A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[moonslav59]

Agree. I still think it was a good signing at the time. At the time of signing, JD was not a sure thing. At the very least, thus we had DH/1B covered with Moreland and Hanley.

 

I also thought Moreland played hurt last year. He's not great but more than adequate.

 

Moreland has been great, and the more I bash him, the better he does.

 

"Ignore the man behind the curtain."

 

Maybe we found a real gem.

 

My biggest beef is about Devers now being forced to learn defense at 3B during a championship run.

 

I had also thought Moreland could keep HRam from vesting, but the way HRam is playing, that ain't happening.

[moonslav59]

Which is it?

 

We lose 2 of 3 and now Max thinks better about us and worse about the Yanks.

[Maxbialystock]

Which is it?

 

Which one is more recent? I consider the recent Yankees series to be a real eye-opener because before it I was plenty worried. The one positive voice who made sense to me was moonslav, which is why I give him credit. He saw the potential of this team more clearly than I.

 

I patted myself on the back for recognizing that moonslav was right after the first two games, both of which we lost. That's when almost everyone else was moaning and groaning.

 

I'm an old Red Sox fan and consequently a pessimist. Remember that 86 year drought? I was a fan for 54 years of it, 1949-2003.

 

Thus, even though I loved the first 19 games (17-2), I was ready to bail when the Yankees went on an equally hot streak. I expected them to crush our Sox at Yankee Stadium. They had Severino, Tanaka, and Sabathia going against Pom, Price, and Porcello (which turned out to be Pom, Porcello, and ERod). However, I think that, except for the bullpen, the Sox played great in those first two games and was very encouraged and said so. Last night made it even better because I had low expectations for ERod.

[Maxbialystock]

We lose 2 of 3 and now Max thinks better about us and worse about the Yanks.

 

Absolutely true. Actually, I thought better of us after we lost the first two games and said so. But for the bullpen, we had a shot at winning both of them.

 

jacksonianmarch was pleased with the Yankees big 7th inning rally last night, but all I saw was bullpen ineptitude--singles and walks and even a wild pitch to bring in 1 of those 4 runs.

 

If Price is OK and the carpal tunnel is behind him, I see signs of a pretty darn good rotation, and to me bullpens are always fixable. And I really like the lineup. The defense ain't great, but, honestly, I don't care. To me 80% of defense is that guy on the mound.

[moonslav59]

That's the thing that's being overlooked in the Moreland signing. IMO Moreland was insurance (ok, weak insurance, but insurance) if we didn't sign a big hitter. We don't know where we would be without Moreland if we hadn't signed JDM. Duda? Maybe, but that was't a sure thing either with other teams after him.

 

Moreland may not be the absolute answer to any of our questions but he's at least able to play the game respectably and make contributions. Isn't that the role of bench players?

 

 

I guess, if we think Moreland is vastly better than Moose, Duda, Morrison and others, then maybe, but there was absolutely no rush to sign a 1Bman. It was the one position saturated with capable players.

 

Now, as it turns out, Moreland is doing great, so the signing looks good, but Moose and Squirrel are doing very well, too... and for less money and/or years.

 

Listed in order of RBIs.

 

All with 120+ PAs, except MM...

.191 6 26 Santana

.298 10 25 M Adams

.298 5 24 HRam

.218 8 21 Alonso

.325 6 19 Moreland (in just 80 PA!)

.271 7 19 J Abreu

.242 4 18 Duda

.178 4 13 Morrison

.263 5 12 The Hose

 

[moonslav59]

Which one is more recent? I consider the recent Yankees series to be a real eye-opener because before it I was plenty worried. The one positive voice who made sense to me was moonslav, which is why I give him credit. He saw the potential of this team more clearly than I.

 

I patted myself on the back for recognizing that moonslav was right after the first two games, both of which we lost. That's when almost everyone else was moaning and groaning.

 

I'm an old Red Sox fan and consequently a pessimist. Remember that 86 year drought? I was a fan for 54 years of it, 1949-2003.

 

Thus, even though I loved the first 19 games (17-2), I was ready to bail when the Yankees went on an equally hot streak. I expected them to crush our Sox at Yankee Stadium. They had Severino, Tanaka, and Sabathia going against Pom, Price, and Porcello (which turned out to be Pom, Porcello, and ERod). However, I think that, except for the bullpen, the Sox played great in those first two games and was very encouraged and said so. Last night made it even better because I had low expectations for ERod.

 

The Yanks have a very formidable team. To me, this is the best Sox team, on paper, since maybe 2007. With budget issues, it might be our best for the next 4-6 years.

 

This is it, baby!

[moonslav59]

Absolutely true. Actually, I thought better of us after we lost the first two games and said so. But for the bullpen, we had a shot at winning both of them.

 

jacksonianmarch was pleased with the Yankees big 7th inning rally last night, but all I saw was bullpen ineptitude--singles and walks and even a wild pitch to bring in 1 of those 4 runs.

 

If Price is OK and the carpal tunnel is behind him, I see signs of a pretty darn good rotation, and to me bullpens are always fixable. And I really like the lineup. The defense ain't great, but, honestly, I don't care. To me 80% of defense is that guy on the mound.

 

Before last year started, I felt our pen was our greatest weakness (though not weak). They proved me wrong.

 

I felt with Smith and Thornburg coming back, and full seasons from Workman and Maddox, along with Barnes, Hembree & Kelly being more "seasoned", our pen would be at least as good as last year.

 

I'm not sure what to think now, but we look shaky in that area, to say the least.

 

Time will tell. We have a little budget space for the deadline, and RP'ers with pro-rated contracts should be available, if needed.

[Bellhorn04]

I guess, if we think Moreland is vastly better than Moose, Duda, Morrison and others, then maybe, but there was absolutely no rush to sign a 1Bman. It was the one position saturated with capable players.

 

Now, as it turns out, Moreland is doing great, so the signing looks good, but Moose and Squirrel are doing very well, too... and for less money and/or years.

 

Listed in order of RBIs.

 

All with 120+ PAs, except MM...

.191 6 26 Santana

.298 10 25 M Adams

.298 5 24 HRam

.218 8 21 Alonso

.325 6 19 Moreland (in just 80 PA!)

.271 7 19 J Abreu

.242 4 18 Duda

.178 4 13 Morrison

.263 5 12 The Hose

 

 

Moose signing for what he did was an absolute freak. No one saw that coming, nothing close to that.

 

And he re-signed with the team he has played for his whole career. There's no way of knowing how much more another team might have had to pay to move him out of KC.

[S5Dewey]

Now, as it turns out, Moreland is doing great, so the signing looks good, but Moose and Squirrel are doing very well, too... and for less money and/or years.

 

Nice touch.... made me chuckle.

[oldtimer]

Which one is more recent? I consider the recent Yankees series to be a real eye-opener because before it I was plenty worried. The one positive voice who made sense to me was moonslav, which is why I give him credit. He saw the potential of this team more clearly than I.

 

I patted myself on the back for recognizing that moonslav was right after the first two games, both of which we lost. That's when almost everyone else was moaning and groaning.

 

I'm an old Red Sox fan and consequently a pessimist. Remember that 86 year drought? I was a fan for 54 years of it, 1949-2003.

 

Thus, even though I loved the first 19 games (17-2), I was ready to bail when the Yankees went on an equally hot streak. I expected them to crush our Sox at Yankee Stadium. They had Severino, Tanaka, and Sabathia going against Pom, Price, and Porcello (which turned out to be Pom, Porcello, and ERod). However, I think that, except for the bullpen, the Sox played great in those first two games and was very encouraged and said so. Last night made it even better because I had low expectations for ERod.

 

I too have been a fan for many years, going back into the 40's. Te 1949 team was one of my favorites ever.

 

We have a very good offensive team, particularly if we sit JBJ and play Nunez. When Pedey gets back, we may even be stronger. Our defense is not great as we suffer from a 3rd baseman with a leaners permit and range issues in the infield. Pitching is worrisome and particularly the BP. Kelly and Kimbrel are high quality but Henbree is a liability and Barnes is only so so. Like many, I am hoping Thornburg will come in and hold his own and Poyner will also do the same. Smith is an unknown. Not great so far but maybe he can at least be useable.

[moonslav59]

Moose signing for what he did was an absolute freak. No one saw that coming, nothing close to that.

 

And he re-signed with the team he has played for his whole career. There's no way of knowing how much more another team might have had to pay to move him out of KC.

 

He settled on KC, because there were no other bidders.

 

I agree, there was no way of knowing, but at the time of the Moreland signing, there were plenty of options available. There was very little risk, we'd be denied a capable 1Bman or 3Bman.

 

It's hard to be critical of the Moreland signing. He's doing fantastic!

 

(BTW, Moose is at .291 10 28 in 159 PAs. Moose has done better, so far, but the 3B defense might have been improved.)

[moonslav59]

I too have been a fan for many years, going back into the 40's. Te 1949 team was one of my favorites ever.

 

We have a very good offensive team, particularly if we sit JBJ and play Nunez. When Pedey gets back, we may even be stronger. Our defense is not great as we suffer from a 3rd baseman with a leaners permit and range issues in the infield. Pitching is worrisome and particularly the BP. Kelly and Kimbrel are high quality but Henbree is a liability and Barnes is only so so. Like many, I am hoping Thornburg will come in and hold his own and Poyner will also do the same. Smith is an unknown. Not great so far but maybe he can at least be useable.

 

If Thornburg, Smith or someone else becomes great by playoff time, we'll have a great chance.

 

With so many players capable of becoming a solid 8th inning/back-up closer, I like our odds.

[mvp 78]

He settled on KC, because there were no other bidders.

 

I agree, there was no way of knowing, but at the time of the Moreland signing, there were plenty of options available. There was very little risk, we'd be denied a capable 1Bman or 3Bman.

 

It's hard to be critical of the Moreland signing. He's doing fantastic!

 

(BTW, Moose is at .291 10 28 in 159 PAs. Moose has done better, so far, but the 3B defense might have been improved.)

 

Moose: -1.2 dWAR

 

Devers: 2.2 dWAR

 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[moonslav59]

Moose: -1.2 dWAR

 

Devers: 2.2 dWAR

 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

I'm verklempt!

[illinoisredsox]

Moose: -1.2 dWAR

 

Devers: 2.2 dWAR

 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Not according to Baseball Reference

 

2018 Devers dWAR 0.1, Moustakas dWAR 0.0

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/deverra01.shtml

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moustmi01.shtml

 

Look under Player Value - Batting

 

And if there's that big a difference between sites on the same statistic, how good can the stat be?

Edited May 11, 2018 by illinoisredsox

[Maxbialystock]

The Yanks have a very formidable team. To me, this is the best Sox team, on paper, since maybe 2007. With budget issues, it might be our best for the next 4-6 years.

 

This is it, baby!

 

Agree on most. And try not to think much about the future--too hard, too uncertain.

[Bellhorn04]

Not according to Baseball Reference

 

2018 Devers dWAR 0.1, Moustakas dWAR 0.0

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/deverra01.shtml

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moustmi01.shtml

 

Look under Player Value - Batting

 

And if there's that big a difference between sites on the same statistic, how good can the stat be?

 

FanGraphs seems to be the most highly regarded source.

[Maxbialystock]

Moose signing for what he did was an absolute freak. No one saw that coming, nothing close to that.

 

And he re-signed with the team he has played for his whole career. There's no way of knowing how much more another team might have had to pay to move him out of KC.

 

All good points. I frankly applaud any multimillionaire who gives up a few to stay where he and his family are comfortable. They will remain so for the rest of their lives if they spend wisely.

 

I'm convinced that the higher and higher and higher salaries are driven more by the agents than the players. But I could be wrong.

[mvp 78]

Not according to Baseball Reference

 

2018 Devers dWAR 0.1, Moustakas dWAR 0.0

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/deverra01.shtml

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moustmi01.shtml

 

Look under Player Value - Batting

 

And if there's that big a difference between sites on the same statistic, how good can the stat be?

 

So Baseball Ref still has Devers as being better? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[illinoisredsox]

FanGraphs seems to be the most highly regarded source.

 

That might be, but it lists Devers as the 4th ranked 3rd baseman in the majors; if so, then every 3rd sacker in the big leagues absolutely blows as a fielder.

 

And I repeat, how can a stat be considered seriously if if differs so greatly from site to site.

[illinoisredsox]

So Baseball Ref still has Devers as being better? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

I guess (though may as well a wash), but nowhere near the difference you are claiming. And as I said above, it's a sad commentary on the state of 3rd basemen today. Somewhere, Mike Schmidt and Brooks Robinson weep.

 

Oh, and how come you didn't bring up the offensive numbers? Moustakas 6.8, Devers -2.2.

 

I'm perfectly happy to let Devers develop as best he can at 3rd. It is also obvious that right now the game is moving a bit fast for him. The only way to get over that is to play. But for the short term, right now, Moustakas may have been a better choice. Long term, who know, Lets see where Devers goes.

Edited May 11, 2018 by illinoisredsox

[mvp 78]

That might be, but it lists Devers as the 4th ranked 3rd baseman in the majors; if so, then every 3rd sacker in the big leagues absolutely blows as a fielder.

 

And I repeat, how can a stat be considered seriously if if differs so greatly from site to site.

 

Devers gets high marks because he has legit range and a solid glove. His issue is throwing, which can be fixed.

[mvp 78]

I guess (though may as well a wash), but nowhere near the difference you are claiming. And as I said above, it's a sad commentary on the state of 3rd basemen today. Somewhere, Mike Schmidt and Brooks Robinson weep.

 

Oh, and how come you didn't bring up the offensive numbers? Moustakas 6.8, Devers -2.2.

 

I'm perfectly happy to let Devers develop as best he can at 3rd. It is also obvious that right now the game is moving a bit fast for him. The only way to get over that is to play. But for the short term, right now, Moustakas may have been a better choice. Long term, who know, Lets see where Devers goes.

 

Long term, Devers is 8 years younger than Moustakas. I think Devers is the right call.

[moonslav59]

Devers gets high marks because he has legit range and a solid glove. His issue is throwing, which can be fixed.

 

I do no doubt he can develop into a plus defender.

 

My concern is his learning curve occurring during a year like this.

[Maxbialystock]

Devers gets high marks because he has legit range and a solid glove. His issue is throwing, which can be fixed.

 

Here's what soxprospects says about him--

 

Field: Has soft hands and his footwork is surprisingly good given his build. Comfortable charging the ball and making smooth transfers from glove to throwing hand. Agile for his size and has average range. Projects as at least an average defender at third base. Speed of the game could give him some trouble while he adjusts to the major league level. On occasion will lose fundamentals leading to careless errors. Should be able to stick at the position long-term unless his body gets away from him as he matures. There was concern in the lower minors that he may need to move off the position, but this stemmed almost entirely from projections that he may lose agility as he grew into his large frame, rather than from anything relating to his fielding ability.

[Maxbialystock]

I do no doubt he can develop into a plus defender.

 

My concern is his learning curve occurring during a year like this.

 

But haven't we already agreed we need his bat and we already have good ones for 1b and DH? Heck, we have some many of both Cora can afford to bench JBJ and put JD in the outfield and Moreland at 1B.

 

I would far, far rather have a newbie with a good bat and doubtful defense than, as was the case with JBJ and now appears to be the case again, a newbie with a great glove and an OPS of .530 (2014). JBJ was deservedly sent back to Pawtucket. Devers won't be.

 

I'll go one step further and say I would rather have Devers at 3b than Nunez, who probably has no errors, at 2B because Nunez has almost no range and his hitting is off.

[Bellhorn04]

I do no doubt he can develop into a plus defender.

 

My concern is his learning curve occurring during a year like this.

 

It's certainly a valid concern, but the metrics seem to be saying he's no worse than Moose, maybe a little better.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Before last year started, I felt our pen was our greatest weakness (though not weak). They proved me wrong.

 

I felt with Smith and Thornburg coming back, and full seasons from Workman and Maddox, along with Barnes, Hembree & Kelly being more "seasoned", our pen would be at least as good as last year.

 

I'm not sure what to think now, but we look shaky in that area, to say the least.

 

Time will tell. We have a little budget space for the deadline, and RP'ers with pro-rated contracts should be available, if needed.

 

We need C.Smith to develop into a shutdown 8th inning guy, which could happen. If it does happen, I like this bullpen.

 

I'm not big on Barnes--too many walks. He gets himself into trouble too easily especially against a patient lineup (like the Yankees). For me, trying to make Barnes into the 8th inning guy is an idea that is bound to fail. Instead, we need C.Smith to regain that 2015 form he had with the Mariners.

 

Since April 30: Smith 4 IP, 0 ER, 7 Ks, 0 BB. Pretty good, keeping my fingers crossed he can keep this going.

Edited May 11, 2018 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Bellhorn04]

I really don't think Cora or the team want Barnes to be the 8th inning guy on a consistent basis. If we're lucky, by the end of the year we'll have Thornburg, Smith and Kelly pitching well and they'll be getting those 8th inning gigs ahead of Barnes.

[mvp 78]

I do no doubt he can develop into a plus defender.

 

My concern is his learning curve occurring during a year like this.

 

"A year like this."

 

A year where they are first in their division?