter and has .850+ potential.

Nunez has a .747 OPS since 2015 and could go higher

 

2B: .658

Pedey's return could give us a huge lift here, but I'm not counting on it.

Nunez (.747 since 2015) and Holt's .774 OPS this year offer hope for a 100+ gain.

 

C: .533

Vaz is a career .632 hitter but was at .735 in 2017.

Leon is Leon, but even his career OPS (.626) is almost 100 points higher than .533.

 

1B: .794

Moreland is not likely to hit .894 next year, but maybe we can add a key piece here.

Chavis, Ockimey & Dalbec are long shots.

 

 

I don't think next years is going to be any better than this year, and if the Yankees get a competent manager they could very well be the odds-on favorite in 2019.

 

I think a lot will have to depend on what our budget will be next year and how we fill Kimbrel's shoes.

 

While I wouldn’t re-sign Kimbrel, I think Dombrowski will. For whatever it takes.

 

Pedroia is the 2B next year. Nunez is back as well. So is Holt. I doubt the Sox add anyone unless they think Pedroia isn’t going to make it.

 

3B is Devers. No one is or should be giving up on him yet. DD probably deals away Chavis or Dalbec or both in order to bolster this team someplace, possibly the rotation.

 

The Sox are more likely to subtract at catcher than add. But if they do add, Yasmani Grandal might be their sole venture into free agency. A defensively talented catcher who is among the game’s best sluggers at the position...

Edited October 5, 2018 by notin

[moonslav59]

While I wouldn’t re-sign Kimbrel, I think Dombrowski will. For whatever it takes.

 

Pedroia is the 2B next year. Nunez is back as well. So is Holt. I doubt the Sox add anyone unless they think Pedroia isn’t going to make it.

 

3B is Devers. No one is or should be giving up on him yet. DD probably deals away Chavis or Dalbec or both in order to bolster this team someplace, possibly the rotation...

 

It's not hard to imagine, without any additions, a 100 point gain at 3B, C and 2B and maybe 50 at 1B. That could take up any slack we lose from those having great years this year.

 

We might also see JBJ add 50- 100 points to his 2018 number. Beni could bust out.

 

I'm not sure DD brings Kimbrel back, although his history with pens might scare him into doing so.

[Emp9]

While I wouldn’t re-sign Kimbrel, I think Dombrowski will. For whatever it takes.

 

Pedroia is the 2B next year. Nunez is back as well. So is Holt. I doubt the Sox add anyone unless they think Pedroia isn’t going to make it.

 

3B is Devers. No one is or should be giving up on him yet. DD probably deals away Chavis or Dalbec or both in order to bolster this team someplace, possibly the rotation.

 

The Sox are more likely to subtract at catcher than add. But if they do add, Yasmani Grandal might be their sole venture into free agency. A defensively talented catcher who is among the game’s best sluggers at the position...

 

I could see keeping one of them for 1B eventually, but yeah I could also see them gone for better pitching.

[notin]

It's not hard to imagine, without any additions, a 100 point gain at 3B, C and 2B and maybe 50 at 1B. That could take up any slack we lose from those having great years this year.

 

We might also see JBJ add 50- 100 points to his 2018 number. Beni could bust out.

 

I'm not sure DD brings Kimbrel back, although his history with pens might scare him into doing so.

 

I think he’ll trade JBJ. Not sure who becomes the other outfielder or DH if it’s Martinez. Not like DD is a Castillo fan. Although he clearly is a Swihart fan, so that might be on the table, believe it or not. A Beni- Betts-Swihart outfield? Hmm...

[Bellhorn04]

I think he’ll trade JBJ. Not sure who becomes the other outfielder or DH if it’s Martinez. Not like DD is a Castillo fan. Although he clearly is a Swihart fan, so that might be on the table, believe it or not. A Beni- Betts-Swihart outfield? Hmm...

 

There are indications he's a JBJ fan too.

[moonslav59]

I think he’ll trade JBJ. Not sure who becomes the other outfielder or DH if it’s Martinez. Not like DD is a Castillo fan. Although he clearly is a Swihart fan, so that might be on the table, believe it or not. A Beni- Betts-Swihart outfield? Hmm...

 

We have so little depth in the OF, I'm not sure dealing JBJ is a viable choice, unless we sign a cheap OF'er.

 

I do not think Swihart is loved or a high use OF option.

[moonslav59]

There are indications he's a JBJ fan too.

 

Yes, and with JBJ's slow start, his arb number might not be too costly. Then again, that also increases his trade value and amount of teams that can afford him.

[Emp9]

We have so little depth in the OF, I'm not sure dealing JBJ is a viable choice, unless we sign a cheap OF'er.

 

I do not think Swihart is loved or a high use OF option.

 

I think Swi keeps the same role, but w/ more playing time.

[moonslav59]

I think Swi keeps the same role, but w/ more playing time.

 

Who plays less, so Swi plays more?

[notin]

There are indications he's a JBJ fan too.

 

Defintely true. He turned down at least two trades we know of, and neither was an insulting offer.

 

OTOH, he is rapidly running out of trade chips. The farm had no real breakout candidates this year that became a good one, and he is going to have to remove some salary while adding salary. JBJ, given his years of control, salary, and prety much a whol bunch of other factors - like him being a desirable player to acquire - does make him one of the better tade baits on the team if DD wants to get a missing key piece back...

[notin]

We have so little depth in the OF, I'm not sure dealing JBJ is a viable choice, unless we sign a cheap OF'er.

 

I do not think Swihart is loved or a high use OF option.

 

I would say it is possible. DD tried to move him out there before, although it didn't go so well physically.

 

Itg's not my top choice either. But I would say Swihart does appear to be athletic enough to handle a new role and his skillset might even play into being an everyday OF. I think there was a reason DD tried to move him to the OF before...

[moonslav59]

I think Swi keeps the same role, but w/ more playing time.

 

Here are some 2018 numbers we can hope to improve on next year...

Listed in order of most PAs

 

.717 JBJ 535 PAs- hopefully he can stay near .800 all 2019.

.677 Nunez 502- maybe give us .750 next year

.731 Devers 490- give us more PAs and .800+

.758 Moreland 459- last year we blamed the toe for the second half swoon.

.511 Leon 288- That's about as low as anyone can go and still play a lot.

.540 Vaz 269- More PAs and maybe closer to 2017's .735 would be nice

.613 Swihart 207- Needs to hit better to play more.

.708 HRam 195- Must all be replaced

.901 Pearce 165- One area we need to replace in kind

.604 Kinsler 143- Replacing the offense is easy- the defense, not so much (Pedey?)

.744 Lin 73- not likely he improves on this

.652 Travis 38/ .520 Phillips 27/ .322 Pedey 13- We'll see.

 

On the pitching side...

4.17 Johnson (99IP)- Some hope here

3.18 Velazquez 85- Hard to imagine a big improvement, except maybe with IP'd.

6.08 Pomeranz 74- Yipee!

4.39 Kelly 66- Not that hard to improve on

2.74 Kimbrel 62- This is priority #1.

3.65 Barnes 62- I'm hopeful here.

4.20 Hembree 60- Could see a gain here.

3.33 Eovaldi 54- Maybe Wright, Johnson and Velazquez can replace him.

3.27 Workman 41 - Maybe more innings next year

1.60 Brasier 34- Probably less quality but more quantity of IP'd.

5.63 Thornburg 24- Huge disappointing season.

3.22 Poyner 22- More innings expected here

7.41 Cuevas 17- maybe let go for rule 5's or free agents

3.69 Walden 15- Hard to know.

3.77 Smith 14- arb cost might force non-tender.

8.10 Scott 7- Hard to know.

(No Beeks 12.79 in 6.1 IP)

 

 

[moonslav59]

I would say it is possible. DD tried to move him out there before, although it didn't go so well physically.

 

It's not my top choice either. But I would say Swihart does appear to be athletic enough to handle a new role and his skillset might even play into being an everyday OF. I think there was a reason DD tried to move him to the OF before...

 

I'm not sure we have a lot of high priority slots to fill other than closer. We will have a need for set-up pitching and maybe 2B or 1B vs LHPs, but we may have enough budget space to fill all these needs without making a major trade. I can see us trading JBJ after 2019. We will be facing a much tougher budget, and JBJ will be going into his final arb year.

 

Maybe we sign Cody Allen, Pearce and a solid set-up man and roll the dice. We can make an in season trade or two, if needed.

[notin]

I'm not sure we have a lot of high priority slots to fill other than closer. We will have a need for set-up pitching and maybe 2B or 1B vs LHPs, but we may have enough budget space to fill all these needs without making a major trade. I can see us trading JBJ after 2019. We will be facing a much tougher budget, and JBJ will be going into his final arb year.

 

Maybe we sign Cody Allen, Pearce and a solid set-up man and roll the dice. We can make an in season trade or two, if needed.

 

Even with a record-setting team, do you see Trader Dave being so complacent as to grab ancillary pieces and only use the free agent market? This is a guy who went all in for Sale just one year after giving David Price one of the biggest contracts in history, and did so before Price's elbow issues.

 

He'll spend, but he won't keep the status quo elsewhere. And he probably shouldn't. The 2014 Red Sox defended their title by basically standing still and quickly became a last place team...

[moonslav59]

Even with a record-setting team, do you see Trader Dave being so complacent as to grab ancillary pieces and only use the free agent market? This is a guy who went all in for Sale just one year after giving David Price one of the biggest contracts in history, and did so before Price's elbow issues.

 

He'll spend, but he won't keep the status quo elsewhere. And he probably shouldn't. The 2014 Red Sox defended their title by basically standing still and quickly became a last place team...

 

I don't think signing Cody Allen, Pearce and a solid set-up man is "complacent."

 

I'm going on the assumption that we may have a budget about $35-39.9M over the luxury limit. That might allow for us to fill high priority needs with free agents and minor trades only. If we lose, all bets are off, and I think Henry will spend what is needed to make us the favorites for 2019.

 

I'm just not sure trading JBJ helps us, unless he's part of a package for someone like Carrasco AND DD signs a capable CF'er who will not be a (big) drop off from JBJ.

 

I don't disagree that it might happen, but I think the chances are much higher after 2019. If we win this year, we may look to retool and reset the tax, and maybe he could be dealt, so we can keep Betts or Bogey or both.

[S5Dewey]

 

I'm just not sure trading JBJ helps us, unless he's part of a package for someone like Carrasco AND DD signs a capable CF'er who will not be a (big) drop off from JBJ.

Which raises the question of, Who could DD sign for the same (or less) money who 1) wouldn't be a big drop off from JBJ's 2nd half this year and 2) is available? And if you can sign him for the same money why not just keep JBJ??

[moonslav59]

Which raises the question of, Who could DD sign for the same (or less) money who 1) wouldn't be a big drop off from JBJ's 2nd half this year and 2) is available? And if you can sign him for the same money why not just keep JBJ??

 

Leonys Martin.

 

Isn't Carrasco & Martin > JBJ & Brian Johnson?

 

Granted, we'll have to give more than JBJ and maybe martin costs more than JBJ next year, but that should be close.

Edited October 5, 2018 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Leonys Martin.

 

Isn't Carrasco & Martin > JBJ & Brian Johnson?

 

Granted, we'll have to give more than JBJ and maybe martin costs more than JBJ next year, but that should be close.

 

(Again, I'm for keeping JBJ, but there is reason to think about a trade.)

[moonslav59]

Could we get Carrasco for JBJ and 2 or 3 from Johnson, Velazquez, Chavis or Ockimey?

 

Would that plus signing Martin, Allen and Familia and adding Carrasco makes us better than this year? (No Kimbrel, Kelly or JBJ)

[Kimmi]

They were thisclose to using the "C" word. LOL

 

It's very real.....

 

Even Vegas knows it.

[devildavid]

Even with a record-setting team, do you see Trader Dave being so complacent as to grab ancillary pieces and only use the free agent market? This is a guy who went all in for Sale just one year after giving David Price one of the biggest contracts in history, and did so before Price's elbow issues.

 

He'll spend, but he won't keep the status quo elsewhere. And he probably shouldn't. The 2014 Red Sox defended their title by basically standing still and quickly became a last place team...

 

The 2014 team was one in transition with young players just emerging. It was not the same team as 2013.

[Bellhorn04]

The 2014 team was one in transition with young players just emerging. It was not the same team as 2013.

 

Not exactly the same team, but it was a case of standing still, since we made no acquisitions and went with what we had. The only real moves were to let Ellsbury and Drew go in favor of giving JBJ and Bogaerts their shot.

 

I didn't have any major issues with Ben for the 2014 season. It was the 2015 season where he really made a lot of questionable moves.

[moonslav59]

Not exactly the same team, but it was a case of standing still, since we made no acquisitions and went with what we had. The only real moves were to let Ellsbury and Drew go in favor of giving JBJ and Bogaerts their shot.

 

I didn't have any major issues with Ben for the 2014 season. It was the 2015 season where he really made a lot of questionable moves.

 

Here's a comp of 2013 vs 2014

 

Listed in order of most PAs or IP in 2013 (many of the smae players but vastly different numbers)

PA/OPS

2013> 2014

724/.787 Pedey 609/.712

636/.781 Ellsbury>> JBJ 423/.531

600/.959 Ortiz 602/.873

578/.842 Napoli 500/.789

536/.831 Nava 408>.706

532/.801 Vic 133/.685

501/.777 Drew 145/.685 & Bogey 594/.660

470/.804 Salty>> AJP 274/.633

374/.696 Middy 234/.522

366/.771 Gomes>246/.683

243/.885 Carp & 234/.785 Iggy>>> Holt 492/.711

 

As you can see, just about everyone did worse and many declines were not age related, but more out of injury or just off years. (Reminds me of 2017.)

 

(Our starters were all traded during the season)

IP/ERA

213/3.75 Lester 143/2.52 & Ranaudo 39/4.81

189/3.52 Lackey 137/3.60 & Kelly 61/4.11

171/4.57 Demp>> DLR 102/4.43

162/4.32 Doub> 59/6.07 & Webster 59/5.03

108/1.74 Buch> 170/ 5.34

65.1/4.04 Peavy> 124/4.72

 

74/1.09 Uehara> 64/ 2.52

68/3.16 Tazawa> 63/ 2.86

60/1.81 Breslow>> Badenhop 71>2.29

42/4.97 Workman> 87/5.17

37/4.86 Aceves>>>Mujica 60/ 3.90

31/2.64 A Miller> 42/ 2.34

29/3.77 Bailey> Wilson 28/ 1.91

[devildavid]

Not exactly the same team, but it was a case of standing still, since we made no acquisitions and went with what we had. The only real moves were to let Ellsbury and Drew go in favor of giving JBJ and Bogaerts their shot.

 

I didn't have any major issues with Ben for the 2014 season. It was the 2015 season where he really made a lot of questionable moves.

 

So it really wasn't standing still at all. It was the beginning of the transition to the young home grown players who are now the core of the team. They were stuck with players from the 2013 team who weren't part of the future and also weren't really assets to trade to get any real return. 2013 was unique season from a collection of players who had great performances that were not sustainable.