The Depth Argument

[jacksonianmarch]

Also, wouldn’t it just be karma for DD if the sox do eventually move Xander plus for Machado and Xander outplays him for one season?

[Bellhorn04]

I really can't believe DD would trade Bogaerts and Groome for Machado. It's not a question of whether that's a fair return for the O's or not. It would just be an awful move for us IMO.

[cp176]

Also, wouldn’t it just be karma for DD if the sox do eventually move Xander plus for Machado and Xander outplays him for one season?

 

I would call that karma for a Yankee fan. Very likely would not happen though.

[Kimmi]

Also, wouldn’t it just be karma for DD if the sox do eventually move Xander plus for Machado and Xander outplays him for one season?

 

I don't think it's unrealistic that Bogaerts outplays Machado next season. Machado is a great player, but I wouldn't give up on Bogaerts. I am in no rush to trade him, plus others, to get Machado for one year, just like I was in no rush to trade Beni and others for Stanton and his huge contract.

 

I'm fine with the guys we have.

 

Especially since Fangraphs currently has us winning the same number of games as the Yankees.

[Elktonnick]

I don't think it's unrealistic that Bogaerts outplays Machado next season. Machado is a great player, but I wouldn't give up on Bogaerts. I am in no rush to trade him, plus others, to get Machado for one year, just like I was in no rush to trade Beni and others for Stanton and his huge contract.

 

I'm fine with the guys we have.

 

Especially since Fangraphs currently has us winning the same number of games as the Yankees.

 

I certainly agree that this club even without adding JD Martinez will be favored to make the post season. If they do add Martinez, however, they will need to trade someone. Either Bradley or Hanley Ramirez are the two most likely possibilities.

 

Ramirez poses a particularly sticky problem for Alez Cora if they do sign Martinez. Ramirez needs 499 plate appearances next year for his option to become effective. Unless the Sox make room for Martinez by trading someone it is virtually impossible for Hanley to get the needed number of plate appearances. The prospect of Cora having to deal with a discontented Ramirez wouldn't be very appealing. If Martinez is signed look for someone to get dealt. My choice would be Hanley but that won't be easy.

[a700hitter]

I don't think it's unrealistic that Bogaerts outplays Machado next season. Machado is a great player, but I wouldn't give up on Bogaerts. I am in no rush to trade him, plus others, to get Machado for one year, just like I was in no rush to trade Beni and others for Stanton and his huge contract.

 

I'm fine with the guys we have.

 

Especially since Fangraphs currently has us winning the same number of games as the Yankees.

it is possible that Bogaerts has a better 2018 than Machado, but it is extremely unlikely. He is not closed to being as skilled a hitter as Machado. The bat speed is just not there.

 

As for your position that our offense is fine with the current crew, I think you are wrong. If there are no changes to this lineup, it will continue to suffer from the same fits of inconsistency that plagued it last year.

[notin]

While the current Sox might be favored to make the post-season, is it realistic? At least right now?

 

Last week on MLB Radio, Steve Phillips did a bit called "5 in 5 out". The premise was, based on recent history, 5 teams from the last post-season would not make the next one. (He did acknowledge that with a lot of free agents available, this was subject to change. But he also has air time to fill.)

 

Anyway his 5 out were, in order of likelihood, Minnesota, Colorado, Arizona, Boston and Los Angeles.

 

The NL West teams all sort of make each other less likely and I don't think he expected to hit on all three. But he had Boston out mostly based on division. The Yankees were his seventh most likely team to miss, behind the Cubs at 6.

[moonslav59]

it is possible that Bogaerts has a better 2018 than Machado, but it is extremely unlikely. He is not closed to being as skilled a hitter as Machado. The bat speed is just not there.

 

As for your position that our offense is fine with the current crew, I think you are wrong. If there are no changes to this lineup, it will continue to suffer from the same fits of inconsistency that plagued it last year.

 

I agree. It would be very surprising to see Bogey have a better year, even just offensively. When you factor in defense (like using WAR), Machado should blow Bogey away.

[oldtimer]

I agree. It would be very surprising to see Bogey have a better year, even just offensively. When you factor in defense (like using WAR), Machado should blow Bogey away.

 

The question of value seems a little different to me. One year of Machado with his difference in offense and defense against Bogey longer term at less money plus another high level prospect. In that case I would lean toward Kimmi's assessment. A long term Machado against a long term Bogey with a top prospect is more of a balance.

[S5Dewey]

While the current Sox might be favored to make the post-season, is it realistic? At least right now?

 

Last week on MLB Radio, Steve Phillips did a bit called "5 in 5 out". The premise was, based on recent history, 5 teams from the last post-season would not make the next one. (He did acknowledge that with a lot of free agents available, this was subject to change. But he also has air time to fill.)

 

Anyway his 5 out were, in order of likelihood, Minnesota, Colorado, Arizona, Boston and Los Angeles.

 

The NL West teams all sort of make each other less likely and I don't think he expected to hit on all three. But he had Boston out mostly based on division. The Yankees were his seventh most likely team to miss, behind the Cubs at 6.

 

This has been lurking in the back of my mind for some time, too.

 

With WC sports usually decided by a game or two and the Sox playing an improved Yankees team 19 times it's going to be that much harder to get a WC spot.

[Kimmi]

I certainly agree that this club even without adding JD Martinez will be favored to make the post season. If they do add Martinez, however, they will need to trade someone. Either Bradley or Hanley Ramirez are the two most likely possibilities.

 

Ramirez poses a particularly sticky problem for Alez Cora if they do sign Martinez. Ramirez needs 499 plate appearances next year for his option to become effective. Unless the Sox make room for Martinez by trading someone it is virtually impossible for Hanley to get the needed number of plate appearances. The prospect of Cora having to deal with a discontented Ramirez wouldn't be very appealing. If Martinez is signed look for someone to get dealt. My choice would be Hanley but that won't be easy.

 

If the Sox sign JD, I am 50-50 on whether they would then trade Jackie or Hanley. If they trade either, my choice would be Hanley as well, but I don't think it's necessary that either gets traded. I think there will be enough at bats to keep everyone happy.

 

There likely wouldn't be enough at bats to allow Hanley's option to kick in, but that should be a motivating factor for Hanley. If he's hitting, he'll get the at bats. Personally, I don't see Hanley as a malcontent.

[Kimmi]

it is possible that Bogaerts has a better 2018 than Machado, but it is extremely unlikely. He is not closed to being as skilled a hitter as Machado. The bat speed is just not there.

 

As for your position that our offense is fine with the current crew, I think you are wrong. If there are no changes to this lineup, it will continue to suffer from the same fits of inconsistency that plagued it last year.

 

Speaking in terms of one year, Bogaerts could outperform Machado. I agree that it's not likely, but it's also not unrealistic. Certainly in terms of the added cost it would take to get Machado, I don't think he's worth it over Bogaerts.

 

As far as our overall offense is concerned, I do believe that we'll see some positive regression from several players. We have a very good, solid young core who underperformed last year. People need to stop selling them short.

[Kimmi]

While the current Sox might be favored to make the post-season, is it realistic? At least right now?

 

Last week on MLB Radio, Steve Phillips did a bit called "5 in 5 out". The premise was, based on recent history, 5 teams from the last post-season would not make the next one. (He did acknowledge that with a lot of free agents available, this was subject to change. But he also has air time to fill.)

 

Anyway his 5 out were, in order of likelihood, Minnesota, Colorado, Arizona, Boston and Los Angeles.

 

The NL West teams all sort of make each other less likely and I don't think he expected to hit on all three. But he had Boston out mostly based on division. The Yankees were his seventh most likely team to miss, behind the Cubs at 6.

 

Of course it's realistic. Look at the state of the remainder of the AL besides the teams that are also projected to make the playoffs. In particular, look at the state of the AL East besides the Yankees. It's pretty sad.

[Kimmi]

The question of value seems a little different to me. One year of Machado with his difference in offense and defense against Bogey longer term at less money plus another high level prospect. In that case I would lean toward Kimmi's assessment. A long term Machado against a long term Bogey with a top prospect is more of a balance.

 

If spending and prospects were unlimited, you go with Machado. Since they aren't, you go with the better value. I know people disagree with that philosophy because we are a big market team, but it doesn't make sense to me to spend a ridiculous amount on Machado when we already have Bogaerts.

 

Of course, I have a higher opinion of Bogaerts than most people here do.

[a700hitter]

Speaking in terms of one year, Bogaerts could outperform Machado. I agree that it's not likely, but it's also not unrealistic. Certainly in terms of the added cost it would take to get Machado, I don't think he's worth it over Bogaerts.

 

As far as our overall offense is concerned, I do believe that we'll see some positive regression from several players. We have a very good, solid young core who underperformed last year. People need to stop selling them short.

A bad year from Machado blows away a good year from Bogaerts. It is not impossible that Bogaerts would have a better season than Machado, but it is extremely unlikely and unrealistic. And I am not convinced that there is very much potential for increased performance with our current crew. We have hole at 2B for the first 2 months of the season. That is a huge problem. Vasquez is likely to take a step back. I would expect a slight step back from Moreland, slight improvements from Bogaerts and Betts. I expect about the same performance from Bradley. The wild cards are Devers and Benintendi. Are these guys ready to break out, or has the league adjusted to them? I am not seeing enough room for improvement as a squad. The Yankees added a wrecking ball and they were already better than our offense.

[notin]

Of course it's realistic. Look at the state of the remainder of the AL besides the teams that are also projected to make the playoffs. In particular, look at the state of the AL East besides the Yankees. It's pretty sad.

 

True, but the NL East and AL Central have less depth. And Houston should still be an easy favorite in the AL West.

[Jack Flap]

If spending and prospects were unlimited, you go with Machado. Since they aren't, you go with the better value. I know people disagree with that philosophy because we are a big market team, but it doesn't make sense to me to spend a ridiculous amount on Machado when we already have Bogaerts.

 

Of course, I have a higher opinion of Bogaerts than most people here do.

 

I agree with you on Bogaerts. For all of his inconsistency, he's had multiple half-seasons where he's looked like a future batting champ, a full season where he hit .320, and another with 20+ home runs, all before age 25. If he ever puts it all together, there's a terrific all-around player there, and IMO he's still too young to write off the possibility of that happening.

 

Even in his somewhat disappointing 2017 season (the one where he played hurt for the whole second half), his value relative to Machado was essentially a toss-up depending on which version of WAR you're using...it's certainly likely that Machado will have a better 2018 season than Bogaerts, but I think it's less of a certainty than many probably believe, and that's before factoring in Xander's additional year of control plus whatever else you'd have to add to the trade.

 

Keeping the left side of our infield as-is and adding a bat at DH just makes the most sense to me...we can always pursue Machado and trade Bogaerts (or move Devers to first) next winter if we wish.

[Kimmi]

A bad year from Machado blows away a good year from Bogaerts. It is not impossible that Bogaerts would have a better season than Machado, but it is extremely unlikely and unrealistic. And I am not convinced that there is very much potential for increased performance with our current crew. We have hole at 2B for the first 2 months of the season. That is a huge problem. Vasquez is likely to take a step back. I would expect a slight step back from Moreland, slight improvements from Bogaerts and Betts. I expect about the same performance from Bradley. The wild cards are Devers and Benintendi. Are these guys ready to break out, or has the league adjusted to them? I am not seeing enough room for improvement as a squad. The Yankees added a wrecking ball and they were already better than our offense.

 

Not true. Bogaerts outperformed Machado last season in WAR (3.2 to 2.8) and Bogaerts was injured and played in 8 fewer games. Machado is the better overall player, but outperforming Bogaerts next season is not a given.

 

We'll have to disagree on the improvement of our current players. IMO, it's a moot point anyway because I am sure that the Sox will be adding that bat.

[Kimmi]

I agree with you on Bogaerts. For all of his inconsistency, he's had multiple half-seasons where he's looked like a future batting champ, a full season where he hit .320, and another with 20+ home runs, all before age 25. If he ever puts it all together, there's a terrific all-around player there, and IMO he's still too young to write off the possibility of that happening.

 

Even in his somewhat disappointing 2017 season (the one where he played hurt for the whole second half), his value relative to Machado was essentially a toss-up depending on which version of WAR you're using...it's certainly likely that Machado will have a better 2018 season than Bogaerts, but I think it's less of a certainty than many probably believe, and that's before factoring in Xander's additional year of control plus whatever else you'd have to add to the trade.

 

Keeping the left side of our infield as-is and adding a bat at DH just makes the most sense to me...we can always pursue Machado and trade Bogaerts (or move Devers to first) next winter if we wish.

 

Very well said Jack.

 

Before Xander hurt his hand last season, he was hitting very well. I would hate to give up on him and have him become the player that many hoped he would become. It's too soon to give up on him.

[a700hitter]

Not true. Bogaerts outperformed Machado last season in WAR (3.2 to 2.8) and Bogaerts was injured and played in 8 fewer games. Machado is the better overall player, but outperforming Bogaerts next season is not a given.

 

We'll have to disagree on the improvement of our current players. IMO, it's a moot point anyway because I am sure that the Sox will be adding that bat.

Nothing is a given, but it is not realistic. Bogaerts has never outperformed Machado offensively. Last season, the batting WAR was 3.5 for Machado and 2.2 for Bogey. Edited January 5, 2018 by a700hitter

[Larry Cook]

I don’t think I’d jump if I were Baltimore at anything Groome related. I know he’s got great stuff, but his proximity is so far away and with the injury history and the off the field stuff, he’s lost the ability to be a headliner. That may change this year.

 

I’ve seen a ton of minor leaguers throw over the years and this kid has “wow” stuff. Especially the curveball which is kershaw like.

Yes his control needs work. Yes he is immature. Yes his father is a distraction.

 

But the bottom line is this kid has special talent but also a lot to overcome. If he does, we have an ace. If not, then we have another Paxton Crawford.

[jacksonianmarch]

I get that his stuff is special. But he’s probably heading back to A ball this year, meaning that he’s probably 2-3 years away from the majors. He’s had injury and command issues. His dad is more than a distraction, the 20 yr old was raised by a gun and drug runner. Whether anyone wants to admit it or now, that’s a big red flag. The kid dropped in the draft due to maturity issues as well. I’m not saying he’s not a prospect. I am saying he’s lost enough luster to not be a headliner for a major deal should you trade him. He’s enough of a “toxic asset” that the sox are going to have to keep him and see what he does, which may not be a bad thing for you guys

[Kimmi]

Nothing is a given, but it is not realistic. Bogaerts has never outperformed Machado offensively. Last season, the batting WAR was 3.5 for Machado and 2.2 for Bogey.

 

First off, the WAR you are quoting is not batting WAR, it's overall WAR. According to bWAR, Machado did outperform Xander overall last season. According to fWAR, Xander outperformed Machado. In terms of offense alone, both fWAR and bWAR have Xander outperforming Machado, although Machado did better in wRC+.

 

At any rate, my post was in response to your statement that "A bad year from Machado blows away a good year from Bogaerts." That is simply not true.

[a700hitter]

First off, the WAR you are quoting is not batting WAR, it's overall WAR. According to bWAR, Machado did outperform Xander overall last season. According to fWAR, Xander outperformed Machado. In terms of offense alone, both fWAR and bWAR have Xander outperforming Machado, although Machado did better in wRC+.

 

At any rate, my post was in response to your statement that "A bad year from Machado blows away a good year from Bogaerts." That is simply not true.

They don’t have close to the same talent level. My post was in response to your post that it would not be unrealistic to believe that Bogey will have a better year than Machado. The chances of that happening are so remote as to render it unrealistic.

[Kimmi]

They don’t have close to the same talent level. My post was in response to your post that it would not be unrealistic to believe that Bogey will have a better year than Machado. The chances of that happening are so remote as to render it unrealistic.

 

No, the chances are not that remote. Bogey's best years are better than some of Machado's.

 

It's not likely, but it's also far from unrealistic.

[Bellhorn04]

Probably the fairest way to look at the Bogey-Machado thing is the 2018 projected fWAR:

 

Bogey 3.6

Machado 6.3

 

So that's a 2.7 differential for Machado.

[a700hitter]

No, the chances are not that remote. Bogey's best years are better than some of Machado's.

 

It's not likely, but it's also far from unrealistic.

As I said, it is not impossible, but it is just an unrealistic hope.

[Elktonnick]

As I said, it is not impossible, but it is just an unrealistic hope.

 

The problem with Bogaerts is assuming he bounces back from the wrist injury (and that's a pretty big assumption) he historically fades in the second half of the season. If the Sox are to get past the first round of the playoffs they'll need Bogey to play better later in the year than he has done in the past.

[moonslav59]

Probably the fairest way to look at the Bogey-Machado thing is the 2018 projected fWAR:

 

Bogey 3.6

Machado 6.3

 

So that's a 2.7 differential for Machado.

 

Yes, almost double- which matches up with two years for one.

[moonslav59]

The problem with Bogaerts is assuming he bounces back from the wrist injury (and that's a pretty big assumption) he historically fades in the second half of the season. If the Sox are to get past the first round of the playoffs they'll need Bogey to play better later in the year than he has done in the past.

 

I'm not sure I'd say "historically". His career .771 vs .721 2nd half vs 1st half is greatly influenced by 2016 & 2017 numbers. His 2017 splits (.806 vs .671) were probably directly related to the wrist injury. (Note: he was .803 in September, so there is hope he is over the wrist injury.)

 

Here's his history:

1st half vs 2nd half

2017: .671- .806

2016: .718- .889

 

Before the last two years, there was no "history" of late season fades.

2015: .750- .803 (had better in 2nd half)

2014: .658- .661 (about the same)

2013: n/a- .684 (plus a nice playoff)

 

Minors:

2013: .814- .829

2012: .851 (A)- .937 (A)/.948 (AA)

2011: .847- .832

 

 

Edited January 6, 2018 by moonslav59