A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[moonslav59]

At the start of last year, I felt the pen was our weakest (not weak) link. JF managed the pen very well. We squeezed the best from some guys I had little hope in before the season started. With injuries to Smith, Thornburg, Ross and Workman, we ended up doing very well (4th best pen WAR). Remember, Ross has the 3rd most Sox RP'er IP from 2014-2016 and the 5th best pen WAR on the team.

 

The 2018 pen looks like it might be much better, especially if those who seemingly over performed last year can keep it up this year. Assuming good health and taking the optimistic view via some cherry-picking, here's how our pen could look:

 

Closer: Kimbrel has been one of baseball's best closers in MLB over a long period of time and arguably was the best last year.

 

RP2: Carson Smith had a 0.91 WHIP from 2014-2015 (15th best out of 165). He had the 15th best K/9 rate at 11.8. His ERA- was 54. Yes, it was just 78 IP, but that's not a tiny sample size.

 

RP3: Tyler Thornburg does not have a great history, but his 2016 season was pretty damn awesome. He had the 11th best RP'er WAR (2.0), 12th best WHIP (0.94), 7th best K/9 (12.1) and an ERA- of 56.

 

Joe Kelly gets pushed from 2 to 4.

 

Matt Barnes gets pushed from 3 to 5.

 

Workman returns. Hembree may continue to improve. Maddox could repeat 2017 but over a longer time. Scott looked pretty good.

 

I'm much more optimistic about this pen than I was this time last year.

 

 

[moonslav59]

I never worry about cash flow for player payroll. It's all about AVV for me,

 

That's all I go by, too, and the AVV payroll is $216M not $230M.

 

The tax number is $230 counting the player benefit payment, and that is what we get taxed on.

 

That's the number that counts, but it's not our "AVV payroll". I'm not trying to be a semantic prick here. I'm just trying to make things clearer.

[moonslav59]

Can I just say....

 

I'm so freakin' glad we did not sign Hosmer!

[OH FOY]

Freakin glad we didn't sign Moustakas too. Edited February 22, 2018 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

Freakin glad we didn't sign Moustakas too.

 

I wonder what he will get. If it's not much more than Moreland, I'd think twice about saying that.

[Nick]

I love the JD Martinez deal. If he has two great years, then he'll opt out of his contract. And if he does have two great years, we should be winning. When he opts out in two years, Sale becomes FA. If he waits another year to opt out, Betts becomes a FA. I seriously doubt he will finish out his contract as a Red Sox, unless we extend him with big money and longer years during his third year. Both sides are in a win win situation. Loading up early on his contract makes lot of sense.

 

After three years, hopefully someone like Chavis will be ready to lend his power bat to our lineup.

[Nick]

Per Over the Monster

 

At this point, with Thornburg still throwing off flat ground and having no basis on which to base expectations for the now-29-year-old, the safe course of action is to expect little from Thornburg. The righty has the talent to be a legitimate back-of-the-bullpen arm, and he’s proven that at the major-league level. We just don’t know if he’ll get that stuff back. The Red Sox are going to work with him to get it back, of course, and they’d be wise to take their time and value the quality of his stuff when he returns over the percentage of the season in which he can pitch. If Thornburg does get his stuff back for 2018, though, it is the biggest potential boost we could see for this Red Sox roster.

[moonslav59]

I was really hoping Thornburg would give us something, but I agree that it probably best to expect nothing and hope to be pleasantly surprised.

 

Even if it takes him until August, that could be the big push we need.

 

I seriously doubt he'll be the "biggest boost". I'd put JDM first, Carson Smith second and a full year from Devers third.

[notin]

Maybe he meant 5th best in the Sox system.

 

If so, I misinterpreted his "in the minors" verbiage. I can see ranking Brannen that way, but no way is he one year away..

[notin]

I was really hoping Thornburg would give us something, but I agree that it probably best to expect nothing and hope to be pleasantly surprised.

 

Even if it takes him until August, that could be the big push we need.

 

I seriously doubt he'll be the "biggest boost". I'd put JDM first, Carson Smith second and a full year from Devers third.

 

I still wouldn't mind an arm to replace Thornburg. Free agency doesn't leave much outside of Greg Holland, who is looking for some serious bank....

[moonslav59]

If so, I misinterpreted his "in the minors" verbiage. I can see ranking Brannen that way, but no way is he one year away..

 

Even 2 years is a stretch.

[Natick to NC]

Thornburg is just fine ...he's on a different protocol right now ...he will be throwing off the mound in 5 days maybe 20 30 pitches following week 40 to 50 and he's good to go ...I'm excited about Tyler his slot at first will be 3 or 4 in my opinion and ramp his game up by early May he will step right into the three spot for keeps .

Craig

Smith

Thorny

Barnes

Kelly is the start of something great if they do there job .....hell we could see Kelly finally become the player we think we glimpse from time to time if so ?....this cats your number 2 .

[moonslav59]

Thornburg is just fine ...he's on a different protocol right now ...he will be throwing off the mound in 5 days maybe 20 30 pitches following week 40 to 50 and he's good to go ...I'm excited about Tyler his slot at first will be 3 or 4 in my opinion and ramp his game up by early May he will step right into the three spot for keeps .

Craig

Smith

Thorny

Barnes

Kelly is the start of something great if they do there job .....hell we could see Kelly finally become the player we think we glimpse from time to time if so ?....this cats your number 2 .

 

Nobody can proclaim Thornburg "is just fine" or is "toast".

 

He's had a serious injury that some never recover from.

 

I'm hopeful, but I'm expecting to see little for at least the first 2 months or so.

 

I wonder, if he ends up on the 60 day DL. I expect Pedey to as well, and maybe ERod.

[cp176]

Per Over the Monster

 

At this point, with Thornburg still throwing off flat ground and having no basis on which to base expectations for the now-29-year-old, the safe course of action is to expect little from Thornburg. The righty has the talent to be a legitimate back-of-the-bullpen arm, and he’s proven that at the major-league level. We just don’t know if he’ll get that stuff back. The Red Sox are going to work with him to get it back, of course, and they’d be wise to take their time and value the quality of his stuff when he returns over the percentage of the season in which he can pitch. If Thornburg does get his stuff back for 2018, though, it is the biggest potential boost we could see for this Red Sox roster.

 

I see it a little differently.

 

David Price - if healthy could be the biggest difference maker, followed by Martinez.

[moonslav59]

I see it a little differently.

 

David Price - if healthy could be the biggest difference maker, followed by Martinez.

 

...and then maybe Smith and Devers (full year)

[cp176]

...and then maybe Smith and Devers (full year)

 

That could be true. I think that they need good years for sure from these guys. Pretty obvious what Smith could bring to the bullpen and how much he might help. I think that Devers will hit and I really hope that he fields the position well.

Ramirez at first

Nunez at Second

Devers at third

Bogaerts at short

That doesn't scream good infield defense to me. I think that Devers' progression as an infielder is very important.

[moonslav59]

That could be true. I think that they need good years for sure from these guys. Pretty obvious what Smith could bring to the bullpen and how much he might help. I think that Devers will hit and I really hope that he fields the position well.

Ramirez at first

Nunez at Second

Devers at third

Bogaerts at short

That doesn't scream good infield defense to me. I think that Devers' progression as an infielder is very important.

 

To me, it actually screams "Poor defense!"

 

With Moreland at 1B and a healthy Pedey at 2B, it's getting closer to average but still not quite there.

[cp176]

To me, it actually screams "Poor defense!"

 

With Moreland at 1B and a healthy Pedey at 2B, it's getting closer to average but still not quite there.

 

I was just trying to be nice. Kind of leads me in to the discussion of who should be left out when the team heads north. I would kind of like to see them add a good glove. You probably know where I am headed with this.

[moonslav59]

It's nice to have so many areas where we can vastly improve without it being all that surprising. Of course, the potential is there for several not happening, but for a team that finished in first place and still having so much room to get better, I'm liking our chances.

 

(Not listed in any particular order)

 

1. Price from 11 starts to 31.

 

2. Smith from 7 IP to maybe 57.

 

3. Thornburg from 0 IP to 30+.

 

4. Devers from 240 PAs to maybe 540 or 640.

 

5. Workman from 40 IP to 70 or 80.

 

6. Maddox from 17 IP to maybe over 37.

 

7. Wright from 5 GS'd to maybe 25.

 

8. Improvements from our killer Bs (Bogey .746 to >800+?, JBJ from .726 to .780+? and Betts from .803 to .875+?)

 

9. A big year from Beni? (.776 to .850+?)

 

10. A healthy and productive season from HRam (.750 to .800+?)

[Bellhorn04]

It's nice to have so many areas where we can vastly improve without it being all that surprising. Of course, the potential is there for several not happening, but for a team that finished in first place and still having so much room to get better, I'm liking our chances.

 

(Not listed in any particular order)

 

1. Price from 11 starts to 31.

 

2. Smith from 7 IP to maybe 57.

 

3. Thornburg from 0 IP to 30+.

 

4. Devers from 240 PAs to maybe 540 or 640.

 

5. Workman from 40 IP to 70 or 80.

 

6. Maddox from 17 IP to maybe over 37.

 

7. Wright from 5 GS'd to maybe 25.

 

8. Improvements from our killer Bs (Bogey .746 to >800+?, JBJ from .726 to .780+? and Betts from .803 to .875+?)

 

9. A big year from Beni? (.776 to .850+?)

 

10. A healthy and productive season from HRam (.750 to .800+?)

 

Unfortunately, unexpected s***** things happen too.

[cp176]

Unfortunately, unexpected s***** things happen too.

 

But we are making a bee-line toward spring and you know what they say about hope and the spring.

[moonslav59]

Unfortunately, unexpected s***** things happen too.

 

Yes, some of these things will not happen as hoped, and some unexpected bad things will happen, but I think more can go right than wrong.

 

We had so many declines last year that I'm thinking there's only one way to go for many players this year: up.

 

 

Hope springs eternal!

 

[mvp 78]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/al-east-notes-hernandez-swihart-dickerson-orioles.html

 

Marco Hernandez had a set back and will miss all of ST.

 

Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston argues that while the Red Sox could benefit from a year of carrying the out-of-options Blake Swihart as a utility player, they may not ever get a higher return for him in a trade than they would this spring. Other clubs still view Swihart as a viable catching option, he notes, whereas a year of scarce opportunities behind the plate thanks to the presence of Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon could change that. The Sox seem to have three players for two bench spots — Brock Holt, Deven Marrero and Swihart, with the latter each being out of minor league options. On the flip side of the coin, one could also argue that a full year of production at the big league level, even in a part-time role. It also seems feasible that Sandy Leon could see his role diminish if his 2017 struggles at the plate carry over into the 2018 season.

[OH FOY]

Just looked at Photo of Hanley, thought he lost weight? Don't look like it to me, looks bigger. Edited February 23, 2018 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

 

Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston argues that while the Red Sox could benefit from a year of carrying the out-of-options Blake Swihart as a utility player, they may not ever get a higher return for him in a trade than they would this spring. Other clubs still view Swihart as a viable catching option, he notes, whereas a year of scarce opportunities behind the plate thanks to the presence of Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon could change that. The Sox seem to have three players for two bench spots — Brock Holt, Deven Marrero and Swihart, with the latter each being out of minor league options. On the flip side of the coin, one could also argue that a full year of production at the big league level, even in a part-time role. It also seems feasible that Sandy Leon could see his role diminish if his 2017 struggles at the plate carry over into the 2018 season.

 

Hopefully, Swihart has a nice spring with some time behind the plate.

 

I think trading him makes some sense, but I'm still holding out hope on his promise from years ago.

[cp176]

Hopefully, Swihart has a nice spring with some time behind the plate.

 

I think trading him makes some sense, but I'm still holding out hope on his promise from years ago.

 

I think Swihaart will play himself on to the team. Not much trade value right now - out of options. That will force the hand of management and I am happy because I still think he has a ton of potential. Hernandez might even be done done - makes me sad. I think that it comes right down Holt and Marrero. I'm not sure that it makes much difference.

[Bellhorn04]

OK that's enough about Swihart's trade value...we don't want one of harmony's posts about how little trade value he has, complete with fWAR numbers and links...

[cp176]

OK that's enough about Swihart's trade value...we don't want one of harmony's posts about how little trade value he has, complete with fWAR numbers and links...

 

whoops sorry - also don't want anyone to think that I am on Harmony's page

[mvp 78]

Hopefully, Swihart has a nice spring with some time behind the plate.

 

I think trading him makes some sense, but I'm still holding out hope on his promise from years ago.

 

If Vazquez is fully healthy, I think it'd be safe to DFA Leon. I'd take Swihart's upside forever and ever.

[mvp 78]

OK that's enough about Swihart's trade value...we don't want one of harmony's posts about how little trade value he has, complete with fWAR numbers and links...

 

But I'm sure that Swihart would much rather live in the Pacific Northwest rather than stinky old expensive New England!