A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[notin]

I'm not for spending $30+M on Harper or Machado.

 

I would pay Betts $30M x 10 this winter as an extension that begins after his control years end. (I'd pay him $18M for 2019 and $22M for 2020 to buy out his arb years).

 

I'd try to keep Sale, too, but having 3 guys making over $30M is probably undo-able.

 

Betts would be a great idea if Betts and hi agent were amenable. They might be after this past off-season.

 

With Sale, the years are going to be a BIG deal. How many years do you realistically want him for? Because he isn't going to pitch like this forever...

[OH FOY]

Any 10 year contract is crazy, don't matter to who. Stay away from these, team killers.

[notin]

It's all about missed opportunities. Betts has no interest other than to become a free agent. I'm saying that you offer him what you are going to pay Harper. If he's not interested than trade him.

 

You LOCK up players you want for future. I want Betts. I want Sale.

 

I would do to Sale what Sox did with Porcello. Give him a contract that he can't refuse. You sign it April of 2019 to take effect 2020. No effect on AAV for 2019 season and no luxury tax implication for 2019.

 

 

 

But what is a contract Sale can't refuse? Does it take 7 years $210mill to get him to sign and forego free agency? 8 years $300 mill? And are you willing to go to that level knowing full well he could break down in the first year of the deal and make it even more difficult for the Sox to compete. Does it help the future of the Red Sox to have $50-60mill tied up in Sal and Prce for the next 5 years if they are not what they used to be?

 

Sale has been massively underpaid for most of his career and is well aware of that. And if he isn't, his agent certainly is. An offer he can't refuse might be too much for far too long...

[OH FOY]

Sale's record against good teams not good. Not that many granted, but he doesn't dominate them like he does the weaker teams.

[OH FOY]

While just with the Sox Sales record against teams over .500 is 5-9 with a 4.58, against teams .500 and below, is 17-3 with a 2.31 era.

[harmony]

While just with the Sox Sales record against teams over .500 is 5-9 with a 4.58, against teams .500 and below, is 17-3 with a 2.31 era.

Overall, the Red Sox are 12-10 against teams with records of .500 or above and 31-11 against teams below .500 while the Yankees are 18-7 against teams at .500 or above and 23-11 against teams below .500.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2018-standings.shtml#all_expanded_standings_E

 

The strength of schedule should balance out in the end.

[moonslav59]

Sale's record against good teams not good. Not that many granted, but he doesn't dominate them like he does the weaker teams.

 

Isn't that true for just about all pitchers?

[notin]

Isn't that true for just about all pitchers?

 

Its like the "this team doesn't hit good pitching" argument...

[moonslav59]

Its like the "this team doesn't hit good pitching" argument...

 

Exactly, like why do you think they are called good pitchers to begin with? Could it be that they get batters to make outs more than lesser pitchers?

 

Gee, it's remarkable!

 

On a side note, just from my own observations, it seems like our hitters do better than most vs the good pitchers and struggle with rookies and unknowns more than we should. (No stats to back this up.)

 

[moonslav59]

On Sale....

 

Career Opps' OPS against:

 

.626

Late & Close: .556

High Leverage .610

Med Leverage .605

low Leverage .664

Men on base: .622

2 outs, RISP: .583

Tie game: .610

Within 1 run: .602

 

The only thing that bothers me about Sale is this...

 

OPS against by month

.549 May

.592 June

.628 July

.645 Aug

.750 Sept

 

ERA

under 2.28 April, May, June & July

3.22 AUG

3.78 SEP

 

Currently, Sale is tied for the ML lead in games started (14) and is 3rd in IP (89). I see no indication of the team limiting his IP of GS'd, except for pushing his start back a game this week by starting Beeks.

 

 

 

 

[OH FOY]

Isn't that true for just about all pitchers?

 

Nope.

[moonslav59]

Nope.

 

Yup.

 

Of course the majority of pitchers do better vs weaker teams.

[moonslav59]

Man-O-Man JD is just killing it!

 

This line-up had loss written all over it.

 

Okay, okay, we were just playing the White Sox, but still: nice win!

[Larry Cook]

I am amazed at how well we are doing without Betts in the lineup.

 

It’s all about pitching!

[moonslav59]

I am amazed at how well we are doing without Betts in the lineup.

 

It’s all about pitching!

 

...and JD.

[Spudboy]

...and JD.

 

Yup.

 

Can't argue with thump.

 

I can't wait for this lineup to get healthy.

 

I understand injuries happen. I just hope nothing keeps a key player like Betts or JD off the field for more than a game or two.

 

This team is really fun to watch when up to speed.

[SoxHop]

Yup.

 

Can't argue with thump.

 

I can't wait for this lineup to get healthy.

 

I understand injuries happen. I just hope nothing keeps a key player like Betts or JD off the field for more than a game or two.

 

This team is really fun to watch when up to speed.

 

Well said Spud......

 

This team is just fun to watch. I can't wait till Mookie is back. The team doesn't look like a bunch of badass super weight room players, but they can kick major ass.

[jacksonianmarch]

JD is a great baseball player. I have no earthly idea why pitchers throw to him. No idea. Nunez was protecting him today. How do you let him beat you? I’d Bonds him in every at bat unless I was way up or way down. There’s no reason to pitch to him.

[moonslav59]

It looks like our catchers are going to hit muc better than their .450 start.

 

JBJ may end up over .600-- hopefully .700+.

 

Bogey is looking like he should be .800+- maybe even .850+.

 

Beni looks for real, and tyhis gives us 3 guys that should end up over .900.

 

We need to keep Moreland hitting or hope Nunez, Pedey, Devers and others take up the slack.

 

We just need health to be on our side.

[moonslav59]

JD is a great baseball player. I have no earthly idea why pitchers throw to him. No idea. Nunez was protecting him today. How do you let him beat you? I’d Bonds him in every at bat unless I was way up or way down. There’s no reason to pitch to him.

 

Gotta agree.

 

Nunez should scare nobody.

[moonslav59]

December 2018 Rule 5 List:

 

Victor Acosta

Christopher Acosta

Yoan Aybar

Roldani Baldwin

Trey Ball

Juan Barriento

Edilson Batista

Eduard Bazardo

Danny Bethea

Jordan Betts

Marino Campana

Rusney Castillo

Michael Chavis

Luis Colmenares

Eduard Conde

Harrison Cooney

Jake Cosart

Ricardo Cubillan

Enmanuel De Jesus

Chad De La Guerra

Jhonathan Diaz

Jerry Downs

Nick Duron

Junior Espinoza

Willis Figueroa

Devon Fisher

Austin Glorius

Daniel Gonzalez

Juan Hernandez

Darwinzon Hernandez

Oscar Hernandez

Tyler Hill

Dedgar Jimenez

Trevor Kelley

Trenton Kemp

Matt Kent

Travis Lakins

Marcos Lantigua

Adam Lau

Deiner Lopez

Isaias Lucena

Chris Madera

Freiberg Marin

Danny Mars

Kyle Martin

Algenis Martinez

Tate Matheny

Kevin McAvoy

Daniel McGrath

Samuel Miranda

Joseph Monge

Jhon Nunez

Josh Ockimey

Angel Padron

Yorvin Pantoja

Yankory Pimentel

Jordan Procyshen

Roniel Raudes

Austin Rei

Hildemaro Requena

Denyi Reyes

Eddy Reynoso

Jeremy Rivera

Jake Romanski

Teddy Stankiewicz

Kevin Steen

Cole Sturgeon

Josh Taylor

Luke Tendler

Josh Tobias

Carlos Tovar

Kyri Washington

Jantzen Witte

[OH FOY]

Sox got to take care of business against the WS and Orioles, next 16 out of 19 games after that will be against teams above .500 toughest stretch leading up to the AS break, in first half.

[OH FOY]

JD is a great baseball player. I have no earthly idea why pitchers throw to him. No idea. Nunez was protecting him today. How do you let him beat you? I’d Bonds him in every at bat unless I was way up or way down. There’s no reason to pitch to him.

 

Good Post, smart Managers will do this.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Such a strange lineup they are putting out there. I don't think I've ever seen a lineup so reliant on the top with so much to overcome at the bottom. Maybe I was naive but I really expected Pedroia to come back to close to his normal self. If he was in the lineup and hitting .280 or so along with Betts' return that would be pretty sweet. Now we must endure. Winning yesterday with that lineup was remarkable but it won't happen often. Nunez followed by Travis, Devers, Vazquez, Swihart and Bradley is just brutal.

[devildavid]

Gotta agree.

 

Nunez should scare nobody.

 

A bad sign for the Sox offense lately is Nunez moving up in the batting order.

[oldtimer]

It looks like our catchers are going to hit muc better than their .450 start.

 

JBJ may end up over .600-- hopefully .700+.

 

Bogey is looking like he should be .800+- maybe even .850+.

 

Beni looks for real, and tyhis gives us 3 guys that should end up over .900.

 

We need to keep Moreland hitting or hope Nunez, Pedey, Devers and others take up the slack.

 

We just need health to be on our side.

 

Ever the optimist. Our catchers should hit better than the awful .450 start. Still not good though

JBJ is going to hit .700+ . Think you are smoking something on that one.

Bogey is better this year and if they can keep him in a good spot in the lineup the hope is he won't fade in the second half again this year.

Beni does look for real.

Moreland will get his extra base hits but I don't expect him to keep up at his current level.

Nunez is a pro and will be a solid contributor but Pedey is an unknown. Will he play in a significant number of games.

Devers looks like he will struggle this year. He needs to make adjustments at the plate and to date he has been slow to do so. He may need a threat of being sent down to realize he needs to change.

Holt is a pro but is always going to be a fill in.

Swihart shows little sign of contributing.

[oldtimer]

Such a strange lineup they are putting out there. I don't think I've ever seen a lineup so reliant on the top with so much to overcome at the bottom. Maybe I was naive but I really expected Pedroia to come back to close to his normal self. If he was in the lineup and hitting .280 or so along with Betts' return that would be pretty sweet. Now we must endure. Winning yesterday with that lineup was remarkable but it won't happen often. Nunez followed by Travis' date=' Devers, Vazquez, Swihart and Bradley is just brutal.[/quote']

 

Totally agree except for Pedey, who I was taking a wait and see approach. With Betts back we will soon have 5 solid bats at the top and Nunez is at least proficient enough to bat 6th. The problem is behind them for the 7,8 and 9 spots in the order. Take out your rose colored glasses if you expect those spots to produce. It doesn't look like there is money available this year to do anything about it through trade or free agency and no one other than Pedey is available to come back and help. Cross your fingers on Pedey.

[notin]

JD is a great baseball player. I have no earthly idea why pitchers throw to him. No idea. Nunez was protecting him today. How do you let him beat you? I’d Bonds him in every at bat unless I was way up or way down. There’s no reason to pitch to him.

 

Well, the tank mode White Sox are probably more into seeing how their younger and injured pitchers are coming along thsn worrying about whether or not JD Martinez beats them. What do they learn about Rodan's recovery if he walks Martinez?

[Maxbialystock]

My suggestion to moonslav is that he change the name of this thread because it's clearly no longer "A Realistic view of 2018" but rather "A Pessimistic bordering despairing Look at 2018" or maybe "A Realistic View of 2018 Sox Hitting Because We All Know Pitching is Unimportant."

 

Despite the gloom and doom on this thread, the Sox still the second best hitting in MLB and should improve when Mookie returns. That is fantastic! But not to TalkSoxers. Nosiree. We prefer to dwell on the failures.

 

And the pitching? With Pom on the DL, the Sox probably have the second best rotation (after Houston) in MLB with Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod, and Wright. So I have to ask: why isn't that both a good thing and something to be celebrated?

[OH FOY]

Well, the tank mode White Sox are probably more into seeing how their younger and injured pitchers are coming along thsn worrying about whether or not JD Martinez beats them. What do they learn about Rodan's recovery if he walks Martinez?

 

Another Good Post.