A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[harmony]

If January is the new December, I guess we should see dave start to saddle up here soon.

The Detroit Tigers signed Prince Fielder to a nine-year, $214 million contract on January 26, 2012.

 

Dave Dombrowski was the general manager of the Tigers and Scott Boras was the agent for Fielder.

 

Some say Boras went above Dombrowski's head to Detroit owner Mike Illitch:

 

https://www.sbnation.com/2012/1/25/2732532/prince-fielder-scott-boras-detroit-tigers

 

Here is an Over the Monster piece that appeared a month before the David Price signing:

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2015/11/9/9676776/dave-dombrowski-john-henry-red-sox-free-agency-trades

Edited December 27, 2017 by harmony

[moonslav59]

The Detroit Tigers signed Prince Fielder to a nine-year, $214 million contract on January 26, 2012.

 

Dave Dombrowski was the general manager of the Tigers and Scott Boras was the agent for Fielder.

 

Some say Boras went above Dombrowski's head to Detroit owner Mike Illitch:

 

https://www.sbnation.com/2012/1/25/2732532/prince-fielder-scott-boras-detroit-tigers

 

Here is an Over the Monster piece that appeared a month before the David Price signing:

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2015/11/9/9676776/dave-dombrowski-john-henry-red-sox-free-agency-trades

 

Interesting.

 

Thanks for the links.

[moonslav59]

What major alternative to signing JD Martinez do we have?

 

Sign a big-named pitcher? Darvish or Arrieta

 

Sign Moustakas and move Devers to DH? Nope.

 

Sign Lorenzo Cain and trade JBJ for Salazar? Nope.

 

Sign Cobb or Lynn plus Nunez? Hmmm...

 

To me, it's JD or Cobb & Nunez.

 

 

[Behindenemylines]

The FA market has been slow to get going. I still think Martinez is DD main target. I think January is going to be crazy! Something still may happen with Hanley? If JD doesn’t happen does Nunez return? I don’t think the Sox go to spring training as is.

[moonslav59]

The FA market has been slow to get going. I still think Martinez is DD main target. I think January is going to be crazy! Something still may happen with Hanley? If JD doesn’t happen does Nunez return? I don’t think the Sox go to spring training as is.

 

I'd say, if we don't sign JD, we'll go for a solid pitcher.

[Larry Cook]

If dave could find a sucker to take hanley off our hands, I am confident he would pull the trigger on JD very quickly!

 

However since no sucker exists, can we please pass on JD and sign a quality starter and reliever?

[jacksonianmarch]

What major alternative to signing JD Martinez do we have?

 

Sign a big-named pitcher? Darvish or Arrieta

 

Sign Moustakas and move Devers to DH? Nope.

 

Sign Lorenzo Cain and trade JBJ for Salazar? Nope.

 

Sign Cobb or Lynn plus Nunez? Hmmm...

 

To me, it's JD or Cobb & Nunez.

 

 

 

Cobb is a disaster waiting to happen. Please sign him or Lynn, please

[notin]

If dave could find a sucker to take hanley off our hands, I am confident he would pull the trigger on JD very quickly!

 

However since no sucker exists, can we please pass on JD and sign a quality starter and reliever?

 

Any player the Sox can deal Hanley Ramirez for you probably don't want to see on the Sox...

[notin]

I'd say, if we don't sign JD, we'll go for a solid pitcher.

 

 

Possible. And likely, assuming Darvish or the declining Arrieta are still unsigned.

 

Also possible there is an "outside the box" solution we have not thought of. Like signing Wade Davis and trading Kimbrel.

 

The big issue is obvious. Teams interested in Kimbrel are clearly trying to win immediately and therefore less likely to give up the pitcher or hitter the Sox want, so it could wind up as a complicated three team scenario.

 

Or the Sox could sign Davis and just have a monster bullpen. While Davis undoubtedly wants a closing job, if he was paid closer money, he might not mind doing set up work for one season and assuming the closer role after Kimbrel leaves via free agency.

 

In some respects, this is a lot smarter than signing a starter. Closers and relievers typically hold their value longer than starters as pitchers enter their 30s...

[Carpin]

Possible. And likely, assuming Darvish or the declining Arrieta are still unsigned.

 

Also possible there is an "outside the box" solution we have not thought of. Like signing Wade Davis and trading Kimbrel.

 

The big issue is obvious. Teams interested in Kimbrel are clearly trying to win immediately and therefore less likely to give up the pitcher or hitter the Sox want, so it could wind up as a complicated three team scenario.

 

Or the Sox could sign Davis and just have a monster bullpen. While Davis undoubtedly wants a closing job, if he was paid closer money, he might not mind doing set up work for one season and assuming the closer role after Kimbrel leaves via free agency.

 

In some respects, this is a lot smarter than signing a starter. Closers and relievers typically hold their value longer than starters as pitchers enter their 30s...

 

A little late, the Rockies just signed Wade for a massive 3 yr / 52 Millions contract, surprised for the amount paid for him

[Bellhorn04]

A little late, the Rockies just signed Wade for a massive 3 yr / 52 Millions contract, surprised for the amount paid for him

 

Plus a vesting option that could make it 4 yrs / 66 million.

 

The guaranteed AAV of 17.33 is a record for relievers, higher than Chapman's 17.2.

[moonslav59]

Any player the Sox can deal Hanley Ramirez for you probably don't want to see on the Sox...

 

I think a bag of balls would do nicely. HRam plus $12-15M for a low single A prospect with little upside is what I'm thinking.

[moonslav59]

Possible. And likely, assuming Darvish or the declining Arrieta are still unsigned.

 

Also possible there is an "outside the box" solution we have not thought of. Like signing Wade Davis and trading Kimbrel.

 

The big issue is obvious. Teams interested in Kimbrel are clearly trying to win immediately and therefore less likely to give up the pitcher or hitter the Sox want, so it could wind up as a complicated three team scenario.

 

Or the Sox could sign Davis and just have a monster bullpen. While Davis undoubtedly wants a closing job, if he was paid closer money, he might not mind doing set up work for one season and assuming the closer role after Kimbrel leaves via free agency.

 

In some respects, this is a lot smarter than signing a starter. Closers and relievers typically hold their value longer than starters as pitchers enter their 30s...

 

I thought you believed the closer role was vastly over-rated.

[oldtimer]

Possible. And likely, assuming Darvish or the declining Arrieta are still unsigned.

 

Also possible there is an "outside the box" solution we have not thought of. Like signing Wade Davis and trading Kimbrel.

 

The big issue is obvious. Teams interested in Kimbrel are clearly trying to win immediately and therefore less likely to give up the pitcher or hitter the Sox want, so it could wind up as a complicated three team scenario.

 

Or the Sox could sign Davis and just have a monster bullpen. While Davis undoubtedly wants a closing job, if he was paid closer money, he might not mind doing set up work for one season and assuming the closer role after Kimbrel leaves via free agency.

 

In some respects, this is a lot smarter than signing a starter. Closers and relievers typically hold their value longer than starters as pitchers enter their 30s...

 

Too late with Wade Davis going to the Rockies

[a700hitter]

I think a bag of balls would do nicely. HRam plus $12-15M for a low single A prospect with little upside is what I'm thinking.

I'm in.

[Larry Cook]

Lefty reliever Watson is still available to sign!

[Kimmi]

A little late, the Rockies just signed Wade for a massive 3 yr / 52 Millions contract, surprised for the amount paid for him

 

That is just insane. I have felt that spending big money or prospects on relievers is crazy. There are much better ways for teams to use their resources. From what I've been reading, the Rockies just improved their WAR total by a little more than ONE win with this signing. Insane.

[Kimmi]

I thought you believed the closer role was vastly over-rated.

 

It is overrated. Having a strong bullpen is not overrated. However, spending top dollar to build that strong bullpen is not the way to go.

[jacksonianmarch]

They had a closer who locked thing down. They moved onto someone better. They paid the price for elite closing. Davis will allow them to outperform their pythag. I still think advanced metrics don’t account for a 9th inning guy. Not everyone can do it. Those that do it at an elite level are typically on teams that outperform their pythag

[Bellhorn04]

They had a closer who locked thing down. They moved onto someone better. They paid the price for elite closing. Davis will allow them to outperform their pythag. I still think advanced metrics don’t account for a 9th inning guy. Not everyone can do it. Those that do it at an elite level are typically on teams that outperform their pythag

 

Interesting theory. If you could back that up with a research study they might have to hire you at FanGraphs!

[moonslav59]

The Astros had a sucky pen, so maybe the trend will start to reverse itself as teams strive to be like the last winner.

[notin]

They had a closer who locked thing down. They moved onto someone better. They paid the price for elite closing. Davis will allow them to outperform their pythag. I still think advanced metrics don’t account for a 9th inning guy. Not everyone can do it. Those that do it at an elite level are typically on teams that outperform their pythag

 

MLB Network was talking about this today. Basically the point was how many winning teams used multiple closers over the course of the season. An expensive lockdown closer, as I have been saying for years, is really a waste of resources and teams are better off sharing the wealth to get multiple quality arms in the bullpen. The Rockies have spent over $100mill on their bullpen this off-season alone, but most teams with an expensive closer don't spend so much.

 

Teams like the Royals and Cardinals are prime examples of how a complete bullpen is better. The 2011 Cardinals used at least 5 different closers and didn't even have a great rotation. (Wainwright missed the entire season and a 36yo Chris Carpenter lead their staff with a decent 11-9 3.45 season, but that's hardly ace caliber stuff. The Royals rotation was lead by Edinson Volquez when they won a WS title.)

 

I think more pitchers are capable of handling the closer role than many realize, but typically the unestablished guys get virtually no leeway with the role. I see guys removed from the closer role after 1 or 2 bad outings.

[notin]

It is overrated. Having a strong bullpen is not overrated. However, spending top dollar to build that strong bullpen is not the way to go.

 

Depends on how it is done.

 

Spending heavily on one arm who is going to pitch only 60-70 IP of the 500-600IP that the bullpen will handle is certainly a bad way to go. That's really no different that having one hitter in the lineup and assuming he will handle all the offense...

[notin]

Today's crazy trade proposal that will never happen.

 

Hanley Ramirez (1yr / $22mill plus option) and Jackie Bradley (3 arb years) for Jeff Samardzija (3 yrs $54mill) and Brandon Belt (4 yrs $64mill)

 

Samardzija is actually a pretty good pitcher victimized by a horrific defense last year. He still ranked top 15 in FIP and xFIP (ok he was 16th in xFIP) in all of MLB. His value of 3.8 fWAR is impressive. While he had an ERA over 4.40 in the NL, if he had Boston's defense behind him, it would have been closer to 3.90 (assuming a lot of distributive normalcy). Of course that defense would take a bit of a hit without Bradley. Still, Samradzija might have been one of the most underrated pitchers last year. (Safe bet the Giants are somewhat aware of this.)

 

Belt's big problem to me is his history of concussions. If that can be mitigated by DHing him, it could work out quite well. While he has never hit more than 18HRs in a season, bear in mind he is completely surpressed by his home park. 64 of his 98 career HRs were hit elsewhere in only 20 more PAs.

 

The straight up Belt/Bradley proposals have been thrown around before. If Belt can DH, it might not be so bad. That does mean the Sox have to drop Hanley off the roster, which is certainly something Dombrowski is not hesitant to do, judging by history. The return could be sweetened a little to offset the health concerns with a bullpen arm (possibly a lefty?) or a 2B or a prospect, assuming the Giants have one.

 

That still leaves a void in the rotation and the bullpen. SF doesn't have much else there, leaving free agency as an option. One name that might b worth a gamble is Chris Tillman.

 

Bradley would be a terrific pickup for the defensively weak Giants. Hanley might not be so much on their minds, although unloading $118mill in salary might make taking back his $22mill a bit more palatable.

[harmony]

Today's crazy trade proposal that will never happen.

 

Hanley Ramirez (1yr / $22mill plus option) and Jackie Bradley (3 arb years) for Jeff Samardzija (3 yrs $54mill) and Brandon Belt (4 yrs $64mill)

 

Samardzija is actually a pretty good pitcher victimized by a horrific defense last year. He still ranked top 15 in FIP and xFIP (ok he was 16th in xFIP) in all of MLB. His value of 3.8 fWAR is impressive. While he had an ERA over 4.40 in the NL, if he had Boston's defense behind him, it would have been closer to 3.90 (assuming a lot of distributive normalcy). Of course that defense would take a bit of a hit without Bradley. Still, Samradzija might have been one of the most underrated pitchers last year. (Safe bet the Giants are somewhat aware of this.)

 

Belt's big problem to me is his history of concussions. If that can be mitigated by DHing him, it could work out quite well. While he has never hit more than 18HRs in a season, bear in mind he is completely surpressed by his home park. 64 of his 98 career HRs were hit elsewhere in only 20 more PAs.

 

The straight up Belt/Bradley proposals have been thrown around before. If Belt can DH, it might not be so bad. That does mean the Sox have to drop Hanley off the roster, which is certainly something Dombrowski is not hesitant to do, judging by history. The return could be sweetened a little to offset the health concerns with a bullpen arm (possibly a lefty?) or a 2B or a prospect, assuming the Giants have one.

 

That still leaves a void in the rotation and the bullpen. SF doesn't have much else there, leaving free agency as an option. One name that might b worth a gamble is Chris Tillman.

 

Bradley would be a terrific pickup for the defensively weak Giants. Hanley might not be so much on their minds, although unloading $118mill in salary might make taking back his $22mill a bit more palatable.

As I wrote last night on a Yankee forum:

FWIW, this year San Francisco righthander Jeff Samardzija finished 15th among qualified starters in fWAR, one place ahead of righthander Yu Darvish:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0

 

The nearly 33-year-old Samardzija has three years and $57.5 million remaining on his contract while MLB Trade Rumors projects Darvish, who turns 32 in August, with a six-year, $160 contract on the free agent market:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

 

Steamer projects 2018 WAR of 3.5 in 202 innings for Samardzija and 3.6 in 179 innings for Darvish:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3254&position=P

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13074&position=P

http://www.nyyfansforum.com/showthread.php/137667-The-197M-thread./page6

 

I doubt the San Francisco Giants will trade their core players, especially in a deal involving Hanley Ramirez.

 

On the Yankee forum I've proposed a trade of Jacoby Ellsbury, Adam Warren and either Billy McKinney or Jake Cave for Mark Melancon and ... Pablo Sandoval! The Giants should insist on two years of Aaron Hicks instead of six years of either McKinney or Cave.

[notin]

Samardzija does seem like a reach, but BRadley is a good pickup for them. At least Fangraphs, who ranked him #46 in trade value, would agree.

 

As for Hanley, probably only if the Sox took back Hunter Pence. Pence is still a decent outfielder, but his hitting has dropped precipitously. Steamer projects him at 1.4 fWAR next season and Hanley at 1.0 fWAR. Regardless, if Pence's only value is defense, he is an unlikely target for the Sox crowded outfield. Especially since any trade of Bradley is likely precipitated by signing JD Martinez.

 

But if the Sox do sign Martinez, Bradley for Belt (plus?) does become a possibility. And if it happens, the Sox might release Hanley...

[Kimmi]

They had a closer who locked thing down. They moved onto someone better. They paid the price for elite closing. Davis will allow them to outperform their pythag. I still think advanced metrics don’t account for a 9th inning guy. Not everyone can do it. Those that do it at an elite level are typically on teams that outperform their pythag

 

Yeah, I think you're making stuff up here.

[moonslav59]

No way I trade JBJ for a DH with less power than HRam, but if you add HRam and get back Samardzija, I'd do it. I'd even throw in Travis and Holt.

[harmony]

No way I trade JBJ for a DH with less power than HRam, but if you add HRam and get back Samardzija, I'd do it. I'd even throw in Travis and Holt.

Think of it as three years of Jackie Bradley Jr. with a projected 2018 salary of $5.9 million and a Steamer projected 2018 WAR of 3.0 for three years of Jeff Samardzija at $57.5 million and a Steamer projected 2018 WAR of 3.5.

 

Then think of one year of Hanley Ramirez at $22 million with a Steamer projected 2018 WAR of 1.0 (and the 2019 option vesting) for four years of Brandon Belt at $64 million with a Steamer projected 2018 WAR of 3.1.

 

I can't see the Giants making that deal.

[moonslav59]

Think of it as three years of Jackie Bradley Jr. with a projected 2018 salary of $5.9 million and a Steamer projected 2018 WAR of 3.0 for three years of Jeff Samardzija at $57.5 million and a Steamer projected 2018 WAR of 3.5.

 

Then think of one year of Hanley Ramirez at $22 million with a Steamer projected 2018 WAR of 1.0 (and the 2019 option vesting) for four years of Brandon Belt at $64 million with a Steamer projected 2018 WAR of 3.1.

 

I can't see the Giants making that deal.

 

Apparently the vesting option does not transfer to a team HRam would be traded to, so that's a plus for the Giants.

 

The Giants save money and get the OF'er they want.

 

You act like JBJ cancels out JS, but the money saved is a huge plus that goes a long way at evening up the HRam for Belt part you broke it down into.