A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

Duffy has now pitched 27 innings in Fenway and has allowed 8 HRS. I don't think good park for him.

 

Yep, he probably has nightmares about Green Monsters.

[Maxbialystock]

They haven't won the series against the Stros yet. But if they blank them again today that'd be pretty impressive.

 

Good grief. I didn’t see that game coming up. Go Astros!!

[jacksonianmarch]

I watched big chunks of the Yankees winning 2 of 3 vs. the Astros, which is what drove my somewhat intemperate statement that they are better.

 

All along I have thought we have the edge in pitching, but the Yankees staff gave up exactly 1 run in 3 games in Houston. Last night Severino completely dominated them for 9 innings. Most surprising was the 2d game when Montgomery started and only went 1 inning. The Yankees bullpen then held the Astros scoreless for 8 more innings to get the shutout.

 

We know the Yankees have hitting, but the pitching is a shocker--to me anyway.

 

I certainly hope all the naysayers are right, that the Yankees are just lucky right now and will quickly fade away--like June swoon.

 

Since the weather improved, our team has been on fire. The bats came to life, but the pitching really started to locate. It's been a blast to watch. The crazy thing is, we can get a lot better. Sanchez and Stanton have been way below career marks. Gray had been terrible. Betances was allowing hits rather than just imploding with command. Betances has come to life of late. Last 6 appearances, 5.1IP 3H 0ER 2BB 11K. And Gray pitched very well against a good lineup in Houston. Stinks to see JMont go down, although German has far more electric stuff and has the higher boom or bust potential. Frazier is now healthy should another OFer go down.

[moonslav59]

from soxprospects.com...

 

A big acquisition before the 2017 season, Tyler Thornburg looks like he is almost ready to contribute in Boston. He started his rehab appearance on Monday and struck out the side while allowing one hit for the PawSox. Kevin Dillon of MassLive.com wrote about Thornburg's difficult recovery from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery.

[Bellhorn04]

Looks like the Yanks are indeed going to shut out the Stros 3 games in a row.

[Kimmi]

Yankees just took 2 of 3 at Houston, including two shutouts, which I think nicely balances us taking 2 of 3 from the Yankees.

 

The Yankees are streaking right now. They played well against Houston. That said, they are not as good as they currently look.

[Kimmi]

I'm not exactly scared of the Yankees. There's not much emotion involved. But yes, I'm concerned that they may end up ahead of us at the end of the year. The way it looks right now we might win 98 games and it might not be enough. Under the previous Wild Card system that wasn't such a big deal, but it is now.

 

The Yankees may very well end up ahead of us, just as we might very well end up ahead of them. I'm not saying that we will run away with the division, but if anyone thinks that the Yankees will run away with the division, they have another thing coming.

 

The Sox are just as good an they are.

[Kimmi]

After the ASB, we have 41 games out of 66 against utterly awful teams. That doesn’t include teams like Minnesota and Seattle who we do play but I anticipate they’ll end up at .500 or better at seasons end. Breaks down like this

 

66 games total

10 vs TB

4 vs KC

8 vs BAL

6 vs CWS

4 vs TEX

2 vs MIA

4 vs DET

3 vs OAK

 

I expect all of the above teams to be at or near the bottoms of their divisions. If the Yanks can be close come the ASB, then we win the division just due to the utter lack of competition faced afterwards. The gauntlet we are running now is just ridiculous and we are staying strong.

 

In May, we have 17 games against teams likely to be in contention for the playoffs.

 

If Baltimore could play the Yankees all the time, they'd be in first place.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Devers is terrible at 3b. Do they have to move him to 1b next year?

[jacksonianmarch]

If Baltimore could play the Yankees all the time, they'd be in first place.

 

Same could be said for Oakland against Boston.

[Maxbialystock]

In line with a realistic view of 2018, I will state the obvious and say that, even though the Sox lead the Yankees by 2.5 games and have a better run differential, the Yankees are already the better team.

 

I base that on 2 things. The most important is that the Yankees have a terrific won-lost record despite a slow start--they are right behind us. The other is that they have played the tougher schedule to date--14 of 28 games vs winning teams vs. our 9 of 29 games vs winning teams. We have played 8 games against the three MLB bottom feeders (Baltimore, KC, and Detroit) and the Yankees have played them 4 times.

 

I don't see the above as incontestible, but it's what I think.

 

 

.

.....

.

 

Just thought I'd bring this up again now that the Yankees have taken 3 of 4 in Houston and the Sox look absolutely abysmal vs. the Rangers. That freight behind us is just 1 game back.

[Slasher9]

He ain't worth the price, that's for sure. But he is still a viable starter. Three good starts (0 runs, 0 runs, 1 run) out of 6 ain't bad.

 

Price

[moonslav59]

Devers is terrible at 3b. Do they have to move him to 1b next year?

 

Preaching to the one-man choir.

 

I thought last winter was the ideal time to do it. We needed a 1Bman. Moose was on the market this year. He's not great at 3B, but he's adequate.

 

[Larry Cook]

from soxprospects.com...

 

A big acquisition before the 2017 season, Tyler Thornburg looks like he is almost ready to contribute in Boston. He started his rehab appearance on Monday and struck out the side while allowing one hit for the PawSox. Kevin Dillon of MassLive.com wrote about Thornburg's difficult recovery from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery.

 

I watched him pitch the other night and he is not ready. Shotty control and no movement

on any pitches.

 

In the pros, he would get lit up worse than price, if that is possible!

[oldtimer]

Preaching to the one-man choir.

 

I thought last winter was the ideal time to do it. We needed a 1Bman. Moose was on the market this year. He's not great at 3B, but he's adequate.

 

 

Devers is still very young and his bat is good and should get better if he avoids chasing pitches out of the zone. He seems to have good reflexes at third but doesn't seem to stay focused. Can he learn? Seven errors in early May is not a good sign as between 35 and 40 is the likely target for the year. Looking back over history, one guy had 3 and another 4 as an indication of the best ever. I would be happy if Devers could stay under 20 but that is very unlikely. Like you, I preferred that they considered first base for him and pick up a quality 3rd baseman but now we have what we have and he is going to stay at 3rd. Possibly Hanley will be gone next season as will be Bradley. Keep Moreland around as a first base/DH, pick up a defensive CF who can hit his weight and find a second catcher who can hit a little.

 

Our pitching staff also needs some work. Price is with us long term and his issue is command at this point. He can still help the team despite his poor initial showing this year. The BP is our weakest spot. The comment on Thornburg is troublesome as we had some hope that he would be ready soon.

[jad]

Devers is still very young and his bat is good and should get better if he avoids chasing pitches out of the zone. He seems to have good reflexes at third but doesn't seem to stay focused. Can he learn? Seven errors in early May is not a good sign as between 35 and 40 is the likely target for the year. Looking back over history, one guy had 3 and another 4 as an indication of the best ever. I would be happy if Devers could stay under 20 but that is very unlikely. Like you, I preferred that they considered first base for him and pick up a quality 3rd baseman but now we have what we have and he is going to stay at 3rd. Possibly Hanley will be gone next season as will be Bradley. Keep Moreland around as a first base/DH, pick up a defensive CF who can hit his weight and find a second catcher who can hit a little.

 

Our pitching staff also needs some work. Price is with us long term and his issue is command at this point. He can still help the team despite his poor initial showing this year. The BP is our weakest spot. The comment on Thornburg is troublesome as we had some hope that he would be ready soon.

 

Something must be wrong with this board, or I'm not thinking clearly. Because I seem to agree with all of this!

[moonslav59]

Devers is still very young and his bat is good and should get better if he avoids chasing pitches out of the zone. He seems to have good reflexes at third but doesn't seem to stay focused. Can he learn? Seven errors in early May is not a good sign as between 35 and 40 is the likely target for the year. Looking back over history, one guy had 3 and another 4 as an indication of the best ever. I would be happy if Devers could stay under 20 but that is very unlikely. Like you, I preferred that they considered first base for him and pick up a quality 3rd baseman but now we have what we have and he is going to stay at 3rd. Possibly Hanley will be gone next season as will be Bradley. Keep Moreland around as a first base/DH, pick up a defensive CF who can hit his weight and find a second catcher who can hit a little. ...

 

It's not just the 7 errors. He's made many more mistakes than 7. Some still got the guy out- others did not.

 

He'd probably make some errors at 1B, too, but I still think that's where he'll eventually end up.

 

Yes, he has some quick reflexes, and that's a big plus at 3B, but I just don't think it's a good idea to put a young kid into a learning curve situation during a heated championship year or two. It's a lot of pressure. If he keeps contributing to losses due to his glove/arm, his great offensive abilities will be partially diminished.

[notin]

It's not just the 7 errors. He's made many more mistakes than 7. Some still got the guy out- others did not.

 

He'd probably make some errors at 1B, too, but I still think that's where he'll eventually end up.

 

Yes, he has some quick reflexes, and that's a big plus at 3B, but I just don't think it's a good idea to put a young kid into a learning curve situation during a heated championship year or two. It's a lot of pressure. If he keeps contributing to losses due to his glove/arm, his great offensive abilities will be partially diminished.

 

 

The general theme here is - if you can hit, you don't need to field your position well. But, according to the Vazquez and Bradley threads, if you can field your position extremely well, you still better hit.

 

Players spend much more time in the field manning their positions and many make more plays than they get plate appearances. Yet fans seem to like having these defensive positions need to be governed by offensive output alone?

 

Devers is not good at third. He might get better, but that doesn't mean he will ever be good. Really, first base or DH is probably in his future.

 

(Maybe the Bradley detractors would not mind seeing Devers to DH and JD to LF, Benitendi to CF and Bradley to the bench? Not sure who mans third in that scenario. Maybe the Sox will just have to pitch everyone away...)

[Maxbialystock]

Me, I'm fine with Devers at 3B, especially when the Sox have given up just 5 unearned runs this year. I have already seen improvement in his throws to 1B, and he has also made some nice plays on weak grounders where he had to go fast and hard to get the ball and then make a good throw.

 

Nunez, on the other hand, gets almost no errors because he has so little range and to me is a bigger liability at 2b than Devers at 3b.

 

Besides, who gives a darn about errors when the real issue in 2018 is the rapid deterioration in Red Sox pitching?

 

In the first 19 games when the Sox went 17-2, they gave up 53 runs in 19 games, including 7 extra innings. In the most recent 12 games the Sox have given up 65 runs--roughly twice as many runs per game. We are now losing more games by 4 or more runs than we are winning by 4 or more runs.

 

And right now the rotation and bullpen are equally bad--or so I think without having looking up the numbers.

[jacksonianmarch]

There is a theme with bullpens. Starve them and they succeed, feed them and they struggle. Bullpen performance is usually inversely proportional to how often you use them.

[Maxbialystock]

The general theme here is - if you can hit, you don't need to field your position well. But, according to the Vazquez and Bradley threads, if you can field your position extremely well, you still better hit.

 

Players spend much more time in the field manning their positions and many make more plays than they get plate appearances. Yet fans seem to like having these defensive positions need to be governed by offensive output alone?

 

Devers is not good at third. He might get better, but that doesn't mean he will ever be good. Really, first base or DH is probably in his future.

 

(Maybe the Bradley detractors would not mind seeing Devers to DH and JD to LF, Benitendi to CF and Bradley to the bench? Not sure who mans third in that scenario. Maybe the Sox will just have to pitch everyone away...)

 

Count me among those who underwrite fielding lapses by productive hitters and antagonistic toward JBJ when he goes into one his now almost legendary slumps. His BA is below the mendoza line and his ops is .545. I have not forgotten 2014 when he was handed the starting CF job on a platter and ended up in Pawtucket. Since then, he has definitely had some good periods at the plate, but right now he is a liability despite his defensive prowess.

 

If it were up to me, I'd keep Devers at 3B, let JD play left field, move Beni to CF, and use JBJ in late innings for his defense.

[S5Dewey]

The general theme here is - if you can hit, you don't need to field your position well. But, according to the Vazquez and Bradley threads, if you can field your position extremely well, you still better hit.

 

Players spend much more time in the field manning their positions and many make more plays than they get plate appearances. Yet fans seem to like having these defensive positions need to be governed by offensive output alone?

 

 

 

Excellent post. Thank you.

 

For some reason I can't understand some people are more willing to tolerate poor defense than they are poor offense.

[moonslav59]

The general theme here is - if you can hit, you don't need to field your position well. But, according to the Vazquez and Bradley threads, if you can field your position extremely well, you still better hit.

 

Players spend much more time in the field manning their positions and many make more plays than they get plate appearances. Yet fans seem to like having these defensive positions need to be governed by offensive output alone?

 

Devers is not good at third. He might get better, but that doesn't mean he will ever be good. Really, first base or DH is probably in his future.

 

(Maybe the Bradley detractors would not mind seeing Devers to DH and JD to LF, Benitendi to CF and Bradley to the bench? Not sure who mans third in that scenario. Maybe the Sox will just have to pitch everyone away...)

 

Putting Nunez at 3B once Pedey returns is an option, but I'm not sure there would be much of a defensive upgrade with that shuffle.

[jacksonianmarch]

Nunez is a better defensive 3b than Devers.

[mvp 78]

Nunez is a better defensive 3b than Devers.

 

Nah fam.

[moonslav59]

Nunez is a better defensive 3b than Devers.

 

Agreed but not by a whole lot. Plus, he looks hobbled.

[notin]

Excellent post. Thank you.

 

For some reason I can't understand some people are more willing to tolerate poor defense than they are poor offense.

 

Offense is more fun to watch and more easily understandable.

 

Defense, especially in this "post-Fielding percentage and errors" era, is much tougher to quantify and harder to relate directly to wins.

 

That doesn't mean defense is less important.

[notin]

Putting Nunez at 3B once Pedey returns is an option, but I'm not sure there would be much of a defensive upgrade with that shuffle.

 

Even if that was the best solution - which i doubt, as I'd rather have Bradley in CF than Nunez at 3B - Pedroia is still without a return date and there could be a lot of baseball between now and when that scenario is even possible...

[Maxbialystock]

Devers is 3d on the team in total bases and 4th in rbi's. His overall WAR, .3, ain't much, but Nunez's is -.5. I do not understand the enmity directed toward Devers and the free ride accorded Nunez, who I might add has 9 more years professional experience than Devers.

 

To me Devers at 3b is a good investment for the future who is contributing now and will only get better. Do I need to remind this board of other recent Sox thirdbasemen? Mike Lowell was pretty good back in 2007-9. Later came Middlebrooks and the great Pablo Sandoval.

[Maxbialystock]

Offense is more fun to watch and more easily understandable.

 

Defense, especially in this "post-Fielding percentage and errors" era, is much tougher to quantify and harder to relate directly to wins.

 

That doesn't mean defense is less important.

 

Meh. 80% of defense is the pitcher on the mound.