A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

See? We don't disagree on everything.

 

I agree with you on a lot of things. We just quibble about WAR and such.

[moonslav59]

Another available name no one mentions is Andrew McCutchen...

 

Too scary.

 

Plays the wrong position.

 

Likely to cost too much, and we don't have top prospects anyways.

[Larry Cook]

If the Sox fail to acquire Martinez, or Abreu....is this offseason a bust?

 

We are not on the list of teams that Stanton would approve a trade to, so he is out of the running.

 

I am not sure I want them to make a move, just to make a move. I'd like to have Stanton or Abreu, but at what cost?.....and are JD Martinez and Hosmer really worth it, or are they the best of a bad group of FA's?

 

No we need more pitching! There are some decent arms out there and desperate dave’s Job is to sign a starter and two relievers.

[Kimmi]

No we need more pitching! There are some decent arms out there and desperate dave’s Job is to sign a starter and two relievers.

 

Even with the Yankees adding Stanton, I'd prefer to focus on adding a #2/3 starter over trying to add a big bat. I think our offense will be fine. We won't match the Yankees offensively, but I prefer strong pitching, mediocre offense than the other way around.

[sk7326]

JBJ was an awesome defender very early.

 

My point was that the "not close" in AA statement was incorrect.

 

Except that is not obvious. There is a small gap in OPS sure ... but in the minors (to a certain degree) who cares? It's developmental, winning is a secondary goal ... and we don't know what a kid actually has to do to have passed the level. Moncada and Benintendi's OPS numbers were also close - but one was much, much more major league ready than the other.

[OH FOY]

How many HRS Yanks hit last year? Now add at 40 to that at least. Probably hit 10 in Fenway alone....bunting. I understand Judge should not hit 50 again, but they really added some power.

Stanton, Judge, Sanchez. Wow!

Edited December 9, 2017 by OH FOY!

[S5Dewey]

Since this is, after all, the "Realistic" thread....

 

Well, the past few days certainly have taken an ugly turn for the Sox fans. I was semi-enthused when Otani signed on the west coast. At least we wouldn't be facing him 19 times a year. However, the Yankees acquiring Stanton makes them an odds-on favorite to win the ALE and leaves the Sox playing for a wild card spot.

 

Without establishing blame on prior GM's, not getting Stanton is the price the team is paying for burning up our FA's to acquire Kimbrel, Sale, et. al., along with the money spent signing Pablo, Moncada, and to a lesser degree, Hanley. At least Hanley is offering something in exchange for his pay. And to be honest, I'd still rather have what 'we' currently have than having Stanton and having to live with what we would have had if the Sox trades hadn't been made. That would have been ugly.

 

IMHO the Yankees signing of Stanton will 'cost' the Sox 2-3 wins/year and 2-3 wins is often the difference between making the playoffs and playing golf in October. It's now incumbent on DD to stay the course with the intent of winning 90+ games in 2018 - although it just became a little harder - and get that WC spot because as we know, once the playoffs start 'anything can happen'.

[moonslav59]

Except that is not obvious. There is a small gap in OPS sure ... but in the minors (to a certain degree) who cares? It's developmental, winning is a secondary goal ... and we don't know what a kid actually has to do to have passed the level. Moncada and Benintendi's OPS numbers were also close - but one was much, much more major league ready than the other.

 

Yea, based on defense only- and that's the point I was making about JBJ vs Beni in AA.

 

The only reason Beni can now be viewed as "more ML ready" offensively than Moncada was is by looking at hindsight data.

 

True, Moncada's K rate was obscene, even in the minors, but I seriously doubt you'll find any scout that felt Beni was more ML ready offensively than Moncada before their call-ups. Beni was more ML ready because of bhis defense, and he was called up because of the black hole we had in LF and us getting stiffed on the planned Carlos Beltran trade.

[moonslav59]

I'd still rather have what 'we' currently have than having Stanton and having to live with what we would have had if the Sox trades hadn't been made. That would have been ugly.

 

It's not our lack of current prospects that kept us from getting Stanton. We could have had everybody we have now plus Stanton, if only GS put us on his list of teams he's willing to play for.

 

The ball is clearly in DD's court now, and he has no pieces to play (top prospects) anymore, except for money. Let's hope he spends it better than the Ben and Theo near his end in Boston.

 

[Larry Cook]

Even with the Yankees adding Stanton, I'd prefer to focus on adding a #2/3 starter over trying to add a big bat. I think our offense will be fine. We won't match the Yankees offensively, but I prefer strong pitching, mediocre offense than the other way around.

 

There is no difference in the win loss record if the Yankees win a game 8 to 6 or 11 to 6. With better pitching, we can beat the stacked Yankees lineup 5 to 4. But we need more pitching.

[moonslav59]

There is no difference in the win loss record if the Yankees win a game 8 to 6 or 11 to 6. With better pitching, we can beat the stacked Yankees lineup 5 to 4. But we need more pitching.

 

Our pitching was our biggest strength this year. I do think we need to add to it, but the clean-up slot is our highest priority, and it was even before the Yanks added GS.

[Bellhorn04]

There is no difference in the win loss record if the Yankees win a game 8 to 6 or 11 to 6. With better pitching, we can beat the stacked Yankees lineup 5 to 4. But we need more pitching.

 

A hitter like Stanton will help the Yanks win some low scoring games, too, you do realize that? He's a 6-8 WAR player if he stays healthy. A 6-8 WAR player does make a pretty big difference in the W-L record.

[notin]

Our pitching was our biggest strength this year. I do think we need to add to it, but the clean-up slot is our highest priority, and it was even before the Yanks added GS.

 

Technically we could be adding a healthier Price.

 

Going all in for Darvish or Arrieta might help short term. But at some point the Sox would have way too much tied up in Price and whoever, and Stanton will still be young enough to do damage.

 

DD did miss out on Chatwood, who might have been the sneakers pitching arm available. ...

[notin]

There is no difference in the win loss record if the Yankees win a game 8 to 6 or 11 to 6. With better pitching, we can beat the stacked Yankees lineup 5 to 4. But we need more pitching.

 

There is a difference between losing 6-5 and winning 8-6..

[vjcsmoke]

Yeah Stanton had a short list of teams he was willing to waive his NTC for, the Red Sox were not on that list. Stantan had also previously turned down two different trade offers that the Marlins accepted already. He was clearly holding out for... the damn Yankees to make an offer. Unfortunately this is the reality, Yankees still get first shot at premier player targets in most cases.

[sk7326]

Yea, based on defense only- and that's the point I was making about JBJ vs Beni in AA.

 

The only reason Beni can now be viewed as "more ML ready" offensively than Moncada was is by looking at hindsight data.

 

True, Moncada's K rate was obscene, even in the minors, but I seriously doubt you'll find any scout that felt Beni was more ML ready offensively than Moncada before their call-ups. Beni was more ML ready because of bhis defense, and he was called up because of the black hole we had in LF and us getting stiffed on the planned Carlos Beltran trade.

 

Fwiw, at minimum Keith Law pointed it out at Moncada's callup ... a lot of the scouting stuff I read saw a guy whose natural athleticism compensated for a lot of lacking craft which played at AA enough

[moonslav59]

Technically we could be adding a healthier Price.

 

Going all in for Darvish or Arrieta might help short term. But at some point the Sox would have way too much tied up in Price and whoever, and Stanton will still be young enough to do damage.

 

DD did miss out on Chatwood, who might have been the sneakers pitching arm available. ...

 

Yes, adding a healthy and strong Price could be huge. I also think several of our hitters will have upticks next season after all of them had down ticks this year. Smith's return could be big. Thornburg also. The loss of ERod should be more than compensated for by all of the above.

 

That still leaves a gaping hole in the clean-up slot.

 

If we bring Moreland back or even worse, sign Hosmer, I'll vomit on the spot.

 

[Nick]

Look on the bright side, we've kept all of our farm hands.

 

Maybe Owens will now pitch to his potential. Because we all know that Sox prospects all pan out. Hang onto them tight.

[Spudboy]

Look on the bright side, we've kept all of our farm hands.

 

Maybe Owens will now pitch to his potential. Because we all know that Sox prospects all pan out. Hang onto them tight.

 

Owens was claimed by Arizona.

[moonslav59]

It only took single A prospects to get GS. Plus, the Marlins took Castro off the Yankees hands and will pay $30M, if GS does not opt out in 3 years.

 

I'm all for rebuilding the farm, but I'd have been happy to trade low prospects for GS. I'd have paid his whole contract and been able to give even less.

 

Hell, we could have traded Castillo.

[Spudboy]

It only took single A prospects to get GS. Plus, the Marlins took Castro off the Yankees hands and will pay $30M, if GS does not opt out in 3 years.

 

I'm all for rebuilding the farm, but I'd have been happy to trade low prospects for GS. I'd have paid his whole contract and been able to give even less.

 

Hell, we could have traded Castillo.

 

But he did not want to play for Boston.

 

I can't wait for the inevitable "warm' greeting Stanton will receive when stepping into the box at Fenway.

 

Lol.

[moonslav59]

I know he didn't want to play here.

 

We had a zero percent chance of getting him.

 

I was responding to the point made that "at least we still have our farm hands" comment.

 

I'd rather have GS than 2 single A farm hands.

 

It's no consolation.

[Larry Cook]

How do we feel about signing goins as our starting 2nd baseman until pedroia is healthy?

 

He had a decent year north of the border and can also play short.

[Nick]

I know he didn't want to play here.

 

We had a zero percent chance of getting him.

 

I was responding to the point made that "at least we still have our farm hands" comment.

 

I'd rather have GS than 2 single A farm hands.

 

It's no consolation.

 

My post was for smart Sox fans only. If you have to be told 'sarcasm', well it's no fun. Yes I'm aware that Owens was removed from our 40 man roster. Based on % of failures to reach major league, it's always a better bet to trade young ones for known talent.

 

DD apparently is not as bold as many of you think. It doesn't take much to skill to give away Henry's money to a free agent, Martinez.

Edited December 9, 2017 by Nick

[Kimmi]

There is no difference in the win loss record if the Yankees win a game 8 to 6 or 11 to 6. With better pitching, we can beat the stacked Yankees lineup 5 to 4. But we need more pitching.

 

If our guys are healthy, our pitching staff will be tough to beat. But Price is a big question mark, and so is ERod. That's what concerns me. I'd feel a lot better adding another solid starter.

 

Personally, I think our offense will largely take care of itself.

[Kimmi]

Our pitching was our biggest strength this year. I do think we need to add to it, but the clean-up slot is our highest priority, and it was even before the Yanks added GS.

 

That depends on whether Price is healthy or not. That is what concerns me.

[Kimmi]

I know he didn't want to play here.

 

We had a zero percent chance of getting him.

 

I was responding to the point made that "at least we still have our farm hands" comment.

 

I'd rather have GS than 2 single A farm hands.

 

It's no consolation.

 

What I read is that the one of the prospects the Yankees traded is comparable to our #1 prospect. In other words, we could not have gotten him for 2 single A farm hands.

[Kimmi]

How do we feel about signing goins as our starting 2nd baseman until pedroia is healthy?

 

He had a decent year north of the border and can also play short.

 

We could trade for Starlin Castro...

[Northern Star]

I know he didn't want to play here.

 

We had a zero percent chance of getting him.

 

I was responding to the point made that "at least we still have our farm hands" comment.

 

I'd rather have GS than 2 single A farm hands.

 

It's no consolation.

 

I'm glad we didn't get Stanton, not at the price the Yankees paid in dollars. He's in his prime now, but if he doesn't opt out he's sure to decline, and that contract is backloaded.

[harmony]

We could trade for Starlin Castro...

The Red Sox could have competition for Starlin Castro:

 

 

Seattle's newly acquired Dee Gordon might be nominally available.

 

How about Rick Porcello and Jackie Bradley Jr. for Dee Gordon and lefty reliever Marc Rzepczynski?

 

Masslive columnist Christopher Smith today suggested the Red Sox trade Porcello to clear payroll space:

 

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/12/how_boston_red_sox_should_resp.html#incart_river_index

 

A Gold Glove winner at second base, Gordon could fill in for Dustin Pedroia before testing his defensive skills as Bradley's replacement in center field.

 

Gordon is owed $38 million over the next three years with a team option for a fourth year. Bradley, who is only one year younger than Gordon, remains under team control for three years at at a total cost of, say, at least $24 million (including a projected 2018 salary of $5.9 million). Gordon has posted 9.1 fWAR over the past three seasons (with a suspension-shortened 2016), including 3.3 fWAR this year. Bradley has posted 9.8 fWAR over the past three seasons, including 2.3 fWAR this year.

 

Porcello has two years and $42 million remaining on his contract while Rzepczynski has one year and $5.5 million left on his pact.

 

After signing a five-year, $50 million extension, Gordon would count only $10 million for luxury tax purposes, meaning the Red Sox could assume $15.5 million, while shedding about $26.3 million, for the 2018 calculation. That frees up money to pursue free agents.

 

OK, the proposal is not realistic ... but I was bored.

Edited December 10, 2017 by harmony