A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[Kimmi]

dgale is a very reasonable fellow.

 

But there's no way it will be a smooth ride to winning the division. It's doable obviously but tough. A smooth ride to winning the wild card, perhaps.

 

Just to clarify, he did say a smooth ride to the playoffs, which is a lot different than saying a smooth ride to winning the division, given the rest of the AL competition.

[Maxbialystock]

Sorry, but I'm not buying the thesis that a 6-1 record against the Rays and Marlins should be heavily discounted if not completely ignored.

 

Last year the two best AL records, Guardians and Astros, won at 63% and 62% clips. The rock bottom Tigers won 40% of their games. Statistically, that means that in a 7 game series with the Guardians and then the Astros, the Tigers win 3.

 

So, while I am confident that Sox can't keep up a 6-1 pace, I think the good start is bonafide. As Cora has already said--thinking no doubt of the weak hitting--this team will get better.

[mvp 78]

Sorry, but I'm not buying the thesis that a 6-1 record against the Rays and Marlins should be heavily discounted if not completely ignored.

 

Last year the two best AL records, Guardians and Astros, won at 63% and 62% clips. The rock bottom Tigers won 40% of their games. Statistically, that means that in a 7 game series with the Guardians and then the Astros, the Tigers win 3.

 

So, while I am confident that Sox can't keep up a 6-1 pace, I think the good start is bonafide. As Cora has already said--thinking no doubt of the weak hitting--this team will get better.

 

In order to win the division, you still have to beat the below .500 teams. Discounting the wins when the offense isn't firing on all cylinders is definitely pushing it. Sox fans should be happy about the start.

[Kimmi]

Pretty good start by 25 year old rookie Bobby Poyner, 2015 14th round pick our of Florida. Workman and Scott gives us depth, stashed away in Pawtucket.

 

6 years of team control.

 

Kimmi approves.

 

Maybe he will be our closer next year when Kimbrel leaves!

[Kimmi]

Yep, the words '6 years of team control' bring tears of profound, almost inexpressible joy to her eyes.

 

(Just teasing ya, Kimmi.)

 

It actually does, figuratively speaking. LOL

[Kimmi]

Haven't heard a soul complain about our record for sure. Outside of what I think is a damn good pitching staff, I choose to withhold judgement on this bunch until we start playing the teams that the sport's gurus think are the good ones.

 

No one is complaining about our 6-1 record, except for those saying we should be 7-0. LOL

 

But it would be very remiss of me not to mention that we have only won (or lost) one of those games decisively, the 7-3 win over the Marlins. The rest of the games could have gone either way. We are 5-1 in those games with a +4 run differential. That's hard to do. We've been a tad lucky. Not that I'm complaining.

[cp176]

No one is complaining about our 6-1 record, except for those saying we should be 7-0. LOL

 

But it would be very remiss of me not to mention that we have only won (or lost) one of those games decisively, the 7-3 win over the Marlins. The rest of the games could have gone either way. We are 5-1 in those games with a +4 run differential. That's hard to do. We've been a tad lucky. Not that I'm complaining.

 

agree although my tad's worth of luck might be bigger than most.

[Kimmi]

Some interesting hitting stats regarding the Sox' aggressive approach, courtesy of Evan Drelich:

 

As the 5-1 Sox begin their first homestand, they’re swinging at 30.1 percent of first pitches they see, 10th most per STATS. In 2017, they were last, at 21.1 percent — and it wasn’t particularly close. Next up was the Guardians, at 24.9 percent.

 

Overall, the Sox have offered at 48.1 percent of pitches per FanGraphs, up from 43.9 percent in 2017. Only the Dodgers — who employed Sox hitting coach Tim Hyers as the assistant hitting coach — swung at fewer last year. The Sox’ swing percentage this year is sixth.

 

 

Of course, the whole idea is centered on pitch selection: swing when you get a pitch you can handle. And then handle it.

 

As the Sox have pursued pitches earlier in the count, they do not seem to have encouraged wild hacks. Their swing-and-miss rate remains the third-lowest in the majors, just as it was in 2017.

 

Indeed, the pitches they're targeting seem to be much better. In 2017, the Sox swung at 62.3 percent of strikes. Take a guess: it was the lowest anywhere. And now, they’re at 72 percent, second most — practically tying them for the league lead.

 

And when the Sox swing at pitches inside the zone, they're making more contact on those pitches than anyone. They were strong in that area in 2017, in fourth place, but they're the leader right now.

 

The Sox batters have been able to be more aggressive, without losing any of their plate discipline. That's a great (though very early) sign. It hasn't translated into scoring runs yet, but my opinion is that it will.

 

I do not have any concerns about the offense.

[moonslav59]

Hope you've been following the postseason exploits of our alma mater. The #1 sign on Grace has been lit up for 2 weeks now. Fencers won the title 2 weeks ago, the women's basketball team beat UConn and Mississippi State on last second shots to win that title last weekend and the hockey team scored with 5 seconds left last night to beat Michigan and advance to the title game Saturday.

 

Now, if we can just win in men's football and basketball, I'd be thrilled!

[moonslav59]

Some interesting hitting stats regarding the Sox' aggressive approach, courtesy of Evan Drelich:

 

As the 5-1 Sox begin their first homestand, they’re swinging at 30.1 percent of first pitches they see, 10th most per STATS. In 2017, they were last, at 21.1 percent — and it wasn’t particularly close. Next up was the Guardians, at 24.9 percent.

 

Overall, the Sox have offered at 48.1 percent of pitches per FanGraphs, up from 43.9 percent in 2017. Only the Dodgers — who employed Sox hitting coach Tim Hyers as the assistant hitting coach — swung at fewer last year. The Sox’ swing percentage this year is sixth.

 

 

Of course, the whole idea is centered on pitch selection: swing when you get a pitch you can handle. And then handle it.

 

As the Sox have pursued pitches earlier in the count, they do not seem to have encouraged wild hacks. Their swing-and-miss rate remains the third-lowest in the majors, just as it was in 2017.

 

Indeed, the pitches they're targeting seem to be much better. In 2017, the Sox swung at 62.3 percent of strikes. Take a guess: it was the lowest anywhere. And now, they’re at 72 percent, second most — practically tying them for the league lead.

 

And when the Sox swing at pitches inside the zone, they're making more contact on those pitches than anyone. They were strong in that area in 2017, in fourth place, but they're the leader right now.

 

The Sox batters have been able to be more aggressive, without losing any of their plate discipline. That's a great (though very early) sign. It hasn't translated into scoring runs yet, but my opinion is that it will.

 

I do not have any concerns about the offense.

 

Thanks, kimmi.

 

Good stuff!

[Bellhorn04]

Just to clarify, he did say a smooth ride to the playoffs, which is a lot different than saying a smooth ride to winning the division, given the rest of the AL competition.

 

That's fine, but I think we can all agree that's there a huge difference between winning the division and making it to a wild card game. Some folks on this board don't even consider the wild card games to be the playoffs.

[mvp 78]

That's fine, but I think we can all agree that's there a huge difference between winning the division and making it to a wild card game. Some folks on this board don't even consider the wild card games to be the playoffs.

 

The best folks.

[a700hitter]

That's fine, but I think we can all agree that's there a huge difference between winning the division and making it to a wild card game. Some folks on this board don't even consider the wild card games to be the playoffs.

They aren't. It is a 1 game elimination. Can't use the plural playoffs for that.

[Kimmi]

That's fine, but I think we can all agree that's there a huge difference between winning the division and making it to a wild card game. Some folks on this board don't even consider the wild card games to be the playoffs.

 

Yes, there is a difference. But my mantra is to get to the playoffs, then anything can happen.

 

The wild card game is part of the playoffs, despite what some people consider it to be.

 

Besides, I think the Sox have a very good shot at the division. Not smooth sailing, but a very good shot.

[Spudboy]

They aren't. It is a 1 game elimination. Can't use the plural playoffs for that.

 

No, but one could say "Playoff game".

[moonslav59]

They aren't. It is a 1 game elimination. Can't use the plural playoffs for that.

 

So, in the NFL, the first round is not "playoffs?"

[a700hitter]

So, in the NFL, the first round is not "playoffs?"

Oh, you took me seriously.

[moonslav59]

Oh, you took me seriously.

 

My mistake.

[moonslav59]

2018 Team Starting Pitching

 

WAR

1.4 BOS

1.1 NYY

1.0 LAD

1.0 HOU

The Sox 1.4 WAR is equal to the 8th and 9th place teams ccombined.

 

ERA

0.86 BOS

1.99 LAD

(We are at less than 50% of the secon place team.)

 

ERA-

21 BOS

53 LAD

58 MN

60 HOU

61 NYY

 

WHIP

0.95 BOS

1.06 NYY

1.08 NYM

1.13 AZ& LAD

 

RP'ing

T5th in WAR at 0.4

20th in WHIP at 1.30

 

Offense

19th in WAR at +0.4

21st in OPS at .683

21st in Runs scored at 24 (3rd place is double ours!)

 

Defense

17th in UZR/150 at +0.4

23rd in DRS at -4

[oldtimer]

2018 Team Starting Pitching

 

WAR

1.4 BOS

1.1 NYY

1.0 LAD

1.0 HOU

The Sox 1.4 WAR is equal to the 8th and 9th place teams ccombined.

 

ERA

0.86 BOS

1.99 LAD

(We are at less than 50% of the secon place team.)

 

ERA-

21 BOS

53 LAD

58 MN

60 HOU

61 NYY

 

WHIP

0.95 BOS

1.06 NYY

1.08 NYM

1.13 AZ& LAD

 

RP'ing

T5th in WAR at 0.4

20th in WHIP at 1.30

 

Offense

19th in WAR at +0.4

21st in OPS at .683

21st in Runs scored at 24 (3rd place is double ours!)

 

Defense

17th in UZR/150 at +0.4

23rd in DRS at -4

 

At the same time we have faced some of the weakest offensive teams, but perhaps the pitching against us was decent. Too early in the season for statistics to mean a lot. Maybe two weeks into May we should revisit those updated stats.

[a700hitter]

My mistake.

Try to keep up with when I am being serious and when I am being sarcastic. I don’t have the time to keep correcting you.

[moonslav59]

Try to keep up with when I am being serious and when I am being sarcastic. I don’t have the time to keep correcting you.

 

The feeling is mutual.

 

[moonslav59]

Good to see the bats come alive.

 

Bogey showing the power stroke!

 

Boo-yah!

[Nick]

With a day off on Monday and Tuesday night starting time, do we rest players again tomorrow?

 

I'm assuming Vazquez will start.

[S5Dewey]

At the same time we have faced some of the weakest offensive teams, but perhaps the pitching against us was decent. Too early in the season for statistics to mean a lot. Maybe two weeks into May we should revisit those updated stats.

 

Eight games into the season is too early to draw any conclusions about what it means for the rest of the season.

Maybe the Sox aren't going to be a good hitting team but OTOH maybe the reason the Sox haven't scored more runs is because they've faced some good pitching.

Maybe the Sox are 7-1 because they have good pitching or OTOH maybe it's because the teams they've been playing can't hit.

 

These things are going to shake out when the Sox and the Rays start playing other teams.

 

Don't get me wrong. I think the Sox are appreciably better than the Rays. I just don't think we should be assuming that just because they're better than the Rays they're also better than many other teams.

[Nick]

Eight games into the season is too early to draw any conclusions about what it means for the rest of the season.

Maybe the Sox aren't going to be a good hitting team but OTOH maybe the reason the Sox haven't scored more runs is because they've faced some good pitching.

Maybe the Sox are 7-1 because they have good pitching or OTOH maybe it's because the teams they've been playing can't hit.

 

These things are going to shake out when the Sox and the Rays start playing other teams.

 

Don't get me wrong. I think the Sox are appreciably better than the Rays. I just don't think we should be assuming that just because they're better than the Rays they're also better than many other teams.

 

All very good points and well said.

 

I'm optimistic because we won 93 games last year and we have almost everyone back. And we've added JD. He'll be as good as advertised. He makes hard contacts with lift.

 

Maybe a bigger optimism stems from hoping to have Price start 30+ games after only starting 11 games last year.

 

Porcello certainly can't be any worse, can he? He gave up 38 homers in addition to most base hits among all starters.

 

Will E Rod finally stay healthy and get over his nagging knee problems?

 

Our offense can't be any worse than last year, can it? Even without factoring in contribution from JD?

 

We can't predict injuries but I'm very optimistic.

[moonslav59]

All very good points and well said.

 

I'm optimistic because we won 93 games last year and we have almost everyone back. And we've added JD. He'll be as good as advertised. He makes hard contacts with lift.

 

Maybe a bigger optimism stems from hoping to have Price start 30+ games after only starting 11 games last year.

 

Porcello certainly can't be any worse, can he? He gave up 38 homers in addition to most base hits among all starters.

 

Will E Rod finally stay healthy and get over his nagging knee problems?

 

Our offense can't be any worse than last year, can it? Even without factoring in contribution from JD?

 

We can't predict injuries but I'm very optimistic.

 

We're 7-1 with 7 guys on the DL.

 

It's hard not to be optimistic.

 

We are also looking at having Devers and Nunez all year- two of our best hitters last year.

 

Returning from the DL players...

 

ERod

Pom

Pedey

Wright

Thornburg

Maddox

Hernandez

 

 

[S5Dewey]

All very good points and well said.

 

I'm optimistic because we won 93 games last year and we have almost everyone back. And we've added JD. He'll be as good as advertised. He makes hard contacts with lift.

 

Maybe a bigger optimism stems from hoping to have Price start 30+ games after only starting 11 games last year.

 

Porcello certainly can't be any worse, can he? He gave up 38 homers in addition to most base hits among all starters.

 

Will E Rod finally stay healthy and get over his nagging knee problems?

 

Our offense can't be any worse than last year, can it? Even without factoring in contribution from JD?

 

We can't predict injuries but I'm very optimistic.

 

I agree completely with everything you say. I'm just reminding folks that it's a little early to be printing World Series tickets.

[kenmeister]

I agree completely with everything you say. I'm just reminding folks that it's a little early to be printing World Series tickets.

 

I'm really looking forward to the first series they have with Houston!

[moonslav59]

I'm really looking forward to the first series they have with Houston!

 

Funny you should mention that!

 

I went to the box office today and bought tickets to 3 of the 4 games here in Houston. (End of May-early June)