A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[moonslav59]

I was wrong about Cano’s age and edited my post to reflect that.

 

Then, how much would anyone have to pay to get Pedey out of Boston?

 

(Much more than $14M x 8! Hence my "underpaid" comment.)

[notin]

And all I’ve said is that when the ink dried on Pedey’s contract, it was not under market. Cano’s contract came later.

 

And I said the market didn't go up over $10mill per year in 5 months.

 

If Pedroia went to free agency that off-season, he easily would have gotten $18-20mill per year. He signed for $13.75mill. That puts him below market value...

[notin]

FWAR isn’t the end all be all. Cano’s offense is more financially valuable than Pedroia’s much better defense.

 

Really? I know you know better than that.

 

Just admit you underestimated the guy and move on. Pedroia is very, very far from being a problem contract for a team that is still paying Pablo Sandoval, Rusney Castillo, and Allen Craig....

[Nick]

Really? I know you know better than that.

 

Just admit you underestimated the guy and move on. Pedroia is very, very far from being a problem contract for a team that is still paying Pablo Sandoval, Rusney Castillo, and Allen Craig....

 

THAT makes me fell better. Contract isn't as bad as........

[Kimmi]

FWAR isn’t the end all be all. Cano’s offense is more financially valuable than Pedroia’s much better defense.

 

More financially valuable?

 

Sorry, but I'm not buying that. More appealing? Yes, I can see that though I don't agree with it, but not more financially valuable.

[jacksonianmarch]

I have said before and I’ll say again, Pedroia’s contract was a steal. He signed for less than half the guarantee Cano got. Pedroia valued years over AAV and valued stability in Boston over seeking paydays elsewhere. Yes, the back end of the deal is looking dicey, but he’s been worth every penny of the contract already and anything he gives beyond now is gravy. He’d have gotten near $20 mil per annum if he signed as a FA.

[moonslav59]

I have said before and I’ll say again, Pedroia’s contract was a steal. He signed for less than half the guarantee Cano got. Pedroia valued years over AAV and valued stability in Boston over seeking paydays elsewhere. Yes, the back end of the deal is looking dicey, but he’s been worth every penny of the contract already and anything he gives beyond now is gravy. He’d have gotten near $20 mil per annum if he signed as a FA.

 

Yes, and the back end of Cano's deal will likely be "dicey" as well.

 

Last 3 years with the Yanks (fWAR):

5.1

7.6

5.2

4 years with Seattle:

5.2

2.1

5.9

3.2

 

You can already see a drop-off.

[mvp 78]

Then, how much would anyone have to pay to get Pedey out of Boston?

 

(Much more than $14M x 8! Hence my "underpaid" comment.)

 

There is no way to know that. Maybe Pedey would prefer to be on the West Coast closer to his family?

[mvp 78]

More financially valuable?

 

Sorry, but I'm not buying that. More appealing? Yes, I can see that though I don't agree with it, but not more financially valuable.

 

Valuable to a player, not to the team. Player's with high offensive output typically get paid more.

[mvp 78]

Really? I know you know better than that.

 

Just admit you underestimated the guy and move on. Pedroia is very, very far from being a problem contract for a team that is still paying Pablo Sandoval, Rusney Castillo, and Allen Craig....

 

I didn't underestimate anyone. At the time he was signed, Pedroia was comparable enough to Kinsler and got more money. It's not a below market value deal at the time it was signed.

 

It also has nothing to do with Craig, Pablo or the overall value he has provided to the club since.

[Bellhorn04]

Valuable to a player, not to the team. Player's with high offensive output typically get paid more.

 

Says who? See Jason Heyward, David Ortiz, Edwin Encarnacion etc.

[mvp 78]

Says who? See Jason Heyward, David Ortiz, Edwin Encarnacion etc.

 

The expectation was that Jason Heyward would still be able to hit after signing his deal. He was a 22 OWAR guy when he played with the Cardinals. Heyward wasn't paid all that money for his glove.

 

Ortiz was paid VERY well for the time he was here.

[Bellhorn04]

The expectation was that Jason Heyward would still be able to hit after signing his deal. He was a 22 OWAR guy when he played with the Cardinals. Heyward wasn't paid all that money for his glove.

 

Ortiz was paid VERY well for the time he was here.

 

That's it - Ortiz was paid VERY well? Okay, I guess that settles that!

 

Your statement was: "Player's with high offensive output typically get paid more."

 

Is there any data to back this up, or did you just pull it out of the air?

[moonslav59]

The expectation was that Jason Heyward would still be able to hit after signing his deal. He was a 22 OWAR guy when he played with the Cardinals. Heyward wasn't paid all that money for his glove.

 

Ortiz was paid VERY well for the time he was here.

 

That .797 OPS with STL was the best he had in 3 years. In those 3 years, he never had more than 14 HRs, 60 RBIs or a SLG% abobe .440.

 

JBJ has done better than that. Is he known for his bat?

[mvp 78]

OWAR

 

Heyward

2010: 27

2011: 0

2012: 25.7

2013: 9.3

2014: 10.3

2015: 22

signs contract and loses his swing

2016: -19.2

2017: -8.4

 

JBJ

2013: -4.2

2014: -24.4

2015: 6.6 (the year he had the monster 2nd half and hit like Hank Aaron)

2016: 20.0 (I think most of us thought JBJ had a great offensive season this year)

2017: -1.8

 

Heyward

2013: 14/67/.427

2014: 11/74/.384

2015: 13/79/.439

 

Prior to his new contract, Heyward was a guy that was a 10 - 20 OWAR player year in and year out. He strugged in 2011 when he was 22. JBJ was still in AA when he was 22. JBJ didn't have a positive OWAR season until he was 25. By the time Heyward was 25, he was already averaging a 14.46 OWAR per season over the previous 5 years. If JBJ was 2016 JBJ year in and year out, yes he'd be known for his bat. For their careers, JBJ has a -3.9 OWAR and Heyward has a 66.7 OWAR.

 

No, JBJ has not "done better than that." It's not even close.

[mvp 78]

That's it - Ortiz was paid VERY well? Okay, I guess that settles that!

 

Your statement was: "Player's with high offensive output typically get paid more."

 

Is there any data to back this up, or did you just pull it out of the air?

 

Chris Davis: 7/161 (15.1 WAR before new deal 11-15)

Brandon Belt: 5/72 (11.6 WAR before new deal 11-15 and 2 years younger)

 

Since then, Davis has had 3 WAR and Belt has had 6.6 WAR. The O's were paying a premium for Davis' long ball.

[Bellhorn04]

Chris Davis: 7/161 (15.1 WAR before new deal 11-15)

Brandon Belt: 5/72 (11.6 WAR before new deal 11-15 and 2 years younger)

 

Since then, Davis has had 3 WAR and Belt has had 6.6 WAR. The O's were paying a premium for Davis' long ball.

 

That's cherry-pickin' though. What about Encarnacion - how does he fit into your model?

[mvp 78]

That's cherry-pickin' though. What about Encarnacion - how does he fit into your model?

 

You asked me for some data, I gave you some. Why are you cherry pickin Encarnacion tho?

 

20M AAV last offseason doesn't seem like a low number for a guy in his mid 30's. If he was 30 last offseason (JD's current age), he would have most likely gotten a 5 - 7 year deal at more money.

[Bellhorn04]

You asked me for some data, I gave you some. Why are you cherry pickin Encarnacion tho?

 

20M AAV last offseason doesn't seem like a low number for a guy in his mid 30's. If he was 30 last offseason (JD's current age), he would have most likely gotten a 5 - 7 year deal at more money.

 

You made the statement that players with high offensive output typically get paid more.

 

I don't think there's anything to base that on. I think the paradigm has changed and it's reflected in a guy like Heyward getting $184 million.

[notin]

Chris Davis: 7/161 (15.1 WAR before new deal 11-15)

Brandon Belt: 5/72 (11.6 WAR before new deal 11-15 and 2 years younger)

 

Since then, Davis has had 3 WAR and Belt has had 6.6 WAR. The O's were paying a premium for Davis' long ball.

 

Belt was not a free agent and signed a deal for less than he would have had he gone through free agency, just like Pedroia did.

[mvp 78]

You made the statement that players with high offensive output typically get paid more.

 

I don't think there's anything to base that on. I think the paradigm has changed and it's reflected in a guy like Heyward getting $184 million.

 

But Heyward was a guy with a 20 OWAR season? He was no slouch. He didn't go into FA with a noodle bat.

[Bellhorn04]

But Heyward was a guy with a 20 OWAR season? He was no slouch. He didn't go into FA with a noodle bat.

 

Not a noodle bat, no. But about half his value came from defense.

[moonslav59]

If the bidding gets too high for JD, I still think we may have missed an opportunity to get a slugger and improve our infield defense by signing Moustakas and moving Devers to 1B/DH.

 

As few bidders there seem to be for JD, I'm not sure anyone is looking seriously at Moose.

 

The Moreland signing probably put an end to any 3B searches.

[Kimmi]

I have said before and I’ll say again, Pedroia’s contract was a steal. He signed for less than half the guarantee Cano got. Pedroia valued years over AAV and valued stability in Boston over seeking paydays elsewhere. Yes, the back end of the deal is looking dicey, but he’s been worth every penny of the contract already and anything he gives beyond now is gravy. He’d have gotten near $20 mil per annum if he signed as a FA.

 

As much as I am opposed to long term deals, I very much liked Pedroia's contract. Saying it was a 'steal' might be a bit much (Pedroia certainly did not get hosed in the deal), but IMO, it was a very good deal for the Sox.

 

I would do that deal all over again in a heartbeat.

[Kimmi]

If the bidding gets too high for JD, I still think we may have missed an opportunity to get a slugger and improve our infield defense by signing Moustakas and moving Devers to 1B/DH.

 

As few bidders there seem to be for JD, I'm not sure anyone is looking seriously at Moose.

 

The Moreland signing probably put an end to any 3B searches.

 

I was just reading that JD is willing to wait into spring training to sign because he thinks he is worth 6 years @ $30 mil plus per year. His demands are still unrealistic, and it doesn't seem like he's willing to budge. That might just be posturing, but I am getting to the point where I'm ready to move on from him.

[Kimmi]

Rob Bradford

‏Verified account @bradfo

6m6 minutes ago

 

Dustin Pedroia just told @Bradfo_Sho he is eyeing being ready for Opening Day.

 

That's probably a bit unrealistic, but perhaps Pedroia will be back sooner than expected.

 

I wouldn't count him out.

[moonslav59]

As much as I am opposed to long term deals, I very much liked Pedroia's contract. Saying it was a 'steal' might be a bit much (Pedroia certainly did not get hosed in the deal), but IMO, it was a very good deal for the Sox.

 

I would do that deal all over again in a heartbeat.

 

If Pedey was a FA at the time of the signing, coming off a total 17.5 WAR over his previous 3 seasons, he'd have gotten significantly more than $14M x 8. I still think it was a steal when compared to the market.

 

[moonslav59]

I was just reading that JD is willing to wait into spring training to sign because he thinks he is worth 6 years @ $30 mil plus per year. His demands are still unrealistic, and it doesn't seem like he's willing to budge. That might just be posturing, but I am getting to the point where I'm ready to move on from him.

 

He won't even get $30M x 4 or 5 years, let alone 6.

 

To me, these types of demands or "leaks" make it less likely anyone new enters the bidding and more likely we eventually set a timeline and walk away, if needed.

[notin]

If the bidding gets too high for JD, I still think we may have missed an opportunity to get a slugger and improve our infield defense by signing Moustakas and moving Devers to 1B/DH.

 

As few bidders there seem to be for JD, I'm not sure anyone is looking seriously at Moose.

 

The Moreland signing probably put an end to any 3B searches.

 

Moreland signed basically the same contract as Chris Young and Johnny Gomes, neither of whom were brought in to start.

 

Moustakas is being terribly ignored. Ditto Lucroy. And also Logan Morrison, whose late 2016 makes his 2017 look more legitimate. And even when he was not much of a hitter, he always seems to have hit well at Fenway...

[moonslav59]

Moreland signed basically the same contract as Chris Young and Johnny Gomes, neither of whom were brought in to start.

 

Moustakas is being terribly ignored. Ditto Lucroy. And also Logan Morrison, whose late 2016 makes his 2017 look more legitimate. And even when he was not much of a hitter, he always seems to have hit well at Fenway...

 

If we are really looking at JD as a DH, then maybe plan B could still be...

 

Logan Morrison as a DH

 

Moustakas at 3B & move Devers to DH.