A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[dgalehouse]

Our goal has to be getting Rodriguez and sale back healthy and pitching well for the playoffs.

 

I think Devers adds a ton of value, if healthy. His hitting is really needed now, but not if his defense is compromised.

 

It would be so nice to have a healthy Vazquez back as well, but I wonder if the hitting will suffer for the rest of the year. Broken fingers injuries always linger.

 

Vazquez is batting .213 , with 3 homers and a .548 OPS . Can his hitting suffer any more than that?

[moonslav59]

Vazquez is batting .213 , with 3 homers and a .548 OPS . Can his hitting suffer any more than that?

 

He had a good month before going down hurt.

[moonslav59]

Day off, Sale and ERod returning soon, each OF'er got a day off from the turf in the Trop, I think we're primed for a nice winning stretch, again.

[Maxbialystock]

Day off, Sale and ERod returning soon, each OF'er got a day off from the turf in the Trop, I think we're primed for a nice winning stretch, again.

 

Meh. The good guys not only lost 3 straight at the Trop, they did so in a very convincing way in terms of not being able to hit good pitching. On top of that, since the five straight wins, Aug 10-14 vs. Orioles and Phillies, the Sox are 4-7 and now lead the Yankees by 6 with 30 games to play. One can only hope that 2011 does not repeat itself.

 

More to the point, it sure looks as though jacksonianmarch is right and that the Sox are great at feeding on carrion, but not so great against teams at .500 or better.

 

I do think we win the AL East, but now have doubts about the postseason unless we can play a team with a horrible pitching staff. Unfortunately, none of the teams--NYY, Cleveland, Houston, Oakland, Seattle--likely to be in the postseason have horrible pitching staffs.

[moonslav59]

Meh. The good guys not only lost 3 straight at the Trop, they did so in a very convincing way in terms of not being able to hit good pitching. On top of that, since the five straight wins, Aug 10-14 vs. Orioles and Phillies, the Sox are 4-7 and now lead the Yankees by 6 with 30 games to play. One can only hope that 2011 does not repeat itself.

 

More to the point, it sure looks as though jacksonianmarch is right and that the Sox are great at feeding on carrion, but not so great against teams at .500 or better.

 

I do think we win the AL East, but now have doubts about the postseason unless we can play a team with a horrible pitching staff. Unfortunately, none of the teams--NYY, Cleveland, Houston, Oakland, Seattle--likely to be in the postseason have horrible pitching staffs.

 

We've done very well vs many of the leagues best pitchers.

 

Most teams, including the Yanks, struggle vs good pitching. It's natural.

 

To me, it bugs me more when we lose to unknown pitchers than good ones like Snell.

 

Yes, we will face better pitching once we reach the playoffs, but so will the Yanks, Stros, Guardians and A's.

 

I'd hate to have to face Sale twice in a series. I'm glad we don't have to do so.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports....

 

As of Saturday, Red Sox pitchers had a 3.08 ERA when Sandy Leon was catching, compared to a 3.84 ERA with another catcher. Leon’s game-calling and defensive abilities have made him a favorite of the Sox rotation, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald writes, and the team hasn’t lost a beat with Leon taking the bulk of playing time with Christian Vazquez on the DL. Mastrodonato’s piece also delves into Leon’s early development as a player, and how his quick grasp of English helped him easily learn how to work with pitchers

[moonslav59]

How about the NL Wild Card (and some division) race?

 

76-53 Cubs

73-57 ATL

72-58 AZ

 

73-58 STL (-4.0 NLC)

73-59 MIL (-4.5 NLC)

 

-1.0 71-59 COL (-1.0 NLW)

-2.0 70-60 PHI (-3.0 NLE)

-2.5 70-61 LAD (-2.5 NLW)

[Maxbialystock]

MLBTR reports....

 

As of Saturday, Red Sox pitchers had a 3.08 ERA when Sandy Leon was catching, compared to a 3.84 ERA with another catcher. Leon’s game-calling and defensive abilities have made him a favorite of the Sox rotation, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald writes, and the team hasn’t lost a beat with Leon taking the bulk of playing time with Christian Vazquez on the DL. Mastrodonato’s piece also delves into Leon’s early development as a player, and how his quick grasp of English helped him easily learn how to work with pitchers

 

I pretty much buy the CERA theory even though a lot can depend on which catcher gets to catch which starter.

 

In the case of Sandy Leon, I believe I see a smart catcher at work, and for exhibit A would refer to Price's last start, vs. the Guardians, when he threw 8 innings of shutout ball with 3 hits, 0 walks, and 7 K's. What I saw on my screen was Price relying heavily on his fastball and cut fastball. I saw very few changeups, sliders, or curves. Normally, usually, I would condemn such an approach, but that night it worked I think because Price had great command of the two pitches he used the most. I would further argue, that, if I'm right about what pitches Price threw that night--mostly fastballs and cut fastballs--only an experienced, confident, and insightful catcher would have done that. I also know that Sale is having a great year and has not refused any pitch Leon has called.

 

I have absolutely no way of telling if Sandy is great framing pitches. In fact, I don't honestly see it--that our pitchers get more calls than opposing pitchers when Sandy is our catcher. But I do honestly feel that he has a rare intelligence and feel for pitching that makes him our best defensive catcher. If he is the best, I don't really care about his hitting. Well, not much anyway.

[OH FOY]

Machado is hitting .266 since Trade, and Kemp. .201 since All-Star break. Dodgers in trouble.

[moonslav59]

I pretty much buy the CERA theory even though a lot can depend on which catcher gets to catch which starter.

 

In the case of Sandy Leon, I believe I see a smart catcher at work, and for exhibit A would refer to Price's last start, vs. the Guardians, when he threw 8 innings of shutout ball with 3 hits, 0 walks, and 7 K's. What I saw on my screen was Price relying heavily on his fastball and cut fastball. I saw very few changeups, sliders, or curves. Normally, usually, I would condemn such an approach, but that night it worked I think because Price had great command of the two pitches he used the most. I would further argue, that, if I'm right about what pitches Price threw that night--mostly fastballs and cut fastballs--only an experienced, confident, and insightful catcher would have done that. I also know that Sale is having a great year and has not refused any pitch Leon has called.

 

I have absolutely no way of telling if Sandy is great framing pitches. In fact, I don't honestly see it--that our pitchers get more calls than opposing pitchers when Sandy is our catcher. But I do honestly feel that he has a rare intelligence and feel for pitching that makes him our best defensive catcher. If he is the best, I don't really care about his hitting. Well, not much anyway.

 

The best way to use CERA is to look at the numbers with each pitcher one-by-one. That way, it takes way the fact that some pitchers have pretty much their own caddy-catcher.

 

Pitch-framing is measure somewhere. I'm not sure where the numbers are, but I think Leon has been consistently plus in that area.

 

I agree on the "feel for pitching" aspect of his game, something that cannot be measured by data. Pitcher just love pitching to him, and that can't be bad, can it?

[moonslav59]

... Dodgers in trouble.

 

Isn't it wonderful?

[Slasher9]

I also know that Sale is having a great year and has not refused any pitch Leon has called.

 

good call. then again, Sale has also never shook off the following stellar/All star / HOF pitch callers:

Bryan Anderson

Alex Avila

Ramon Castro

Tyler Flowers

Donny Lucy

Omar Narvaez

Dioner Navarro

Josh Phegley

AJ Pierzynski

and of course Christian Vazquez

[Bellhorn04]

good call. then again, Sale has also never shook off the following stellar/All star / HOF pitch callers:

Bryan Anderson

Alex Avila

Ramon Castro

Tyler Flowers

Donny Lucy

Omar Narvaez

Dioner Navarro

Josh Phegley

AJ Pierzynski

and of course Christian Vazquez

 

Somebody has to ask it...

 

You're saying Sale has never shaken off a single pitch call in his career?

[Slasher9]

Somebody has to ask it...

 

You're saying Sale has never shaken off a single pitch call in his career?

 

The no-shake approach dates prior to his time with the White Sox, back to a conversation he had in his college days about the value of where he throws — not what.

 

“It’s never what pitch, it’s the location,” Sale said Saturday. “Not to get too in depth, but you can watch BP and guys get themselves out on a 60 mph an hour fastball right down the middle. So I figure it’s more important the location than it is the pitch that I’m throwing.”

 

Florida Golf Coast Universit coach Dave Tollett said that's his program's philosophy.

 

"Throw every pitch with intent," Tollett said Saturday night by phone. "And if you hit the right spot, we should be good. ... We still do the same thing and we’ve had success.

[vegasbob]

MLBTR reports....

 

As of Saturday, Red Sox pitchers had a 3.08 ERA when Sandy Leon was catching, compared to a 3.84 ERA with another catcher. Leon’s game-calling and defensive abilities have made him a favorite of the Sox rotation, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald writes, and the team hasn’t lost a beat with Leon taking the bulk of playing time with Christian Vazquez on the DL. Mastrodonato’s piece also delves into Leon’s early development as a player, and how his quick grasp of English helped him easily learn how to work with pitchers

 

That's one thing about living in the U.S,, things go better with a little skill in the English language . It doesn't even have to be your first language , just have enough to communicate and learn something about where you are. Always surprised when foreign born players seem to have virtually no English abilities.

[Slasher9]

But perhaps the most incredible aspect of Sales existence is so subtle few have taken the time to soak it in. He hasnt called one of his own pitches in six years.

[moonslav59]

But perhaps the most incredible aspect of Sales existence is so subtle few have taken the time to soak it in. He hasnt called one of his own pitches in six years.

 

One of the biggest arguments against CERA and related debates is that catcher don't really tell the pitchers what to pitch, since they can always shake 'em off. While that's true to some extent, even guys not like Sale go with what the catcher calls more times than not. Keeping opposing batters guessing, off stride or distracted in some way is something impossible to measure with numbers. Pitch framing and blocking wild throws is just part of the whole CERA debate.... maybe a small part.

[Maxbialystock]

But perhaps the most incredible aspect of Sales existence is so subtle few have taken the time to soak it in. He hasnt called one of his own pitches in six years.

 

I didn't know that, but now I believe it. He is smart enough to know to focus on execution.

[Maxbialystock]

That's one thing about living in the U.S,, things go better with a little skill in the English language . It doesn't even have to be your first language , just have enough to communicate and learn something about where you are. Always surprised when foreign born players seem to have virtually no English abilities.

 

Funny thing, but I happen to agree about the value of English. I know it sounds like prejudice, but it's what binds us together as a country. Since I taught it for 3 years, I also happen to think it's a pretty darn good language, which plenty of people around the globe of chosen to learn how to speak (or their parents and/or teachers browbeat them into learning) and read. I am, however, a little more tolerant of Japanese players because of the vast differences between their language and ours. But, if you are Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Thai, Honduran, Tibetan, Nepalese, Arab, or whatever, and you want to live and work in this country and maybe become a citizen, you need to learn English.

[notin]

Funny thing, but I happen to agree about the value of English. I know it sounds like prejudice, but it's what binds us together as a country. Since I taught it for 3 years, I also happen to think it's a pretty darn good language, which plenty of people around the globe of chosen to learn how to speak (or their parents and/or teachers browbeat them into learning) and read. I am, however, a little more tolerant of Japanese players because of the vast differences between their language and ours. But, if you are Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Thai, Honduran, Tibetan, Nepalese, Arab, or whatever, and you want to live and work in this country and maybe become a citizen, you need to learn English.

 

Well, not really.

 

The US has no official language (an amendment to make English our official language was introduced in 1981 but never ratified).

 

And in the past couple decades, the US has certainly become more accommodating for Spanish-speaking citizens to the point where most government offices and many businesses have bilingual signs. I could foresee this happening with another language, although who knows which one will be next...

[Kimmi]

Day off, Sale and ERod returning soon, each OF'er got a day off from the turf in the Trop, I think we're primed for a nice winning stretch, again.

 

That's the spirit!

[bkzwhitestrican]

Well, not really.

 

The US has no official language (an amendment to make English our official language was introduced in 1981 but never ratified).

 

And in the past couple decades, the US has certainly become more accommodating for Spanish-speaking citizens to the point where most government offices and many businesses have bilingual signs. I could foresee this happening with another language, although who knows which one will be next...

 

While I don't think learning English should be a requirement for living and working in the U.S., it certainly would be beneficial. Almost every higher earning job (besides being an athlete) and most above minimum-wage jobs in this country require you to know English.

[S5Dewey]

Well, not really.

 

The US has no official language (an amendment to make English our official language was introduced in 1981 but never ratified).

 

And in the past couple decades, the US has certainly become more accommodating for Spanish-speaking citizens to the point where most government offices and many businesses have bilingual signs. I could foresee this happening with another language, although who knows which one will be next...

 

The thing I find "interesting" about that is that up here in my little corner of the country many more tourists (and people in general) have French as their first language than Spanish, and yet I'm seeing more and more signs with Spanish translations. Probably because most of the French speaking people have also learned English so they don't have to have French translations available.

[Kimmi]

I pretty much buy the CERA theory even though a lot can depend on which catcher gets to catch which starter.

 

In the case of Sandy Leon, I believe I see a smart catcher at work, and for exhibit A would refer to Price's last start, vs. the Guardians, when he threw 8 innings of shutout ball with 3 hits, 0 walks, and 7 K's. What I saw on my screen was Price relying heavily on his fastball and cut fastball. I saw very few changeups, sliders, or curves. Normally, usually, I would condemn such an approach, but that night it worked I think because Price had great command of the two pitches he used the most. I would further argue, that, if I'm right about what pitches Price threw that night--mostly fastballs and cut fastballs--only an experienced, confident, and insightful catcher would have done that. I also know that Sale is having a great year and has not refused any pitch Leon has called.

 

I have absolutely no way of telling if Sandy is great framing pitches. In fact, I don't honestly see it--that our pitchers get more calls than opposing pitchers when Sandy is our catcher. But I do honestly feel that he has a rare intelligence and feel for pitching that makes him our best defensive catcher. If he is the best, I don't really care about his hitting. Well, not much anyway.

 

Sandy is pretty good at framing pitches.

 

BP has him ranked 8th out of all MLB catchers with +9.2 framing runs. That is virtually one game that he has won for the team with his framing skills.

 

StatCorner has him ranked 4th out of all MLB catchers with +9.0 framing runs. Sandy averages 1.08 extra stirke calls per game, ranking him 14th in that category, but some of the catchers ahead of him have very small sample sizes.

[Kimmi]

But perhaps the most incredible aspect of Sales existence is so subtle few have taken the time to soak it in. He hasnt called one of his own pitches in six years.

 

I really believe that Cora should tell some of these pitchers who can't seem to get on the same page with Leon or Vaz and take forever between pitches that they are not allowed to shake off the catcher. Get the sign and make the pitch. Stop thinking so much on the mound.

[harmony]

Funny thing, but I happen to agree about the value of English. I know it sounds like prejudice, but it's what binds us together as a country. Since I taught it for 3 years, I also happen to think it's a pretty darn good language, which plenty of people around the globe of chosen to learn how to speak (or their parents and/or teachers browbeat them into learning) and read. I am, however, a little more tolerant of Japanese players because of the vast differences between their language and ours. But, if you are Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Thai, Honduran, Tibetan, Nepalese, Arab, or whatever, and you want to live and work in this country and maybe become a citizen, you need to learn English.

This continent has been inhabited for 17,000 to 90,000 years, depending on the estimate, but the dominant English language in the United States is from another continent and arrived less than 500 years ago.

 

I suspect the U.S. may have the highest percentage of monolinguists of any country in the world (in part because of the wide spread of English in commerce).

[sk7326]

I really believe that Cora should tell some of these pitchers who can't seem to get on the same page with Leon or Vaz and take forever between pitches that they are not allowed to shake off the catcher. Get the sign and make the pitch. Stop thinking so much on the mound.

 

If it s a blowout, Leon should just employ the Crash Davis approach to that.

[Slasher9]

I really believe that Cora should tell some of these pitchers who can't seem to get on the same page with Leon or Vaz and take forever between pitches that they are not allowed to shake off the catcher. Get the sign and make the pitch. Stop thinking so much on the mound.

 

I mean it does help that Sales stuff is so filthy that the batter has little chance no matter what he throws but I do get your point and agree with you. It shouldn’t take Cora saying something though. You would think these guys would see the proof in the pudding.....

[moonslav59]

Good point.

 

Just go with Leon and get these games over with quickly.

[moonslav59]

Before tonight, here are the ERA- leaders in the AL:

 

100+IP

 

45 Sale

49 Snell

51 Bauer

66 Verlander

66 G Cole (4 ER in 6 IP tonight)

67 Kluber

73 Fiers

74 Morton

76 Clevinger

76 Severino

78 ERod

79 Price

82 Carrasco

83 Gibson

 

26. Porcello 95

 

We're missing 2 of the top 11 ERA- pitchers in the AL and still have a big lead.

 

Wait till they come back!