Mookie, Petey and the First Pitch (Think Altuve)

[bosoxmal]

So the Red Sox should change an offensive strategy that has been working for over a dozen years based on one season in which they lacked a legitimate cleanup hitter for the first time?

 

 

When a hitter gets in the box, I don't think they are concerned with overall strategy. The mgr puts the best he has in the lineup. They are supposed to MAKE CONTACT, not look for a BB. Altuve i, like TW or Joe D. is looking to make contact, and put a good swing on the ball. Low and away sliders do not fit. Most first pitches arefast balls or backdoor curves. and the pitchers do not want to go 1-0. Unfortunately, the dugout reaction to a ground out sending a man from 2nd to 3rd is like he hit a HR. Bulshit. A ground ball to 2B is not what he should be looking for.

[illinoisredsox]

So the Red Sox should change an offensive strategy that has been working for over a dozen years based on one season in which they lacked a legitimate cleanup hitter for the first time?

 

No. But they do have to adjust to what pitchers are doing. No one is saying swing at a knee high fastball on the outside corner on the first pitch. But we all know that waaaay too often, that first pitch has become a get me over fastball right down the middle. That's the pitch they should be looking to hit hard. Make the pitcher have to paint the corner with that first pitch. Make the pitcher adjust.

 

Bogaerts has taken this to new levels. I think I saw in Baseball Reference that the most likely count he saw this past season was 1-2, and it sure seemed like a lot of those were taken strikes. I amazed he hit as well as he did, but it also explains a lot of his weak contact.

 

And if you still want to dive up pitch count, learn to foul off tough pitches. The Astros did this very well this season.

[sk7326]

No. But they do have to adjust to what pitchers are doing. No one is saying swing at a knee high fastball on the outside corner on the first pitch. But we all know that waaaay too often, that first pitch has become a get me over fastball right down the middle. That's the pitch they should be looking to hit hard. Make the pitcher have to paint the corner with that first pitch. Make the pitcher adjust.

 

Bogaerts has taken this to new levels. I think I saw in Baseball Reference that the most likely count he saw this past season was 1-2, and it sure seemed like a lot of those were taken strikes. I amazed he hit as well as he did, but it also explains a lot of his weak contact.

 

And if you still want to dive up pitch count, learn to foul off tough pitches. The Astros did this very well this season.

 

They still walked a lot and made a ton of contact - indeed, they probably needed to take more pitches and drive the pitches they got a bit more.

[Elktonnick]

So the Red Sox should change an offensive strategy that has been working for over a dozen years based on one season in which they lacked a legitimate cleanup hitter for the first time?

 

Yes!

[Elktonnick]

No. But they do have to adjust to what pitchers are doing. No one is saying swing at a knee high fastball on the outside corner on the first pitch. But we all know that waaaay too often, that first pitch has become a get me over fastball right down the middle. That's the pitch they should be looking to hit hard. Make the pitcher have to paint the corner with that first pitch. Make the pitcher adjust.

 

Bogaerts has taken this to new levels. I think I saw in Baseball Reference that the most likely count he saw this past season was 1-2, and it sure seemed like a lot of those were taken strikes. I amazed he hit as well as he did, but it also explains a lot of his weak contact.

 

And if you still want to dive up pitch count, learn to foul off tough pitches. The Astros did this very well this season.

 

Bogaerts is the poster child for an out dated approach toward hitting. Albeit that he was beset with a wrist injury for most of the second half but even with that impediment he looked like the poster child for Rich Gedman's Charlie Lau swing. I couldn't tell if he was swinging a baseball bat or chopping wood. He looked pathetic especially in the clutch.

[sk7326]

Bogaerts is the poster child for an out dated approach toward hitting. Albeit that he was beset with a wrist injury for most of the second half but even with that impediment he looked like the poster child for Rich Gedman's Charlie Lau swing. I couldn't tell if he was swinging a baseball bat or chopping wood. He looked pathetic especially in the clutch.

 

Hitting is hard when you can't hold the bat

[a700hitter]

Hitting is hard when you can't hold the bat

Even when his hands are healthy, he has a very ugly swing. Most of the time it looks defensive.

[devildavid]

Hitting is very individualized. Part of hitting is being selective in a way that maximizes the chances of getting on base. Hitting coaches should be there to give tips and point out flaws or weaknesses in the technical aspect of hitting, as long as the ultimate goal is to maximize that individual hitters potential. Telling hitters to take pitches or change things up probably will not help if it messes up that hitters normal approach.

 

Real life lesson. Minnesota had a hitting philosophy that hampered David Ortiz early in his career.

 

Ortiz blames Kelly also for his light-hitting early seasons, saying that the manager favored slap hitters because of the Metrodome’s turf. “So I kissed his ass for a couple of years and became the biggest slap hitter you’ll ever see,” writes the 6' 3", 230-pound Ortiz.

 

david-ortiz-boston-red-sox-book

[Elktonnick]

Hitting is very individualized. Part of hitting is being selective in a way that maximizes the chances of getting on base. Hitting coaches should be there to give tips and point out flaws or weaknesses in the technical aspect of hitting, as long as the ultimate goal is to maximize that individual hitters potential. Telling hitters to take pitches or change things up probably will not help if it messes up that hitters normal approach.

 

Real life lesson. Minnesota had a hitting philosophy that hampered David Ortiz early in his career.

 

 

 

david-ortiz-boston-red-sox-book

 

That's what Bogaerts is now a slap hitter with a downward stroke a la Charlie Lau. But the game has changed. Plus the league has adjusted to XB. They know he takes too many fastballs early in the count only to throw down and away breaking balls with two strikes resulting in either a strike out or a weak grounder

[oldtimer]

So the Red Sox should change an offensive strategy that has been working for over a dozen years based on one season in which they lacked a legitimate cleanup hitter for the first time?

 

Maybe. Houston as a team is more aggressive. Take Altuve out of the discussion and they still tend to swing at the first pitch they like, not all the time, but more often than the Sox. Dusty Baker complained that his guys had been taking too many good pitches and putting themselves in holes. When you take two good pitches as a hitter, you are at a big disadvantage. I think we will have a new manager and probably a new hitting coach and they may well move in a different direction, especially since the leading managerial candidate is Cora of Houston.

[Elktonnick]

Maybe. Houston as a team is more aggressive. Take Altuve out of the discussion and they still tend to swing at the first pitch they like, not all the time, but more often than the Sox. Dusty Baker complained that his guys had been taking too many good pitches and putting themselves in holes. When you take two good pitches as a hitter, you are at a big disadvantage. I think we will have a new manager and probably a new hitting coach and they may well move in a different direction, especially since the leading managerial candidate is Cora of Houston.

 

I have been arguing for more than a year that Boston needed a new approach toward hitting to adjust to the changes in the game resulting from the increased number of power arms coming out of the bullpen and the increased use of the defensive shift. If Alex Cora is the manager to institute such a change then I am in favor of his hiring.

[a700hitter]

I have been arguing for more than a year that Boston needed a new approach toward hitting to adjust to the changes in the game resulting from the increased number of power arms coming out of the bullpen and the increased use of the defensive shift. If Alex Cora is the manager to institute such a change then I am in favor of his hiring.

I get a little worried about these guys who have been identified as future managers while they are still playing. I remember Butch Hobson. We fired Joe Morgan, who had been doing a fine job with a thinly talented roster, because the Red Sox FO was worried about losing Hobson to the Yankees. What a mistake!

[jad]

The forty point difference in OBP shows the advantage that one extra ball can give. Not sure if the slugging advantage is a product of the aggressive hitting or a statement about the types of hitters who swing at the first pitch....

 

It could also be that when a hitter swings at the first pitch, it's because it's a really good one to hit. Balls outside the zone, even borderline strikes--probably he'll let go. This is not, I would think, necessarily the case with pitches for any other count, particularly a two strike count.

[oldtimer]

It could also be that when a hitter swings at the first pitch, it's because it's a really good one to hit. Balls outside the zone, even borderline strikes--probably he'll let go. This is not, I would think, necessarily the case with pitches for any other count, particularly a two strike count.

 

Some of our guys were having a difficult time with pitch recognition. When they would get down in the strike count, they were often fooled by sliders down and away. Thinking of Betts and Bogey in that case. Being down on the count just increased that tendency.

[sk7326]

Some of our guys were having a difficult time with pitch recognition. When they would get down in the strike count, they were often fooled by sliders down and away. Thinking of Betts and Bogey in that case. Being down on the count just increased that tendency.

 

They struck out remarkably little for a team that did not recognize pitches.

[mvp 78]

They struck out remarkably little for a team that did not recognize pitches.

 

This team walks a lot (10th), k's very little (4th lowest), has a high obp (11th), but can't SLG for s*** (26th).

[mvp 78]

In a juiced ball year, the Sox were 27th in HR. Yuck!

[sk7326]

This team walks a lot (10th), k's very little (4th lowest), has a high obp (11th), but can't SLG for s*** (26th).

 

the lack of power definitely needs to be fixed. the homeruns could be overlooked a tad if the doubles held it up - which was the real disappointment. Any team which plays at Fenway should not be outside the Top 2 or 3 in that area.

[S5Dewey]

I may have posted this before - I'm old and I forget what I've said to whom - but college baseball has gone to a flatter seamed ball that allows the balls with near HR power to carry about 20' further than the old ball. Maybe MLB has gone to that too?

 

Whatever. The juiced ball is probably here to stay so the Sox have to adapt to the change.

 

The thing that has bothered me the most about the juiced ball vs. the Sox lack of HR's is that our season may have had better resuts had the ball not been juiced. This team wasn't built to hit HR's, rather to get a lot of base hits, and the juiced ball worked against them.

[jacksonianmarch]

Also, flatter seamed balls are harder to snap, so you’ll see more hanging breaking balls and less movement on the whole compared to raised seam balls

[S5Dewey]

Also, flatter seamed balls are harder to snap, so you’ll see more hanging breaking balls and less movement on the whole compared to raised seam balls

 

...which would lead to more HR's. That's a good point. I hadn't though of it from that angle.

[jad]

...which would lead to more HR's. That's a good point. I hadn't though of it from that angle.

 

Just curious: when did MLB start removing from play any ball that has touched the dirt? It would seem to me that a brand new ball would carry further than one that has been hit a few times, even though when new, they are identical.

[FredLynn]

Hitting is hard when you can't hold the bat

 

His issue was lack of pitch recognition: he could not recognize a slider and as a result swung at pitches a foot off the plate sometimes. Word gets around......

[sk7326]

His issue was lack of pitch recognition: he could not recognize a slider and as a result swung at pitches a foot off the plate sometimes. Word gets around......

 

He hit them to right field in 2015, he laid off of them in 2016 ... the impact of hand injuries to players is significant enough to give benefit of the doubt

[TedWilliams101]

I generally like the patient strategy to make the pitchers work... but it does get really frustrating when it becomes so automatic that guys are watching the first pitch go right down the middle of the plate; fat, hit-able pitches; then proceed to strike out on 3 or 4 pitches. I love working up pitch counts, but when you get a good pitch to hit, you have to swing at it. That might be the only good pitch you get all at bat, maybe even all game. While it's true you don't want to let a pitcher off the hook on pitch 1 or in a 3-0 count... you also don't want to let them off the hook by taking a fat pitch, begging to be crushed.

[Dojji]

That's what Bogaerts is now a slap hitter with a downward stroke a la Charlie Lau. But the game has changed. Plus the league has adjusted to XB. They know he takes too many fastballs early in the count only to throw down and away breaking balls with two strikes resulting in either a strike out or a weak grounder

 

Bogaerts has had a career marked by inconsistency and a poor ability to pull out of slumps and adjust to new tactics from pitchers. He's also transitioning from being in one of the protected positions in the lineup, to splitting time hitting first and third, arguably the two most important positions in the lineup and the positions most strategized against by pitching coaches.

 

I think there's plenty of things to point out why Bogaerts struggled a bit more this year without inventing vague conspiracy theories about turning him into a slap hitter. If he's shortened his swing, it's quite possibly because getting on base was the #1 job at his spot in the lineup.

 

It's worth noting that swinging at the first pitch nets Bogaerts a .241/.290/.276 line for a dismally bad .566 OPS. In other words, those of you who want Bogaerts to get aggressive early in the count are literally asking him to play into his biggest weakness as a hitter.

 

Bogaerts wins if he can work the count, if he swings at the first pitch it almost never results in a hit and when it does it's a single. Making him do the single thing he's most terrible at as a hitter, MORE often, is not helping.

Edited October 18, 2017 by Dojji

[Dojji]

Maybe. Houston as a team is more aggressive. Take Altuve out of the discussion and they still tend to swing at the first pitch they like, not all the time, but more often than the Sox. Dusty Baker complained that his guys had been taking too many good pitches and putting themselves in holes. When you take two good pitches as a hitter, you are at a big disadvantage. I think we will have a new manager and probably a new hitting coach and they may well move in a different direction, especially since the leading managerial candidate is Cora of Houston.

 

And aggression can work, but it's a higher risk higher reward style of offense. You are going to pull off some amazing years if an aggressive hitter manages to run into the ball more often than average. But the other side of the coin is just as likely where an entire offense spends 2 weeks not being able to find the ball, and even if you get lucky for awhile, law of averages WILL catch up with you in the end. Aggression does not improve your numbers, it simply increases the statistical spread.

 

It's worth noting that Houston is as aggressive as it is because their lineup is hella talented. If it's not your intention that the red Sox offensive lineup is every bit as talented as the immensely talented Astros lineup -- and it isn't, because that would be both wrong and insane -- then trying to illuminate your point by the fact that a lineup that is collectively very, very good at hitting, is good at hitting this year, isn't actually saying anything and sheds no illumination whatsoever on what the Boston Red Sox, with their very different team composition, should or should not do.

Edited October 18, 2017 by Dojji

[mvp 78]

I generally like the patient strategy to make the pitchers work... but it does get really frustrating when it becomes so automatic that guys are watching the first pitch go right down the middle of the plate; fat, hit-able pitches; then proceed to strike out on 3 or 4 pitches. I love working up pitch counts, but when you get a good pitch to hit, you have to swing at it. That might be the only good pitch you get all at bat, maybe even all game. While it's true you don't want to let a pitcher off the hook on pitch 1 or in a 3-0 count... you also don't want to let them off the hook by taking a fat pitch, begging to be crushed.

 

I agree. I think that's the biggest complaint I have with Pedroia's approach. I understand wanting to take the first pitch no matter what when you are seeing a guy for the first time. However, the second time through the order, they need to look for a pitch to swing at. If something is in the hit me zone, just let it rip.

[Dojji]

Dustin Pedroia's pitch splits:

 

First pitch swinging

2017:.250/.250/.300/.550

Career:.337/.344/.516/.860

 

0-1

 

2017: .327/.327/.400/.727

Career:.349/.350/.469/.820

 

1-0

 

2017:.429/,405/.743/1.148

CareerL .364/.360/.593/.953

 

It is absolutely and entirely reasonable for Dustin Pedroia to take the first pitch. Historically he's no worse off for being down 0-1 than he is on an even count, and this year he was so ineffective swinging at the first pitch over a small sample size that he looked better down 0-1 than he did with a clean count. The reward of getting that early ball and the advantage it gives Pedroia, is absolutely worth the very small penalty to his numbers that he gets with a strike on him.

 

Pedroia is an aggressive fellow by nature, if he thought jumping on the first pitch would reward him he'd absolutely do it, but a patient approach at the plate has always rewarded him, so why not let him play to his strengths rather than fussing about how you'd rather see him do his job?

[mvp 78]

Dojji,

 

He only swung at 22 first pitches all year for a rate of 4.75%.

 

Jose Altuve swung at 143 first pitches for a rate of 21.6%.

 

I think Altuve has a better approach.

 

Sox fans still incorrectly think Pedroia is their own Altuve, but Pedroia isn't a shell of what he was in 2011. That's history pal. Unless he fixes his approach, his career is toast.