A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[Emp9]

He didn't hire an agent to get a reasonable deal...

 

Ha!

[harmony]

Or he is ranked tied for fourth with Osuna and Miller, if you look at the values....

fWAR values rounded to the nearest tenth. Without the rounding Craig Kimbrel ranks sixth, as reflected in the dollar values:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&season=2018&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

[notin]

fWAR values rounded to the nearest tenth. Without the rounding Craig Kimbrel ranks sixth, as reflected in the dollar values:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&season=2018&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

Which tells me sometimes the folks at Fangraphs might struggle a bit with the concept of significant digits...

[Spudboy]

Not a prayer. He will set a new record for AAV from a reliever

 

So please tell me how many teams will be willing to shell out 80-100 mil for a relief pitcher.

 

It seems to me that the teams with the deep pockets are currently set a closer.

 

He won't get 20 mil per and he will not get 5 years.

 

Unless some gm fires up a bowl of meth.

[Spudboy]

Conceivably, you use the equal money it would have taken to get him, and you get someone(s) else (maybe younger). Plus, you get a draft choice.

 

It's hard to know that's a win-win ahead of time, of course.

 

That is all speculation.

 

Kimbrel's performance is reality.

[moonslav59]

That is all speculation.

 

Kimbrel's performance is reality.

 

If he keeps struggling, his level going forward may not be "reality".

 

The point is, if we need to pay him $19M x 5 years to keep him, he may not return that value.

 

We could use the $95M to sign a younger closer or a couple top set-up men.

 

I'm not saying I'd prefer that, but it is all speculation, at this point.

 

 

I'd love to have Kimbrel back, but paying any closer 1/11th or 1/12th of your payroll budget is not something I would like doing.

 

[Kimmi]

like war.

 

Correct.

 

WAR does an excellent job as a descriptive stat, not as good a job as a predictive stat.

 

That said, WAR (especially fWAR) is a better predictor than most other stats.

[Kimmi]

How is losing one of the best at his position a win?

 

We either get Kimbrel for a reasonable contract or we at least get some compensation when he walks.

 

Both options are preferable to re-signing Kimbrel to a huge contract.

[Kimmi]

I still feel Kimbrel can be had for a reasonable deal.

 

You may very well be right. You had a good point about Kimbrel wanting to stay in Boston for the medical attention that his daughter will need.

 

I hope you are right.

[Kimmi]

Not a prayer. He will set a new record for AAV from a reliever

 

If that's the case, then it's 'Thanks for your service, but so long'.

[Kimmi]

We'll see man. Joel Sherman had a pretty good column the other day about how 2018 should be scaring teams away from big money for relievers. Wade Davis and some of the others who got paid have struggled and Chapman and Jansen have concerning health issues.

 

And Kimbrel, let's face it, has had some concerning performance issues this year.

 

Big money contracts rarely work. Big money to relievers works even less.

[Kimmi]

Which tells me sometimes the folks at Fangraphs might struggle a bit with the concept of significant digits...

 

LOL That can't be possible.

[moonslav59]

Big money contracts rarely work. Big money to relievers works even less.

 

They just started getting paid big money, so the jury is still out.

 

Not off to a great start, though.

[oldtimer]

They just started getting paid big money, so the jury is still out.

 

Not off to a great start, though.

 

Pay them a lot, use them a lot, wear them down and then they lose their value. Long term contracts for pitchers in general don't make sense and for relievers less sense.

[cp176]

Pay them a lot, use them a lot, wear them down and then they lose their value. Long term contracts for pitchers in general don't make sense and for relievers less sense.

 

I agree with you that these types of contracts make no sense . (to us)

The owners with pockets this deep I don't think particularly care what the statistics say when the opportunity to sign a top of the rotation arm presents itself. Once again, this is a discussion that we have had. I don't see John Henry buying into the philosophy of not signing an ace because of fear that it might cost money on the back end of a contract. With respect to a top of the line closer, oh well, if he decides to pay the man I guess we will just have to accept it. I'm not going to question how he chooses to spend his money.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I want to find Leon's catcher ERA for the month of August -- does anyone know where I would find that info? Edited September 1, 2018 by Fan_since_Boggs

[moonslav59]

I want to find Leon's catcher ERA for the month of August -- does anyone know where I would find that info?

 

I'm not sure there's a place to find it. Someone would have to do it by hand.

 

The team ERA was 4.18 in August. Leon caught most of that.

 

Pitcher by Pitcher August ERA listed in order of most IP for the month:

 

5.11 Porcello

2.10 Price

5.27 Johnson

5.67 Eovaldi

3.15 Pomeranz

5.28 Velazquez

1.88 Workman

1.42 Kelly

1.50 Brasier

5.40 Thornburg

9.64 Barnes

6.48 Hembree

4.50 Kimbrel

0.00 Sale

[oldtimer]

I'm not sure there's a place to find it. Someone would have to do it by hand.

 

The team ERA was 4.18 in August. Leon caught most of that.

 

Pitcher by Pitcher August ERA listed in order of most IP for the month:

 

5.11 Porcello

2.10 Price

5.27 Johnson

5.67 Eovaldi

3.15 Pomeranz

5.28 Velazquez

1.88 Workman

1.42 Kelly

1.50 Brasier

5.40 Thornburg

9.64 Barnes

6.48 Hembree

4.50 Kimbrel

0.00 Sale

 

This is not directly related to Leon, but questions the whole idea of catcher ERA. If a pitcher, who turns out to be a ace has a favorite catcher, does that swing the catchers era in a favorable direction? Of course the ace might well like the catcher because he calls a terrific game. My point is that there are quite a few variables in comparing catcher ERA which might not be a good measure of value.

[moonslav59]

This is not directly related to Leon, but questions the whole idea of catcher ERA. If a pitcher, who turns out to be a ace has a favorite catcher, does that swing the catchers era in a favorable direction? Of course the ace might well like the catcher because he calls a terrific game. My point is that there are quite a few variables in comparing catcher ERA which might not be a good measure of value.

 

Your point highlights the way CERA should be used.

 

One can not just blindly look at each catcher's CERA on a team, you have to look at the pitcher by pitcher comps. Of course some comps will have wildly different sample size innings pitched that make some comps unreliable.

 

Here's a look at 2018 OPS against by pitcher:

 

(Only pitchers with 80+ PAs against listed)

 

Porcello

.700 w Leon (714 PAs)

N/A w Vazquez

N/A w Swihart

No Comp: Porcello has only been caught by Leon.

 

Price

.562 w Leon (232)

.780 w Vaz (394)

N/A w Swihart

Leon is the clear better choice w Price.

 

Sale

.497 w Leon (406)

.572 w Vaz (160)

N/A w Swihart

Leon is the better choice with Sale.

 

Rodriguez

.408 w Leon (43)

.687 w Vaz (401)

N/A w Swihart

Leon is the better choice, but the sample size differential is large.

 

Johnson

.683 w Leon (105)

.843 w Vaz (128)

.731 w Swihart (144)

Leon is slightly better than Swihart. Sample sizes all close to even.

 

Velazquez

.761 w Leon (83)

.738 w Vaz (134)

.818 w Swihart (83)

Vaz is slightly better than Leon. Sample sizes pretty close.

 

Pomeranz

.961 w Leon (93)

.948 w Vaz (127)

.723 w Swihart (72)

Swihart clearly does better with Pom.

 

Barnes

.591 w Leon (96)

.493 w Vaz (113)

1.049 w Swihart (33)

Vaz does better with Barnes.

 

Kelly

.886 w Leon (91)

.429 w Vaz (108)

.531 w Swihart (36)

Vaz does way better with Kelly than Leon. Swihart does well, too.

 

Hembree

.635 w Leon (84)

.748 w Vaz (107)

.657 w Swihart (34)

Leon does better than Vaz. Swihart does well.

 

Kimbrel

.587 w Leon (107)

.610 w Vaz (98)

(Just 6 PAs with Swihart .750)

Leon does slightly better than Vaz.

 

Wright

.396 w Leon (16)

.645 w Vaz (145)

(Just 4 PAs with Swihart 1.167)

Leon does better, but with way less PAs against.

 

Eovaldi

.703 w Leon (131)

N/A w Vaz

N/A w Swihart

No Comp

 

 

Workman

.856 w Leon (64)

.454 w Vaz (35)

.465 w Swihart (22)

Vaz does better. Swihart does well.

 

Thornburg

.744 w Leon (72)

N/A w Vaz

1.230 w Swihart (18)

Leon does better, but sample sizes are small.

 

Brasier

.480 w Leon (55)

N/A w Vaz

.358 w Swihart (23)

Swihart does better, but the sample sizes are small.

 

Overall, it looks like Leon does way better with our top 4 starters by PAs against with Porcello only using Leon as well.

 

8 pitchers do better with Leon

4 do better with Vaz

2 do better with Swihart

2 only are caught by Leon

 

For what it's worth, here are the overall CERA numbers:

 

3.27 w Leon

3.76 w Vaz

4.42 w Swihart

5.40 w Butler

 

Edited September 1, 2018 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

In August...

 

Our staff ERA jumps to 4.18 after being under 3.36 in 3 of the previous 4 months.

It is 3.61 on the season, which includes August.

 

Our staff WHIP jumps to 1.305 (season: 1.229).

 

Our staff OPS against jumps to .753 (season: .689).

 

Yet, we still go 18-9- pretty close to our yearly winning percentage.

 

Our bats came alive, mostly in short bursts as we are finding ways to do what we need to do to wrap up the division title and secure home field advantage.

 

Home vs Away

RPG

5.8 H

5.0 A

 

OPS

.836 H

.758 A

 

RPG Against

3.8 H

3.9 A

 

OPS Against

.689 H

.690A

 

Both our offense and our pitching/defense do better at home in all 4 major categories.

 

Winning %

.727 H

.643 A

[dgalehouse]

There is competition involved in putting a winning team on the field. It is possible to build one on the cheap , but much easier to pay what it takes to get the top talent. This leads to the big contracts that may not look too good in the long run. To know whether this is worth it , we would need to know the bottom line numbers. How much profit is reaped by having a top team ? What is the profit differential between the best teams , the pretty good teams and the bottom rung ? How much is it worth to the franchise value to have a perennial top contender ? We don't have all this information . But we all would like to be the brilliant G.M. who builds a championship team at the lowest possible cost. We also would want to be the G.M. with the sold out ballpark , not the one with all the empty seats on an August night. Not easy to do.

[moonslav59]

There is competition involved in putting a winning team on the field. It is possible to build one on the cheap , but much easier to pay what it takes to get the top talent. This leads to the big contracts that may not look too good in the long run. To know whether this is worth it , we would need to know the bottom line numbers. How much profit is reaped by having a top team ? What is the profit differential between the best teams , the pretty good teams and the bottom rung ? How much is it worth to the franchise value to have a perennial top contender ? We don't have all this information . But we all would like to be the brilliant G.M. who builds a championship team at the lowest possible cost. We also would want to be the G.M. with the sold out ballpark , not the one with all the empty seats on an August night. Not easy to do.

 

I'm pretty sure some of the poorer teams see that even when they win, the money does not go up enough to pay more for better players needed to win.

 

I remember when the Celtics did not even sell out in some big games.

 

The Pirates did not sell out their WS games.

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox have called up five players: first base/outfielder Sam Travis, left-handers Bobby Poyner and Robby Scott, right-hander William Cuevas and infielder Tzu-Wei Lin.

 

When players come off rehab, our September roster might look like this...

 

19 Pitchers

Sale

Price

Porcello

ERod

Eovaldi

Johnson

Wright

Velazquez

 

Kimbrel

Barnes

Kelly

Hembree

Brasier

Pomeranz

Workman

Thornburg

Poyner

Scott

Cuevas

 

16 Position Players

Leon

Vaz

Swihart

 

Moreland

Pearce

Travis

 

Kinsler

Holt

 

Bogaerts

Lin

 

Devers

Nunez

 

Benintendi

Bradley

Betts

Martinez

 

Possible further call-ups

Haley

Shepherd

Walden

Renda

 

 

Not on 40 man roster:

Shawaryn

Lakins

Gorst

Butler

Phillips

 

 

Edited September 1, 2018 by moonslav59

[vegasbob]

It's September 1, 26 games to go , a 7.5 game lead. 9 of the 26 are against other division leaders ( not terribly meaningful based on their comparative records ), but they are teams the Red Sox could meet later in the playoffs. The other 6 games are against NYY who is also a very possible first round opponent. The other 11 games are scattered among the current White Sox series, the Orioles and the Mets. The Braves series in Atlanta precludes 3 games with the DH operable. The one conclusion you can draw is that Boston will win the ALE and have the best overall record, even with a 13-13 finish.

 

The major area of concern, starting and bullpen pitching, is far less certain. Here's some reality--- You cannot predict how or for how long Chris Sale can perform at a top level. He may be great or back to the trainer's room. David Price may or may not be affected by the shot to his left hand. Could be a great #2 or revert to disabled. Porcello provides no clue, only a negative trend based on 3 recent starts. Erod--- If Sale and Price are unknowns due to injury, why would Erod's return be predictable. At a minimum he needs to get back to speed and try to stretch out to 6 innings potential. Eovaldi is Jake Peavy in other clothing. I'm sure he tries but has not shown any consistency , except another negative trend over multiple starts . Velazquez and Brian Johnson generally do what is asked but are marginal guys, not the core of your playoff plans. So the conclusion is that on Sept 1, the starting pitching for the best winning record in baseball is a total crapshoot. They could win it all with health returning and a turnaround in the trending. Steven Wright could make an unexpected but huge contribution if he can get his knuckleball working well, but again it's more wishing and hoping than knowing.

 

The bullpen may be more settled than the starters. Start with Kimbrel as the given and despite some recent misses, he is still your go to closer who is expected to perform well. Brasier, if he maintains his good work seems to be reliable in getting outs. Joe Kelly, maybe is in a positive trend but still unpredictable game to game. Barnes and Hembree did not have good August's . Who knows with these two ?

Eovaldi going to the pen ? Tell me what that does based on his recent throwing, another Barnes/Hembree ? Thornburg shows very little and may not be usable except for mopup . Workman is another ???

 

I want them to win it all as much as the next guy, but some of the posts about the pitching as a strength right now, leave me wondering.

[Bellhorn04]

It's September 1, 26 games to go , a 7.5 game lead. 9 of the 26 are against other division leaders ( not terribly meaningful based on their comparative records ), but they are teams the Red Sox could meet later in the playoffs. The other 6 games are against NYY who is also a very possible first round opponent. The other 11 games are scattered among the current White Sox series, the Orioles and the Mets. The Braves series in Atlanta precludes 3 games with the DH operable. The one conclusion you can draw is that Boston will win the ALE and have the best overall record, even with a 13-13 finish.

 

The major area of concern, starting and bullpen pitching, is far less certain. Here's some reality--- You cannot predict how or for how long Chris Sale can perform at a top level. He may be great or back to the trainer's room. David Price may or may not be affected by the shot to his left hand. Could be a great #2 or revert to disabled. Porcello provides no clue, only a negative trend based on 3 recent starts. Erod--- If Sale and Price are unknowns due to injury, why would Erod's return be predictable. At a minimum he needs to get back to speed and try to stretch out to 6 innings potential. Eovaldi is Jake Peavy in other clothing. I'm sure he tries but has not shown any consistency , except another negative trend over multiple starts . Velazquez and Brian Johnson generally do what is asked but are marginal guys, not the core of your playoff plans. So the conclusion is that on Sept 1, the starting pitching for the best winning record in baseball is a total crapshoot. They could win it all with health returning and a turnaround in the trending. Steven Wright could make an unexpected but huge contribution if he can get his knuckleball working well, but again it's more wishing and hoping than knowing.

 

The bullpen may be more settled than the starters. Start with Kimbrel as the given and despite some recent misses, he is still your go to closer who is expected to perform well. Brasier, if he maintains his good work seems to be reliable in getting outs. Joe Kelly, maybe is in a positive trend but still unpredictable game to game. Barnes and Hembree did not have good August's . Who knows with these two ?

Eovaldi going to the pen ? Tell me what that does based on his recent throwing, another Barnes/Hembree ? Thornburg shows very little and may not be usable except for mopup . Workman is another ???

 

I want them to win it all as much as the next guy, but some of the posts about the pitching as a strength right now, leave me wondering.

 

You generally do need some luck and unexpected stuff to go your way to win it all.

 

Just for one example, in 2004 Derek Lowe was a playoff hero after a horrible season with a 5.42 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP.

[notin]

You generally do need some luck and unexpected stuff to go your way to win it all.

 

Just for one example, in 2004 Derek Lowe was a playoff hero after a horrible season with a 5.42 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP.

 

It’s not often you see a player banished from the rotation, only to return for the ALCS

[moonslav59]

While our pitching has looked suspect, having Sale, ERod & Wright out, and Pom being totally unreliable pretty much all year, we've done very well. 18-9 in August.

 

With ERod & Sale returning and possibly Wright, too, and even Pom showing faint signs of recovering from whatever messed him up, we might see our pitching return to top 3 form.

 

Our pen will be strengthened by an infusion of arms from the rotation and farm call-ups.

 

I'm hopeful our staff just had a hiccup (perhaps at maybe the best time we could ask for) and will now come through when it counts.

[moonslav59]

I know some might consider this blasphemy, but has anybody else noticed Lester ain't the same Lester he was the first two years with the Cubs?

 

2015-2016

30-17 2.89 (3.19 FIP/ 1.07 WHIP)

 

2017-2018

27-13 4.03 (4.41 FIP/ 1.32 WHIP)

 

I still wish we kept him, and the whole contract offer fiasco was Ben's lowest hour, but as the contract has played out, worries about long term deals seem to be carrying some weight.

 

(Note: the Lester of 2017-2018 is still pretty damn good.)

 

 

[vegasbob]

I know some might consider this blasphemy, but has anybody else noticed Lester ain't the same Lester he was the first two years with the Cubs?

 

2015-2016

30-17 2.89 (3.19 FIP/ 1.07 WHIP)

 

2017-2018

27-13 4.03 (4.41 FIP/ 1.32 WHIP)

 

I still wish we kept him, and the whole contract offer fiasco was Ben's lowest hour, but as the contract has played out, worries about long term deals seem to be carrying some weight.

 

(Note: the Lester of 2017-2018 is still pretty damn good.)

 

 

 

I would take Jon Lester's competitive attitude at anytime but his performance this year may be indicative of what happens in late stages of career. Good luck to Jon, as long as we don't meet the Cubs in the WS. That would be a classic.

[Emp9]

Your point highlights the way CERA should be used.

 

One can not just blindly look at each catcher's CERA on a team, you have to look at the pitcher by pitcher comps. Of course some comps will have wildly different sample size innings pitched that make some comps unreliable.

 

Here's a look at 2018 OPS against by pitcher:

 

(Only pitchers with 80+ PAs against listed)

 

Porcello

.700 w Leon (714 PAs)

N/A w Vazquez

N/A w Swihart

No Comp: Porcello has only been caught by Leon.

 

Price

.562 w Leon (232)

.780 w Vaz (394)

N/A w Swihart

Leon is the clear better choice w Price.

 

Sale

.497 w Leon (406)

.572 w Vaz (160)

N/A w Swihart

Leon is the better choice with Sale.

 

Rodriguez

.408 w Leon (43)

.687 w Vaz (401)

N/A w Swihart

Leon is the better choice, but the sample size differential is large.

 

Johnson

.683 w Leon (105)

.843 w Vaz (128)

.731 w Swihart (144)

Leon is slightly better than Swihart. Sample sizes all close to even.

 

Velazquez

.761 w Leon (83)

.738 w Vaz (134)

.818 w Swihart (83)

Vaz is slightly better than Leon. Sample sizes pretty close.

 

Pomeranz

.961 w Leon (93)

.948 w Vaz (127)

.723 w Swihart (72)

Swihart clearly does better with Pom.

 

Barnes

.591 w Leon (96)

.493 w Vaz (113)

1.049 w Swihart (33)

Vaz does better with Barnes.

 

Kelly

.886 w Leon (91)

.429 w Vaz (108)

.531 w Swihart (36)

Vaz does way better with Kelly than Leon. Swihart does well, too.

 

Hembree

.635 w Leon (84)

.748 w Vaz (107)

.657 w Swihart (34)

Leon does better than Vaz. Swihart does well.

 

Kimbrel

.587 w Leon (107)

.610 w Vaz (98)

(Just 6 PAs with Swihart .750)

Leon does slightly better than Vaz.

 

Wright

.396 w Leon (16)

.645 w Vaz (145)

(Just 4 PAs with Swihart 1.167)

Leon does better, but with way less PAs against.

 

Eovaldi

.703 w Leon (131)

N/A w Vaz

N/A w Swihart

No Comp

 

 

Workman

.856 w Leon (64)

.454 w Vaz (35)

.465 w Swihart (22)

Vaz does better. Swihart does well.

 

Thornburg

.744 w Leon (72)

N/A w Vaz

1.230 w Swihart (18)

Leon does better, but sample sizes are small.

 

Brasier

.480 w Leon (55)

N/A w Vaz

.358 w Swihart (23)

Swihart does better, but the sample sizes are small.

 

Overall, it looks like Leon does way better with our top 4 starters by PAs against with Porcello only using Leon as well.

 

8 pitchers do better with Leon

4 do better with Vaz

2 do better with Swihart

2 only are caught by Leon

 

For what it's worth, here are the overall CERA numbers:

 

3.27 w Leon

3.76 w Vaz

4.42 w Swihart

5.40 w Butler

 

 

Solid post here. Thanks Moon