A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[moonslav59]

Wasn't somebody suggesting moving betts back to 2B before we signed Nunez?

[moonslav59]

A Tale of Two Pitchers...

 

Pitcher A

2012: 10-7 2.54 in 143 innings (AA + AAA)

2013: 8-7 3.46 in 135 innings (AAA)

2014: 6-5 3.42 in 100 IP (AAA)

2015: 3-4 3.96 in 52 IP (MLB as a starter only)

2016: 12-5 2.67 in first 19 starts (MLB- 16 GS'd with 0-3 ER & 3 GS'd with 4-5 ER)

Then, injury...

 

Pitcher B

2016: 8-9 2.47 (102 IP in MLB before being traded to BOS)

(Injured-playing hurt? 3-5 4.59 in 69 IP with Sox in '16.)

2017: 17-6 3.32 (174 IP in MLB)

 

 

[moonslav59]

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/clubhouse_insider/2018/04/even_dave_dombrowski_didnt_expect_red_sox_record_start

[Slasher9]

But he was choking a puppy when he said it...

 

+2 points.

[Nick]

Magic Number down to 140.

[Slasher9]

Magic Number down to 140.

Post of the day. At 4 in the morning no less.

[OH FOY]

Sox hit 17 HRS last year on the 1st Pitch. Houston hit 55. So far the Sox have hit 6 so far this year on the first pitch. Almost one-third of last seasons total, and only a tenth of the season played.

Cora has made a difference.

[Maxbialystock]

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/clubhouse_insider/2018/04/even_dave_dombrowski_didnt_expect_red_sox_record_start

 

Hmm. Some of DD's comments sound exactly like those stats you presented maybe a month ago--saying several Sox were sure to hit better this year.

[Kimmi]

Magic Number down to 140.

 

Haha. Well played.

[Kimmi]

Sox hit 17 HRS last year on the 1st Pitch. Houston hit 55. So far the Sox have hit 6 so far this year on the first pitch. Almost one-third of last seasons total, and only a tenth of the season played.

Cora has made a difference.

 

The philosophies that Cora has brought with him from Houston seem to be working extremely well. Not just with being more aggressive on the first pitch, but his overall with everything. It's early yet, but I'm impressed.

[Kimmi]

Hmm. Some of DD's comments sound exactly like those stats you presented maybe a month ago--saying several Sox were sure to hit better this year.

 

The talent was there last year too. For whatever reason (not named JD Martinez or 'protection'), the Sox hitters largely underperformed. They were due to bounce back this year.

[OH FOY]

You think aggressive approach would have a big advantage for swinging at everything and big difference, for walks and strikeouts.

No.

Houston only walked 62 less times then the Sox last year. 162 games that's, minimal.

But the Sox struck out, 137 more times then Houston last year.

Houston was not only aggressive, but were selective too.

That's were you want to be as a team on Offense.

[cp176]

The talent was there last year too. For whatever reason (not named JD Martinez or 'protection'), the Sox hitters largely underperformed. They were due to bounce back this year.

 

Don't you think that maybe JD has had a little to do with the numbers we have been putting up? I mean he is doing ok isn't he?

[moonslav59]

Hmm. Some of DD's comments sound exactly like those stats you presented maybe a month ago--saying several Sox were sure to hit better this year.

 

We had a alot of players with nagging injuries that one could assume affected their numbers. Some posters seemed to choose to believe that perhaps the 2017 numbers were who those hitters truly were and that maybe the 2015-2016 numbers were the "flukes" or "outlier" seasons.

 

The sheer magnitude of players that declined from 2016 to 2017 was stunning. Only Vaz improved. The other 9 top PA players from 2016 declined.

 

The odds seemed to favor more players doing better in 2018 than worse or the same.

[moonslav59]

Don't you think that maybe JD has had a little to do with the numbers we have been putting up? I mean he is doing ok isn't he?

 

JD has made a difference, especially with Pedey out. We'd be playing HRam (Moreland at 1B), Swihart or _____ instead at DH.

 

I think the change of approach and more healthy hitters is a major factor as well.

 

HRam's surgery has been a big success, so far.

 

Mookie's injury is healed.

 

Moreland's toe is healed.

 

Bogey's injury looked healed before his new one.

 

Edited April 21, 2018 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Warning: Teenie to tiny sample sizes alert.

 

Here are some very intersting Sox splits to ponder and perhaps disuss:

 

25 PAs with the bases loaded

.476 5 30 (1.678 OPS)

 

.977 RISP

.982 RISP & 2 outs

.905 Men on Base

 

1.186 High Leverage

.763 Late & Close

 

Best innings

1.047 1st

1.011 6th

.964 2nd

.951 9th

.933 extra innings

 

1.341 3rd time vs SP'er

.927 1st time

.791 2nd time

 

Lefty-Righty splits

.894 vs RHP

.703 vs LHP

Curiosly, .949 RHB vs RHP and .772 LHB vs RHP

 

.870 Home

.847 Away

 

.991 25 year old or under

.899 31-35 y/o

.694 26-30 (prime)

 

.441 Catcher OPS

.111 PH'er OPS (9 PAs)

All other 8 positions are above .800!!!!!!

1.114 RF

1.016 SS

.993 1B

.889 LF

.858 DH

.857 CF

.819 3B

.813 2B

 

Talk among yourselves.

[oldtimer]

JD has made a difference, especially with Pedey out. We'd be playing HRam (Moreland at 1B), Swihart or _____ instead at DH.

 

I think the change of approach and more healthy hitters is a major factor as well.

 

HRam's surgery has been a big success, so far.

 

Mookie's injury is healed.

 

Moreland's toe is healed.

 

Bogey's injury looked healed before his new one.

 

 

Back after 3 days on the road. You give no credit for the change in leadership and coaching. It has been a factor in what is happening. Just hard to ascribe what percent is due to health, JDM or new coaching. Looking forward to Bogaerts return, as he was killing it before his injury.

[moonslav59]

Back after 3 days on the road. You give no credit for the change in leadership and coaching. It has been a factor in what is happening. Just hard to ascribe what percent is due to health, JDM or new coaching. Looking forward to Bogaerts return, as he was killing it before his injury.

 

I've credited Cora several times on other posts.

 

I loved the Cora signing and defendied him after the game one criticism.

 

I love our new approach (and mentioned that in the post- obviously due to Cora and our coaches) at the plate and often criticized JF for not doing anything about it in the past.

 

If I tried to make every post all-encompassing, they's be 3 pages long and highly repetitive.

 

[Emp9]

Offense-wise, We lost Ortiz to retirement (clubhouse-wise too I would bet). We lost Pedroia to injury. More or less lost XB to injury, he returned but never really recovered fully. HanRam was playing hurt all year. 3B was a mess. That’s my top 5, and these things start to add up after a while. Besides approach, adding JD, who’s a great hitter not just a HR hitter, to an offense who’s only major flaw was lack of power and HRs has aready paid off.

 

Pitching. Well. Again Injuries. The bad: Wright went from 33 games the year previous to 5 games. Price went from 35 games to 16 games. Or something like that? Don’t quote me on exact number of games started. The good: Pom took Wright’s place as our #2. Sale took Porcello’s place as our #1. The ugly: Porcello took his own place with the 2015 version of himself that went away from the sole reason we signed him in the first place (his Sinker) (AGAIN!) (this is Twice he’s done this!!!!) (MOTHERf***ER!!!) and changed his s*** for no justifiable reason whatsoever. Why would one abandon one of baseball’s top Sinkers for a middling, straight as an arrow, average or below league average velocity, fastball ... over launch angle trending? Really? Why would you abandon your most effective pitch, a launch angle killer, the one that induces the most ground balls, the most swing and misses, and was TOTALLY WORKING btw see CY? I just can’t understand it. Twice. He learned nothing from the last stunt. ... twice [Deep breathes. Just breathe... ignore the oncoming migraine]

 

 

THIS years team so great tho! I love this team. Having a blast:o

[Hugh2]

Anyone still worried about Mookie Betts?

[Emp9]

Anyone still worried about Mookie Betts?

 

I’m worried about his personal tax bracket after 2021. Does that count?

[Hugh2]

I’m worried about his personal tax bracket after 2021. Does that count?

 

Yes, he's going to owe uncle sam a big sum of money pretty soon.

[moonslav59]

Just Mookie's defense alone is worth a lot.

[Emp9]

Yes, he's going to owe uncle sam a big sum of money pretty soon.

 

Did you see fangraphs’ latest piece on Mookie? It’s a good read with two gifs that are fun to watch. I don’t 100% agree w/ them. Obviously most of his power and HRs come from pulling the ball (can say that about most hitters), I just think he uses the whole field pretty well when not hitting a HR.

 

They just did a piece on Moncada as well, which is kinda weird as I was just asking about him on here (Pretty much for fantasy baseball purposes). Some of it’s over my head but... I think his 2 HRs this week has woken some people up.

[moonslav59]

Did you see fangraphs’ latest piece on Mookie? It’s a good read with two gifs that are fun to watch. I don’t 100% agree w/ them. Obviously most of his power and HRs come from pulling the ball (can say that about most hitters), I just think he uses the whole field pretty well when not hitting a HR.

 

They just did a piece on Moncada as well, which is kinda weird as I was just asking about him on here (Pretty much for fantasy baseball purposes). Some of it’s over my head but... I think his 2 HRs this week has woken some people up.

 

I've always felt like Moncada would become a great ML hitter, even if he never solves the high K rate issue.

 

He may end up being a career DH.

[Emp9]

I've always felt like Moncada would become a great ML hitter, even if he never solves the high K rate issue.

 

He may end up being a career DH.

 

What have you thought of him defensively, i thought he was 5 tool? If he was on the Sox I’d care about his defense, but now he’s simply fantasy fodder to me.

[moonslav59]

What have you thought of him defensively, i thought he was 5 tool? If he was on the Sox I’d care about his defense, but now he’s simply fantasy fodder to me.

 

I haven't seen him play defense since leaving Boston. I never liked his defense, but he is young and athletic, so I guess he could develop into a decent fielder somewhere.

 

His defensive numbers have not been bad in his tiny sample sizes.

 

2B: +1.9 UZR/150 and +7 DRS (612 innings)

3B: +11.7 UZR/150 and 0 DRS in just 35 innings

 

[Kimmi]

You think aggressive approach would have a big advantage for swinging at everything and big difference, for walks and strikeouts.

No.

Houston only walked 62 less times then the Sox last year. 162 games that's, minimal.

But the Sox struck out, 137 more times then Houston last year.

Houston was not only aggressive, but were selective too.

That's were you want to be as a team on Offense.

 

Absolutely. Being aggressive does not mean being stupidly aggressive. The Sox are being aggressive, but at the same time they have remained very disciplined.

[Kimmi]

Don't you think that maybe JD has had a little to do with the numbers we have been putting up? I mean he is doing ok isn't he?

 

Of course he does. He's a good hitter who contributes to the offense.

 

What I don't agree with is that the other players are hitting better this year because they are being 'protected' by JD. IMO, the others would be hitting better this year even if JD had not been signed.

[moonslav59]

Of course he does. He's a good hitter who contributes to the offense.

 

What I don't agree with is that the other players are hitting better this year because they are being 'protected' by JD. IMO, the others would be hitting better this year even if JD had not been signed.

 

I think it might help slightly, but i agree. I think our offense wouldhave been much better had we signed Duda or Morrison, instead of JMart.

 

The way Moreland is hitting...maybe not.