A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[moonslav59]

No one is fascinated wIth Johnson, but he is likely to make the team and pitch out of the bullpen he is left - handed and had no options left.

 

If any of these "bubble players" who are out of options deserves a chance, I think it is Johnson. I like Swihart's chances at making the 25 man roster, and I think Marrero's days are numbers. I guess, if Marco and Pedey are on the DL, he may hang on until the first one returns.

[Emp9]

I’m pullin’ for Swihart. His overall athleticism and offensive potential has always stuck in the back of my mind. That ankle injury really caused a lot career turmoil & I’d hate to not give him as many chances as possible to make the team. On principle, I’d rather Swihart our super-utility over say, Holt... because he can play Catcher position, but he’s gotta earn it (again) & I really hope he does.

[mvp 78]

I'd keep Swihart and dump Leon if Swihart looks good in ST.

[moonslav59]

I'd keep Swihart and dump Leon if Swihart looks good in ST.

 

I'd try to keep both.

 

Leon gets the best out of our staff, and having 3 catchers (one who can play elsewhere) allows us to PH for our catchers more often.

[mvp 78]

I'd try to keep both.

 

Leon gets the best out of our staff, and having 3 catchers (one who can play elsewhere) allows us to PH for our catchers more often.

 

If they didn't sign Nunez, they could probably fit Swihart on the bench. Once Pedey comes back, Leon probably needs to go if they want to keep Swihart. There is just only so many bodies you can have on a roster.

[Kimmi]

I'd keep Swihart and dump Leon if Swihart looks good in ST.

 

I wouldn't be so quick to dump Leon based on how Swihart looks in spring training. I like the idea of having 3 catchers on the roster, where one of them can play multiple positions. Like many others, I'm pulling for Swihart. But I'm not dumping Leon any time soon.

[cp176]

I have full confidence in saying that if Swihart gets through the spring healthy, he will make this team. I really hope that they don't wind up trading him.

[Kimmi]

I have full confidence in saying that if Swihart gets through the spring healthy, he will make this team. I really hope that they don't wind up trading him.

 

I think he makes the team too. At least until the Sox can get a better read on how well he's going to play.

[notin]

If they didn't sign Nunez, they could probably fit Swihart on the bench. Once Pedey comes back, Leon probably needs to go if they want to keep Swihart. There is just only so many bodies you can have on a roster.

 

Or Holt, whose skill set became less unique when they sigNed Nunez. ....

[moonslav59]

If they didn't sign Nunez, they could probably fit Swihart on the bench. Once Pedey comes back, Leon probably needs to go if they want to keep Swihart. There is just only so many bodies you can have on a roster.

 

That's assuming nobody else gets hurt, but if that happens after Pedey returns, our 4 man bench could be....

 

Leon C

Swihart C, 1B, LF

Nunez 2B, 3B, LF, SS, RF

Moreland 1B, LF

 

Holt in AAA

 

Marrero traded or DFA'd when Pedey returns.

[moonslav59]

I wouldn't be so quick to dump Leon based on how Swihart looks in spring training. I like the idea of having 3 catchers on the roster, where one of them can play multiple positions. Like many others, I'm pulling for Swihart. But I'm not dumping Leon any time soon.

 

Me neither.

 

OPS against by pitcher-catcher

RED= better OPS Against with 60+ PAs with both catchers (7 to 1 Leon)

with Leon/ with Vaz

Sale .585 (824 PAs) 1.138 (27)

Porcello .824 (709) / .832 (176)

Fister .666 (255) / .845 (137)

Hembree .609 (133) / 1.012 (135)

M Barnes .592 (110) / .707 (174)

Joe Kelly .546 (98) / .648 (127)

CKimbrel .406 (97) / 472 (153)

BJohnson .741 (96) / 1.127 (25)

S. Wright 1.223 (87) / .912 (27)

B. Boyer .834 (76) / .802 (98)

R Scott .476 (67) / .832 (74)

Fer Abad .851 (57) / .593 (125)

Workman .818 (62) / .716 (94)

 

with Vaz

Pomeranz .697 (721) /1.297 (19) Tiny sample size

Rodriguez .740 (579) / .000 (3) Teenie tiny

Da. Price .666 (311) /.000 (6) Teenie tiny

 

 

 

Edited February 27, 2018 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

That's assuming nobody else gets hurt, but if that happens after Pedey returns, our 4 man bench could be....

 

Leon C

Swihart C, 1B, LF

Nunez 2B, 3B, LF, SS, RF

Moreland 1B, LF

 

Holt in AAA

 

Marrero traded or DFA'd when Pedey returns.

 

I just think a bench of Swihart, Marrero, Nunez, Moreland is stronger. Marrero is the only decent option as a defensive replacement in the IF.

[moonslav59]

I just think a bench of Swihart, Marrero, Nunez, Moreland is stronger. Marrero is the only decent option as a defensive replacement in the IF.

 

We do have an issue with IF depth, until Pedey returns, but my list was after Pedey returned. Nunez is the IF back-up, and we want to get him as many PAs as possible, so marrero would only act as a late inning defensive replacement for Nunez or maybe Pedey/Devers/Bogey.

 

Assuming Nunez starts at 2B until Pedey returns, our bench can be Leon, Swihart, Moreland, Marrero with Holt at AAA. n(We could trade or DFA marrero and have Holt on the 25 man roster, if he seems to be over the concussions.)

[moonslav59]

I just think a bench of Swihart, Marrero, Nunez, Moreland is stronger. Marrero is the only decent option as a defensive replacement in the IF.

 

...and if the staff, all of a sudden, has a jump in OPS against of 50-100 points, you won't blame it on swapping our Swihart for Leon in 40-60 games?

Edited February 27, 2018 by moonslav59

[sk7326]

...and if the staff, all of a sudden, has a jump in OPS against of 50-100 points, you won't blame it on swapping our Swihart for Leon in 40-60 games?

 

Blame it on the coaching staff for not midwifing the process. Ultimately the question is more about whether Vazquez is ready to take the wheel from the jump. That said, Swihart probably can play the corners adequately enough to not be able to stick without supplanting Leon.

[cp176]

Blame it on the coaching staff for not midwifing the process. Ultimately the question is more about whether Vazquez is ready to take the wheel from the jump. That said, Swihart probably can play the corners adequately enough to not be able to stick without supplanting Leon.

 

midwifing the process?

Has Swihart ever played third or for that matter first? If he continues to hit, Coach Cora is going to have to find a creative way of getting him some at bats for sure.

[notin]

midwifing the process?

Has Swihart ever played third or for that matter first? If he continues to hit, Coach Cora is going to have to find a creative way of getting him some at bats for sure.

 

He was playing first in the Arizona Fall League this past winter and for 8 games at Pawtucket last year. Not sure about his experience at third...

[sk7326]

midwifing the process?

Has Swihart ever played third or for that matter first? If he continues to hit, Coach Cora is going to have to find a creative way of getting him some at bats for sure.

 

He played 2B in high school - he was drafted because he was a terrific athlete. Now he has had some injuries which raise questions about whether any of that was sapped (I just don't know). But I do think the Sox will have no issue having him take some balls at 3B (or even 2B) during infield practice in case it comes up.

[moonslav59]

We start the season with Leon, Swihart, Moreland and Marrero on the bench. Holt starts in AAA and carries a cell phone with him every minute-waiting for a call up.

 

When Pedey comes back, a decision needs to be made on Marrero. We'll have Nunez as a back-up and Holt still holding a phone. Lin & Quiroz are also options. I think Marrero goes, when Pedey returns. Until then, I don't see any issues, unless Holt is already penciled in on the 25.

[mvp 78]

...and if the staff, all of a sudden, has a jump in OPS against of 50-100 points, you won't blame it on swapping our Swihart for Leon in 40-60 games?

 

If Sandy can get a 4.00 ERA out of a guy, Vaz should be able to over a similar period. Aside from framing, what other skill does the catcher need to have? Vaz and Sandy should be calling the same game.

[moonslav59]

If Sandy can get a 4.00 ERA out of a guy, Vaz should be able to over a similar period. Aside from framing, what other skill does the catcher need to have? Vaz and Sandy should be calling the same game.

 

So, you're betting on Vaz getting that much better, when he's already had about the same PAs with each pitcher on this staff as Leon and has done much worse with 5 of the 8 guys both catch often and worse with 7 of 8. The one guy Vaz did better with was Boyer, and he's not even here. He did do pretty close with Porcello, so we could give him Rick and let him keep Pom and Price.

 

The real comp is Swihart vs Leon. I would shudder to give Swihart Sale & ERod full time.

Edited February 27, 2018 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

So, you're betting on Vaz getting that much better, when he's already had about the same PAs with each pitcher on this staff as Leon and has done much worse with 5 of the 8 guys both catch often and worse with 7 of 8. The one guy Vaz did better with was Boyer, and he's not even here. He did do pretty close with Porcello, so we could give him Rick and let him keep Pom and Price.

 

The real comp is Swihart vs Leon. I would shudder to give Swihart Sale & ERod full time.

 

No, I'm betting that if Vaz is as good as we think he is, the noise of the sample size will clear up after a while. If Leon really is THAT much better than Vaz, just trade Vaz.

[cp176]

No, I'm betting that if Vaz is as good as we think he is, the noise of the sample size will clear up after a while. If Leon really is THAT much better than Vaz, just trade Vaz.

 

That to me anyway is an excellent point that most people would never want to see happen. I like Leon and in a perfect world which we don't happen to reside in we would be able to keep them both. If that old phantom injury list doesn't strike, then somebody will just have to go. I don't think that the Sox are going to be in hurry to simply release anyone. Why should they be. Once again if Swihart is healthy he is going to stay. I also am not counting on a near split of the catching position this year.

Edited February 27, 2018 by cp176

[moonslav59]

No, I'm betting that if Vaz is as good as we think he is, the noise of the sample size will clear up after a while. If Leon really is THAT much better than Vaz, just trade Vaz.

 

That's an option, and he has the most value in trade.

 

Vaz should improve, but I'm not trading or DFA'ing Leon, until I see it happen.

 

I'm just not getting why you dislike a catcher who continuously gets the best out of the staff-- not just 2017.

 

Is Holt really that fantastic?

[moonslav59]

Starter OPS against by catcher in 2016:

 

Pitcher w Leon/ w Vaz

Price .681 / .745

Porc .588 / .694

ERod .747 / .693

Buch .675 / .812

Wright .842 / .684

 

[moonslav59]

Pitcher w Leon/ w Swi

 

Miley .738/.756

Porc .934/.766

ERod .377/.662

Wrght .368/.719

 

Buch .627/ n/a

RHill .410/ na

[notin]

I know its only for a month or two, but I'm still not liking the options of Velasquez and Johnson as the fifth starter.

 

Especially if another pitcher goes down before Rodriguez comes back.

[Kimmi]

Me neither.

 

OPS against by pitcher-catcher

RED= better OPS Against with 60+ PAs with both catchers (7 to 1 Leon)

with Leon/ with Vaz

Sale .585 (824 PAs) 1.138 (27)

Porcello .824 (709) / .832 (176)

Fister .666 (255) / .845 (137)

Hembree .609 (133) / 1.012 (135)

M Barnes .592 (110) / .707 (174)

Joe Kelly .546 (98) / .648 (127)

CKimbrel .406 (97) / 472 (153)

BJohnson .741 (96) / 1.127 (25)

S. Wright 1.223 (87) / .912 (27)

B. Boyer .834 (76) / .802 (98)

R Scott .476 (67) / .832 (74)

Fer Abad .851 (57) / .593 (125)

Workman .818 (62) / .716 (94)

 

with Vaz

Pomeranz .697 (721) /1.297 (19) Tiny sample size

Rodriguez .740 (579) / .000 (3) Teenie tiny

Da. Price .666 (311) /.000 (6) Teenie tiny

 

 

I'm with you Moon. Mark me down as a Leon fan.

[Kimmi]

I know its only for a month or two, but I'm still not liking the options of Velasquez and Johnson as the fifth starter.

 

Especially if another pitcher goes down before Rodriguez comes back.

 

Dombrowski needs to go dumpster diving.

[moonslav59]

Dombrowski needs to go dumpster diving.

 

Who are some half-way decent journeymen vets still left looking for a minor league deal?