A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[moonslav59]

I know this thread is about 2018, but looking forward: maybe Poynder or Maddox can fill in as a top set-up man once we promote Smith or Thornburg to closer after Kimbrel's probable departure.

 

Replacing Pom and Porcello with $28M between their contracts will not be easy. Can we still win without all 3? Of course we can, Is it probable we will be as good? I'd say, "no."

[mvp 78]

If Poyner has a few rough starts, how soon until people are comparing him to Cla Meredith? https://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=7613&position=P&type=&gds=&gde=&season=2005

[OH FOY]

For me hard to compare LHP to RHP. His Minor stats pretty impressive. 84 K's in 60 innings last year. Figure might struggle a bit, hell of a jump. Just have patience. Edited March 26, 2018 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

The good thing is, we have pretty good minor league pen depth and a few guys coming off the DL soon.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR....

 

By Connor Byrne | March 26, 2018 at 9:56am CDT

 

The Red Sox made an attempt to extend franchise cornerstone Mookie Betts during the offseason, but the right fielder isn’t interested in signing a long-term deal at this point, Rob Bradford of WEEI reports. Betts revealed to Bradford that he discussed the extension process with teammates who have signed them, saying: “I talked to some people about it, how the process went. But I didn’t really ask details about what they got or what was offered. It was more just about how the process went. It can be a tough process. You’re dealing with a lot of money.” Betts will make a lot of money in 2018 even without a new deal – $10.5MM after a resounding victory over Boston in arbitration – and will be under team control through at least 2020. The 25-year-old’s current salary is the second-highest award ever given to a first-time arb-eligible player, and Betts should rack up a couple more significant paydays via that route if he continues without an extension.

[mvp 78]

@SoxProspects

 

Marcus Walden and Bobby Poyner, the two big surprises on the opening day roster, were named Pitcher of the Year for the @PawSox and @PortlandSeaDogs, respectively, in 2017.

[moonslav59]

@SoxProspects

 

Marcus Walden and Bobby Poyner, the two big surprises on the opening day roster, were named Pitcher of the Year for the @PawSox and @PortlandSeaDogs, respectively, in 2017.

 

I guess those awards actually mean something!

[Kimmi]

Do we really want to be the biggest spenders in MLB for 3-4 years in a row, some by a wide margin?

 

I remember hating the Yanks for "buying championships."

 

Bingo!

 

Aside from hating the Yankees for 'buying championships', it's just not a very good way to run a business.

 

Farm system. It's all about having a strong farm system.

[Kimmi]

I'd rather have Betts than Harper.

 

Absolutely.

[moonslav59]

Bingo!

 

Aside from hating the Yankees for 'buying championships', it's just not a very good way to run a business.

 

Farm system. It's all about having a strong farm system.

 

Even teams like the Dodgers and Yankess have seen that the current system all but demands a re-set every 3 years, at most, especially if you are over the $40M threshhold.

 

3 years for us is after the 2020 season. (Even after year two years seems more prudent, but that would all but slam the window shut after 2019.)

 

[cp176]

Now, I'm confused. I thought you wanted us to stay near or over by $40M plus, when you said, "Starters will require real money but it's doable."

 

If we want to keep the window open, we will become the Yankees we hated for decades.

 

If we don't keep spending $4)M or more over the limit beyond 2019, we will see a steep decline in competitiveness, IMO.

 

I'd love to see us stay competitive forever, and that's why I prefer a more balanced approach, but we're at where we are now, and our options are limited.

 

I don't think Henry will be the biggest spender for more than 3 years. That's why I'm a "cliff dweller". I wouldn't mind seeing him spend and spend, but I'd feel like a hypocrite, if I didn't point out the paradox us Sox fans might face.

 

This is kind of a tough post for me because I know that some will disagree pointedly and I will probably question to myself of course if they are actually being honest or taking the high road and trying make themselves sound good. When King George started to do his thing, the game changed. My Red Spx friends as well as myself were very upset with what he did. After I while, even though we hated the change we were seeing, it became fairly apparent that our anger had as much to do with jealousy as anything else. You are right about one thing Moon, I will not be a hypocrite when it comes to this one. This is as much new school as anything I have seen in ml baseball. Big market teams with a lot of money to spend who continually make money while spending do in fact buy wins. I am a Red Sox fan and I want them to be competitive every year which I think they will be. It is why I absolutely do not buy into this cliff theory that many here are trying to sell. As long as John Henry owns this team, I doubt that we ever stumble over any cliff. Call me old school for sure because I truly do miss the old days when teams grew their own for the most part and brains in my estimation played a greater role in overall team development. I also loved the fact that in many instances players spent their careers playing for one team and loyalty was earned and respected. Sadly I don't see us going back and I am not angered by any team's moves anymore nor am I jealous of them. I believe that we are at the top of the food chain and I am ok with that. Now understand that this is just my idea of a rant and it is just a silly opinion.

[moonslav59]

This is kind of a tough post for me because I know that some will disagree pointedly and I will probably question to myself of course if they are actually being honest or taking the high road and trying make themselves sound good. When King George started to do his thing, the game changed. My Red Spx friends as well as myself were very upset with what he did. After I while, even though we hated the change we were seeing, it became fairly apparent that our anger had as much to do with jealousy as anything else. You are right about one thing Moon, I will not be a hypocrite when it comes to this one. This is as much new school as anything I have seen in ml baseball. Big market teams with a lot of money to spend who continually make money while spending do in fact buy wins. I am a Red Sox fan and I want them to be competitive every year which I think they will be. It is why I absolutely do not buy into this cliff theory that many here are trying to sell. As long as John Henry owns this team, I doubt that we ever stumble over any cliff. Call me old school for sure because I truly do miss the old days when teams grew their own for the most part and brains in my estimation played a greater role in overall team development. I also loved the fact that in many instances players spent their careers playing for one team and loyalty was earned and respected. Sadly I don't see us going back and I am not angered by any team's moves anymore nor am I jealous of them. I believe that we are at the top of the food chain and I am ok with that. Now understand that this is just my idea of a rant and it is just a silly opinion.

 

You make total sense, and yes part of those feelings from the past were likely based in jealousy, but I do think I'm not alone in thinking there is more joy in winning a ring without outspending the next team by $20M+.

 

I just don't want us to become the team every other fan hates, because we keep buying our way to the top.

 

I don't mind us becoming extra big spenders, and we've been big spenders for a long time, I'm just hoping we can find a way to stay competitive without having to be a top 3 spender for the next decade.

[cp176]

I don't disagree with you here at all.

[Bellhorn04]

You make total sense, and yes part of those feelings from the past were likely based in jealousy, but I do think I'm not alone in thinking there is more joy in winning a ring without outspending the next team by $20M+.

 

I just don't want us to become the team every other fan hates, because we keep buying our way to the top.

 

I don't mind us becoming extra big spenders, and we've been big spenders for a long time, I'm just hoping we can find a way to stay competitive without having to be a top 3 spender for the next decade.

 

Here's the conundrum, though. If you're the #3 team in revenue, but the #7 or 8 team in spending, say, doesn't that mean the owner is profiting at the expense of the fans?

[jacksonianmarch]

With cap penalties as they are, the current model doesn’t allow for ridiculous over expenditures. You guys cannot keep up this level of spending, so your touchy feely side can align its chakras within the next few seasons. In the end, nobody gives a s*** about what you spend, only about who holds the trophy

[moonslav59]

Here's the conundrum, though. If you're the #3 team in revenue, but the #7 or 8 team in spending, say, doesn't that mean the owner is profiting at the expense of the fans?

 

Maybe. There are lots of hidden revenue and maybe some hidden costs as well, and it's pretty clear some teams make much more than others. I guess one could argue that the highest profit teams that are not spending to try to be the best are taking advantage of the fans.

 

Right now, we are about $28M above the second highest spending team, the SFG and $48M above the 3rd place team, the LAD.

 

We are not even a top 3 contender according to the odds. That shows we are spending more to try to be highly competitive, and we are awaiting the results of that very significant attempt by Henry & DD (and Ben) to get us another ring.

 

I don't mind us staying in the top 5-8 spenders in MLB, but I cringe at the thought of us being $39M over the luxury tax limit for 3 straight seasons. To me, that does show commitment from the top, but it might not really show good management, especially if we don't win a ring in the next 3 years.

 

I don't want the rest of MLB fans hating us like they hated the Yanks for decades, but it goes beyond that. I'm not sure Henry relishes the roile of being MLB's biggest spender- winning rings or otherwise.

[moonslav59]

With cap penalties as they are, the current model doesn’t allow for ridiculous over expenditures. You guys cannot keep up this level of spending, so your touchy feely side can align its chakras within the next few seasons. In the end, nobody gives a s*** about what you spend, only about who holds the trophy

 

One reason so many MLB fans hate the Yankess is that they won so damn much.

 

Another major reason was the feeling that your team bought many of the championship- not just by signing more big FAs than everyone else, but by trading for over-priced players, signing draft picks from low in the draft that poorer teams could not sign, and spending large in the international market.

 

I do think people care, if you win under the perception that you bought your way to the top.

 

Yes, other teams are spending large, too, and this is a unique season with multiple teams re-setting their tax, but $48M over the 3rd highest spending team might be a record.

[jacksonianmarch]

Our 2009 team had the highest payroll of any team to win it at the time (maybe sox 2013 passed them? Not sure). Do I care when I remember whipping Pedro and Matsui clobbering the ball in the WS? Not a bit. If you guys win this year, you won’t hear about how “it must be nice to spend so much” from me. Albeit I do like the irony that your team is the highest spending by a TON. We’ll right that next yr

[moonslav59]

Our 2009 team had the highest payroll of any team to win it at the time (maybe sox 2013 passed them? Not sure). Do I care when I remember whipping Pedro and Matsui clobbering the ball in the WS? Not a bit. If you guys win this year, you won’t hear about how “it must be nice to spend so much” from me. Albeit I do like the irony that your team is the highest spending by a TON. We’ll right that next yr

 

Of course, a Yankee fan can never udder those words.

[FredLynn]

We're currently about $3M from the maximu penalty tax limit. Next year, we'll see some signifcant arb raises. To keep Kimbrel and Pom, we'll pretty much have to go more than $40M over the limit or trade a higher priced player- this even with HRam's option not vesting. If it vests, we'll likely see loss of talent or luxury tax penatlies increased starting next season.

 

The following season, we lose Pablo (and maybe HRam, if he vests), but we'll have majore players to re-sign or replace in kind.

 

It's not impossible, but it is going to be very difficult to keep the full core of talent together or to replace in kind through free agency or trades.

 

Here are the numbers...

 

We're $3-4M under the $40M penalty line. I believe the luxry tax goes up $9M, so that leaves us with about $12M going into next year, assuming we don't sign someone this summer that is signed into next year.

 

($1M more for Sale's option year and assuming we lose Holt $2.2M and Leon $2.0M, we're now at about $15M under the max tax limit.)

 

Arb raises:

Betts 2 of 3 ($10.5M > ?)

Bogey 3 of 3 ($7.1M >?)

JBJ 3 of 4 ($6.1M>?)

ERod 2 of 4 ($2.8M)

Thornburg 3 of 3 ($2.1M>?)

Wright 2 of 3 ($1.1M>?)

Smith 2 of 3 ($850K>?)

Workman 2 of 3 ($835K>?)

1st arbs: Barnes, Swihart, Hembree & Elieas.

 

These arb raises will certainly eat up that $15M and then some.

 

We lose: (luxury tax dollars)

$13M Kimbrel

$8.5M Pom

$3.8M Kelly

 

Total: $25.3M

 

Maybe we'll have $10-15M to repalce these guys or be stuck replacing him with players already in the system (or a little of both).

 

HRam's $22M would help a lot, and if we add $22M to $13M, we're at $35M to spend on Kimbrel, Pom & Kelly. It might be close to enough.

 

A vesting HRam contracts almost certainly means we lose Kimbrel and/or Pom or go way over the maz penalty (2nd year rates) and watch our draft pick move down 10 picks.

 

 

I will say it again: unless we stand a very good chance to win a ring (with Ramirez raking all year) this year (NOT just making a playoff appearance), there is no way HanRam should be allowed back on the team next year. That would screw this team for years to come.

[Nick]

Real problem is Sandoval's contract. $19M for nothing. I suppose one can argue that at least he won't have negative war numbers. You lop off $19M, our payroll would just be the 'highest'.

[moonslav59]

I will say it again: unless we stand a very good chance to win a ring (with Ramirez raking all year) this year (NOT just making a playoff appearance), there is no way HanRam should be allowed back on the team next year. That would screw this team for years to come.

 

It's basically HRam or Pom for 2019.

[oldtimer]

...and Nunez, once Pedey returns.

 

The thing about keeping Holt on the back of the bench, is that allows for coverage, in case of a late inning injury, or a PH by Nunez, Moreland or Swihart that might allow Holt to go in on defense at 8 positions. He's also a very good heads-up base runner. To me, that's the main value Holt brings to the team- not his offense and not his defense.

 

My guess is Pedey will not return until sometime in June. By then, things may have changed due to injury or performance. To me, Holt will be the first to go down, but it may just be too early to call that shot.

[Nick]

It's basically HRam or Pom for 2019.

 

Yep, someone's contract needs to come off just to pay the arbitration raises.

 

We can also look to move someone like JBJ (hey I don't want to), knowing we have JD Martinez along with Nunez and Swihart.

[moonslav59]

We're starting the season with 7 guys on the DL- all had a lock or significant chance at making the 25 man roster.

 

There will be some tough decisions to make as these players return, even if 1 or 2 more go on the DL as some return.

 

As of right now, here's how I see the moves (assuming no new injuries or phantom DLs):

 

Pomeranz> Velazquez to AAA

 

Wright> Johnson to pen & Walden to AAA

 

Thornburg> Poyner to AAA

 

ERod> Wright to the pen or traded or Hembree or Johnson traded

 

Maddox> goes to AAA

 

Hernandez> goes to AAA

 

Pedey> Holt goes to AAA

 

[mvp 78]

Yep, someone's contract needs to come off just to pay the arbitration raises.

 

We can also look to move someone like JBJ (hey I don't want to), knowing we have JD Martinez along with Nunez and Swihart.

 

I don't think they'll have to move JBJ, because I don't think he's going to demand a high market value in FA.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, other teams are spending large, too, and this is a unique season with multiple teams re-setting their tax, but $48M over the 3rd highest spending team might be a record.

 

I seriously doubt it's a record. Check out the Dodgers 2012-2017.

[Maxbialystock]

By 2020, we'll be a long way away from our last high draft pick. Yes, dropping 10 picks from 27 to 37 is not a big deal, but how long will Henry keep paying high luxury tax costs, including penatly taxes for going over level 1 and maybe 2?

 

The year 3 tax is 40% (not 17.5% like year one. Then there's a $12% surtax on money spent between $20-40M and 45% for money spent over 40M (year 2 or more).

 

That's a huge amount in tax costs. I'm not so sure Henry wants to be viewed as the next King George.

 

 

 

 

King George used that dadgum stamp tax to pay for the semi-worthless British Army in the American colonies. Cheap bastard.

[OH FOY]

It will be interesting to see how much patience Cora will have for JBJ. Especially if he gets off to a slow start.

[moonslav59]

I don't think they'll have to move JBJ, because I don't think he's going to demand a high market value in FA.

 

He'll likely get more than his last arb gives him.