A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[moonslav59]

I was going to ask you not to pontificate, but that's actually pretty thorough. I think the Yankees are hurting, but agree with "biggest boom or bust potential." I like the Sox over the Astros--see W-L records--but can't disagree Houston is awfully good and maybe without weaknesses.

 

All that said, I still believe, fervently, that the postseason is unpredictable. I think all five AL teams have a shot at the WS. it's not just the playoff format. It's also that the very best AL team has a winning % of 69% and the 5th best team, Oakland, is at 60%. One team wins 6 of 10 games and the other 7 of 10. And head to head the Athletics took 4 of 6 from the Sox.

 

I'm thinking Cleveland has the biggest "boom or bust" quality. I know Bauer is hurt, but they have very good starters and relievers along with some big sluggers.

 

While the Astros have a nice rotation and starter depth, the depth is not so important in October. They have a lot of players with nagging injuries or in the midst of a down year (like us last year).

 

I'm more worried about these two teams than the Yanks, but that doesn't mean I don't respect the Yankees' possibilities.

 

I don't see the A's going far, despite how well they have played.

[harmony]

I'm thinking Cleveland has the biggest "boom or bust" quality. I know Bauer is hurt, but they have very good starters and relievers along with some big sluggers.

 

While the Astros have a nice rotation and starter depth, the depth is not so important in October. They have a lot of players with nagging injuries or in the midst of a down year (like us last year).

 

I'm more worried about these two teams than the Yanks, but that doesn't mean I don't respect the Yankees' possibilities.

 

I don't see the A's going far, despite how well they have played.

Even with the Red Sox 53 games above .500, the Yankees play in a division in which opposing teams have a cumulative .500 record.

 

The Athletics play in a division in which opposing teams have a cumulative record 28 games above .500.

 

The A's, who are 18-8 against AL East clubs, might have better record than the Yankees playing in the easier division.

[moonslav59]

Even with the Red Sox 53 games above .500, the Yankees play in a division in which opposing teams have a cumulative .500 record.

 

The Athletics play in a division in which opposing teams have a cumulative record 28 games above .500.

 

The A's, who are 18-8 against AL East clubs, might have better record than the Yankees playing in the easier division.

 

I doubt it, but point well-taken.

[kenmeister]

I'm thinking Cleveland has the biggest "boom or bust" quality. I know Bauer is hurt, but they have very good starters and relievers along with some big sluggers.

 

While the Astros have a nice rotation and starter depth, the depth is not so important in October. They have a lot of players with nagging injuries or in the midst of a down year (like us last year).

 

I'm more worried about these two teams than the Yanks, but that doesn't mean I don't respect the Yankees' possibilities.

 

I don't see the A's going far, despite how well they have played.

 

Beat me to it. I'm most concerned with Cleveland in the playoffs.

[moonslav59]

Beat me to it. I'm most concerned with Cleveland in the playoffs.

 

If Miller gets back to form, watch out!

[sk7326]

I'm thinking Cleveland has the biggest "boom or bust" quality. I know Bauer is hurt, but they have very good starters and relievers along with some big sluggers.

 

While the Astros have a nice rotation and starter depth, the depth is not so important in October. They have a lot of players with nagging injuries or in the midst of a down year (like us last year).

 

I'm more worried about these two teams than the Yanks, but that doesn't mean I don't respect the Yankees' possibilities.

 

I don't see the A's going far, despite how well they have played.

 

i'm worried about every team that qualifies - all it takes is a slightly better or slightly worse run of pitching.

[OH FOY]

Even with the Red Sox 53 games above .500, the Yankees play in a division in which opposing teams have a cumulative .500 record.

 

The Athletics play in a division in which opposing teams have a cumulative record 28 games above .500.

 

The A's, who are 18-8 against AL East clubs, might have better record than the Yankees playing in the easier division.

 

Agree with this.

[Kimmi]

i'm worried about every team that qualifies - all it takes is a slightly better or slightly worse run of pitching.

 

Agreed. The playoffs are too much of a crapshoot to take any team lightly.

 

On paper, the Astros and the Red Sox are the two best teams in baseball, with the Astros having a very slight edge.

 

I like our chances.

[MADSTORK]

How did u like Kelly Friday night vs the Stro’s?

[Emp9]

How did u like Kelly Friday night vs the Stro’s?

 

Everyone! Give it up for DJ Rhinophyma! Comin’ wit all the classics.

[Kimmi]

How did u like Kelly Friday night vs the Stro’s?

 

How do you like the Sox 97-46 record?

[moonslav59]

How do you like the Sox 97-46 record?

 

It's amazing a team can compile a record like that based solely on smoke & mirrors.

 

This clown just won't let go of his projection that this team sucks and is clinging to his one area he got right (or half right) on Barnes, Kelly & Hembree by conflating one with the other.

[oldtimer]

It's amazing a team can compile a record like that based solely on smoke & mirrors.

 

This clown just won't let go of his projection that this team sucks and is clinging to his one area he got right (or half right) on Barnes, Kelly & Hembree by conflating one with the other.

 

Our BP is made up of mainly fireballers that have maybe one other solid pitch. Probably not a lot different than many pens this year. I see that as a bit of a weakness and look to Wright and possibly Poyner to give us a little variation in what we can bring in. We still need to get a good look at our pen arms such as Wright and Poyner and possibly others before making the choice but being 6'4" or more and having a 100 mph fastball is not the only criteria for selecting relief pitchers.

[moonslav59]

Our BP is made up of mainly fireballers that have maybe one other solid pitch. Probably not a lot different than many pens this year. I see that as a bit of a weakness and look to Wright and possibly Poyner to give us a little variation in what we can bring in. We still need to get a good look at our pen arms such as Wright and Poyner and possibly others before making the choice but being 6'4" or more and having a 100 mph fastball is not the only criteria for selecting relief pitchers.

 

Assuming Sale, price, ERod & Porcello start the first 4 playoff games, we could have a radically different looking pen, and you are right about us getting a good look at these guys in their new roles. This could be our playoff pen (listed from most likely to least likely to make the pen roster):

 

Kimbrel

Eovaldi

Wright

Barnes (if healthy)

Brasier

Johnson or Velazquez (probably not both)

Thornburg (bubble, but he has done great vs lefties over his career)

 

Outside looking in as of now:

Velazquez or Johnson

Pomeranz

Workman

Poyner

Hembree

Kelly

Scott

Cuevas

 

[moonslav59]

Here is a position by position look at the top 3 contenders for this year's WS:

 

ERA-

 

Starter 1 (Assuming Bauer is out)

BOS 44 Sale

CLE 62 Kluber

HOU 67 Verlander

 

Starter 2

CLE 70 Clevinger

HOU 70 G Cole

BOS 80 Price

 

Starter 3

CLE 77 Carrasco

HOU 77 Morton

BOS 81 ERod

 

Starter 4

HOU 86 Keuchel

BOS 94 Porcello (Johnson 91)

CLE 104 Bieber

 

Pen

WHIP by Team

HOU 1.05 (77 xFIP-)

BOS 1.21 (92)

CLE 1.33 (96)

 

Offense by team OPS

Catcher

HOU .681

CLE .664

BOS .559

 

1B

BOS .778

HOU .744

CLE .726

 

2B

HOU .830

CLE .699

BOS .683

 

3B

CLE .977

HOU .899

BOS .692

 

SS

CLE .885

BOS .847

HOU .741

 

LF

BOS .853

CLE .767

HOU .709

 

CF

HOU .757

BOS .705

CLE .624

 

RF

BOS 1.061

HOU .741

CLE .722

 

DH

BOS .940

HOU .826

CLE .793

 

Defense by UZR/150

BOS 8.2

CLE 6.7

HOU -2.3

 

 

[Kimmi]

It's amazing a team can compile a record like that based solely on smoke & mirrors.

 

This clown just won't let go of his projection that this team sucks and is clinging to his one area he got right (or half right) on Barnes, Kelly & Hembree by conflating one with the other.

 

We have already surpassed last year's win total by 4 games, and we have 19 games remaining.

 

I'm good.

[Kimmi]

Our BP is made up of mainly fireballers that have maybe one other solid pitch. Probably not a lot different than many pens this year. I see that as a bit of a weakness and look to Wright and possibly Poyner to give us a little variation in what we can bring in. We still need to get a good look at our pen arms such as Wright and Poyner and possibly others before making the choice but being 6'4" or more and having a 100 mph fastball is not the only criteria for selecting relief pitchers.

 

I think bringing Wright into a game for 2 innings of middle relief could really help our late inning relievers.

[moonslav59]

I think bringing Wright into a game for 2 innings of middle relief could really help our late inning relievers.

 

...or 3 or 4 innings, if needed.

[Kimmi]

...or 3 or 4 innings, if needed.

 

Absolutely. Imagine, as an opposing batter, adjusting from 95 mph, to 65 mph, back to 95 mph in the same game.

[moonslav59]

Absolutely. Imagine, as an opposing batter, adjusting from 95 mph, to 65 mph, back to 95 mph in the same game.

 

Exactly, although Wright throws faster than that.

[Maxbialystock]

I think bringing Wright into a game for 2 innings of middle relief could really help our late inning relievers.

 

No, no, no, no, and no. I read it on last night's game thread. Cora was an idiot bringing in Wright in the 7th inning, and it is completely irrelevant that he went 2 and gave up 0 runs despite Philip's error (he never should have thrown in the first place) and Bogie's high throw home that Sandy miraculously turned into an out (with some help from the ump).

 

In other words, right now Wright has the right stuff when all those around him keep throwing the wrong stuff (or maybe just in the wrong place).

 

If Wright keeps this up, if Brasier can be Brasier again, if Kimbrel can stay Kimbrel, and if just 2 or 3 others will get their heads repositioned and pitch they way they are able to pitch, this bullpen just might work and reveal--once again--the amazing depth of this team. I like Poyner a lot.

[mvp 78]

No, no, no, no, and no. I read it on last night's game thread. Cora was an idiot bringing in Wright in the 7th inning, and it is completely irrelevant that he went 2 and gave up 0 runs despite Philip's error (he never should have thrown in the first place) and Bogie's high throw home that Sandy miraculously turned into an out (with some help from the ump).

 

In other words, right now Wright has the right stuff when all those around him keep throwing the wrong stuff (or maybe just in the wrong place).

 

If Wright keeps this up, if Brasier can be Brasier again, if Kimbrel can stay Kimbrel, and if just 2 or 3 others will get their heads repositioned and pitch they way they are able to pitch, this bullpen just might work and reveal--once again--the amazing depth of this team. I like Poyner a lot.

 

No, I really think bringing Wright into a game for 2 innings of middle relief could really help our late inning relievers.

[moonslav59]

No, no, no, no, and no. I read it on last night's game thread. Cora was an idiot bringing in Wright in the 7th inning, and it is completely irrelevant that he went 2 and gave up 0 runs despite Philip's error (he never should have thrown in the first place) and Bogie's high throw home that Sandy miraculously turned into an out (with some help from the ump).

 

In other words, right now Wright has the right stuff when all those around him keep throwing the wrong stuff (or maybe just in the wrong place).

 

If Wright keeps this up, if Brasier can be Brasier again, if Kimbrel can stay Kimbrel, and if just 2 or 3 others will get their heads repositioned and pitch they way they are able to pitch, this bullpen just might work and reveal--once again--the amazing depth of this team. I like Poyner a lot.

 

I'd like to see Wright go 3-4 innings every 3rd day, unless we think he can go 2 innings every other day.

[Bellhorn04]

I'd like to see Wright go 3-4 innings every 3rd day, unless we think he can go 2 innings every other day.

 

Pretty sure he can't go 3-4 innings every 3rd day.

[moonslav59]

Pretty sure he can't go 3-4 innings every 3rd day.

 

Maybe just 3.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Wright could, emphasis on the could part, be one solution to the set up problems. He hasn't allowed a run after he returned and got us to Kimbrel last night. I got over the concern of bring in a knuckle baller in the late inning with men on base in October with Tim Wakefield.

[moonslav59]

Wright could' date=' emphasis on the could part, be one solution to the set up problems. He hasn't allowed a run after he returned and got us to Kimbrel last night. I got over the concern of bring in a knuckle baller in the late inning with men on base in October with Tim Wakefield.[/quote']

 

Just bring him into clean innings, then.

 

I'm not too worried about men on base. Wright looks to be our best middle and long option right now.

 

Brasier looks to be our 8th inning guy.

 

Who-da-thunk this even as late as June or July?

[Bellhorn04]

Just bring him into clean innings, then.

 

I'm not too worried about men on base. Wright looks to be our best middle and long option right now.

 

 

The fact that you're saying this based on a 4 inning sample in which he allowed 4 hits, 2 walks and 1 HBP kind of shows how we're feeling about the pen right now.

[moonslav59]

The fact that you're saying this based on a 4 inning sample in which he allowed 4 hits, 2 walks and 1 HBP kind of shows how we're feeling about the pen right now.

 

Where did I ever say I based this on 4 IP. You know me better than that.

 

I've always been a big Wright fan (as a pitcher not a family man).

 

He has proven he is a very good pitcher time and time again. Yes, his recent 4 IP sample size has helped me determine he is healthy, and that's all I really need to know. Even if he lets up 3 ER next time, I'm still thinking he's our best middle/long man (or at least second to Eovaldi, who needs to prove himself more than Wright, IMO).

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Yeah I agree, Wright has been a very good pitchers since he got to Boston. But yes as we saw again last weekend going into October with the bullpen as it's been constructed is an invitation for an early exit. They need to change things, they don't have one guy any of us should trust in the 6th-8th innings of a tight playoff game. I trust Wright before most of those other guys, I don't want our playoff fate in the hands of Barnes, Kelly etc.

 

So last night I see a 0 next to the Red Sox score in the 5th inning and I just chuckle. They never seem to score in the early innings then they go off in the later innings. It's been remarkable and interesting to watch. Really enjoyed Brock Holt's homer last night. I love that guy.

Edited September 12, 2018 by Yaz Fan Since '67