6 Inning Starts + 6 Man Roration = Fewer Arm Problems

[cp176]

The thought of a manager giving extra rest or shutting down a healthy top of the line ace during the middle of a season because you fear his ability to get it done in the fall is nothing short of fan blat. It would be one thing if you were not in the middle of a pennant race but ridiculous if you are.

[Bellhorn04]

The six man rotation works if you go with 13 pitchers and have at least two holt’s on the bench.

 

I would instead propose that we go to a 13 pitcher squad, but every other cycle the Long reliever gets a start starting June 1st, and we stay on rotation even when we have a day off.

 

It is so important to get these pitchers locked in and focused on throwing strikes and secondary pitches through the first couple of months of the season.

 

I think we do not give our starters enough innings in spring training and they come out rusty to start each season.

 

LOL now every theory has been covered I think.

[Bellhorn04]

The thought of a manager giving extra rest or shutting down a healthy top of the line ace during the middle of a season because you fear his ability to get it done in the fall is nothing short of fan blat. It would be one thing if you were not in the middle of a pennant race but ridiculous if you are.

 

I hear ya cp.

[S5Dewey]

 

I would instead propose that we go to a 13 pitcher squad, but every other cycle the Long reliever gets a start starting June 1st, and we stay on rotation even when we have a day off.

 

This is a nice idea - until one thinks about the ramifications of it. What it does is give the #6 guy about 10 starts a year, all of them at the expense of five pitchers who are better than that #6.

 

That would provide for a lot of fresh arms in October, which they won't need because they'll be playing golf.

 

I'm as concerned as everyone is about the effect of multiple innings on Sale's arm but at the same time we need that guy out there starting games if we're going to qualify for the playoffs. I'd rather see him on a pitch count of.. say.. 90 and then turn the game over to the pen. Unfortunately even that is difficult to do because Sale isn't going to be happy about being pulled when he's cruisin', and an unhappy player may not be a productive player.

 

It's a tough call and I don't have the solution, but I don't see limiting the starts of the 5 man rotation as being the answer.

[Bellhorn04]

It's all basically armchair wizards trying to reinvent the wheel.

[OH FOY]

This is a nice idea - until one thinks about the ramifications of it. What it does is give the #6 guy about 10 starts a year, all of them at the expense of five pitchers who are better than that #6.

 

That would provide for a lot of fresh arms in October, which they won't need because they'll be playing golf.

 

I'm as concerned as everyone is about the effect of multiple innings on Sale's arm but at the same time we need that guy out there starting games if we're going to qualify for the playoffs. I'd rather see him on a pitch count of.. say.. 90 and then turn the game over to the pen. Unfortunately even that is difficult to do because Sale isn't going to be happy about being pulled when he's cruisin', and an unhappy player may not be a productive player.

 

It's a tough call and I don't have the solution, but I don't see limiting the starts of the 5 man rotation as being the answer.

 

This ^^^^^^

This is what I was hinting at, you only won division by 2 games this season, the quality of a #6 starter and a #1 will be huge. Missing those starts could be the difference in making the Post-Season. Not counting wear and tear on Bullpen. 5 man rotation is already watering down the talent in Starters. Just have to see when a Starter needs to skip a Start, or even maybe 2, at right times in season. Blowouts both ways, get them out. Big problem is you don't have the quality of Starters in the Minors to give them a cup of coffee. 1 or 2 Starts by sat 2 Minor Leaguers, with a good lead in division, would be ideal.

Edited October 21, 2017 by OH FOY!

[notin]

It's all basically armchair wizards trying to reinvent the wheel.

 

A couple years ago, both Tampa and KC tried to reinvent the wheel by limiting starters to 5 or 6 innings and going heavy on the bullpen.

 

I don't recall how it ended, but in August those teams ranked 1-2 in team ERA.

 

And I believe that was the year KC won the World Series. ..

[sk7326]

Terrific?

 

August 2017

 

4.38 ERA worst of the season

 

1.054 WHIP is pretty "terrific", but it was his second worst month.

 

OPS against:

.875 Sept

.640 May

.620 Aug

.574June

.500 July

.433 April

 

His K/BB ratio was 3rd worst in August and worst in September, so I'm not sure how his K rate and BB did not get worse at the end of the season. (1st half 8.09 & second half 6.19)

 

Career 1st half/2nd half

ERA: 2.74/ 3.28

WHIP: 0.97/ 1.14

OPS: .583/ .679

tOPS+ 86/ 116

K/BB: 5.34/4.90

 

tOPS+ by month (career)

87

72

90

101

105

138

 

His FIP in August was still 2.43 - plenty good. (close to Klubers) ... the walks went up to 5.6% which is still fine. He was still striking out tons of guys. Lower line drive rate than April-June. September and October were bad - although I can't imagine a 41% homerun/FB rate is built to last.

[OH FOY]

A couple years ago, both Tampa and KC tried to reinvent the wheel by limiting starters to 5 or 6 innings and going heavy on the bullpen.

 

I don't recall how it ended, but in August those teams ranked 1-2 in team ERA.

 

And I believe that was the year KC won the World Series. ..

 

Good point KC really didn't have a #1 that year in a way, and year before I believe. You can Manage it, if BP has quality arms.

[sk7326]

Good point KC really didn't have a #1 that year in a way, and year before I believe. You can Manage it, if BP has quality arms.

 

The way it was managed was about lineup turnover - some starters you might not trust a third time through the order. MOST starters you can't trust fourth time through (that includes true aces). What would help is having a couple of arms who can actually pitch more than one inning. You saw teams do this the entire postseason - although some teams might be overdoing it, emptying their bullpen is a gamble too.

[moonslav59]

You don't need a 6th starter to get Sale more rest. Maybe all we need is a solid RP'er or two who can go 2-3 innings, instead of just 1.

 

Maybe Beeks, Haley and/or Johnson could be groomed for that role. We could also use Kelly less often but for 2-3 innings per appearance. He was used for more than an inning several times last year and was a starter not long ago. Workman and Barnes could also be used that way a little more than this year.

 

If we're talking about only limiting Sale's pitches, it should not entail a major roster reconstruction or any fancy 6-man rotation ideas. We may not even need to stretch any short guys into long guys. We could just add one more solid RP'er to the already deep mix we have.

 

If we're talking Sale and Price, which maybe we should, then maybe we need to tweek a couple guys into middle relief 2-3 inning guys from the 1 to 2 IP guys they are now.

Personally, I'd keep Kelly as a 1 or 1.1 IP guy and try to use Barnes and Workman as 2-3 IP guys with less appearances.

 

I would not wait until June to start limiting IP'ed.

 

Look, I realize Sale's late season numbers could just be bad luck or a fluke. He could pitch 220 IP next year and be bad in July and great in October. We could miss the playoffs or divisional title by resting Sale a few pitches each start. I get that. It's a gamble. We can argue whether it's small gamble vs a big gamble. We can argue whether it's even necessary, but to me his career numbers scream out for trying something different.

 

I don't think taking 5-15 pitches off just about every start is going to keep us out of the playoffs in 2018, especially if we make a few key acquisitions. It would be bad to lose the division by a game or two, because we yanked Sale with the lead 2-3 times more than we could have. That would be awful, despite not really knowing what might have happened had we left him in.

 

Having a strong Sale in October should be a priority- maybe not a top priority, but one nonetheless. JF and Dusty just got fired for not getting past round one. Obviously, just making the playoffs isn't the top goal for teams that spend like we do.

 

Sale led the league in IP and pitched over 226 IP last year. It's not too much to ask for that not to happen in 2018. He pitched over 224 innings this year counting the playoffs.

 

I'm not going to go back and look at every game he pitched this year and the score when they took him out, but with just a cursory look at his game logs, I see he pitched over 107 pitches in all but 8 starts. He pitched 97 or more in all but 3 and only had one start under 92 IP.

 

He went 11 straight starts from May 30th to July 26th with 108+ pitches before letting up 7 ER in 5 IP on Aug 1st. Starting August first, he had 5 of his last 11 starts with less than 98 pitches. He let up 3 or more runs in 6 of those 11 starts (4 or more in 5 of 11). If you count his two playoff games, he never made it over 100 pitches in 7 of his last 13 games (one was in long relief). One might say, see he got some rest! I don't see it that way.

 

I think we should be more proactive and not so reactive. I'm not talking an 85 pitch count either, but keeping him under 90 or 95 every few starts could be all it takes. Maybe that's 8-12 starts a year. Maybe we lose 2-3 of those games because we pulled him an inning earlier, but to me it could very well still be "worth it". With a strong pen that might be more than what is probable.

 

Again, looking at his game logs, I feel we might not have lost any games had we done this (maybe not all these games, as I did not check what the score was when he was removed and what RP'er were available at the time):

 

4/20 1 less IP (8IP to 7IP) we won 4-1

5/7 1 less IP (6 to 5) we won 17-6

5/24 1 less IP (8 to 7) we won 9-4

5/30 1 less IP (5 to 4) we won 13-7

6/4 1 less IP (6 to 5) we won 7-3

6/10 less 2 IP (7 to 6) we won 11-3

6/27-10 less 1.1 IP (8.1 to 7) we won 8-3

6/26 less 1.1 IP (6.1 to 5) we won 4-1

7/1 less 1 or 2 IP ( 7 to 6 or 5) we won

7/21 less 1 IP (6 to 5) we won 6-2

7/26 less 1 IP (7 to 6) we won 4-0

9/20 less 2-3 IP (8 to 6 or 5) we won 9-0

 

These are 12 possible games we could have taken away up to 17.2 IPoff his work load. My guess is some of these games were closer when we took him out, but maybe taking away 10-14 IP could have led to no more losses at all- maybe not.

 

I'm not even sure limiting him by 14 IP would have made a difference in game 1 of the playoffs. I'm thinking it very well could have. It's just an opinion based on many moving speculative parts. I realize that.

 

I think we should try limiting his pitches next year- maybe not very game. Maybe giving him an extra day (more than he got this year) 5 times, which would amount to 1 lost start over the full season might be better. Maybe losing 2 starts works much better.

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

A couple years ago, both Tampa and KC tried to reinvent the wheel by limiting starters to 5 or 6 innings and going heavy on the bullpen.

 

I don't recall how it ended, but in August those teams ranked 1-2 in team ERA.

 

And I believe that was the year KC won the World Series. ..

 

The 2015 world champion Royals had a phenomenal season from their bullpen, with a 2.72 ERA. In 2016 their bullpen had a 3.45 ERA.

 

Lightning in a bottle...it happens, but you can't really count on it.

[Bellhorn04]

Again, looking at his game logs, I feel we might not have lost any games had we done this (maybe not all these games, as I did not check what the score was when he was removed and what RP'er were available at the time):

 

4/20 1 less IP (8IP to 7IP) we won 4-1

5/7 1 less IP (6 to 5) we won 17-6

5/24 1 less IP (8 to 7) we won 9-4

5/30 1 less IP (5 to 4) we won 13-7

6/4 1 less IP (6 to 5) we won 7-3

6/10 less 2 IP (7 to 6) we won 11-3

6/27-10 less 1.1 IP (8.1 to 7) we won 8-3

6/26 less 1.1 IP (6.1 to 5) we won 4-1

7/1 less 1 or 2 IP ( 7 to 6 or 5) we won

7/21 less 1 IP (6 to 5) we won 6-2

7/26 less 1 IP (7 to 6) we won 4-0

9/20 less 2-3 IP (8 to 6 or 5) we won 9-0

 

 

You do have to go through those game logs in more detail though. That June 10 11-3 game, for example, was tied 3-3 going to the bottom of the 7th.

 

You also have to consider who would have pitched those innings when we took Sale out early.

 

Probably Barnes, Hembree or Abad! Sound like fun?

[moonslav59]

Good point KC really didn't have a #1 that year in a way, and year before I believe. You can Manage it, if BP has quality arms.

 

Including arms that can go 2-3 IP--very good arms.

 

Look at CLE this year with Miller in long relief and still getting 57 appearances. They also had Otero and McAllister with more IP than games, and other RP'ers who went more than 1 IP several times.

[sk7326]

One thing to remember is - making the playoffs is good, and winning is good ... Sale allowed Farrell and the team to wallpaper over flaws with the rest of the rotation - and deploy the bullpen as effectively as they did all season.

 

After all, Porcello was the only other pitcher who provided consistent bulk. Pomeranz provided consistent quality without depth. Rodriguez just did not pitch enough period - same with Price. Fister was decent for a #5.

 

Sale's reliability allowed them to work around issues with the other 4 rotation spots. I mean yeah it'd be nice to manage Sale's workload a little bit more - but it is hard to say that they actually had that luxury.

[moonslav59]

You do have to go through those game logs in more detail though. That June 10 11-3 game, for example, was tied 3-3 going to the bottom of the 7th.

 

You also have to consider who would have pitched those innings when we took Sale out early.

 

Probably Barnes, Hembree or Abad! Sound like fun?

 

Yes, I'm sure there were other similar games, and I mentioned that possibility as well as the chances we might have lost a game or 2 by doing so. I get it.

 

Maybe someday, when I have more time, I'll so a more thorough study.

 

It might turn out that we could only have shaved off 5-10 IP without serious risk of losing a game or two more. I might also find a game we might have won.

[moonslav59]

One thing to remember is - making the playoffs is good, and winning is good ... Sale allowed Farrell and the team to wallpaper over flaws with the rest of the rotation - and deploy the bullpen as effectively as they did all season.

 

After all, Porcello was the only other pitcher who provided consistent bulk. Pomeranz provided consistent quality without depth. Rodriguez just did not pitch enough period - same with Price. Fister was decent for a #5.

 

Sale's reliability allowed them to work around issues with the other 4 rotation spots. I mean yeah it'd be nice to manage Sale's workload a little bit more - but it is hard to say that they actually had that luxury.

 

Very good points. I do think that with's Smith and Workman's return and a full season from Maddox, we should be better and deeper in the pen. We could even add another arm, preferably a long type RP'er.

[OH FOY]

That's why a guy like Bob Stanley is valuable. Kelly was a Starter his whole career, has a rubber arm, he should be used more for innings. 1 time through the order, is my philosophy with guys who were Starters, but have moved into BP role. Providing their stuff is good that day. That's why Managers who actually watch the games, get a feel for their Pitchers is important.

Most of the time you can see if a Pitcher has it that day or not.

[moonslav59]

That's why a guy like Bob Stanley is valuable. Kelly was a Starter his whole career, has a rubber arm, he should be used more for innings. 1 time through the order, is my philosophy with guys who were Starters, but have moved into BP role. Providing their stuff is good that day. That's why Managers who actually watch the games, get a feel for their Pitchers is important.

Most of the time you can see if a Pitcher has it that day or not.

 

Yes, I agree.

 

Kelly's FB is so hard, but it doesn't move much, so once through the line-up sounds like the upper limit.

[Kimmi]

It's all basically armchair wizards trying to reinvent the wheel.

 

There is a lot of merit to the idea of giving a starter some extra rest during the season, as there is merit to not burning out your bullpen in June. We all know that a manager must manage the marathon of a long season differently than he manages in September or in the post season.

 

I have no problem with throwing in a spot starter now and then to give a guy like Sale some extra rest if it will keep him stronger and better in October. That said, I was very much against skipping Sale's start at the end of the season when we had not yet clinched the division. Marathon vs sprint.

[Kimmi]

One thing to remember is - making the playoffs is good, and winning is good ... Sale allowed Farrell and the team to wallpaper over flaws with the rest of the rotation - and deploy the bullpen as effectively as they did all season.

 

After all, Porcello was the only other pitcher who provided consistent bulk. Pomeranz provided consistent quality without depth. Rodriguez just did not pitch enough period - same with Price. Fister was decent for a #5.

 

Sale's reliability allowed them to work around issues with the other 4 rotation spots. I mean yeah it'd be nice to manage Sale's workload a little bit more - but it is hard to say that they actually had that luxury.

 

Very good points sk.

[bosoxmal]

It's all basically armchair wizards trying to reinvent the wheel.

 

The wheel is broken. Pitchers can no longer go even close to 200 innings. Price was a whi bang until October ame around, And what is his post season record? Lousy. This whole thing (the history) can proably be traced back to Carl Hubbell and his screw bal. Mariano R. was almost always good for an inning only. Ever wonder why? And where do wheels belong in a conversation about pitcher;s and their arm problems?

[moonslav59]

The wheel is broken. Pitchers can no longer go even close to 200 innings. Price was a whi bang until October ame around, And what is his post season record? Lousy. This whole thing (the history) can proably be traced back to Carl Hubbell and his screw bal. Mariano R. was almost always good for an inning only. Ever wonder why? And where do wheels belong in a conversation about pitcher;s and their arm problems?

 

I don't get it either. Pitchers used to go very 4 days and go deeper in the games as well.

 

There were injuries then, but if it's all about IP, one would have expected more.

[harmony]

I don't get it either. Pitchers used to go very 4 days and go deeper in the games as well.

 

There were injuries then, but if it's all about IP, one would have expected more.

It’s hard to calculate the number of career-ending injuries in the days of 300-inning seasons. Perhaps some pitchers blew out their arms after consecutive seasons of 300+ innings at the minor league level.

 

The 300-inning pitcher at the MLB level could have been the product of survival of the fittest, not necessarily survival of the most gifted,

[moonslav59]

It’s hard to calculate the number of career-ending injuries in the days of 300-inning seasons. Perhaps some pitchers blew out their arms after consecutive seasons of 300+ innings at the minor league level.

 

The 300-inning pitcher at the MLB level could have been the product of survival of the fittest, not necessarily survival of the most gifted,

 

They might not have thrown as hard. They may not have thrown many breaking balls that stresses the arm further.

 

There were some great pitchers who were iron men at the same time.

 

Forget 300 innings. Ib Cy Young;s first few seasons he pitched over 400 for four straight seasons and 5 of 6. Not only did that not break him down, after those 6 seasons, he followed it up with 9 straight 300 IP seasons and 10 of 11. At ages 41 & 42, he pitched over 290 IP.

 

I guess that's why they call it the Cy Young Award!

 

In the last 40 years, a pitcher has gone over 300 IP: Phil Neikro twice and Steve Carlton once. When you look at the list of the 33 pitchers who went 275 or more, they almost all are great pitchers who had very long careers.

 

P Niekro x 3

Carlton x 3

Palmer

Dennis Leonard x 2

Blyleven

Dennis Martinez x 2

Charlie Hough

Clemens

Steve Rogers x 2

J Morris

 

Yes, you have the Fernando Valenzuela's who were burnt out by 27 and a couple one hit wonders, but most were great ones.

[moonslav59]

Only CC Sabathia has gone over 252 IP since 2008.

 

Verlander went 251 in 2011. He's still going strong.

 

In the last 10 years, these are the top single seasons IP by SP'ers:

 

(Look how many have been hurt)

 

All with 236+ IP in at least one season:

 

253 CC Sabathia x 3

251 Verlander x 3

251 Halladay x 2 (this decade only)

250 Felix x 3

249 Shields

248 Price

244 Cueto

242 Wainwright

238 D Haren

237 Carpenter

236 Kershaw

[sk7326]

The wheel is broken. Pitchers can no longer go even close to 200 innings. Price was a whi bang until October ame around, And what is his post season record? Lousy. This whole thing (the history) can proably be traced back to Carl Hubbell and his screw bal. Mariano R. was almost always good for an inning only. Ever wonder why? And where do wheels belong in a conversation about pitcher;s and their arm problems?

 

Pitchers throw a lot harder than in the olden days - some of that is evolutionary ... but I think some of it is industry thinking. Put another way, do you really need Old Hoss Radbourn when 3 pitchers can do the same job better?

[Bellhorn04]

The dilemma with Sale this season can be stated simply.

Yes, we could have shaved some innings off his arm.

In so doing, we would have risked not winning the division.

[Behindenemylines]

It's not up to the players union for a 6 man rotation. Also, the GM's wouldn't buy this. Starting pitchers have bloated salaries and now you are asking to increase the spots by 20%. This will drive up salaries, which the players would love, but GM's wouldn't and the cap wouldn't accommodate it. This is a moot point

 

How much money is tied up with pitchers who blow their arms out and teams need to find additional SPs any way? Whose to say that the number six starter wouldn't be a younger less expensive guy who a team is looking to limit innings. I don't know if you can make the claim that teams will be spending that much more. Grant it the only way this works if the rosters are expanded because benches are already shorter because most teams have the extra arm in the bullpen.

[harmony]

Pitchers throw a lot harder than in the olden days - some of that is evolutionary ... but I think some of it is industry thinking. Put another way, do you really need Old Hoss Radbourn when 3 pitchers can do the same job better?

Injuries may be an unintended consequence of the advent of the radar gun.