A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[notin]

Yes - Leon = "minor trade chip"

As a part of a package, he becomes more valuable.

 

Leon can be traded, but any trade he is in won't look radically different if he was left out.

 

His inclusion won't be a deal breaker except in very minor trades, since very similar players can be found in every free agent market and cost very little money.

[notin]

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Leon get traded. He's a solid defensive catcher and there's always room for one of those, especially one who's shown flashes of offensive brilliance. After all, we have a CF who fits that profile - ok, a little better than "solid" at his position, but still... those flashes of brilliance give hope. Leon will never be the centerpiece of a trade but as 176 says, he adds a lot of value as part of a trade.

 

I also think we've been underestimating Swihart as a catcher. He's not Vaz behind the plate but that's ok as a backup. Plus he's cheap.

 

Swihart's future appears to be headed in the super sub direction. The Sox have been trying him in a multitude of new positions at varying times.

 

I wouldn't even eliminate the possibility of more corner outfield play in his future...

[FredLynn]

Swihart's future appears to be headed in the super sub direction. The Sox have been trying him in a multitude of new positions at varying times.

 

I wouldn't even eliminate the possibility of more corner outfield play in his future...

 

Swihart isn't going to HAVE a future if he cannot learn to hit the baseball.

[a700hitter]

I read that they are thinking of giving Swihart some time at second base. I am skeptical of his ability to handle second base with his damaged ankle. His ankle injury is apparently a chronic issue.

[Spudboy]

I read that they are thinking of giving Swihart some time at second base. I am skeptical of his ability to handle second base with his damaged ankle. His ankle injury is apparently a chronic issue.

 

I share your skepticism although Swi stated this week that his ankle/foot feels better than it has felt for 2 years. Not sure what that indicates.

 

I don't share others opinions of his hitting. I saw him make adjustments in 2015 and he already has a better hit tool than many Sox "prsopects".

[harmony]

I share your skepticism although Swi stated this week that his ankle/foot feels better than it has felt for 2 years. Not sure what that indicates.

 

I don't share others opinions of his hitting. I saw him make adjustments in 2015 and he already has a better hit tool than many Sox "prsopects".

Pitchers have since made adjustments to Blake Swihart. The prognosis is not good (although I hope Swihart proves me wrong).

Edited November 20, 2017 by harmony

[harmony]

The Red Sox have added left-hander Jalen Beeks, right-hander Ty Buttrey and right-hander Chandler Shepherd to the 40-man roster:

 

[cp176]

Pitchers have since made adjustments to Blake Swihart. The prognosis is not good (although I hope Swihart proves me wrong).

 

I would be curious to know who would have made adjustments and how many they made? When was the last ml game Swihart played in? Regardless of what he might do going forward, there is no way anybody can guess at what he might be capable of doing. His experience factor isn't very high. We might all be pleasantly surprised.

[moonslav59]

I'm kind of surprised Buttrey was added.

 

Beeks and Shepherd were predictable.

[harmony]

I would be curious to know who would have made adjustments and how many they made? When was the last ml game Swihart played in? Regardless of what he might do going forward, there is no way anybody can guess at what he might be capable of doing. His experience factor isn't very high. We might all be pleasantly surprised.

This year Blake Swihart, who turns 26 years old the first week of the 2018 season, posted a wRC+ of 47 in 212 plate appearances covering 53 games at Triple A Pawtucket.

 

In 109 career games at the MLB level, Swihart has posted a .270/.330/.383/.713 line with a wRC+ of 93. Swihart has one year and 164 days of MLB service.

 

In 1,716 plate appearances covering 420 minor league games, Swihart has a career line of .269/.328/.398/.727.

 

Steamer projects Swihart with a 2018 line of .242/.304/.369/.673 with a wRC+ of 76 and a WAR of a negative 0.1 in 16 games.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C

 

Swihart last played in an MLB game on October 1, 2017:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS201710010.shtml

[Bellhorn04]

This year Blake Swihart, who turns 26 years old the first week of the 2018 season, posted a wRC+ of 47 in 212 plate appearances covering 53 games at Triple A Pawtucket.

 

In 109 career games at the MLB level, Swihart has posted a .270/.330/.383/.713 line with a wRC+ of 93. Swihart has one year and 164 days of MLB service.

 

In 1,716 plate appearances covering 420 minor league games, Swihart has a career line of .269/.328/.398/.727.

 

Steamer projects Swihart with a 2018 line of .242/.304/.369/.673 with a wRC+ of 76 and a WAR of a negative 0.1 in 16 games.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C

 

Swihart last played in an MLB game on October 1, 2017:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS201710010.shtml

 

Swihart also had a fairly devastating injury in 2016, who knows how much it set him back.

[Spudboy]

Pitchers have since made adjustments to Blake Swihart. The prognosis is not good (although I hope Swihart proves me wrong).

 

How do we know this? Some fan posting on a board and his opinion becomes fact?

 

For all the s*** you good folk give Swi and especially for saying he has never hit and will never hit it is my recollection that it was his hitting that made him a top prospect.

 

You can look at his numbers and conclude that he has not shown progress or much production. I see a young talent that has not been handled particularly well and has had major career threatening injury leading to a protracted recovery and stalled development.

 

I think he can hit well enough in MLB to warrant a spot on a 25 man.

 

He is a couple of years behind schedule now. If he is finally healthy I hope that we get to see him play and play well.

[moonslav59]

This year Blake Swihart, who turns 26 years old the first week of the 2018 season, posted a wRC+ of 47 in 212 plate appearances covering 53 games at Triple A Pawtucket.

 

In 109 career games at the MLB level, Swihart has posted a .270/.330/.383/.713 line with a wRC+ of 93. Swihart has one year and 164 days of MLB service.

 

In 1,716 plate appearances covering 420 minor league games, Swihart has a career line of .269/.328/.398/.727.

 

Steamer projects Swihart with a 2018 line of .242/.304/.369/.673 with a wRC+ of 76 and a WAR of a negative 0.1 in 16 games.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C

 

Swihart last played in an MLB game on October 1, 2017:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS201710010.shtml

 

Not every player follows the path of recent numbers and steamer projections.

 

I gave up on Travis Shaw based on similar numbers on the farm and some bad stretches in short stints in the bigs.

 

I'm not very confident in Swihart's chances at making it big, but I do still see some promise.

 

He's not going to be given a key role next year, so if he fails, it won't be a big deal, and he can be replaced.

 

I'm hoping he does well, and I won't be surprised if he does.

[moonslav59]

It's not like a .713 OPS is horrible for a player's first 390 MLB PAs.

 

Baseball Reference projects a .746 OPS in 2018.

 

His last two full seasons in the minors, before his injury in 2016 and ML stint in 2015 saw some very promising offensive numbers:

 

2013: .794 OPS in A+ (422 PAs)

2014: .810 OPS in AA & AAA (451 PAs)

 

Yes, his 2016-2017 numbers on the farm are far from encouraging, but he was coming off an injury and played sparingly (122 PAs in 2016 and 250 in 2017).

[harmony]

How do we know this? Some fan posting on a board and his opinion becomes fact?

 

For all the s*** you good folk give Swi and especially for saying he has never hit and will never hit it is my recollection that it was his hitting that made him a top prospect.

 

You can look at his numbers and conclude that he has not shown progress or much production. I see a young talent that has not been handled particularly well and has had major career threatening injury leading to a protracted recovery and stalled development.

 

I think he can hit well enough in MLB to warrant a spot on a 25 man.

 

He is a couple of years behind schedule now. If he is finally healthy I hope that we get to see him play and play well.

Thank you for your opinion.

[Bellhorn04]

Thank you for your opinion.

 

This is called being passive-aggressive.

[cp176]

How do we know this? Some fan posting on a board and his opinion becomes fact?

 

For all the s*** you good folk give Swi and especially for saying he has never hit and will never hit it is my recollection that it was his hitting that made him a top prospect.

 

You can look at his numbers and conclude that he has not shown progress or much production. I see a young talent that has not been handled particularly well and has had major career threatening injury leading to a protracted recovery and stalled development.

 

I think he can hit well enough in MLB to warrant a spot on a 25 man.

 

He is a couple of years behind schedule now. If he is finally healthy I hope that we get to see him play and play well.

 

He is a beginner in many respects. He still has the talent it just didn't decide to disappear. This is where I tend to be bothered by the over use of analytics. He has hardly played and someone truly thinks that it is the predictable going forward with respect to what he might do. I'm with you- I really hope he gets a chance and gets it done. If he is healthy, I believe he will.

[cp176]

This is called being passive-aggressive.

 

We tend to see a lot of that here.

[Kimmi]

I read that they are thinking of giving Swihart some time at second base. I am skeptical of his ability to handle second base with his damaged ankle. His ankle injury is apparently a chronic issue.

 

I am not really keen on the idea of Swihart playing second base, but who knows, he might prove me wrong. Either way, if he can get truly healthy, I think he can contribute to our big league club in some capacity. I'm pulling for the guy.

[Spudboy]

This is called being passive-aggressive.

 

Ah f*** 'em.

 

I read everone's opinion here. I just stated my own opinion.

[a700hitter]

I am not really keen on the idea of Swihart playing second base, but who knows, he might prove me wrong. Either way, if he can get truly healthy, I think he can contribute to our big league club in some capacity. I'm pulling for the guy.

Chronic ankle problems never go away. The condition usually deteriorates.

[notin]

I don't see him at 2B, either. That seems like a despearte move, but then, their staff is certainly more familiar with his ankle than any of us.

 

But at the very least, I could see Swihart as a catcher-corner infielder-corner outfielder as a part time player. I don't think that's the craziest of expectations...

[Larry Cook]

I don't see him at 2B, either. That seems like a despearte move, but then, their staff is certainly more familiar with his ankle than any of us.

 

But at the very least, I could see Swihart as a catcher-corner infielder-corner outfielder as a part time player. I don't think that's the craziest of expectations...

 

I agree 100%. It would be interesting to know what the doctor’s think about his ankle.

[moonslav59]

I know Swihart is pretty athletic, but I do not see him as being capable enough to play 2B.

 

It's not really a doctor's call on 2B.

 

I'm glad his ankle is feeling better. I hope there are no relapses.

 

I'd like to see him get a real chance to show what he's got. It's not like trading Holt is going to upset me. It's not like keeping Lin at AAA is either. Marrero is out of options, but I'm not going worry about his future with the Sox.

 

Marco should make the 25 man roster. It sounds like Brentz gets the 4th OF slot. The rest of the bench is wide open.

 

[notin]

I know Swihart is pretty athletic, but I do not see him as being capable enough to play 2B.

 

It's not really a doctor's call on 2B.

 

I'm glad his ankle is feeling better. I hope there are no relapses.

 

I'd like to see him get a real chance to show what he's got. It's not like trading Holt is going to upset me. It's not like keeping Lin at AAA is either. Marrero is out of options, but I'm not going worry about his future with the Sox.

 

Marco should make the 25 man roster. It sounds like Brentz gets the 4th OF slot. The rest of the bench is wide open.

 

 

I've never been all that crazy about Brentz, and I still am not. He did have a great year at Pawtucket, but I can't get excited about the future of any player who takes 5 years to put it all together at AAA. I can't get excited about him even in a bench role. If he makes the opening day roster, will he still be there in June? His only real selling point right now is price. If an outfielder actually gets hurt, Brentz could play himself out of the majors in a month.

 

But free agency doesn't dazzle with better options. Ben Revere and Michael Saunders might both be at points where they are willing to take part time roles, but neither will settle for Brentz' money. And Saunders has been particularly unreliable from a health standpoint.

 

It is possible some sort of boring, low level trade like dealing Sandy Leon (2.8 fWAR in 2016-2017) could be dealt for a fourth outfielder like Mallex Smith (1.3 fWAR in 2016-17) or Jake Marisnick (1.3 fWAR in 2016-17). But then not sure if either Tampa or Houston value their backup outfielders more than a backup catcher0 (Both likely do in this case.) Or if they have other solutions better than Leon.

 

Brock Holt could also be dealt, but he will probably be in line at 2B (a position he is horrible at. I prefer Swihart there sight unseen) or flat out non-tendered. Personally, I prefer Marrero over Holt at this point...

Edited November 21, 2017 by notin

[oldtimer]

I've never been all that crazy about Brentz, and I still am not. He did have a great year at Pawtucket, but I can't get excited about the future of any player who takes 5 years to put it all together at AAA. I can't get excited about him even in a bench role. If he makes the opening day roster, will he still be there in June? His only real selling point right now is price. If an outfielder actually gets hurt, Brentz could play himself out of the majors in a month.

 

But free agency doesn't dazzle with better options. Ben Revere and Michael Saunders might both be at points where they are willing to take part time roles, but neither will settle for Brentz' money. And Saunders has been particularly unreliable from a health standpoint.

 

It is possible some sort of boring, low level trade like dealing Sandy Leon (2.8 fWAR in 2016-2017) could be dealt for a fourth outfielder like Mallex Smith (1.3 fWAR in 2016-17) or Jake Marisnick (1.3 fWAR in 2016-17). But then not sure if either Tampa or Houston value their backup outfielders more than a backup catcher0 (Both likely do in this case.) Or if they have other solutions better than Leon.

 

Brock Holt could also be dealt, but he will probably be in line at 2B (a position he is horrible at. I prefer Swihart there sight unseen) or flat out non-tendered. Personally, I prefer Marrero over Holt at this point...

 

With Cora in as manager and a new coaching staff, there won't be the same attachment to Holt that JF seemed to feel. I expect he will be gone before the season starts. Leon, on the other hand would need to replaced and I am not sure Swihart is that guy, so that remains an open question to me.

 

With the Sox question marks at this point, it would be good if at least some will be acted on by DD before we get into the new year.

[notin]

With Cora in as manager and a new coaching staff, there won't be the same attachment to Holt that JF seemed to feel. I expect he will be gone before the season starts. Leon, on the other hand would need to replaced and I am not sure Swihart is that guy, so that remains an open question to me.

 

With the Sox question marks at this point, it would be good if at least some will be acted on by DD before we get into the new year.

 

At this point, I'm more OK with Swihart in a bench role that Holt.

 

If Swihart does make the team, he doesn't need to be the only backup catcher, if all of these moves trying him around the field pan out. In fact, the team would probably still need a dedicated backup catcher. So the Sox could wind up with a bench of Leon, Swihart, Marrero and Brentz. Holt's cost in arbitration might make him suddenly expendable, even with Pedroia out. (It's not like he was any good at 2B anyway.)

 

If that is the Sox bench, I hope they can do better than Brentz. Dealing Holt for a fourth OF isn't so likely, and certainly near-impossible to figure out a match...

[Bellhorn04]

Brock Holt could also be dealt, but he will probably be in line at 2B (a position he is horrible at. I prefer Swihart there sight unseen) or flat out non-tendered. Personally, I prefer Marrero over Holt at this point...

 

Why is Holt horrible at 2B? His career UZR/150 is +1.8, and +12.0 at SS. What numbers support that he is horrible?

[notin]

Why is Holt horrible at 2B? His career UZR/150 is +1.8, and +12.0 at SS. What numbers support that he is horrible?

 

He can field groundballs when he gets to them, but his footrk is horrendous. He never seens to know how to position himself when receivig a throw. He's weak at turning double plays. I could go on. Really, his best position is corner OF.

 

His UZR data for 2B is really less than 900 innings (about 1/2 of a season) spread out over 5 years. It compiles into a nice number, but a lot of the data gets older and is all accrued together despite not necessarily being equally relevant...

[moonslav59]

I've never been all that crazy about Brentz, and I still am not. He did have a great year at Pawtucket, but I can't get excited about the future of any player who takes 5 years to put it all together at AAA. I can't get excited about him even in a bench role. If he makes the opening day roster, will he still be there in June? His only real selling point right now is price. If an outfielder actually gets hurt, Brentz could play himself out of the majors in a month.

 

But free agency doesn't dazzle with better options. Ben Revere and Michael Saunders might both be at points where they are willing to take part time roles, but neither will settle for Brentz' money. And Saunders has been particularly unreliable from a health standpoint.

 

It is possible some sort of boring, low level trade like dealing Sandy Leon (2.8 fWAR in 2016-2017) could be dealt for a fourth outfielder like Mallex Smith (1.3 fWAR in 2016-17) or Jake Marisnick (1.3 fWAR in 2016-17). But then not sure if either Tampa or Houston value their backup outfielders more than a backup catcher0 (Both likely do in this case.) Or if they have other solutions better than Leon.

 

Brock Holt could also be dealt, but he will probably be in line at 2B (a position he is horrible at. I prefer Swihart there sight unseen) or flat out non-tendered. Personally, I prefer Marrero over Holt at this point...

 

I prefer Marrero over Holt, too, but Holt can act as the 5th OF'er. (I guess Lin could, too.)

 

I doubt we could get Marisnik for Leon, but I'd do it. I'd also trade Leon & Holt (or Brentz) for him.