The Depth Argument

[jacksonianmarch]

Oh I know. Nobody can kid around out here?

[Bellhorn04]

Oh I know. Nobody can kid around out here?

 

Sorry if I misconstrued, but it's the internet. Maybe put a smiley or something at the end when you're joking?

[Bellhorn04]

At the end of this season David Price either commits to us for 4 more years or he frees up 124 million over the next 4 years.

[cp176]

At the end of this season David Price either commits to us for 4 more years or he frees up 124 million over the next 4 years.

 

You think that he stands any chance at all of getting an offer that pays him anywhere even close to what we are paying him?

[Bellhorn04]

You think that he stands any chance at all of getting an offer that pays him anywhere even close to what we are playing him?

 

All depends on his 2018 season. Look at Zack Greinke, he opted out of a rich deal and got even richer.

[cp176]

All depends on his 2018 season. Look at Zack Greinke, he opted out of a rich deal and got even richer.

 

I think that you should have put that smiley face here. As has been said many many many times before, looks like the market has changed. IMO - 0 chance Price is going to get a better offer from anyone - note just my opinion. If he should opt out, I think that it will be because he has all of the $ he is ever going to need and that he is just sick of playing for Boston.

[Kimmi]

Certainly the hopes and projections of the prospects DD inhertited were better than those we have now.

 

Our best hopes are...

 

Sam Travis seemlessly takes over for HRam at 1B next year, adn we can let Moreland go via trade or after his 2-year deal runs out.

 

Devers becomes a major force, so we will not feel so badly about losing Bogey or JBJ.

 

Beni becomes a major force, so we no longer have to worry about losing Bogey or JBJ. (If both Devers & Beni become great, we may even be able to stay good without Betts.

 

ERod becomes the pitcher we all have hoped he'd become, so maybe we can get by without paying Pom to stay.

 

Johnson or Wright step up to be fine 5th starters that are reliable.

 

Groome fills in when we lose Porcello.

 

Maybe Brannen or Scherff rise to the top. Mata is too far away to hope for any help from him in the next 3 years.

 

Certainly, a few of these hopes can become reality, but we'll probably need more to come true than is reasonable to expect.

 

It could happen, and there is still time to 'fix' things before the end of this window.

[Kimmi]

All depends on his 2018 season. Look at Zack Greinke, he opted out of a rich deal and got even richer.

 

I didn't think it was possible, but then I saw what Greinke got.

 

I thought that Price might opt just because he was not happy playing in Boston. If he has a good year and seems content, I don't think he'll opt out, crazy as it sounds.

[moonslav59]

Did you put this under your pillow and wish upon a star? Cmon man, come back to reality!

 

I said it's not reasonable to expect enough of the "hopes" to come true. What's not "real" about that?

[Larry Cook]

The Rays develop starting pitchers so why can't we. Groome is the obvious possibility and lets see if he can make the jump within the next two years.

 

I know a lot of people wonder why we do not develop starting pitching.

 

Is it because we lock our developmental pitchers into a regiment of fastball, curveball and change up?

 

We do not teach sliders or cutters. Some say we discourage the use of these pitches.

 

Meanwhile teams like the dodgers, braves and rays have a different approach. They let pitchers develop based on their strengths, regardless of what type pitches they throw.

[a700hitter]

All depends on his 2018 season. Look at Zack Greinke, he opted out of a rich deal and got even richer.

It stands to reason that replacing price if he opts out will be more expensive than the remaining $124 Million.

[Spudboy]

It stands to reason that replacing price if he opts out will be more expensive than the remaining $124 Million.

 

Not to question your judgement or to be argumentative but do you really see front line pitching costing more that $31. mil / year next season?

[a700hitter]

Not to question your judgement or to be argumentative but do you really see front line pitching costing more that $31. mil / year next season?

If Price opts out, it will be because he and his agent think that the market is lucrative. If the market is less than $31 million, he will not leave.

[moonslav59]

It stands to reason that replacing price if he opts out will be more expensive than the remaining $124 Million.

 

But, maybe we don't have to replace him "in kind".

 

I agree, he's not opting out unless he can make more.

 

Even if he has a great 2018, the value just might not be there, considering his age.

[a700hitter]

But, maybe we don't have to replace him "in kind".

 

I agree, he's not opting out unless he can make more.

 

Even if he has a great 2018, the value just might not be there, considering his age.

If you want to replace him with a lesser pitcher, we will have a lesser team.

[cp176]

If Price opts out, it will be because he and his agent think that the market is lucrative. If the market is less than $31 million, he will not leave.

 

I guess a lot of strange things happen but I would be very surprised if he got an offer that topped 31 million from anyone. If he does, I hope he takes it. It doesn't look like the market is heading there but you never know what nutbag out there is willing to throw their money around. If he was to be offered more than he is making now, what would be your best guess for Sale moving forward? Do brinks trucks carry that much money?

[notin]

If Price opts out, it will be because he and his agent think that the market is lucrative. If the market is less than $31 million, he will not leave.

 

If Price opts out, it will be because he desperately wants out of Boston. He isn't getting a better deal at his age with question marks surrounding his elbow.

 

None of us had any idea if he desperately wants out of Boston. ....

[a700hitter]

If Price opts out, it will be because he desperately wants out of Boston. He isn't getting a better deal at his age with question marks surrounding his elbow.

 

None of us had any idea if he desperately wants out of Boston. ....

That is nonsense. He wouldn't opt out of North Korea unless he could get $30 million/year.

[Kimmi]

That is nonsense. He wouldn't opt out of North Korea unless he could get $30 million/year.

 

It's not nonsense.

 

If he hated playing in Boston strongly enough, he would opt out.

[jacksonianmarch]

No, he wouldn’t. He’d opt in then throw a fit to where he’d have to be traded. These players aren’t dumb. The market re-set a bit and with Darvish getting low $20 mil per year and Price coming off a mediocre 2016 and an elbow injury in 2017, he’s got no shot at getting more than the 4 yrs $124 mil he’s got coming to him. The idea of him opting out is entirely preposterous. Price has that there in the event that he won 3 CY with Boston and then he could get more, but we clearly know how the first two seasons went

[OH FOY]

Kershaw has an Opt out too. If he hates Boston and Opts out he wont get 30 again. Too old for that much. Doubt teams do another Greinke. Learning their lessons. Maybe Kershaw wont even opt out, after seeing the Market last year. Edited April 1, 2018 by OH FOY!

[Bellhorn04]

Kershaw has an Opt out too. If he hates Boston and Opts out he wont get 30 again. Too old for that much. Doubt teams do another Greinke. Learning their lessons. Maybe Kershaw wont even opt out, after seeing the Market last year.

 

We can't judge everything based on one offseason though. Philosophies can change quickly.

 

And right at the end of this one Alex Cobb signed a deal that was for even more than predicted, when it looked like he was going to have to settle for a small one.

[notin]

No, he wouldn’t. He’d opt in then throw a fit to where he’d have to be traded. These players aren’t dumb. The market re-set a bit and with Darvish getting low $20 mil per year and Price coming off a mediocre 2016 and an elbow injury in 2017, he’s got no shot at getting more than the 4 yrs $124 mil he’s got coming to him. The idea of him opting out is entirely preposterous. Price has that there in the event that he won 3 CY with Boston and then he could get more, but we clearly know how the first two seasons went

 

Sort of the point.

 

Price isn't getting the same money anywhere else. So the only chance of him opting out is if he values leaving Boston more than money. Certainly he can try to get out other ways, like demanding a trade (which actually is very unlikely to work). But the only way he opts out at this point is poor of desperation. I don't expect it to happen. ..

[Bellhorn04]

So I guess Price belongs in the 'who will still be around in 2020' column in any cliff prognostications then.

[notin]

So I guess Price belongs in the 'who will still be around in 2020' column in any cliff prognostications then.

 

I expect Price to be here for 7 years.

 

But part of me does really hope he bails after his year.

[a700hitter]

It's not nonsense.

 

If he hated playing in Boston strongly enough, he would opt out.

Sorry, but that is nonsense. This is a a business, and Boston is not Afghanistan.

[notin]

Sorry, but that is nonsense. This is a a business, and Boston is not Afghanistan.

 

It's not "nonsense". It's just very unlikely.

 

It is a true statement that the ONLY CHANCE he leaves Boston is of he wants to leave the city. The point here is that he certainly won't be doing it to get more money, since we all agree that is not going to happen period.

 

The "whine and trade" scenario is provaly more likely to happen but less likely to work. Since no one will take that contract, and hopefully Dombrowski isn't stupid enough to pay him to pitch elsewhere. (And getting a good return is also not likely in this case. ) So does this lead to phantom DL stints like Sandoval got?

[jacksonianmarch]

Kershaw absolutely opts out. He’s got 2 yrs $65 mil left on his deal. But Kershaw has been the best pitcher in baseball when he takes the hill. Should he post a healthy season, he may approach, although likely will fall short of, his current AAV. But for him, it’ll be years. Kershaw plays this year as a 30 yr old. He’ll be 31 by the start of his first FA contract season. I think he can get a 5-6 year contract, and even if it’s “only” $25 mil per, he’ll dwarf the guaranteed money he’s going to get over the next two. Remember, these guaranteed contracts are huge and years are as if not more important than AAV.

[jacksonianmarch]

Price turns 33 this year and had 4 yrs left on his deal at $31 mil per. Kershaw is 3 years younger than Price with half as many guaranteed years left. If Price dominates this yr, I would foresee an Arrietta type shorter term deal if he opted out. No way he gets 4yrs $124 mil. No prayer.

[Bellhorn04]

It's not "nonsense". It's just very unlikely.

 

It is a true statement that the ONLY CHANCE he leaves Boston is of he wants to leave the city. The point here is that he certainly won't be doing it to get more money, since we all agree that is not going to happen period.

 

The "whine and trade" scenario is provaly more likely to happen but less likely to work. Since no one will take that contract, and hopefully Dombrowski isn't stupid enough to pay him to pitch elsewhere. (And getting a good return is also not likely in this case. ) So does this lead to phantom DL stints like Sandoval got?

 

Jeez, let's not start comparing Price to Panda...