A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[cp176]

There's something just not right with that freaking TropDome I tell ya. It's like trying to play baseball inside the Death Star or something. Don't judge anything by how the offense looked there.

 

I'm not really I guess. I was just disappointed as I'm sure most of us were with their inability to make much hard contact. I'm suffering from a last year hangover.

[Natick to NC]

I think it's PTSD from not scoring much last year and too many runners LOB.

 

PTSD is a disorder that develops in some people who have experienced a shocking, scary, or dangerous event.

 

PTSD: It is natural to feel afraid during and after a traumatic situation. Fear triggers many split-second changes in the body to help defend against danger or to avoid it. This “fight-or-flight” response is a typical reaction meant to protect a person from harm. Nearly everyone will experience a range of reactions after trauma, yet most people recover from initial symptoms naturally. Those who continue to experience problems may be diagnosed with PTSD. People who have PTSD may feel stressed or frightened even when they are not in danger.

 

Re-experiencing symptoms include:

Flashbacks—reliving the trauma over and over, including physical symptoms like a racing heart or sweating

Bad dreams

Frightening thoughts

 

Arousal and reactivity symptoms include:

Being easily startled

Feeling tense or “on edge”

Having difficulty sleeping

Having angry outbursts

Holy carp you nailed it thAnks Doc !!!! Every time I see Mitch swing and Holt and Sandy it's these cold sweats ....

[moonslav59]

There's something just not right with that freaking TropDome I tell ya. It's like trying to play baseball inside the Death Star or something. Don't judge anything by how the offense looked there.

 

I saw the opening day game in Tampa back in the closer by committee season. I thought the place was pretty nice. I enjoyed the atmosphere and not sweating in the heat and humidity of FLA.

[Bellhorn04]

I saw the opening day game in Tampa back in the closer by committee season. I thought the place was pretty nice. I enjoyed the atmosphere and not sweating in the heat and humidity of FLA.

 

Yeah, I'm just trying to figure out what it is about the place that depresses run-scoring so much. Take a look at the Rays pitching home-road splits some time. What's up with that? Is it just the park dimensions?

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Yeah, I'm just trying to figure out what it is about the place that depresses run-scoring so much. Take a look at the Rays pitching home-road splits some time. What's up with that? Is it just the park dimensions?

 

I tell you what the Sox did a good job of hitting that little triangle just to the left of dead center that was the deepest part of the park a couple of times. Home runs just about everywhere else.

[S5Dewey]

Have they put down new turf there within the past few years? It doesn't look blue any more.

[moonslav59]

Yeah, I'm just trying to figure out what it is about the place that depresses run-scoring so much. Take a look at the Rays pitching home-road splits some time. What's up with that? Is it just the park dimensions?

 

The ball just doesn't carry much for some reason. Part of the reason might also be that the Rays have had good pitching over the years, but that doesn't explain why we hit those pitchers much better in Fenway.

 

I'm fine with low-scoring games, so I guess it doesn't bother me that much.

[cp176]

The ball just doesn't carry much for some reason. Part of the reason might also be that the Rays have had good pitching over the years, but that doesn't explain why we hit those pitchers much better in Fenway.

 

I'm fine with low-scoring games, so I guess it doesn't bother me that much.

 

I love a pitcher's duel and solid defense possibly more than most. The issue I had with this series was that based on what everyone has said and written, The Rays stink.I'm going to go out on a limb (just not a very big one) and say that our pitching isn't going to be quite as consistently dominant against better competition. If we hold the yankees to 1 or 2 runs a game when we play them, you won't hear me complain about the offense one bit. I kind of liked the White Sox of the late 50's! lol

[moonslav59]

I love a pitcher's duel and solid defense possibly more than most. The issue I had with this series was that based on what everyone has said and written, The Rays stink.I'm going to go out on a limb (just not a very big one) and say that our pitching isn't going to be quite as consistently dominant against better competition. If we hold the yankees to 1 or 2 runs a game when we play them, you won't hear me complain about the offense one bit. I kind of liked the White Sox of the late 50's! lol

 

Fangraphs has our SP'ers ranked 8th. The Rays are ranked 11th. It shouldn't be a big surprise we didn't smash the ball around, especially in that park.\

 

(Their offense is ranked 22nd, so I guess our numbers reflected about what was expected. Still, a SP'er ERA of 0.75 is a nice start regardless of who we faced.)

[moonslav59]

8 of our 11 pitchers seeing action so far have a WHIP below 1.01:

 

0.50 Kimbrel

0.57 Price

0.67 Sale

0.75 Hembree

0.75 Walden

0.75 Barnes

1.00 Poyner

 

1.31 Porcello

 

3.00 Smith

 

4.50 Kelly

[mvp 78]

It's 9:47AM and JD Martinez has yet to hit a HR today. WTF?

[Nick]

I have not looked up the stats but my gut tells me that Moreland should not play much on the road. He seem to hit better at home. Now I've not looked at the stats but it feels as left field fence gives him more comfort. Knowing he can reach it without trying. Consequently he hits better at home because he simply hits it where its pitched.

 

How's that for scientific analysis?

[Nick]

It's 9:47AM and JD Martinez has yet to hit a HR today. WTF?

 

What the hell was DD thinking?

[moonslav59]

I have not looked up the stats but my gut tells me that Moreland should not play much on the road. He seem to hit better at home. Now I've not looked at the stats but it feels as left field fence gives him more comfort. Knowing he can reach it without trying. Consequently he hits better at home because he simply hits it where its pitched.

 

How's that for scientific analysis?

 

2017:

.819 home

.720 away

 

career at Fenway: .853

 

He might be a better option vs most RHPs than HRam- home or away.

 

HRam at Fenway: .799

 

2017:

.732 home

.767 away.

[harmony]

The Red Sox have the third-lowest ERA in the American League behind the Twins and ... the Rays:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2018-standard-pitching.shtml

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox have the third-lowest ERA in the American League behind the Twins and ... the Rays:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2018-standard-pitching.shtml

 

SP'er ERA:

 

0.00 MN (21 IP)

0.36 LAD (25 IP)

0.75 BOS (24 IP)

 

We're 21st in RP'er ERA at 5.73.

[SoxnCycles]

Playing 4 games on turf also factored into Cora's decisions.

 

Yup, and didn't Devers whack his knee in an ST game last week?

It's a good idea to give him a break from playing on turf.

[Kimmi]

Which illustrates how hard it is to keep a good team together - even when you're one of the richest teams.

 

The point is not about being able to keep a good team together. It's about having the farm players to take over when the free agents leave, which also gives you more money to spend on other players, due to their low salaries.

[moonslav59]

The point is not about being able to keep a good team together. It's about having the farm players to take over when the free agents leave, which also gives you more money to spend on other players, due to their low salaries.

 

Yes, even the richest teams that are also highly competitive usually have quite a few low paid or arb players filling key roles.

 

To me, that is what is going to make or break us starting in 2020 or 2021.

[Kimmi]

I get it, but a five day rest here and there should suffice. This is a full seven day rest between starts. I wouldn't even do that in August or Sept. And all past Red Sox managers have skipped backup starters (sometimes 2 of them) in the early season esp., given the days off and rain outs.

 

I thought I had read somewhere that Sale and Price would be pitching the first two games of that series, due to the off days. Maybe I'm mistaken.

[Kimmi]

We should be 4-0.

 

OTOH, we could very easily be 0-4. We won 3 one run games. Any of the games could have gone either way.

 

We should all be thrilled with 3 out of 4.

[Kimmi]

Yup, and didn't Devers whack his knee in an ST game last week?

It's a good idea to give him a break from playing on turf.

 

Good point. I had forgotten about Devers injuring his knee.

 

I have no problem with Cora's plan to give our starters regular rest. It not only keeps them fresh, but it also keeps the bench players fresh.

[Kimmi]

Yes, even the richest teams that are also highly competitive usually have quite a few low paid or arb players filling key roles.

 

To me, that is what is going to make or break us starting in 2020 or 2021.

 

I'm with you Moon. I haven't really seen anything happen yet to allay my concerns.

[harmony]

OTOH, we could very easily be 0-4. We won 3 one run games. Any of the games could have gone either way.

 

We should all be thrilled with 3 out of 4.

The Red Sox have a Pythagorean record of 2-2:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2018.shtml

 

[Kimmi]

The Red Sox have a Pythagorean record of 2-2:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2018.shtml

 

 

LOL I had actually looked at that and was going to include that in my post, along with our +1 run differential, but then didn't.

[devildavid]

It is always heart warming to see the refugees back each other.

 

All I have said is that Bogey is not a laibility and that he makes most of the plays even with what some seem to believe is a limited range.

 

Everyone who has been here for years knows I do not put much stock in some of the defensive metrics. I see Bogey making plays that he could not make routinely when he first came up.

 

I think that is improvement.

 

I do not see him making many mistakes that lose games or contribute to a loss. If other see that, they should see an eye doctor.

 

The Guy can hit when healthy.

 

Again, I do not see poor defense from him and I do not see him as a liability in any way.

 

And yes, I do know there are better defensive players at his position.

 

My last two comments met with the usual "I know more than you because I like numbers".

 

Horseshit.

 

Respond with evidence to the contrary rather than getting personal. It's not that difficult. Or point out that fielding stats are less reliable. Or just let it slide.

My take is that Bogey was being doubted last season because his injury hampered his hitting. Then it caused some to question his fielding ability. Now he's off to a hot start so you don't want to look at his overall game. If he slumps or gets hurt again don't question his fielding ability.

[moonslav59]

Quote Originally Posted by Spudboy View Post

It is always heart warming to see the refugees back each other.

 

All I have said is that Bogey is not a laibility and that he makes most of the plays even with what some seem to believe is a limited range.

 

Everyone who has been here for years knows I do not put much stock in some of the defensive metrics. I see Bogey making plays that he could not make routinely when he first came up.

 

I think that is improvement.

 

I do not see him making many mistakes that lose games or contribute to a loss. If other see that, they should see an eye doctor.

 

The Guy can hit when healthy.

 

Again, I do not see poor defense from him and I do not see him as a liability in any way.

 

And yes, I do know there are better defensive players at his position.

 

My last two comments met with the usual "I know more than you because I like numbers".

 

Horseshit

 

Give it up. The only "horseshit" is coming from your mouth and false beliefs.

 

I see you've changed your wording, so maybe I wasn't wrong anyways. Now, you say, "He's not poor on defense."

 

You said Bogey was improving on defense. I said I disagreed and showed some numbers to support my position. If you take one piece of evidence as a slap to your fragile ego, then there's not much more to say, except to tell you get over it.

 

You then falsely claimed my motivation for my post was "validation" or because of some sort of penis envy or penis bragging- I'm still not sure which one you meant.

 

Look in the mirror, spud and learn how to handle friendly disagreements.

[moonslav59]

Respond with evidence to the contrary rather than getting personal. It's not that difficult. Or point out that fielding stats are less reliable. Or just let it slide.

My take is that Bogey was being doubted last season because his injury hampered his hitting. Then it caused some to question his fielding ability. Now he's off to a hot start so you don't want to look at his overall game. If he slumps or gets hurt again don't question his fielding ability.

 

I'm fine with someone responding without any "evidence", except their own personal observation and opinion.

 

Had Spud responded, "I think he's getting better based on what I've seen," I'd have probably left it at that. Instead he goes off like a rocket.

[harmony]

I am surprised how bent of shape some posters are about opinions that differ from their own.

 

If I question an opinion I typically respond with statistics that readers can incorporate or ignore in forming their own opinions. More often than not, I offer no opinion, leaving that to the province of the reader.

 

My forum contributions are almost always limited to statistics because I watch so little MLB baseball (this old-timer prefers the radio). Statistics and observations should complement each other.

[mvp 78]

I am surprised how bent of shape some posters are about opinions that differ from their own.

 

If I question an opinion I typically respond with statistics that readers can incorporate or ignore in forming their own opinions. More often than not, I offer no opinion, leaving that to the province of the reader.

 

My forum contributions are almost always limited to statistics because I watch so little MLB baseball (this old-timer prefers the radio). Statistics and observations should complement each other.

 

Boom.