Sox re-sign Mitch Moreland

[moonslav59]

Everybody cherry picks the stats and data that best support their position...everybody. Its not only true here but its true everywhere else too.

 

Of course everyone digs for numbers to support their position, but to me some vary their criteria much more than others.

 

Guys like harmony catch a lot of grief, but he sticks to one criteria (WAR/projected WAR) for everybody. Yes, he may cherry pick the sample size, but he's much more consistent than others.

 

I think people that know me, knows I rarely use small sample sizes, and when I do I actually state "small sample size alert".

 

I have been pretty consistent with this criteria:

 

I use OPS for offense and UZR/150 for defense more than I use WAR.

I use 3 year sample sizes much more than 1 or 2 year sample sizes, although I do go to 4 years, if the player in question had a low PA season within the last 3 years.

I try to use a significant sample size of PAs or IP to create a group of players that makes sense-- like the top 30 everyday player at a given position or the top 150 starting pitchers (5 starters x 30 teams).

Occasionally, I will use a 2 year sample size, if I feel the 3rd year should not be counted due to an injury or a rookie season of futility. I guess, when I do this, one could argue "cherry-picking", but I do try to stay consistent with my criteria of judgement.

For pitchers, I use ERA- not ERA, WHIP, especially for RP'ers and OPS against. I do not count K% as much as others, and so I discount xFIP and related metrics to some extent.

I avoid Fldg%, BA, RBIs and W-Ls.

i always have.

 

 

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Bradley is 15th in baseball in UZR/150 and you’re complaining? Maybe you haven’t seen the other guys? Bradley is great defensively. He seems to compensate for what the other elite defensive CFers have that he doesn’t (elite speed) with elite smarts. That being said, you’re splitting hairs if you are trying to say he’s better than Buxton or Kiermaier

[cp176]

This is why I have so little faith in the advanced metrics. We now have Beni in LF whom most of us would agree is better than his numbers indicate because "LF in Fenway skews a player's metrics", and JBJ in CF who is allegedly 14th in baseball in UZR/150. These numbers can regurgitate some crazy s***, man. It makes me wonder how many other "advanced metrics" there are exceptions to. Or is it only confined to outfielders who play half their games in Fenway park???

 

Is Benintendi as bad as the metrics depict him to be? Watching him play, it is hard for me to buy the fact that he is not an average if not better ss. Granted there are others who really are substantially better but is he really as bad as some scream on here that he is? I don't think so. I do still think that any metric you can find that can help you with making any kind of decision can and should be used but blanket statements made on what certain stats seem to indicate is ridiculous. Many of us, like you and I, realize the importance of using what is available to help in the decision process but it won't change anyone's perspective of us or what we believe if we do not buy into the concept that advanced metrics is really the only way to go ultimately. We are old fashioned and grossly behind the times. Lastly, JBJ in centerfield gives us an edge over almost every team in mlb. He ain't bad!

[Bellhorn04]

With JBJ, I'll go with what WAR says. In 2016 he was about a 5 WAR, so he was at All-Star level. In 2017 he was about a 2.5 WAR, so he was just a hair above average. He's a great defender but his bat was pretty horrible in 2017.

[cp176]

With JBJ, I'll go with what WAR says. In 2016 he was about a 5 WAR, so he was at All-Star level. In 2017 he was about a 2.5 WAR, so he was just a hair above average. He's a great defender but his bat was pretty horrible in 2017.

 

With JBJ, I really don't even think about his bat. Got some power - very streaky - take what you get. When I read the many ways that people are trying to compare him to everybody else who plays centerfield, I chuckle to myself. You kind of have to accept him for what he is and I think that you are very hard pressed to find a better center fielder in the game today but that is just me and I really don't get too hung up in all of the statistical minutia that is out there. Much too much information for me. I'll also add that simply because I have been reading what other people have written about Martinez, I would not be surprised at all to find him being at least adequate for us in left field. He is likely not as bad out there as some are trying to convince us he is.

[jacksonianmarch]

You have to think about his bat. CFer isn't SS. It is a position that you need some offense from

[cp176]

You have to think about his bat. CFer isn't SS. It is a position that you need some offense from

 

Of course I think about his bat but when you ask me who is the best centerfielder in the game today, the only thing I think about is how that person plays his position. I do not think about his bat. If I am alone in thinking this fine - ok with that here. It is my opinion.

[Jack Flap]

With JBJ, I'll go with what WAR says. In 2016 he was about a 5 WAR, so he was at All-Star level. In 2017 he was about a 2.5 WAR, so he was just a hair above average. He's a great defender but his bat was pretty horrible in 2017.

 

I guess I don't consider .245/.323/.402 and 17 HR from a GG-quality center fielder "horrible." Below average, sure, and he definitely had "horrible" stretches, but I hardly think of him as a negative in our lineup.

 

I do think we could see some positive regression from several of our young guys, and JBJ having a season closer to 2016 then 2017 wouldn't surprise me, either.

[cp176]

You have to think about his bat. CFer isn't SS. It is a position that you need some offense from

 

I do have to add one more thing here that any person who has coached will identify with. When you look at any athlete no matter the level, you have to take in all of the traits and abilities that they bring to the table. And when it is all said and done, you have to really focus on their positive gifts. Work on the weaknesses but recognize and enphasize the strengths. JBJ to most represents one of the best center fielders in the game.

[S5Dewey]

You have to think about his bat. CFer isn't SS. It is a position that you need some offense from

 

And exactly why is that? Why would one think a team needs more offense from some positions than others?

[cp176]

And exactly why is that? Why would one think a team needs more offense from some positions than others?

 

You know what I see here is that for all of this blow and bluster how the game is changing and it is different now than it used to be and that our opinions might be a little behind the times, there are many hypocrites among us. Looking at certain positions on a baseball diamond as being the positions that you must get your power from is age old. Time to wake up and move into this wonderful internet information accessible age before us. lol many times over!!!

[S5Dewey]

And BTW, I've fallen into that same 'trap' too. I believe in "solid up the middle", that I'm willing to give up a little offense to have players at C, SS, 2B, & CF who are outstanding defensively. I expect the average of those players to be about middle of the pack of all teams. Offense comes from the corner positions where I'm willing to give up a little defense to get that offense.

 

One problem I see with this team is that they only have two outstanding "up the middle" defensive players (assuming Pedey doesn't come back at full strength) and they don't have the offense at the corners. We have a SS who is about average (maybe a little less) defensively whose only redeeming feature is that he's better than average offensively for his position. We also have a bunch of second basemen who are question marks but realistically can't be expected to be any better than average defensively and less than average on offense, again for their positions.

 

This team has an outfield and catcher of WSC caliber but it's hard to make a case that our infield is any better than average. That's why I don't understand this rush to trade away 1/3 of the outfield to try to bolster the offense. This team NEEDS a power hitting 1B.

Edited December 20, 2017 by S5Dewey

[cp176]

And BTW, I've fallen into that same 'trap' too. I believe in "solid up the middle", that I'm willing to give up a little offense to have players at C, SS, 2B, & CF who are outstanding defensively. I expect the average of those players to be about middle of the pack of all teams. Offense comes from the corner positions where I'm willing to give up a little defense to get that offense.

 

One problem I see with this team is that they only have two outstanding "up the middle" defensive players (assuming Pedey doesn't come back at full strength) and they don't have the offense at the corners. We have a SS who is about average (maybe a little less) defensively whose only redeeming feature is that he's better than average offensively for his position. We also have a bunch of second basemen who are question marks but realistically can't be expected to be any better than average defensively and less than average on offense, again for their positions.

 

This team has an outfield and catcher of WSC caliber but it's hard to make a case that our infield is any better than average. That's why I don't understand this rush to trade away 1/3 of the outfield to try to bolster the offense. This team NEEDS a power hitting 1B.

 

I really don't disagree with your take at all. Just a little disgruntled by a euphoric Yankee fan trying to give me a baseball education. Maybe the only different take I might have is that I just think that we need to add a power bat in general. I felt this way last year, I feel this way now, and if we don't add one, I will continue to feel the same way I guess.

[jacksonianmarch]

You know what I see here is that for all of this blow and bluster how the game is changing and it is different now than it used to be and that our opinions might be a little behind the times, there are many hypocrites among us. Looking at certain positions on a baseball diamond as being the positions that you must get your power from is age old. Time to wake up and move into this wonderful internet information accessible age before us. lol many times over!!!

 

That's not what I am saying. What I am saying is that the pool of major league CFers includes players with solid offensive numbers. Jacoby Ellsbury significantly outperformed Bradley offensively last year, which should tell you something. He doesn't really jump beyond a lot of other guys out there either. Either teams have a top prospect they are grooming (Buxton, Margot) or they have a speedster (Hamilton) or guys capable of hitting to a much higher degree. If everyone was hitting like s***, then Bradley would be a boon, but you are compared to your position of CF and Bradley was not up to snuff offensively. If you look at team OPS from CF (Boston's is 15th but skewed due to Benintendi's solid numbers there) and use Bradley's .729OPS, he'd be 21st, right above Cleveland and Minnesota, two places that have blue chippers manning their CF. While Bradley is a plus defensive player, he was a minus offensive player.

[S5Dewey]

I don't think anyone claims WAR or UZR/150 are flawless. The same can be said about using just traditional numbers to compare the best players or attempt to rank them.

 

WAR and UZR/150 are just two of many tools to aid fans who do not have the time to watch and evaluate every play of every MLB game.

 

There's a fine line (ok, not all that fine) between "flawless" and a 25% - 30% difference in totals though. Let's take the 2017 WAR for just two Red Sox players, XBO & JBJ for example:

 

fWAR bWAR

Bogaerts 3.2 2.2

JBJ 2.3 2.8

 

This is only not "flawless", these two sources have a 25% - 30% difference in the player's WAR and they can't even establish which player is better! How am I supposed to have any confidence in anything either of these two sources calculate for WAR for any player??

 

I know that we as fans want something we can hang our hats on to compare players but WAR isn't it. To paraphrase a line from the movie ARGO, "WAR is the best bad idea we've got." And yet we use it like it has value.

[harmony]

You know what I see here is that for all of this blow and bluster how the game is changing and it is different now than it used to be and that our opinions might be a little behind the times, there are many hypocrites among us. Looking at certain positions on a baseball diamond as being the positions that you must get your power from is age old. Time to wake up and move into this wonderful internet information accessible age before us. lol many times over!!!

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-front-offices-have-to-say-about-the-changing-game/

[Spudboy]

There's a fine line (ok, not all that fine) between "flawless" and a 25% - 30% difference in totals though. Let's take the 2017 WAR for just two Red Sox players, XBO & JBJ for example:

 

fWAR bWAR

Bogaerts 3.2 2.2

JBJ 2.3 2.8

 

This is only not "flawless", these two sources have a 25% - 30% difference in the player's WAR and they can't even establish which player is better! How am I supposed to have any confidence in anything either of these two sources calculate for WAR for any player??

 

I know that we as fans want something we can hang our hats on to compare players but WAR isn't it. To paraphrase a line from the movie ARGO, "WAR is the best bad idea we've got." And yet we use it like it has value.

 

Lol.

 

Them's fightin' words with this crowd!

[moonslav59]

There's a fine line (ok, not all that fine) between "flawless" and a 25% - 30% difference in totals though. Let's take the 2017 WAR for just two Red Sox players, XBO & JBJ for example:

 

fWAR bWAR

Bogaerts 3.2 2.2

JBJ 2.3 2.8

 

This is only not "flawless", these two sources have a 25% - 30% difference in the player's WAR and they can't even establish which player is better! How am I supposed to have any confidence in anything either of these two sources calculate for WAR for any player??

 

I know that we as fans want something we can hang our hats on to compare players but WAR isn't it. To paraphrase a line from the movie ARGO, "WAR is the best bad idea we've got." And yet we use it like it has value.

 

Since JBJ and Bogey play two different positions, I'm not overly concerned about wide dependencies. Yes, these two examples highlight the flaws. There certainly are some, but to me, the attempt is noble, and the results are strikingly accurate for ranking players by position.

 

To me, the WAR rankings are a better reflection of who is actually better than others at a specific position than any traditional stat or group of stats can convey. Plus, it's time-consuming and difficult to compile 5 different traditional lists (say maybe OBP, SLG, Fldg%, SBs and HRs, then give some lists more weight than others and try to sort out who is the best "OVERALL" player at any given position.

 

With certain flaws and seemingly obvious mistakes, WAR does a damn good job at working everything out, IMO.

[moonslav59]

And yet we use it like it has value.

 

If someone wants to just use one number to shorten an argument or post, then WAR is probably the best available-- flaws and all.

[moonslav59]

And BTW, I've fallen into that same 'trap' too. I believe in "solid up the middle", that I'm willing to give up a little offense to have players at C, SS, 2B, & CF who are outstanding defensively. I expect the average of those players to be about middle of the pack of all teams. Offense comes from the corner positions where I'm willing to give up a little defense to get that offense.

 

One problem I see with this team is that they only have two outstanding "up the middle" defensive players (assuming Pedey doesn't come back at full strength) and they don't have the offense at the corners. We have a SS who is about average (maybe a little less) defensively whose only redeeming feature is that he's better than average offensively for his position. We also have a bunch of second basemen who are question marks but realistically can't be expected to be any better than average defensively and less than average on offense, again for their positions.

 

This team has an outfield and catcher of WSC caliber but it's hard to make a case that our infield is any better than average. That's why I don't understand this rush to trade away 1/3 of the outfield to try to bolster the offense. This team NEEDS a power hitting 1B.

 

I agree 100%. That's why signing Moreland looks very puzzling, to me.

[OH FOY]

Here's the thing about a Defensive Outfielder who's Offense is not his strong suit. There is always more, what separates the 2 is Offense. You'll find Defensive Outfielders. Find one that does both, that's the secret.

You can compliment a Defensive Centerfielder, if rest of team, is above average on the Offensive side of ball. Orioles did it, but the thing with Blair was Power that surrounded him, in Line-up.

Keep the game close with Pitching and Defense, but rely on Power, for difference in game.

Defense, Pitching and 3 run HR. With this formula, take out 1 in game and it will be hard to win.

Edited December 20, 2017 by OH FOY!

[mvp 78]

I agree 100%. That's why signing Moreland looks very puzzling, to me.

 

He's a discount Hosmer who played very well when not dealing with a broken toe.

[moonslav59]

You have to think about his bat. CFer isn't SS. It is a position that you need some offense from

 

The league CF OPS was .760 this year after being at .732 and .734 in the previous two seasons.

 

While JBJ fell short this year (.732), he was about a hundred points better in 2015 (.832) and 2016 (.835).

 

Again, at worst he is an average hitting CF'er, but he's a top defender and a plus base runner.

[moonslav59]

He's a discount Hosmer who played very well when not dealing with a broken toe.

 

Please, no Hosmer comps. I hated Hoze. Yes, I'd take 2 Morelands over 1 Hoze, but that was not our only choices.

 

I'd much prefer this:

 

1B- HRam (If he gets hurt, we save the vest and signa 1Bman mid season.

 

DH- JD (saving $13M by not signing Moreland)

 

OF- as is

[mvp 78]

Please, no Hosmer comps. I hated Hoze. Yes, I'd take 2 Morelands over 1 Hoze, but that was not our only choices.

 

I'd much prefer this:

 

1B- HRam (If he gets hurt, we save the vest and signa 1Bman mid season.

 

DH- JD (saving $13M by not signing Moreland)

 

OF- as is

 

I'd rather:

 

Moreland - 1b

 

JD - DH

 

HRam unconditionally released

[mvp 78]

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/10/18/would-red-sox-better-off-without-hanley-ramirez/Y4qb9BbJXGdfUMzN9AHeoM/story.html

 

In the eyes of multiple members of the industry, he’s virtually untradeable given (a) the performance questions; ( a surplus of inexpensive free agent first basemen/DHs; © his $22 million salary; and (d) a $22 million vesting option for 2019 that would become guaranteed with 497 plate appearances.

 

In an offseason when the Sox may need to pursue a top-of-the-market power hitter such as Martinez, it ordinarily would seem ridiculous to wonder whether it makes sense to release Ramirez and thus create a need for a second bat — particularly given that the Sox would thus pay Ramirez $22 million to play elsewhere, while also having to spend on a free agent. (Example: Without Ramirez, the Sox might be left to pursue Martinez while trying to bring back a player like Mitch Moreland on something close to the $5.5 million he received last year.)

 

Yet releasing Ramirez might permit the Sox to add a player who would be a more reliable roster fit in 2018 while ensuring that they wouldn’t be on the hook for his $22 million vesting option in 2019.

 

Bumped for the moon man.

[S5Dewey]

Here's the thing about a Defensive Outfielder who's Offense is not his strong suit. There is always more, what separates the 2 is Offense. You'll find Defensive Outfielders. Find one that does both, that's the secret.

You can compliment a Defensive Centerfielder, if rest of team, is above average on the Offensive side of ball. Orioles did it, but the thing with Blair was Power that surrounded him, in Line-up.

Keep the game close with Pitching and Defense, but rely on Power, for difference in game.

Defense, Pitching and 3 run HR. With this formula, take out 1 in game and it will be hard to win.

 

I agree that finding one who does both is the secret. However, as I said before, I'll give up some offense in an up the middle position to gain a big defensive advantage. IMHO one of the biggest shortcomings of this team is in our SS. This guy was supposed to be the be-all, end-all of shortstops. One who'd play stellar defense and also make big offensive contributions. So far he's done neither. If he were hitting as expected we wouldn't be worrying about trading an all-star caliber CF because what that CF lacks in offense would be made up by the SS.

[S5Dewey]

Please, no Hosmer comps. I hated Hoze. Yes, I'd take 2 Morelands over 1 Hoze, but that was not our only choices.

 

I'd much prefer this:

 

1B- HRam (If he gets hurt, we save the vest and signa 1Bman mid season.

 

DH- JD (saving $13M by not signing Moreland)

 

OF- as is

 

one word. YES!

[cp176]

I agree that finding one who does both is the secret. However, as I said before, I'll give up some offense in an up the middle position to gain a big defensive advantage. IMHO one of the biggest shortcomings of this team is in our SS. This guy was supposed to be the be-all, end-all of shortstops. One who'd play stellar defense and also make big offensive contributions. So far he's done neither. If he were hitting as expected we wouldn't be worrying about trading an all-star caliber CF because what that CF lacks in offense would be made up by the SS.

 

We will always be looking for the next Willie Mays I think.

[S5Dewey]

Please, no Hosmer comps. I hated Hoze. Yes, I'd take 2 Morelands over 1 Hoze, but that was not our only choices.

 

I'd much prefer this:

 

1B- HRam (If he gets hurt, we save the vest and signa 1Bman mid season.

 

DH- JD (saving $13M by not signing Moreland)

 

OF- as is

 

And to expand on my "YES" comment, I still fail to see the harm in going with Moon's idea.

 

Either Hanley will produce @ 1B or he won't. If he does and he vests, so much the better. We've got a producing 1Bman. OTOH, if he doesn't produce we sign someone else (this someone else who's cheaper and can't be much worse than Hanley- remember Hanley wasn't producing) and give Hanley so few PA's that he doesn't vest.

 

Is there a downside to this???