A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[notin]

Devers is 3d on the team in total bases and 4th in rbi's. His overall WAR, .3, ain't much, but Nunez's is -.5. I do not understand the enmity directed toward Devers and the free ride accorded Nunez, who I might add has 9 more years professional experience than Devers.

 

To me Devers at 3b is a good investment for the future who is contributing now and will only get better. Do I need to remind this board of other recent Sox thirdbasemen? Mike Lowell was pretty good back in 2007-9. Later came Middlebrooks and the great Pablo Sandoval.

 

Missing the relevance here?

 

If anything, Middlebrooks is the cautionary tale. He was a fan favorite right out of the gate, but turned into a massive flop rather quickly. (But at least Devers doesn't have Middlebrooks' noticeable poor strike zone judgement. They are not the same player at the plate.)

 

Regardless, that Sandoval and Middlebrooks were not good players doesn't make Devers a better defender. If anything, he looks like a hitter who is given defensive pass because of his bat, while other players who excel at their positions are crucified because of their bats. Defense is about the glove and the arm and using them to make plays. To date, that has not been Devers forte. On the bright side, even if he does move off third, he will still be a bat in the middle of the Sox lineup for 5 more years...

[notin]

Meh. 80% of defense is the pitcher on the mound.

 

It certainly is a big part, although I am hesitant to say 80%.

[Maxbialystock]

Missing the relevance here?

 

If anything, Middlebrooks is the cautionary tale. He was a fan favorite right out of the gate, but turned into a massive flop rather quickly. (But at least Devers doesn't have Middlebrooks' noticeable poor strike zone judgement. They are not the same player at the plate.)

 

Regardless, that Sandoval and Middlebrooks were not good players doesn't make Devers a better defender. If anything, he looks like a hitter who is given defensive pass because of his bat, while other players who excel at their positions are crucified because of their bats. Defense is about the glove and the arm and using them to make plays. To date, that has not been Devers forte. On the bright side, even if he does move off third, he will still be a bat in the middle of the Sox lineup for 5 more years...

 

Are you saying WAR is irrelevant to evaluating the value of a player?

 

I love watching good glove work and a great arm. It's the poetry of baseball. But, I say again, 80% of team defense is that pitcher on the mound.

 

Speaking of defensive players being crucified, I take it then that you would still rather have the brilliant Iglesias at SS instead of so-so Bogie as the Sox shortstop. I loved Iglesias back in 2013 because he was terrific to watch, but I was fine then with letting him go and am more than fine with Bogie at SS today. I see Devers as another Bogie in the making.

[jacksonianmarch]

Devers is a different body type. Bogaerts has always had an athletic build. Devers lower half is built like a defensive lineman. He’s going to age out of the position quickly

[Maxbialystock]

Devers is a different body type. Bogaerts has always had an athletic build. Devers lower half is built like a defensive lineman. He’s going to age out of the position quickly

 

A good point. Here's what soxprospects wrote about Devers:

 

Field: Has soft hands and his footwork is surprisingly good given his build. Comfortable charging the ball and making smooth transfers from glove to throwing hand. Agile for his size and has average range. Projects as at least an average defender at third base. Speed of the game could give him some trouble while he adjusts to the major league level. On occasion will lose fundamentals leading to careless errors. Should be able to stick at the position long-term unless his body gets away from him as he matures. There was concern in the lower minors that he may need to move off the position, but this stemmed almost entirely from projections that he may lose agility as he grew into his large frame, rather than from anything relating to his fielding ability.

[Maxbialystock]

The Sox already have two good bats, Moreland and HanRam, to play 1B. To me it is pointless to want to move Devers when we have weak bats elsewhere (C, 2B, CF) in the lineup. Same goes for DH: HanRam and JD.

 

In other words, I have yet to see a compelling argument on where to put Devers besides 3B other than benching him, which I think would be monumentally stupid at this point.

 

Second, Devers has now played 30 games, 1 more than any other Sox player, so apparently Cora sees some value in him at 3b. At the same time, however, JBJ has played in 29 games, so clearly Cora values his defense because he sure ain't worth much on offense. His overall WAR right now is -.3, but last year it was 2.8 when his OPS was .726. Now it's .545.

 

If it were up to me, given the weakness of the bottom 3d of the order, I would play JD more in LF, moving Beni to CF and JBJ to the reserve outfielder. HanRam goes to DH and Moreland, OPS over .900, to 1b.

 

If you hate that idea, you only need to point out that right now the Sox are 2d in MLB in scoring, which argues that a great defensive CF can only help the pitching which is really struggling right now and isn't needed that much to help with the scoring.

Edited May 4, 2018 by Maxbialystock

[S5Dewey]

Offense is more fun to watch and more easily understandable.

 

Defense, especially in this "post-Fielding percentage and errors" era, is much tougher to quantify and harder to relate directly to wins.

 

That doesn't mean defense is less important.

 

You know you're preaching to the choir here, don't you?

[moonslav59]

Offense is more fun to watch and more easily understandable.

 

To me, a great defensive play is vastly more entertaining and "fun" than any hitting or running feat, except maybe a game winning hit, but even then, a great game-saving catch is more thrilling.

[S5Dewey]

Offense is more fun to watch and more easily understandable.

 

To me, a great defensive play is vastly more entertaining and "fun" than any hitting or running feat, except maybe a game winning hit, but even then, a great game-saving catch is more thrilling.

 

You 'n' me, Mr. Moon!

[moonslav59]

The Sox already have two good bats, Moreland and HanRam, to play 1B. To me it is pointless to want to move Devers when we have weak bats elsewhere (C, 2B, CF) in the lineup. Same goes for DH: HanRam and JD.

 

In other words, I have yet to see a compelling argument on where to put Devers besides 3B other than benching him, which I think would be monumentally stupid at this point.

 

Second, Devers has now played 30 games, 1 more than any other Sox player, so apparently Cora sees some value in him at 3b. At the same time, however, JBJ has played in 29 games, so clearly Cora values his defense because he sure ain't worth much on offense. His overall WAR right now is -.3, but last year it was 2.8 when his OPS was .726. Now it's .545.

 

If it were up to me, given the weakness of the bottom 3d of the order, I would play JD more in LF, moving Beni to CF and JBJ to the reserve outfielder. HanRam goes to DH and Moreland, OPS over .900, to 1b.

 

If you hate that idea, you only need to point out that right now the Sox are 2d in MLB in scoring, which argues that a great defensive CF can only help the pitching which is really struggling right now and isn't needed that much to help with the scoring.

 

The time to move Devers was before we signed Moreland- not now.

[Maxbialystock]

The time to move Devers was before we signed Moreland- not now.

 

Well said. I can't argue with that. And I agree about the beauty of great defense.

[Bellhorn04]

I like great defensive plays too, but here's a reality check: JBJ as of now is a minus player. His bad offense is outweighing his good defense.

 

One 'advantage' of the offensive side, you might say, is that you are guaranteed to get multiple opportunities to contribute every single game you start. On the defensive side, you are not guaranteed anything as far as non-routine plays in which you have a chance to really affect the outcome.

[jacksonianmarch]

Thing is, you move JBJ to a reserve Of role and he cannot recover. You permanently damage his value. You have to ride him through the end of June. If he continues to suck, then you make a move before the deadline. If he creeps back to like and has one of his 1.1 OPS months like he seems to do when the weather gets hot, then you ride with him.

[oldtimer]

The general theme here is - if you can hit, you don't need to field your position well. But, according to the Vazquez and Bradley threads, if you can field your position extremely well, you still better hit.

 

Players spend much more time in the field manning their positions and many make more plays than they get plate appearances. Yet fans seem to like having these defensive positions need to be governed by offensive output alone?

 

Devers is not good at third. He might get better, but that doesn't mean he will ever be good. Really, first base or DH is probably in his future.

 

(Maybe the Bradley detractors would not mind seeing Devers to DH and JD to LF, Benitendi to CF and Bradley to the bench? Not sure who mans third in that scenario. Maybe the Sox will just have to pitch everyone away...)

 

I certainly would have supported Moon's view that we should have gone for a 3rd baseman as a FA before thiss season began with the thought of moving Devers to 1st. There is still a chance he will improve to only a so so 3rd baseman from a poor one now. In Bradley's case, he has quite a history now and continues to have problems at the plate. I would give him a rest period now as we do have options with Martinez in left, Beni in Center and we can use Moreland at first.

 

Now,the argument of playing a great defender that doesn't produce at the plate is often made here. If all our fielders were great defenders who hit like Bradley we would be in last place. Yes you can hide a guy in a strong lineup, but we often play Bradley, either catcher and a substitute infielder who can't hit. That puts the pressure on part of the lineup to provide all of the scoring. Much better to do continuous improvement by replacing the weak links on a team with better. Its kind of the continuous improvement idea and it goes on with every team every year. What we are hoping for is to get better when players show sustained weak areas through capability or age.

[oldtimer]

The Sox already have two good bats, Moreland and HanRam, to play 1B. To me it is pointless to want to move Devers when we have weak bats elsewhere (C, 2B, CF) in the lineup. Same goes for DH: HanRam and JD.

 

In other words, I have yet to see a compelling argument on where to put Devers besides 3B other than benching him, which I think would be monumentally stupid at this point.

 

Second, Devers has now played 30 games, 1 more than any other Sox player, so apparently Cora sees some value in him at 3b. At the same time, however, JBJ has played in 29 games, so clearly Cora values his defense because he sure ain't worth much on offense. His overall WAR right now is -.3, but last year it was 2.8 when his OPS was .726. Now it's .545.

 

If it were up to me, given the weakness of the bottom 3d of the order, I would play JD more in LF, moving Beni to CF and JBJ to the reserve outfielder. HanRam goes to DH and Moreland, OPS over .900, to 1b.

 

If you hate that idea, you only need to point out that right now the Sox are 2d in MLB in scoring, which argues that a great defensive CF can only help the pitching which is really struggling right now and isn't needed that much to help with the scoring.

 

Some of the discussion was about what we might have done prior to obtaining Moreland. Now that we have him, it is difficult to see us moving Devers off of 3rd this year. We probably jst have to live with the errors and hope for some improvement with experience.

 

I agree with the concept of using Martinez in left field. He is a professional hitter and has done better in the outfield than I expected. Beni is a quallity hitter and will likely bring his numbers up this year. He isn't as gifted defensively as Bradley but can do a decent job there. I would suggest resting Bradley and that indeed might result in him becoming more of a reserve outfielder. His trade value doesn't look that good right now.

 

My view of Hanley is that he is in his mid 30's now, is a big muscular guy and probably needs more rest days than he has been getting. I have noticed for some time now he is not doing well with fast balls and he is getting a lot of those. Reducing his plate appearances sounds like a good idea, whether it be DH or 1st so he can stay fresh and produce better when he is in the game. We have a hot Moreland who is a good 1st baseman so that is no problem and we hope to allow Swihart to get more appearances along the way so some DH reps can come from him.

[moonslav59]

I like great defensive plays too, but here's a reality check: JBJ as of now is a minus player. His bad offense is outweighing his good defense.

 

One 'advantage' of the offensive side, you might say, is that you are guaranteed to get multiple opportunities to contribute every single game you start. On the defensive side, you are not guaranteed anything as far as non-routine plays in which you have a chance to really affect the outcome.

 

Think of it this way, how many more singles and doubles would JBJ need to have every week to make him a plus on offense?

 

Let's say he gets 30 PAs a week. Right now, he gets about 5 hits and 2 walks every 20 PAs. If he got 2 more singles, he's have an OBP of .272. 5 more singles is .364.

 

Does JBJ make 2-5 more defensive players more than the average CF'er per week?

 

Maybe 2 but not likely 3. Now, change a single to a double or HR, and the choice is not so clear.

[notin]

Are you saying WAR is irrelevant to evaluating the value of a player?

 

I love watching good glove work and a great arm. It's the poetry of baseball. But, I say again, 80% of team defense is that pitcher on the mound.

 

Speaking of defensive players being crucified, I take it then that you would still rather have the brilliant Iglesias at SS instead of so-so Bogie as the Sox shortstop. I loved Iglesias back in 2013 because he was terrific to watch, but I was fine then with letting him go and am more than fine with Bogie at SS today. I see Devers as another Bogie in the making.

 

No. I am saying the successes and failures of Lowell, Middlebrooks and Sandoval are irrelevant when discussing the defense abilities of Devers.

 

Actually, I did not mind the Iglesias trade as much as some. But - and I said this all over BDC at the time - I would have preferred to deal Middlebrooks. Granted, this would have severely modified the trade to the point where Chicago (who had not had a 3B since Joe Crede at the time) might not have been interested, and might have even cut Detroit out altogether.

 

I can't fault Cherington there. For all I know, maybe he did offer Middlebrooks first...

[notin]

I like great defensive plays too, but here's a reality check: JBJ as of now is a minus player. His bad offense is outweighing his good defense.

 

One 'advantage' of the offensive side, you might say, is that you are guaranteed to get multiple opportunities to contribute every single game you start. On the defensive side, you are not guaranteed anything as far as non-routine plays in which you have a chance to really affect the outcome.

 

Just because a play is routine for one player doesn't necessarily make it routine for another.

 

And if you want to look at it that way, really what percentage of plate appearances - the overwhelming majority of which will result in outs for every player - really have the chance to severly impact the outcome? Especially from a guy batting eighth...

[notin]

Offense is more fun to watch and more easily understandable.

 

To me, a great defensive play is vastly more entertaining and "fun" than any hitting or running feat, except maybe a game winning hit, but even then, a great game-saving catch is more thrilling.

 

Certainly, depending on the play itself.

 

But most fans identify with offense. Baseball cards have revolved around it for decades. Fantasy baseball has been built around it. And the stats are so identifiable and recognizable. Batting average and it's teminology is used to describe success rates of nearly any situation.

 

Fielding percentage? Errors? not so much.

 

Really the only time defense gets the bigger nod is the view of the Gold Glove over the Silver Slugger. But even then, Gold Gloves frequently carry controversy. You never hear about questionable choices for Silver Slugger...

[moonslav59]

Some of the discussion was about what we might have done prior to obtaining Moreland. Now that we have him, it is difficult to see us moving Devers off of 3rd this year. We probably jst have to live with the errors and hope for some improvement with experience.

 

I agree with the concept of using Martinez in left field. He is a professional hitter and has done better in the outfield than I expected. Beni is a quallity hitter and will likely bring his numbers up this year. He isn't as gifted defensively as Bradley but can do a decent job there. I would suggest resting Bradley and that indeed might result in him becoming more of a reserve outfielder. His trade value doesn't look that good right now.

 

My view of Hanley is that he is in his mid 30's now, is a big muscular guy and probably needs more rest days than he has been getting. I have noticed for some time now he is not doing well with fast balls and he is getting a lot of those. Reducing his plate appearances sounds like a good idea, whether it be DH or 1st so he can stay fresh and produce better when he is in the game. We have a hot Moreland who is a good 1st baseman so that is no problem and we hope to allow Swihart to get more appearances along the way so some DH reps can come from him.

 

If anything, I'd move Devers to DH this year not 1B, but even that is not likely to ever be the best way to set things up.

 

We have to hope Devers can improve on the fly and get to a point of near respectability by October.

 

[moonslav59]

Certainly, depending on the play itself.

 

But most fans identify with offense. Baseball cards have revolved around it for decades. Fantasy baseball has been built around it. And the stats are so identifiable and recognizable. Batting average and it's teminology is used to describe success rates of nearly any situation.

 

Fielding percentage? Errors? not so much.

 

Really the only time defense gets the bigger nod is the view of the Gold Glove over the Silver Slugger. But even then, Gold Gloves frequently carry controversy. You never hear about questionable choices for Silver Slugger...

 

None of this means many fans prefer to watch HRs over great defensive plays.

 

Look at the top plays of the night on ESPN. How many are hits?

[notin]

None of this means many fans prefer to watch HRs over great defensive plays.

 

Look at the top plays of the night on ESPN. How many are hits?

 

True, the WebGem has become an ESPN staple.

 

But historically, big hits have been revered more than big defensive plays. We all remember Bucky Dent's home run. But how many remember Lou Pinella's sun-blind stab of Jerry Remy's single to RF?

[Maxbialystock]

Thing is, you move JBJ to a reserve Of role and he cannot recover. You permanently damage his value. You have to ride him through the end of June. If he continues to suck, then you make a move before the deadline. If he creeps back to like and has one of his 1.1 OPS months like he seems to do when the weather gets hot, then you ride with him.

 

Can't disagree with that. Plus I trust Cora, whose preference is to play him.

[Maxbialystock]

True, the WebGem has become an ESPN staple.

 

But historically, big hits have been revered more than big defensive plays. We all remember Bucky Dent's home run. But how many remember Lou Pinella's sun-blind stab of Jerry Remy's single to RF?

 

I, on the other hand, remember a Dodgers-Yankees WS game in a late inning when Yogi Berra, a great clutch hitter, hit one down the left field (opposite field) line and Sandy Amoros caught. I remember Willie Mays grab in the 1954 WS, game 1, vs. Vic Wertz and the Guardians. I remember Jeter's flip to home on the off-line throw from the outfield. But I don't remember the name of the Sox first baseman who let that grounder go between his legs.

 

On the other hand, I'm losing track of all the great JBJ and Mookie grabs because they do it so often.

[illinoisredsox]

True, the WebGem has become an ESPN staple.

 

But historically, big hits have been revered more than big defensive plays. We all remember Bucky Dent's home run. But how many remember Lou Pinella's sun-blind stab of Jerry Remy's single to RF?

 

I do remember it, and thanks for reminding me:mad:

[illinoisredsox]

IBut I don't remember the name of the Sox first baseman who let that grounder go between his legs.

 

That was Dick Stuart:D

[moonslav59]

True, the WebGem has become an ESPN staple.

 

But historically, big hits have been revered more than big defensive plays. We all remember Bucky Dent's home run. But how many remember Lou Pinella's sun-blind stab of Jerry Remy's single to RF?

 

I remember Dwight Evans' catch in the '75 World Series.

[Maxbialystock]

Think of it this way, how many more singles and doubles would JBJ need to have every week to make him a plus on offense?

 

Let's say he gets 30 PAs a week. Right now, he gets about 5 hits and 2 walks every 20 PAs. If he got 2 more singles, he's have an OBP of .272. 5 more singles is .364.

 

Does JBJ make 2-5 more defensive players more than the average CF'er per week?

 

Maybe 2 but not likely 3. Now, change a single to a double or HR, and the choice is not so clear.

 

You left out advancing the runners with 1 or 0 outs. Bradley is also lousy at that. Plus don't forget that his WAR is currently -.4.

 

To me the best case for JBJ is dead simple. Cora wants him out there, and I trust Cora.

[notin]

I remember Dwight Evans' catch in the '75 World Series.

 

I'm sure you also remember Bernie Carbo's home run. And there was that guy whatsisname who hit one off the foul pole in game 6. I think that hit might have made its way into pop culture lore at some point...

[moonslav59]

I'm sure you also remember Bernie Carbo's home run. And there was that guy whatsisname who hit one off the foul pole in game 6. I think that hit might have made its way into pop culture lore at some point...

 

Yes, Brnie's HR and Fisk willing the ball to stay fair.

 

Of course, I remember hits... big hits.

 

Personally, I enjoy great defensive plays more- day to day.

 

Maybe it's because I was never a good hitter but was pretty darn good on defense, if can say so myself.