A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[moonslav59]

With Cora in as manager and a new coaching staff, there won't be the same attachment to Holt that JF seemed to feel. I expect he will be gone before the season starts. Leon, on the other hand would need to replaced and I am not sure Swihart is that guy, so that remains an open question to me.

 

With the Sox question marks at this point, it would be good if at least some will be acted on by DD before we get into the new year.

 

I think if we were going to trade Holt, he'd already be gone, so we could protect one more Rule 5 player. I guess he could be traded after our first FA signing.

[moonslav59]

At this point, I'm more OK with Swihart in a bench role that Holt.

 

If Swihart does make the team, he doesn't need to be the only backup catcher, if all of these moves trying him around the field pan out. In fact, the team would probably still need a dedicated backup catcher. So the Sox could wind up with a bench of Leon, Swihart, Marrero and Brentz. Holt's cost in arbitration might make him suddenly expendable, even with Pedroia out. (It's not like he was any good at 2B anyway.)

 

If that is the Sox bench, I hope they can do better than Brentz. Dealing Holt for a fourth OF isn't so likely, and certainly near-impossible to figure out a match...

 

I like the idea of having Swihart on the bench as our 3rd catcher and corner IF'er. I'm not sure about 2B, but we'll find out quick enough, if that's doable.

 

Having a 3rd catcher allows us to PH for Vaz or Leon or both more easily.

 

Vaz

vs RHPs: .657

vs LHPs: .702

 

Leon

vs RHPs: .638

vs LHPs: .744

 

Swihart

vs RHPs: .725

vs LHPs: .673

 

(Note: Swihart doesn't have to be the player who PH's for Vaz or Leon. A better hitter could PH, and then Swihart catches.

 

[moonslav59]

He can field groundballs when he gets to them, but his footrk is horrendous. He never seens to know how to position himself when receivig a throw. He's weak at turning double plays. I could go on. Really, his best position is corner OF.

 

His UZR data for 2B is really less than 900 innings (about 1/2 of a season) spread out over 5 years. It compiles into a nice number, but a lot of the data gets older and is all accrued together despite not necessarily being equally relevant...

 

I do think 2B is Holt's best IF position.

 

I've never liked Holt's OF defense despite those short and scattered numbers that shows he's okay.

 

To me, Holt has been a "Jack of no trades". The only thing keeping him on the roster is that his OPS is close to .700 vs LHPs and RHPs, which is decent for a sub, and the fact that he can play so many positions at a level that is not really embarrassing.

 

The numbers

 

Pos inn UZR/150 (DRS)

3B 875 -11.6 (-12)

2B 869 +1.8 (+3)

LF 680 -9.5 (+6)

RF 464 +15.2 (+12)

SS 212 +12.0 (-3)

1B 129 -8.0 (-2)

CF 75.2 -33.2 (0)

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

His UZR data for 2B is really less than 900 innings (about 1/2 of a season) spread out over 5 years. It compiles into a nice number, but a lot of the data gets older and is all accrued together despite not necessarily being equally relevant...

 

I know you must have typed the bolded part in a hurry, because it's pretty much gibberish - 'a lot of the data gets older...huh?'

[moonslav59]

I know you must have typed the bolded part in a hurry, because it's pretty much gibberish - 'a lot of the data gets older...huh?'

 

Well, when a player's 850 innings at a position are spread out over 6 years (2012), then they are "older" than someone who has 850 innings over the last 2 years.

 

One could argue that Holt's defense has not gotten worse at age 29. One could even argue he should be better now.

 

I will say, I have never viewed Holt as a plus fielder at any position.

 

He should never play 3B or SS, unless it's an emergency.

 

I'd avoid CF and 1B as well.

 

He's okay at 2B, LF and RF.

 

Just my opinion.

[notin]

I think if we were going to trade Holt, he'd already be gone, so we could protect one more Rule 5 player. I guess he could be traded after our first FA signing.

 

Conversely maybe Holt hasn't been traded because no one wants to dedicate another 40-man roster spot this close to the Rule 5 draft. ..

[moonslav59]

Conversely maybe Holt hasn't been traded because no one wants to dedicate another 40-man roster spot this close to the Rule 5 draft. ..

 

True, but as they sign free agents, the need for Holt should only lessen.

[notin]

True, but as they sign free agents, the need for Holt should only lessen.

 

And I'd keep Holt over Brentz as an outfielder. But I'd prefer a better all-around outfielder than either of them on the bench...

[moonslav59]

To me, these guys probably aren't "good enough" to make the 25 man roster, but they are out of options.

 

Marrero

 

Swihart

 

Brentz

 

Hembree

 

The questions are:

 

1) Are they good enough to make some other team's 25 man roster? (If yes, then a trade is possible to those teams.)

 

2) Do we makes sure they are placed on the 25 man roster to keep system depth by keeping similar or better players in AAA until needed?

 

Assuming all players out of options make the 25 man roster, this is what it would look like (before any acquisitions):

 

I'll leave Pedey & ERod off the roster and concentrate on the opening day 25 man roster...

 

C- Vaz

1B- HRam

2B- Hernandez (Pedey after DL?)

3B- Devers

SS- Bogaerts

LF- Beni

CF- JBJ

RF- Betts

Bench- Leon, Holt, Marrero, Brentz

 

SP- Sale, Price, Pom. Porcello, Wright (Erod after DL)

RP- Kimbrel, Smith, Kelly, Barnes, Maddox, Scott, Hembree

 

Players in AAA because of Marrero, Swihart, Brentz and Hembree:

 

Lin is probably better than Holt and Marrero. When Pedey returns, Holt or Hernandez may be forced down, so we can keep Marrero.

 

Travis might be a better option than Swihart or Marrero/Holt.

 

Workman is better than Hembree, IMO. Taylor or Johnson might be better chocies as well. When Thorburg returns, Scott or Maddox might be forced to AAA to keep Hembree on the roster.

 

None of these choice are earth-shattering. If we have to trade or DFA Holt, Marrero, Swihart, Brentz or Hembree, nobody will lose any sleep, but what else is there to talk about at this point in the off season?

 

[moonslav59]

And I'd keep Holt over Brentz as an outfielder. But I'd prefer a better all-around outfielder than either of them on the bench...

 

Is there any value in keeping Holt just to see if he can build up trade value?

 

If he has a strong spring training, and some team has a serious injury, he may become more wanted than now.

[Slasher9]

i honestly do not believe there is a market for Brock Holt.

[moonslav59]

i honestly do not believe there is a market for Brock Holt.

 

There was a market for Holt 2-3 years ago. I ahve to think, if he shows he can return to that level, there might be a market for him in 2018.

 

Granted, we're not getting a really good prospect for him either way.

[notin]

i honestly do not believe there is a market for Brock Holt.

 

If there is it's a boring one...

[moonslav59]

There's little to no market for Holt now- maybe for a low A prospect with little future upside.

 

I think Holt has to show he's back to a .705 hitter or so to restore any higher trade value.

[moonslav59]

Aaron Judge Undergoes Shoulder Surgery

By Jeff Todd | November 21, 2017 at 2:23pm CDT

 

Breakout Yankees slugger Aaron Judge has undergone arthroscopic surgery on his left shoulder, according to a club announcement. Per the announcement, Judge received a “loose-body removal and cartilage clean-up.”

[Larry Cook]

To me, these guys probably aren't "good enough" to make the 25 man roster, but they are out of options.

 

Marrero

 

Swihart

 

Brentz

 

Hembree

 

 

 

 

There was a time when teams kept a good glove - no bat player on the roster.

 

There is no doubt these four and Travis can make positive contributions to our team next year.

 

The question is - are their potential contributions at their projected price worth more than better replacements at their projected price?

[moonslav59]

There was a time when teams kept a good glove - no bat player on the roster.

 

There is no doubt these four and Travis can make positive contributions to our team next year.

 

The question is - are their potential contributions at their projected price worth more than better replacements at their projected price?

 

I like Marco Hernandez more than any other IF sub.

 

I'd probably put Lin second, but I'm fine with keeping him in AAA to allow us to keep an out-of-options player.

 

I'd like to keep Swihart for one last look.

 

I'd keep Marrero over Holt, but I can see why we may want to avoid shortening our depth, at least until Pedey is back.

 

I think Hembree is good enough to keep on the 25 man roster. Someone is bound to get hurt and allow Workman or someone else to be called up.

[moonslav59]

If we go with a 4 man bench and keep Leon, and go with Marco as the starting 2Bman, then Brentz and Marrero would squeeze Holt, Lin & Travis to AAA.

[Larry Cook]

If we go with a 4 man bench and keep Leon, and go with Marco as the starting 2Bman, then Brentz and Marrero would squeeze Holt, Lin & Travis to AAA.

 

With pedroia starting the year on the dl, that would allow a spot for holt provided we do not sign a guy like Nunez.

 

But why all the love for Hernandez? The guy has not played in over a year.

[moonslav59]

With pedroia starting the year on the dl, that would allow a spot for holt provided we do not sign a guy like Nunez.

 

But why all the love for Hernandez? The guy has not played in over a year.

 

Hernandez is better than Holt, when healthy. They actually went with him first this year, so I'm not the only one high on Hernandez. He played in 21 of our first 27 games this year. Then he got hurt. Yes, he played this year.

 

(He had a .752 OPS in AAA.)

[cp176]

I like Marco Hernandez more than any other IF sub.

 

I'd probably put Lin second, but I'm fine with keeping him in AAA to allow us to keep an out-of-options player.

 

I'd like to keep Swihart for one last look.

 

I'd keep Marrero over Holt, but I can see why we may want to avoid shortening our depth, at least until Pedey is back.

 

I think Hembree is good enough to keep on the 25 man roster. Someone is bound to get hurt and allow Workman or someone else to be called up.

 

Agree - When playing, Hernandez showed clearly that he had more to offer than any of the possible substitutes for Pedroia at second. The Red Sox had already made a commitment to him. There is no reason to think that if he is healthy going in to the spring that he will be ahead of all of these guys. I would include Holt in that group.

[oldtimer]

Agree - When playing, Hernandez showed clearly that he had more to offer than any of the possible substitutes for Pedroia at second. The Red Sox had already made a commitment to him. There is no reason to think that if he is healthy going in to the spring that he will be ahead of all of these guys. I would include Holt in that group.

 

What Hernandez hasn't shown is any real power, even though he is a strong looking young man. I have always liked him as a player, but don't expect HR's although he may make contact more often than some of the other possibilities.

[Carpin]

Aaron Judge Undergoes Shoulder Surgery

By Jeff Todd | November 21, 2017 at 2:23pm CDT

 

Breakout Yankees slugger Aaron Judge has undergone arthroscopic surgery on his left shoulder, according to a club announcement. Per the announcement, Judge received a “loose-body removal and cartilage clean-up.”

 

Let's hope it doesn't have any long term effects

[moonslav59]

Agree - When playing, Hernandez showed clearly that he had more to offer than any of the possible substitutes for Pedroia at second. The Red Sox had already made a commitment to him. There is no reason to think that if he is healthy going in to the spring that he will be ahead of all of these guys. I would include Holt in that group.

 

Did you mean there's no reason he WON'T be ahead of the others?

 

Those double negative get confusing.

[moonslav59]

What Hernandez hasn't shown is any real power, even though he is a strong looking young man. I have always liked him as a player, but don't expect HR's although he may make contact more often than some of the other possibilities.

 

I think he's a better defender than Holt, so if his bat projects better, to me, it's his job to lose.

 

I do think Holt, Marrero and Lin may do so well in spring training, while Marco struggles from returning from injury that Marco starts in AAA.

 

It's not a slam dunk.

[oldtimer]

I think he's a better defender than Holt, so if his bat projects better, to me, it's his job to lose.

 

I do think Holt, Marrero and Lin may do so well in spring training, while Marco struggles from returning from injury that Marco starts in AAA.

 

It's not a slam dunk.

 

I have been a fan of Lin as well as Hernandez. I like Lin's speed and defense. In addition, his plate approach and swing look good. Again, the missing element is power. Lin is lacking in that regard and probably will never be able to improve that aspect given his diminutive size.

[S5Dewey]

I have been a fan of Lin as well as Hernandez. I like Lin's speed and defense. In addition, his plate approach and swing look good. Again, the missing element is power. Lin is lacking in that regard and probably will never be able to improve that aspect given his diminutive size.

 

Nice post. It expresses my feelings toward Lin perfectly. I see him as someone who can come off the bench and not hurt the team defensively as well as being respectable at the plate. However, he's not the solution as a starter, even for half a year.

[S5Dewey]

I think he's a better defender than Holt, so if his bat projects better, to me, it's his job to lose.

 

I do think Holt, Marrero and Lin may do so well in spring training, while Marco struggles from returning from injury that Marco starts in AAA.

 

It's not a slam dunk.

 

What injury are we talking about here? The shoulder from last May? Is that still an issue?

[Kimmi]

We can add someone else to the mix of potential 2B to fill in for Pedroia. I know nothing about this guy besides what's written here but his numbers look pretty good. He also plays shortstop and 3B, and has played in the outfield.

 

Boston Red Sox free agency: Esteban Quiroz, an infielder from Mexico, signs with Boston

Updated 11:22 AM; Posted 10:53 AM

 

 

By Christopher Smith

 

The Red Sox have signed Mexican infielder Esteban Quiroz to a minor league deal. Team Mexico tweeted the news of his signing.

 

The 25-year-old left-handed hitter posted a .293 batting average with a .428 on-base percentage, .488 slugging percentage, .916 OPS, 11 homers, 23 doubles and 49 RBIs in 89 games during 2017 for Leones de Yucatan of the Mexican League.

 

The 5-foot-7, 175-pounder posted a .335/.449/.522/.972 line with 15 homers, 18 doubles and 63 RBIs in 97 games during 2016 for Tigres de Quintana Roo.

 

He has played second base, shortstop and third base. He also played center, right and left field earlier in his career. He hasn't played the outfield since 2015.

 

He is not part of Boston's amateur international bonus pool spending because he's 25 and he's played seven professional seasons in Mexico (requirement is minimum six seasons). So the Red Sox still have approximately $462,000 to offer Shohei Ohtani.

 

Dustin Pedroia (knee surgery) is expected to miss the first month and then at least some of May. Quiroz will head into spring training on a minor league deal but he'll compete with several others, including Marco Hernandez, Brock Holt, Deven Marrero, Tzu-Wei Lin and even potentially Blake Swihart, for the second base job.

[moonslav59]

What injury are we talking about here? The shoulder from last May? Is that still an issue?

 

I was responding to a poster who claimed Marco has not played in over a year, when in reality, he was management's first choice off the bench this season: first to cover for Bogey and then to cover for Pablo. He played in 21 of our first 27 games.

 

He ended up having his non-throwing shoulder operated on in late May. He missed the rest of 2017. I do not think it will be an issue next year, and I've heard he is expected to be the odds on favorite to start at 2B next year until Pedey comes back.